ISO 9001 certification in the American Continent: a statistical analysis and modelling

International Journal of Production Research ISSN: 0020-7543 (Print) 1366-588X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tprs20 ISO 9001 certification in the American Continent: a statistical analysis and modelling Eduardo Gomes Salgado, Luiz Alberto Beijo, Paulo Sampaio, Carlos Henrique Pereira Mello & Pedro Saraiva To cite this article: Eduardo Gomes Salgado, Luiz Alberto Beijo, Paulo Sampaio, Carlos Henrique Pereira Mello & Pedro Saraiva (2015): ISO 9001 certification in the American Continent: a statistical analysis and modelling, International Journal of Production Research, DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2015.1109719 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2015.1109719 Published online: 13 Nov 2015. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 3 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalinformation?journalcode=tprs20 Download by: [b-on: Biblioteca do conhecimento online UMinho] Date: 16 November 2015, At: 09:31

International Journal of Production Research, 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2015.1109719 ISO 9001 certification in the American Continent: a statistical analysis and modelling Eduardo Gomes Salgado a *, Luiz Alberto Beijo a, Paulo Sampaio b, Carlos Henrique Pereira Mello c and Pedro Saraiva d a Exact Science Institute, Federal University of Alfenas, Alfenas, Brazil; b Systems and Production Department, School of Engineering, University of Minho, Campus Gualtar, Braga, Portugal; c Production Engineering and Management Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá, Brazil; d Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Chemical Engineering Department, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal (Received 14 October 2014; accepted 10 October 2015) The ISO 9001 standard is considered as an effective tool to support a quality management system (QMS). A steady growth in the number of ISO 9001 issued certificates is observed worldwide, confirming the interest of companies in this approach. However, information regarding this behaviour over time in the American Continent is scarce. This paper presents a set of qualitative and quantitative analyses related to the ISO 9001 certification (globally and at the country level of the Americas), the use of this standard in countries that were part of the ISO Survey 2011 and modelling the ISO 9001 certification for American countries, in order to characterise through mathematical models, the evolution of the certification process and to identify factors that influence the ISO 9001 issued certificates in the various countries analysed. Based on the work developed, a positive relationship was found between the number of issued certificates in each country per 1000 inhabitants and the indicators of economic development (Gross National Income Per Capita). It is determined that the total reserves of a country is an economic variable that directly affects the number of issued certificates, a finding not observed in other forecasting models. Keywords: ISO 9001 certification; quality management systems; global trends; American Continent; forecasting 1. Introduction The fast economic growth and the globalisation over the past two decades have been associated with a significant increase in the dissemination of international management standards in a wide range of economic activities, particularly the quality management system (QMS) based on the ISO 9001 standard. Many works carry out studies on the evolution and forecasting of ISO 9001 certification worldwide and in specific regions like Europe (Franceschini, Galetto, and Gianni 2004; Franceschini et al. 2010; Llach, Marimon, and Bernardo 2011; Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues 2011), Asia and the Middle East (Marimon, Casadesús, and Heras 2010; Al-Darrab, Gulzar, and Ali 2012). However, no studies were found comparing the progress of certification in the world and in countries of America and no forecasting studies of the certification process for American countries. A few specific works for this region can be cited, like Dowlatshahi (2011), Bello-Pintado and Merino-Diaz-de-Cerio (2013) and Kubo and Farina (2013), but these works lack the certification development for the region as a whole. It is important to analyse the ISO 9001 data for the American countries, as they represent an important region for the global economy, with increasing numbers of certifications in the past decade. North, Central and South America contribute about 8.2% of worldwide ISO 9001 certificates (ISO 2013), which is considered by the authors as an opportunity to be exploited as a source of improvements. Hence, the current study is based on the previous studies carried out by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a, 2011) and Franceschini et al. (2010). In this study, the countries were taken into account with a significant number of certifications (over 100 certificates issued in 2011), according to the study conducted by Saraiva and Duarte (2003). Given the above, the following questions served as motivation for this research: Is there a relationship between the number of certified companies per country and its competitiveness? Is there a relationship between the export volume per country and its number of certified companies? Are there any relationships between economic development indicators and the corresponding number of ISO 9001 certified companies in a given country? What is the evolution since 1993 of ISO 9001 certification in various countries? What are the market evolution perspectives? Is it possible to define a model to characterise the evolution of ISO 9001 certification, since 2003, for American countries with more than 100 certificates issued in 2011? What factors influence the number of certified companies in the various countries? *Corresponding author. Email: egsalgado@yahoo.com.br 2015 Taylor & Francis

2 E.G. Salgado et al. Therefore, this paper aims to: present the evolution of ISO 9001 certification in various countries since 1993; analyse the relationship between the number of certified companies per 1000 inhabitants in the American Continent and the countries rate of competitiveness, as well as the relationship between the number of certified companies per 1000 inhabitants and innovation and sophistication factors indicators; analyse the possible existence of a relationship between the volume of exports and the number of certified companies per 1000 inhabitants, and the relationship between indicators of economic development and the corresponding number of ISO 9001 certified companies in a particular country; identify clusters of countries according to their ISO 9001 evolution patterns; identify possible factors that influence the development and diffusion of quality management systems in the various countries of the world, as well identify models to characterise the evolution of ISO 9001 certification in the various countries of America. In general, managers and researchers are interested in analyse certification evolution, including certification withdraw, and what is influencing this phenomenon. Thus, we believe that the expected results represent a very important contribution to examining the diffusion and evolution of the ISO 9001 phenomenon, both for companies and certification bodies, and for researchers. The phenomenon also triggers the interest of national standards institutes and accreditation and certification bodies. Furthermore, the originality of this work also consists in the development of statistical models based on economic indicators, in order to characterise the ISO 9001 certification evolution for American countries, which is a pioneer work for these countries. This work is structured as follows: the Introduction section is followed by a brief Literature Review, Research Method and Results and Discussions sections. In the Results and Discussions section, an analysis of the ISO 9001 evolution is performed, considering the number of certificates issued and the number of certificates per thousand inhabitants in observed countries. The following section presents the cluster analysis performed based on the number of ISO 9001 issued certificates in American countries, considering the number of certificates issued and the number of certificates issued per thousand inhabitants in the country. Additionally, the evolution of certification in American countries is presented, including analyses of its relationship to the economic indexes, indicators of competitiveness and innovation and trends for the countries in this group. After that, the forecasting models for the clusters are presented based on the analysis of the relationship between the number of certificates issued for each country and its economic indicators, as well as the trends for these clusters. Finally, the Conclusions and suggestions for future work and references used in this work are presented. 2. Literature review The quality management standard ISO 9001, proposed by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) in 1987, represents the first international standard for the development of a quality management system, now being used by nearly 1.1 million organisations in 180 countries (ISO 2012). According to Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011), the ISO 9001 certification is considered as one of the most effective tools used today for improving quality management system. Given the strong growth of using these standards, a great interest from companies regarding this practice has been observed (Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues 2011). Aldowaisan and Youssef (2006) stated that the interest in ISO 9001 certification is increasing, and the use of this standard is no longer the privilege of multinational and large companies, it is accessible to all interested companies. With the globalisation and increasing competitiveness, it is believed that even today there is still a growing need to achieve sustainable advantage over competing organisations. Thus, QMS become a mandatory requirement, a matter of survival for a number of organisations. Furthermore, Gómez et al. (2009) state that ISO 9001 is, among the models of QMS, the most influential and most widely implemented. Since ISO 9001 gained popularity, many authors attempted to understand its effects on businesses and in the world, such as: Aggelogiannopoulos, Drosinos, and Athanasopoulos (2007), Benner and Veloso (2008), Psomas and Fotopoulos (2009), Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009b); Alolayyan et al. (2011), Saizarbitoria, Casadesús, and Marimón (2011), Talib, Rahman, and Qureshi (2011), Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011), Alonso-Almeida, Marimon, and Bernardo (2013), Salgado et al. (2014). In addition, according to Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), when large economic groups decide that their suppliers must necessarily have their quality management systems certified, an increase in the number of companies certified under the ISO 9001 occurs. The reverse effect also occurs when large economic groups decide to abandon the ISO 9001 standard, no longer requiring their suppliers to be certified, the certification abandonment rate grows considerably. Thus, we can state that the implementation of quality management systems

International Journal of Production Research 3 and their subsequent certification occurs, in many situations, because the company leading the value chain requires suppliers to be certified in order to maintain the trade relations between them. According to Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006), the evolution curve of the number of certifications over time in each country points out to a kind of saturation effect. It means that after a certain period of fast growth, a physiologic break takes place. This phenomenon can be explained by interpreting the certification process as a distinction element. When the number of certified organisations reaches a certain limit, certification loses its connotation and becomes less attractive for the remaining companies (Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi 2006). Saraiva and Duarte (2003) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a) use the ISO9001 pc indicator, which refers to the number of certificates issued by a country per 1000 inhabitants. The authors stated that there is an apparent positive relationship between the influence of ISO9001 pc and countries economic development levels. However, Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006) claim that this approach can be, at least, fairly hazardous because there is no direct correlation between the number of companies in a country and the number of its inhabitants. Alonso-Almeida, Marimon, and Bernardo (2013) concluded that different countries are at different stages concerning ISO 9001 standards evolution and diffusion. For example, countries that are more experienced in regulatory systems (like some European countries) have reached saturation of the ISO 9001 in a relatively short time. Other countries where certification according to quality standards has a shorter history are at an early stage in the diffusion process. The forecasting works of the number of certified companies analysed the following economic indicators (Franceschini et al. 2010; Llach, Marimon, and Bernardo 2011; Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues 2011): GNI (Gross National Income); GNI pc (Gross National Income per capita); ISO9001 pc (Number of certified companies per thousand inhabitants); ISO9001 t 1 (Number of certificates issued in the previous year); ISO9001 t 2 (Number of certificates issued two years before). Forecasting models, based on the economic indicator total reserves of the country, were not identified in the literature. Additionally, Franceschini et al. (2010) state that European countries are in different stages of diffusion of the ISO 9001 and can be classified, based on patterns of GNI pc, in three areas: steady growth area, saturation area and decline area. Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011) grouped the countries considering the evolution of the ISO9001 pc rate and proposed three clusters of countries, where different factors influence the cluster rate. 3. Research methodology Initially, an analysis was performed on the development of the certification worldwide, the performance of the main countries being observed, both with respect to absolute values as well as those related to the number of certificates per thousand inhabitants. Then, another analysis was performed on the results obtained by ISO 9001 certification in American countries, as they represent an important region for the global economy and have increasing numbers of certifications. For this analysis, we considered the countries with absolute values above 100 certifications in 2011. The minimum of 100 certificates was determined because it was found that below this level, the certification of quality management systems has no significant expression, which would undermine the statistical analyses performed (Saraiva and Duarte 2003; Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues 2011). In addition, the selected countries are the largest economic representations of the region. Countries that did not have enough or available data for the comparative analyses were eliminated. Moreover, the data used for this study was obtained from the following sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, www.oecd.org), World Economic Forum, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, for the period of 1993 2011. With the objective of identifying groups that presented common evolutionary characteristics, a cluster analysis was performed on the American countries that are part of the ISO Survey 2011 (ISO 2012). As many countries in the American Continent have similar economic, cultural and developmental features, blocks of countries with similar profiles (regarding factors related to ISO9001 pc ) can be formed. According to Aldenderfer and Blashfield (1984), Manly (2005) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011), a clustering method is a multivariate statistical procedure that starts with a data-set containing information about a sample of entities and attempts to reorganise these entities into relatively homogeneous groups. Cluster analysis is useful to gather similar objects by applying some measure to assess how similar or different these objects are. Usually, the similarity in terms of distance between pairs of objects is evaluated. The objects with the shortest distance between each other are more similar to one another than objects with the greatest distance. This similarity

4 E.G. Salgado et al. measure is usually provided by the Euclidean distance. The set of variables chosen must describe the similarity between objects in terms relevant to the research problem. The analysis in terms of average certificates per 1000 inhabitants between 2003 and 2011 (ISO9001 pc average value) is presented. In the evolutionary analysis of ISO9001 pc values, we sought to group sets of different countries, taking into account common evolutionary patterns. After the cluster analysis, tests of linear correlation between ISO9001 pc and economic indicators were performed. In this current research, one did not consider the culture of the countries concerning certification, industrial heritage or industrial culture; neither a sector analysis. However, those variables will be considered in future work. After the clustering, regression models were developed for each of the identified clusters, in order to characterise the evolution of ISO 9001 certification in different groups of countries, as well as to identify the prospects for the evolution of the quality management systems certification in the countries analysed. Furthermore, the assumption of homoscedasticity of the residuals was evaluated by Breusch Pagan (BPp) test (Breusch and Pagan 1979) and the absence of normality and autocorrelation in residuals were checked using the Shapiro Wilk (SWp) and Durbin Watson (DWp) test, respectively (Draper and Smith 1998). 4. Results analysis and discussion 4.1 Worldwide ISO 9001 evolution Compared to the study conducted by Saraiva and Duarte (2003), Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), the evolution of ISO 9001 certification in the world is continuously increasing, even after the stabilisation period in 2002/2003. Since 2004, there is again a strong growth of the total number of certificates issued worldwide, exceeding the number of 1.1 million certificates, as can be seen in Figure 1. This growth points out to the importance of ISO 9001 and shows its consolidation as a globally implemented standard. However, the decrease in certifications determined in 2002/2003 may have been caused, according to Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), by the end of transition period to the 2000 standard version. Namely, some companies certified for compliance with the standard version did not migrate to new version. In addition, during the period of 2010/2011, another stabilisation period is determined that may have occurred for nearly the same reason, since the standard was revised, with minor changes, in 2008. According to the evolution of the number of countries with entities certified by ISO 9001, it is determined that almost all countries of the world have joined the certification process as seen in Figure 2. Besides, 180 countries have certification bodies. It is observed in Table 1 that compared to the study conducted by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), only two countries within the group of 10 countries with the highest number of certificates issued changed from 2004 to 2011. Australia and the USA are no longer among the top 10, while Brazil and South Korea (Republic of Korea) entered the Figure 1. Global evolution of the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued. (ISO 2012).

International Journal of Production Research 5 Figure 2. Global evolution of the number of countries with entities certified by ISO 9001 (ISO 2012). Table 1. ISO 9001 top 30 countries based on absolute score. # Country ISO 9001 (2011) ISO9001 pc 1 China 328,213 0.244 2 Italy 143,121 2.361 3 Japan 56,912 0.445 4 Spain 53,057 1.150 5 Germany 49,540 0.606 6 UK 43,564 0.695 7 India 29,574 0.025 8 France 29,215 0.463 9 Brazil 28,325 0.145 10 Republic of Korea 27,664 0.556 11 USA 25,811 0.083 12 Romania 14,345 0.907 13 Russian Federation* 13,308 0.093 14 Czech Republic 12,697 1.206 15 Netherlands 11,072 0.663 16 Poland 10,984 0.288 17 Malaysia 10,757 0.377 18 Switzerland 10,182 1.280 19 Colombia 9910 0.215 20 Australia 9659 0.431 21 Turkey 9446 0.126 22 Taipei, Chinese 8335 0.359 23 Thailand 7575 0.118 24 Israel 7520 0.998 25 Canada 7108 0.206 26 Hungary 6825 0.683 27 Singapore 5644 1.070 28 Bulgaria 5001 0.683 29 Sweden 4901 0.519 30 Vietnam 4779 0.054 Note: Table ordered by ISO 9001 absolute score. *The Table include certificates accredited by national accredited bodies not members of IAF. Source: Adapted from ISO (2012, 2013).

6 E.G. Salgado et al. list. Furthermore, both countries are also among the 10 countries that showed increase in the number of certifications. Table 1 shows the top 30 countries in certification numbers for 2011 with their respective ISO9001 pc values. The top positions are still taken by China and Italy and now Japan is the third. The UK fell from third place to sixth and Spain remained in the same place (4th). Like Japan, Germany secured a position and is now the fifth. Compared to the top 10 according to Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006) for 2002, it can be observed that only three countries joined this group (Brazil, South Korea and India). This shows a growth in the number of certifications for countries with emerging economies. Among the top 30 countries in certification numbers, there is great predominance of European and Asian countries. Analysing the certification regional share in 2011, as perceived by Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006), one still sees a continued and systematic reduction in the percentage of European countries and a parallel increase in the percentage of Asian and Pacific countries. This phenomenon is justified by the maturity of European countries in terms of ISO 9001 and the rising rates of certification in countries like China and South Korea. The top10 represent 73.55% of the certificates issued in the world. Comparing to the studies of Saraiva and Duarte (2003) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a) the representativeness of the top three countries, in the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued worldwide, jumped from 34% (2001) and 38.8% (2004) to 50.1% (2011). This growth occurred, mainly, due to the increase in certifications in countries like China and Italy that since 2001 are in the top three groups. It can be observed in Table 2 that among the countries with the highest rates of ISO9001 pc, we still find Italy and Switzerland, but in 2011 Italy obtained first place. This country presented a growth of almost 100% from its ISO9001 pc index compared to 2004, which allowed it the first place rank. Israel practically maintained its index when compared to 2004, which made it fall from third to seventh position. The Czech Republic, as well as Italy, improved its index and went from fourth to third position even with the loss of approximately 3500 certificates. The UK, Australia and Hungary are no longer in the top10 ISO9001 pc group, giving way to Malta, Cyprus and Romania. Romania was the third country in the world in growth of certificates issued in 2011, thereby improving its ISO9001 pc indicator. Table 2 shows the 30 countries with the highest ISO9001 pc values, based on the number of certificates issued in 2011, and their respective ISO 9001 values. Compared to the countries listed by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), it is noticed that Romania, Bulgaria, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong (China) and Croatia joined the group of the Top30 countries in ISO9001 pc in 2011. Analysing the ISO9001 pc tables of Saraiva and Duarte (2003) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), a significant decrease is determined for the following countries: Australia and the UK (Australia fell from 1st to 28th position, while the UK fell from 3rd to 11th position). Comparing Tables 1 and 2, it is noticed that the countries China, India, Brazil, USA, Russia, Poland, Malaysia, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, Turkey, Colombia, Canada and Vietnam do not belong to the top 30 countries in ISO9001 pc. Even with a large number of certificates issued, they show a significantly low value in terms of certificates per 1000 inhabitants. However, countries like Malta, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong (China), Austria, Croatia, Portugal, Finland and Ireland come into the top 30 in ISO9001 pc. It is observed in Figure 3 that approximately 76% of the countries have an ISO9001 pc rate below 0.5. Italy presents itself sovereign in this index, with a big difference from other countries. 4.2 ISO 9001 evolution in the American Continent Figure 4 shows the number of certificates issued for each country in the period of 1993 2011. We observe in Figure 4(a) that Brazil and the USA have the highest number of certificates issued in that region, and that Brazil shows a continuous growth in certification numbers, with two moments of stabilisation (2001/2003 and 2007/2008). The USA, since 2006, shows a strong decline in the number of certificates issued. Colombia presents an increasing trend, reaching in 2010 the third place in ISO 9001 certificates issued. 4.3 ISO 9001 certificates per 1000 inhabitants analysis Cluster analysis was performed starting in 2003, since according to Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), the evolution of ISO 9001 certification in the world is continuously increasing, even after the stabilisation period in 2002/2003. This stabilisation was due to the revision of the standard in 2000. The clustering criterion most commonly used (k-means algorithm) is the one that tends to minimise the sum of the squares of Euclidean distances between objects and the centroid of the respective groups. Using this clustering method, the following clusters were obtained based on the ISO9001 pc values (Figure 5).

International Journal of Production Research 7 Table 2. ISO9001 pc top 30 countries (number of certificates per 1000 inhabitants). # Country ISO9001 pc ISO 9001 (2011) 1 Italy 2.361 143,121 2 Switzerland 1.280 10,182 3 Czech Republic 1.206 12,697 4 Spain 1.150 53,057 5 Singapore 1.070 5644 6 Malta 1.033 437 7 Israel 0.998 7520 8 Romania 0.907 14,345 9 Cyprus 0.861 742 10 Slovenia 0.820 1658 11 UK 0.695 43,564 12 Slovakia 0.695 3787 13 Hungary 0.683 6825 14 Bulgaria 0.683 5001 15 Netherlands 0.663 11,072 16 Estonia 0.623 835 17 Germany 0.606 49,540 18 United Arab Emirates 0.558 2997 19 Republic of Korea 0.556 27,664 20 Hong Kong, China 0.520 3698 21 Sweden 0.519 4901 22 Austria 0.491 4138 23 Croatia 0.481 2117 24 France 0.463 29,215 25 Japan 0.445 56,912 26 Portugal 0.436 4638 27 Australia 0.431 9659 28 Finland 0.419 2265 29 Ireland 0.409 1875 30 Latvia 0.379 787 Note: Table ordered by ISO9001 pc. Source: Adapted from ISO (2012, 2013). Figure 3. ISO9001 pc values by countries, descending (ISO 2012).

8 E.G. Salgado et al. Figure 4. Figure 5. Evolution of the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued to American countries. Cluster analysis. We opted to draw a line between 15 and 20%. The economic situation of the country was also taken into account for the cutting process, since, for example, it would not be possible to model the evolution of the USA (in the standard in question) along with Colombia and Argentina, or not even Brazil along with the countries defined in Cluster 6. A total of six clusters were identified. Cluster 1 is composed by Canada, Cluster 2 the USA, Cluster 3 Brazil, Cluster 4 Argentina and Colombia, Cluster 5 Chile and Uruguay and Cluster 6 consists of the following countries: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela and Mexico. Figure 6 shows the evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for the countries in Clusters 1, 2 and 3. Based on the ISO Survey 2011 (ISO 2012) these three countries are among the four largest certification rates, in terms of number of absolute certifications per country, and have the highest rates of Total Reserves among the American countries. These three countries show different evolution patterns from all the other countries, with Canada and the USA presenting a decrease in the ISO9001 pc indicator. Apparently, for these two countries, this reduction in the number of companies certified

International Journal of Production Research 9 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Brazil United States Canada Figure 6. Evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for the countries in Clusters 1, 2 and 3. according to the ISO 9001 standard occurs jointly. As these countries have close economic and trade relationships, ISO 9001 certification withdrawing by US companies affects companies in Canada and vice versa. The decrease in the number of companies certified in Canada shows that the transition to the 2000 version of the standard was not made by a significant number of companies. On the contrary, Brazil shows an increase in the number of absolute certifications, especially between the years 2009 and 2010, being the country with the highest number of certificates issued among the countries studied. Despite presenting rapid growth in numbers of certification in the last two years, it still shows an ISO9001 pc average value lower than the other countries. However, Brazil has increased its index over the past two years where it is clear that the evolution in the number of certificates issued was processed in a clearly accentuated way since 2009. Figure 7 shows the evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for the countries in Cluster 4. The evolution of this cluster in number of ISO9001 pc certification is characterised by an increasing trend until 2008, and then a stabilisation period occurs; whereas Argentina showed a small decrease in this indicator. The evolution in the number of certificates issued was handled smoothly until 2005 in Colombia, with a peak since 2009. Uruguay and Chile show very similar evolutionary patterns of growth, as shown Figure 8, that shows the evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for Cluster 5. Based on this indicator (ISO9001 pc ), Uruguay and Chile are two of the three countries with the highest values in 2011. Uruguay shows the highest value (0.230) and Chile the third (0.212) among the American countries. Comparing with Clusters 1, 2, 3 and 4, Uruguay, even with the smallest number of certificates issued obtained the highest rates of ISO9001 pc in the last two years. In turn, Chile s rates are among the top three in the last four years. These two countries, compared to the rest of the world, are in the 45th and 46th position, respectively. Cluster 6 comprises the vast majority of countries that meet the predefined conditions. Of the countries analysed, 61% belong to this cluster. Analysing Figure 9, we see that this group of countries converges mostly to values below 0.06 certificates issued per 1000 inhabitants. Therefore, the scale was adjusted to better show the evolution graphs. Most countries in this group show smooth and less dynamic evolutionary growth when compared to the countries in Clusters 3, 4 and 5. This group of countries shows different evolution formats in recent years, as observed in Figure 9. Costa Rica shows a decline in this indicator since 2007, differently from Ecuador that, since 2004, presents an increase. In turn, Mexico maintains the same level since 2006 and has performed very similar behaviour. Even Mexico is showing a large number of certificates issued, compared with countries of this region, but it has low ISO9001 pc average value. Over the last year, Ecuador obtained ISO9001 pc index close to that of countries like the USA (0.083) and Russia (0.089). 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Argentina Colombia Figure 7. Evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for the countries in Cluster 4.

10 E.G. Salgado et al. 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chile Uruguay Figure 8. Evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for the countries in Cluster 5. 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 9. Evolution of the ISO9001 pc indicator for countries in Cluster 6. The rest of the countries (Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Bolivia, El Salvador, Peru and Paraguay) in this group, with the exception of Venezuela, have very similar behaviour characteristics with an upward trend, even with some oscillations at certain times. With a decreasing trend since 2007, El Salvador, Paraguay and Peru lead this group of countries for this indicator. In this group, Venezuela stands out and, despite a GNI pc close to that of countries of clusters 1, 4 and 5, shows an index lower than expected and with a declining trend since 2007. 4.4 ISO 9001 certificates per capita vs. GNI pc Performing the linear correlation test between the values of ISO9001 pc and GNI pc for each country between the years 1993 and 2011, one can see that the vast majority of countries in North and Latin America show a strong or moderate positive correlation. According to data obtained for Argentina and Canada, there is no significant linear correlation between these two indicators because the calculated p-values are greater than 0.05, as can be seen in Table 3. With the exception of Venezuela, all other countries with ISO9001 pc average below 0.04 have the GNI pc below US$ 10,000.00. Similarly, all countries with ISO9001 pc average above 0.04 have the GNI pc above US$ 10,000.00 with the exception of Argentina and Colombia. Taking into account data from the ISO9001 pc year 2011 and GNI pc data from all the countries studied, also for the year 2011, we observe a significant linear correlation (r = 0.72, p-value = 0.008) using the Spearman correlation test, which is the test used for small samples, as seen in Figure 10. Thus, compared to the studies conducted by Saraiva and Duarte (2003) and Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), America follows the same behaviour as related to ISO9001 pc and GNI pc, and it can be a global trend that the higher the GNI pc the greater will also be the ISO9001 pc indicator. Although performing the comparison differently, for Franceschini, Galetto, and Cecconi (2006), there is also a positive correlation between the number of certificates of a country and its GNI. Bolivia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Honduras Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela, RB

International Journal of Production Research 11 Table 3. Existing correlation between ISO9001 pc and GNI pc for each country. Country R correlation (1993 2011) p-value Classification of the correlation definition (adapted from Brito et al. 2003) Argentina 0.2031 0.4042 Weak negative Bolivia 0.7249 <0.001 Strong positive Brazil 0.8631 <0.001 Strong positive Canada 0.2893 0.0624 Weak positive Chile 0.9394 <0.001 Strong positive Colombia 0.9225 <0.001 Strong positive Costa Rica 0.8799 <0.001 Strong positive Dominican 0.9227 <0.001 Strong positive Republic Ecuador 0.9510 <0.001 Strong positive El Salvador 0.9192 <0.001 Strong positive Guatemala 0.9714 <0.001 Strong positive Honduras 0.8965 <0.001 Strong positive Mexico 0.9476 <0.001 Strong positive Paraguay 0.6769 0.0036 Moderate positive Peru 0.9267 <0.001 Strong positive United States 0.6806 0.0013 Moderate positive Uruguay 0.5279 0.0292 Moderate positive Venezuela, RB 0.8097 <0.001 Strong positive Note: Table ordered by alphabetically. Figure 10. ISO9001 pc vs. GNI pc (year 2011). 4.5 ISO 9001 per capita vs. exports %GDP (including goods and services) Analysing the relationship between the percentage of gross domestic product (%GDP) coming from exports of goods and services by American countries with their respective ISO9001 pc indices for the year 2011, it is determined that based on linear correlation (r = 0.34, p-value = 0.161) no significant effect is observed. However, as can be seen in Figure 11, there is a tendency that the ISO9001 pc of some countries is negatively influenced by the indicator of %GDP coming from exports of goods and services.

12 E.G. Salgado et al. Figure 11. % ISO9001 pc vs. exports of goods and services (%GDP) (year 2011). 4.6 ISO9001 pc vs. the IMD competitiveness index The IMD Competitiveness Index, annually published by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD 2012) used here, is relative to the year 2011, with the US and Hong Kong occupying the first position in this ranking (competitiveness index equal to 100%). This analysis took into account only the nine countries that have the IMD competitiveness index (Figure 12). No linear correlation (r = 0.42, p-value = 0255) is determined between ISO9001 pc and the respective IMD competitive indices. Similarly to what happened to the most competitive countries of the European Union, according to Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a); the USA being the most competitive country, certification based on ISO 9001 becomes, perhaps, a less important factor to improve competitiveness, using possibly other types of methodologies and quality management tools. The same analysis can be observed in Canada, which increased its competitiveness index since 2009 and dropped its ISO9001 pc. 4.7 ISO9001pc vs. innovation/sophistication factors The Index of innovation and sophistication factors used here are for the year 2012, and were obtained from The Global Competitiveness Report 2012 2013 (WEF 2013). The analysis to relate the ISO9001 pc with innovation was conducted differently from the study of Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a) for European countries, mainly due to the lack of reliable data to produce meaningful analyses. Therefore, we chose to compare the ISO9001 pc of 2011 and the index of innovation and sophistication factors, as can be seen in Figure 13. From these data, it is determined that based on the linear correlation (r = 0.39, p-value = 0.107) there is no significant effect observed; similarly to the analysis performed between ISO9001 pc vs. %GDP coming from exports of goods and services. Although the linear correlation does not exist, by observing only Venezuela, Paraguay, Ecuador, Brazil and Canada, it is determined that the greater the number of ISO 9001 per 1000 inhabitants, the higher are also the indicators of innovation and sophistication factors. It is worth mentioning the fact that Costa Rica obtained significant values for innovation and sophistication factors compared with Brazil, and these two countries are second only to the USA and Canada.

International Journal of Production Research 13 Figure 12. IMD index (%) vs. ISO9001 pc (year 2011). Figure 13. % ISO9001 pc vs. rate of innovation and sophistication factors (year 2011). Although using different metrics and ways of calculating, comparing the results obtained with data from the study conducted by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a), America follows the same behaviour of Europe when relating ISO9001 pc and innovation, suggesting that this type of situation is a worldwide trend. Analysing all the countries of America together, we observe a pattern of linear correlation only between ISO9001 pc and GNI pc, and no significant correlation is observed between other economic factors (IMD Competitiveness Index,

14 E.G. Salgado et al. exports %GDP and the indicator of innovation and sophistication factors) and the ISO9001 pc indicator. Furthermore, when looking at the country level, we observe that most countries show strong correlation between the numbers of GNI pc and ISO 9001 certificates issued, as seen in Table 3, thus justifying the need to create clusters of countries for further research. This can happen because the countries present very different economic, social and cultural situations, as well as different industrial capabilities. Another important factor is that the analysed countries differ in their main economic activities, and the countries that have greater industrial capacity as the USA, Canada and Brazil are among the highest rates of ISO 9001 certification. Countries with lower manufacturing capabilities compared to those countries, and with their main economic activity resulting from agriculture or mining, such as Guatemala and Honduras are among the countries with the lowest levels of certification. This affirmation confirms the statement made by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2009a) on the influence of economic groups in the certification process. Another important analysis that can be performed based on these results is the need to seek other economic indicators that can show a significant linear correlation and influence the ISO9001 pc indicator for countries of the Americas. Moreover, it is necessary to verify the influence of the temporal indicators studied here for the following years of ISO9001 pc, in order to verify if there is influence of these indicators over the years. 4.8 ISO 9001 certification modelling in the American Continent Models were developed for each one of the clusters previously identified, assuming that the number of ISO 9001 certified companies in a given country, at time t, depends on its level of economic development and the evolution in the number of certificates issued in the previous years. Tests were performed between various relationships in order to identify significant variables for the ISO9001 pc certification rate in American countries. Possible significant relationships were identified to be used as explanatory variables in the models. The errors have presented constant variance, independence and normality distribution. Additionally, there is no high degree of multicollinearity between independent variables. Hence, the multiple linear regression models assumptions have been fulfilled (Montgomery, Peck, and Vining 2006; Hair Jr. et al. 2010). Table 4 shows the description and type of each one of the variables used. Unlike the works proposed by Franceschini et al. (2010); Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011); Llach, Marimonand, and Bernardo (2011); Sampaio, Saraiva, and Gomes (2014), the Total Reserve of a country was analysed as a variable that can influence the number of certifications; Total Reserve being the totality of a country s wealth, including gold. The final models are presented in Table 5. The mathematical expressions for the models above are as follows: Cluster 1 (Canada) Cluster 2 (USA) Table 4. ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 0:460 þ 0:212 ISO9001 pcðt 1Þ þ 0:325 ISO9001 pcðt 2Þ 0:0037 ðtrþ (1) ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 1:404 þ 0:388 ISO9001 pcðt 2Þ þ 0:147 Ln GNI pc 0:179e 3 ðtrþ (2) Description of the variables analysed. Variables Description Type ISO9001 pc(t) Number of ISO 9001 certificates issued per 1000 inhabitants in the year Continuous ISO9001 pc Difference between the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued per 1000 inhabitants in a given year and Continuous (t 1) ISO9001 pc the previous year Difference between the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued per 1000 inhabitants in a given year and Continuous (t 2) two years before TR Value of the total reserves of a country in billions of dollars Continuous GNI pc Gross National Income per capita Continuous GNI Gross National Income Continuous GNI pc(t 1) Difference between the GNI pc in a given year and the previous year Continuous GNI pc(t 2) Difference between the GNI pc in a given year and two years before Continuous

International Journal of Production Research 15 Table 5. Multiple regression model. Cluster Variable b b SE ð b bþ t p-value 1 Intercept 0.460 0.018 25.767 <0.001 ISO9001 pc(t 1) 0.212 0.064 3.287 0.022 ISO9001 pc(t 2) 0.325 0.059 5.519 0.003 TR 0.0037 0.004 9.343 <0.001 2 Intercept 1.404 2.953e 1 4.754 0.005 ISO9001 pc(t 2) 0.388 6.067e 2 6.400 0.001 Ln(GNI pc ) 0.147 2.785e 2 5.279 0.003 TR 0.179e 3 1.663e 14 10.747 <0.001 3 Intercept 0.003 2.095e 3 12.997 <0.001 ISO9001 pc(t 2) 0.617 4.164e 2 14.818 <0.001 GNI pc(t 2) 0.897e 5 1.719e 6 5.217 0.003 TR 0.279e 3 1.719e 5 16.202 <0.001 4 Intercept 0.113 7.302e 3 15.47 <0.001 GNI pc(t 2) 4.159e 5 5.752e 6 7.23 <0.001 5 Intercept 0.006 1.935e 02 3.066 0.022 GNI pc 7.35e 5 6.608e 6 11.131 <0.001 TR 0.023 3.155e 3 7.329 <0.001 6 Intercept 0.255 0.018 14.216 <0.001 ISO9001 pc(t 2) 0.397 0.116 3.415 0.014 Ln(GNI pc ) 0.033 0.002 15.361 <0.001 Cluster 3 (Brazil) ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 0:003 þ 0:617 ISO9001 pcðt 2Þ 0:897e 5 GNI pcðt 2Þ þ 0:279e 3 ðtrþ (3) Cluster 4 (Argentina and Colombia) Cluster 5 (Chile and Uruguay) ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 0:113 þ 4:159e 5 GNI pcðt 2Þ ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 0:006 þ 7:35e 5 GNI pc 0:023 ðtrþ (5) Cluster 6 (Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Paraguay, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Bolivia) ISO9001 pcðtþ ¼ 0:255 þ 0:397 ISO9001 pcðt 2Þ þ 0:033 Ln GNI pc (6) Based on the results, it can be realised that for Clusters 1, 2, 3 and 5, the Total Reserve variable (TR) influences considerably the number of ISO9001 pc(t). Only for Cluster 3, the variable TR influences positively, contributing to the increasing of the number of certifications. For the other clusters (1, 2 and 5), the increasing of the TR contributes to decrease the number of ISO 9001 certificates issued. Another significant variable for Clusters 1, 2, 3 and 6 is the number of certificates issued per capita in the period t 2 (ISO9001 pc(t 2) ). This variable influences all clusters positively. Considering the number of issued certificates per capita in the period t 1 (ISO9001 pc(t 1) ), this variable was only significant for Cluster 1, which differs from the models proposed by Sampaio, Saraiva, and Rodrigues (2011). Another variable analysed and considered significant in Clusters 2, 5 and 6 is the GNI pc. For these clusters, this variable shows a positive influence and is significant to the models. However, it was necessary to perform a variable transformation (L n (GNI pc )). For Clusters 3 and 4, the variable that aids in the forecasting model is also the GNI pc, but from a period of t 2 (GNI pc (t 2) ). For Cluster 4, this variable was the only significant variable of the forecasting model. The model validation results are presented in Table 6. (4)

16 E.G. Salgado et al. Table 6. Model validation results. Statistics Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5 Cluster 6 N 1 1 1 2 2 11 R 2 0.976 0.982 0.997 0.882 0.970 0.976 R 2 Adj 0.962 0.971 0.995 0.865 0.961 0.968 Anova (p-value) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 SWp-value 0.3388 0.1860 0.1860 0.5768 0.4980 0.8730 BPp-value 0.4290 0.2450 0.2450 0.3786 0.1130 0.2710 DWp-value 0.6840 0.7460 0.6720 0.1440 0.3760 0.7760 5. Conclusion This paper provides interesting information concerning the relationship between ISO 9001 certification and economic indicators for American Continent countries with more than 100 issued certificates in 2011, similarly to other works already developed in European countries. Moreover, taking account the number of certification in the world the analysis of the evolution of ISO 9001 shows that it is continuously increasing, even after the stabilisation period in 2002/2003. Furthermore, since 2004 there is again a strong growth of the total number of certificates issued worldwide. This situation applies to the American Continent too. In this way, when analysing the countries of America together, we obtain significant linear correlations between ISO9001 pc and GNI pc for the year 2011 and GNI pc with the absolute number of certificates analysed since 1993. This may occur because of the cultural, social and economic differences between the countries studied, since they exhibit different industrial and economic characteristics. However, no linear correlation is determined between ISO9001 pc indicator vs. other economic factors (IMD Competitiveness Index, exports %GDP and the indicator of innovation and sophistication factors). Based on the cluster analysis performed, it was possible to identify six clusters of American countries, concerning the ISO 9001 certification patterns evolution, considering countries with 100 or more issued certificates in 2011(Cluster 1 is composed by Canada, Cluster 2 the USA, Cluster 3 Brazil, Cluster 4 Argentina and Colombia, Cluster 5 Chile and Uruguay and Cluster 6 consists of the following countries: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela and Mexico). Furthermore, we were able to identify perspectives for certification growth for most countries, with exception of USA and Canada. This is a trend that occurs mainly after the revision of the standard in 2000. Unlike other studies, the economic indicator Total Reserve was considered in the forecasting models, being one of the most significant variables. Besides Total Reserve, the GNI pc(t 2), GNI pc, ISO9001 pc(t 1), ISO9001 pc(t 2) are also significant to forecast the number of ISO 9001 certified companies. 5.1 Managerial implications The results here stated provide managers, practitioners and researchers novel information to support their activities taking into account the better understanding about the ISO 9001 certification evolution over time and which are the factors that have been influencing the certification rate. As far as one were able to find out, the ISO 9001 phenomenon statistical analysis, from the perspective presented in this paper, namely with focus on the American Continent, has never been reported in the literature. Moreover, this research has identified the economic factors that influence ISO 9001 certification rate evolution and its diffusion in the American Continent. In addition, these results can support certification bodies to identify more effectively the trends of ISO 9001 certification evolution in this region of the world. 5.2 Future research It has become apparent during this paper that many studies have been carried out with focus on comparing and forecasting the management systems certification evolution (e.g. ISO 9001 and ISO 14,001) in the world. However, it has been possible also to identify gaps in the literature, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Hence, suggestions for future research emerge from this work: First, analyse the ISO 9001 certification evolution for companies activity sectors in the American countries. Also, considering that the industrial heritage or industrial culture were not part of the scope of this research, a review of these models including social and cultural indexes would be interesting.