21/4 7 March 21 External migration Executive summary New Zealand s permanent and long-term migrant flows have oscillated between positive and negative net figures over the last 4 years, with a net gain of 44,843 permanent and long-term migrants over the period (January 196 to December 2). The main occupational groups travelling for permanent and long-term periods are professionals, followed by technicians and associate professionals, and service and sales workers. The 2 to 24 years age group have the largest number departing New Zealand, while the 3 to 39 years age group have the largest number arriving. Great Britain, South Africa, India and China were the four main source countries of those gaining residence in the June 2 year. In the 1996 Census, there were 65,19 New Zealand residents of foreign birth, up from 482,487 in the 1986 Census. The five countries experiencing the greatest increase from the 1991 census are all located within the East Asian region. 35 percent of foreign births in the 1996 Census were attributed to either England or Scotland, down from 49 percent in the 1986 Census. Introduction An increasing number of people are arriving and departing New Zealand annually for permanent or long-term periods, where the long-term is defined as a period of twelve months or more. This background note looks at some of the issues surrounding permanent and long-term migration and recent migratory trends regarding New Zealand. Migrant data within this background note is sourced from (i) Statistics New Zealand, and (ii) the New Zealand Immigration Service (NZIS). One of the main characteristics of New Zealand s net permanent and long-term arrivals (PLT) trend is its oscillation between positive and negative net flows (Figure 1). For the period January 196 to December 2, a net 44,843 permanent and long-term migrants entered New Zealand.
Figure 1. Net permanent and long-term arrivals into New Zealand, years ending December 196 to December 2 4, 3, Net permanent and long-term arrivals 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, Dec-6 Dec-62 Dec-64 Dec-66 Dec-68 Dec-7 Dec-72 Dec-74 Dec-76 Dec-78 Dec-8 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-9 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- -5, Year Ending Inflows peaked during the year to April 1996 with a net 3,155 PLT arrivals, outflows peaked in the year to July 1979 with a net 43,649 PLT departures. The net permanent and long-term arrival figures consist of both arrival and departure components. These two components have experienced different trends. Figure 2 shows both arrival and departure trends for the period between December 196 and December 2. Over this period arrivals peaked in the year to July 1996 at 82,13, while departures peaked in the year to September 1979 at 84,13 and troughed in the year to March 1962 at 12,691. There has been a steady increase in the number of permanent and long-term departures since the year ending December 1993. Some of the drivers of migrant flows include (i) the economic cycle within the country of departure and arrival, (ii) income earning disparities, (iii) political stability, (iv) lifestyle, (v) environmental influences, and (vi) immigration policy. 1 Figure 2. Permanent and long-term arrivals and departures, years ending December 196 to December 2 1, 8, 6, Permanent and long-term arrivals and departures 4, 2, -2, -4, Dec-6 Dec-62 Dec-64 Dec-66 Dec-68 Dec-7 Dec-72 Dec-74 Dec-76 Dec-78 Dec-8 Dec-82 Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-9 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- -6, -8, -1, Annual PLT Arrivals Annual PLT D epartures Year Ending Note: Arrivals are shown as positive figures above, while departures are shown as negative figures. 1 Department of Labour. (1999). 1999 Briefing to Ministers. Wellington. p. 83. 2
Occupation of migrants The occupational data of migrants is clouded by the fact that the majority of arrival and departure cards completed have occupational fields that are either unidentifiable/illegible or not applicable/not specified. 2 In absolute terms, over the year to December 2 the greatest number of departures from New Zealand are those within the major occupational group, service and sales workers. In the year to December 2, a net 2,19 service and sales workers left the country on a permanent and long-term basis. Second, were technicians and associate professionals, with a net outflow of 1,89, followed by legislators, administrators and managers with a net loss of 1,589 (Table 1). 3 Of those permanent and long-term migrants entering and leaving New Zealand, whose occupational details are available, the major occupational category with the largest number arriving and departing was that of professionals which included 6,499 arrivals (31.3%) and 7,969 departures (25.%). The second category was technicians and associate professionals with 3,721 arrivals and 5,611 departures (17.9% and 17.6% respectively). This was followed by service and sales workers with 2,739 arrivals (13.2%) and 4,929 departures (15.5%). Table 1. Permanent and long-term arrivals, departures and net arrivals by major occupational groupings, year ending December 2 Major Occupation Arrivals Percentage of Arrivals (%) 1 Departures Percentage of Departures (%) 1 Net Arrivals Service and Sales Workers 2,739 13.2% 4,929 15.5% -2,19 Technicians & Associate Professionals 3,721 17.9% 5,611 17.6% -1,89 Legislators, Administrators & Managers 1,68 8.1% 3,269 1.3% -1,589 Professionals 6,499 31.3% 7,969 25.% -1,47 Trades Workers 1,769 8.5% 3,226 1.1% -1,457 Plant & Machine Operators & Assemblers 734 3.5% 1,639 5.2% -95 Clerks 2,184 1.5% 2,883 9.1% -699 Labourers & Related Elementary Service Worker 581 2.8% 1,142 3.6% -561 Agriculture & Fishery Workers 852 4.1% 1,146 3.6% -294 Sub-total Occupations 1 2,759 1.% 31,814 1.% -11,55 Not Applicable/Not Specified 35,188 34,354 834 Occupation Unidentifiable or Illegible 7,47 8,138-1,91 Total Occupations 62,994 74,36 Note: 1. Excludes those whose occupations are unidentifiable/illegible or not applicable/not specified. -11,312 Occupational trends In terms of long-term trends, Figure 3 shows net arrivals of the three main major-occupational categories of (i) professionals, (ii) technicians and associate professionals, and (iii) service and sales workers. There has been an overall decline in the net arrivals of all three major occupational categories since the mid-199s. The net arrival sales and service workers figures have always been negative throughout the series, peaking at 161 in the year ended April 1996. The net arrival figures for technicians and associate professionals entered negative territory again in the year ended May 1997, and 2 This being the case for occupational data for the year ending December 2. For arrivals, 11.2% had occupations unidentifiable or illegible, with a further 55.9% having occupational data that was not applicable/not specified. For departures, the percentages were 11.% and 46.2% respectively. One reason for the high number of occupational data which is not applicable/not specified is that the category includes children, students, and those who are not currently actively engaged in work. 3 These figures exclude those migrants whose occupational details were unidentifiable/illegible or not applicable/not specified. A net loss of 257 migrants for the December 2 year is associated with these two categories (unidentifiable/illegible 1,91, and not applicable/not specified 834). 3
for professionals in the year ended January 1999. The net immigration of professionals peaked at 5,574 in the June 1996 year. Figure 3. Net arrivals of (i) professionals, (ii) technicians and associate professionals, and (iii) service and sales workers, years ending March 1992 to December 2 6 5 4 3 Professionals Technicians & Associate Professionals Service and Sales W o r k e r s Net Arrivals 2 1-1 Mar-92 Jul-92 Nov-92 Mar-93 Jul-93 Nov-93 Mar-94 Jul-94 Nov-94 Mar-95 Jul-95 Nov-95 Mar-96 Jul-96 Nov-96 Mar-97 Jul-97 Nov-97 Mar-98 Jul-98 Nov-98 Mar-99 Jul-99 Nov-99 Mar- Jul- Nov- -2-3 Year Ending Age groups of migrants Net permanent and long-term arrival figures have been negative since the year ended July 1998. However, for some age categories the net figures have been negative for a greater period. The net arrival figures for those aged between 2 and 24 years have been negative since the year ended November 1975, while those aged between 25 and 29 years have been negative since February 1998 (Figure 4). Figure 4. Net permanent and long-term arrivals by age group (15 49 years), years ending June 1972 to December 2 15 1 15-19 Years 2-24 Years 25-29 Years 3-39 Years 4-49 Years 5 Net arrivals Jun-72 Jun-74 Jun-76 Jun-78 Jun-8 Jun-82 Jun-84 Jun-86 Jun-88 Jun-9 Jun-92 Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun- -5-1 -15 Year Ending Note: Not all age groups are of the same size, 15 19, 2 25, and 25 29 age groups have a five year age range, while 3 39 and 4 49 age groups have an age range of ten years. While those aged between 2 and 24 years of age are the largest age group departing with 14,42 leaving in the year ended December 2, their proportion of total departures has declined over the years, from 33 percent (year 4
to June 1972) to approximately 19 percent currently (year to December 2) (Table 2). 4 There has been strong growth in the proportion of those leaving in the 25 to 29, and 3 to 39 age groups, which now both contribute approximately 19 percent each (up from 15% and 11% respectively for the June 1972 year). Table 2. Permanent and long-term departure, arrival and net figures by age group, year ending December 2 Age Group Departures Proportion of departures (%) Arrivals Proportion of arrivals (%) Net Arrivals -4 Years 4,468 6.% 3,857 6.1% -611 5-9 Years 4,299 5.8% 3,669 5.8% -63 1-14 Years 3,667 4.9% 3,525 5.6% -142 15-19 Years 6,59 8.2% 7,776 12.3% 1,717 2-24 Years 14,42 19.4% 8,427 13.4% -5,975 25-29 Years 14,261 19.2% 12,114 19.2% -2,147 3-39 Years 13,911 18.7% 12,142 19.3% -1,769 4-49 Years 7,237 9.7% 5,779 9.2% -1,458 5-59 Years 3,778 5.1% 3,119 5.% -659 6-64 Years 843 1.1% 1,85 1.7% 242 65 Years and Over 1,381 1.9% 1,51 2.4% 12 Total All Age Groups 74,36 1.% 62,994 1.% -11,312 New Zealand residents New Zealand resident permanent and long-term departures (which include overseas-born New Zealanders) in the December 2 year equalled 58,68 (Table 3). During the same period, 2,763 New Zealand residents re-entered the country, resulting in a net departure figure of 37,917. Table 3. Number of New Zealand residents arriving and departing New Zealand on a permanent and long-term basis, years ending December 199 to 2 December Year Departures Arrivals Net Arrivals 199 35,959 28,981-6,978 1991 3,63 24,596-6,7 1992 3,88 22,18-8,7 1993 3,44 22,584-7,856 1994 34,8 23,122-1,886 1995 37,418 23,363-14,55 1996 4,743 22,83-17,913 1997 44,273 22,145-22,128 1998 48,273 21,299-26,974 1999 53,215 22,551-3,664 2 58,68 2,763-37,917 Figure 5 shows the annual departure, arrival and net figures of New Zealand residents on a permanent and long-term basis for years ending March 1979 to December 2. Departures of New Zealand residents peaked in the October 1979 year at 64,34, and troughed in the January 1984 year at 24,46. Arrivals of New Zealand residents back into the country peaked in the March 1991 year 4 In absolute terms, the number of departures have increased for this age group from 11,93 for the year to June 1972. 5
at 29,575 and troughed at 18,511 in the December 1985 year. Throughout this period New Zealand resident departures have always outnumbered arrivals. Figure 5. Number of New Zealand residents arriving and departing New Zealand, on a permanent and long-term basis, years ending March 1979 to December 2 8, 6, 4, Number 2, -2, Mar-79 Mar-8 Mar-81 Mar-82 Mar-83 Mar-84 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-9 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- -4, PLT Annual Departures PLT Annual Arrivals PLT Net Arrivals -6, Year Ending New Zealand Immigration Service (NZIS) The Department of Labour s New Zealand Immigration Service (NZIS) manages the flow of migrants and temporary entrants into New Zealand under the 1987 Immigration Act. The Act establishes that everyone who is not a New Zealand citizen must hold a permit to be in New Zealand (or be exempted from the requirement to hold a permit). 5 Since June 1998 New Zealand has had an annual immigration target of 38, residence approvals and a view to achieve a net migration gain of 1, a year over the medium term. For the year ending June 2 the NZIS granted residence to 36,396 persons (Figure 6). 6 Figure 6: Total resident permits granted and target levels for the years ending June 1993 to June 2 6, 5, Total Target Number of Residential Permits 4, 3, 2, 1, 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Year Sources: New Zealand Immigration Service website: www.immigration.govt.nz; Immigration Fact Pack: July 2, Issue 13. 5 Department of Labour. (1999). 1999 Briefing to Ministers. Wellington. p. 95. 6 New Zealand Immigration Service. (2). Immigration Fact Pack: July 2, Issue 13. p.1 6
Residence policy People wishing to migrate to New Zealand can do so under the following immigration categories: General Skills A points system in which applicants are scored for a number of factors such as qualifications, work experience and age. Business Skills Investor category. Applicants applying under the investor category are assessed by a points system based upon a structure that awards points for age, business experience and investment funds. Investment funds must be retained within New Zealand for two years. Entrepreneur category. Has been set up to grant residence to those people who have established a successful business in New Zealand for a period of two years. Long-term business visa. A specific business visa/permit for those migrants interested in applying for residence under the entrepreneur category and those interested in establishing a business in New Zealand but who do not wish to live permanently in New Zealand. The long-term working visa lasts up to three years. Provision for employees of relocating businesses. This policy provision sets out to facilitate the granting of residence to employees of businesses relocating to New Zealand. Family Category Provides an opportunity for people to live in New Zealand if they are married to, or are in a de-facto or same-sex relationship with a New Zealander, and, in some cases, for the parents, children, and adult siblings of New Zealanders. Humanitarian Category Available to those applicants who have the support of a close family member who is a New Zealand citizen or residence permit holder; and whose circumstances are causing serious emotional or physical harm to the applicant or a New Zealand relative that can only be resolved by the applicant being granted residence in New Zealand. Samoan Quota Up to 1,1 Samoan citizens who have a job offer in New Zealand and who are aged between 18 45 years, may be granted residence each year. Refugee Up to 75 refugees (nominated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) may resettle in New Zealand under the Refugee Quota Programme. In addition, New Zealand accepts and determines refugee status claims in accordance with the UN Convention on the Status of Refugees 1951. If a person is found to be in genuine fear of persecution, they may be granted refugee status in New Zealand. They may then apply for residence. 7
Figure 7 shows the percentage of total residence approvals for the June 2 year by approval category. Figure 7. Residence approvals by category, year ending June 2 Humanitarian 6% Samoan quota 3% Refugee 3% Other 5% General skills 49% Family 34% Source: New Zealand Immigration Service, Immigration Fact Pack: July 2, Issue 13. Table 4 below details the top ten nationalities of those approved for residence for the year ended June 2. Table 4. Top ten nationalities of those approved residence in the year ending June 2 Ranking Country Number Percentage Ranking Country Number Percentage 1 Great Britain 5,8 14.% 7 Indonesia 949 2.6% 2 South Africa 3,76 1.2% 8 Tonga 952 2.6% 3 India 3,585 9.8% 9 Philippines 924 2.5% 4 China 3,569 9.8% 1 South Korea 913 2.5% 5 Fiji 2,42 5.6% Other 12,691 34.9% 6 Samoa 1,985 5.5% Total Source: New Zealand Immigration Service, Immigration Fact Pack: July 2, Issue 13. 36,396 1.% Birthplace of New Zealand residents According to the 1996 Census there were 65,19 New Zealand residents of foreign birth, up from 527,34 in 1991 and 482,487 in 1986. This group made up 17.5 percent of the New Zealand population, compared with 15.8 percent in 1991. Over the last three Censuses there has been a marked change in the distribution of foreign births of New Zealand residents. In 1986, 49 percent of foreign births were attributed to either England or Scotland, compared with 35 percent in the 1996 Census. The percentage of foreign births associated with Asian countries have risen markedly over the same period from 7 percent to 19 percent (Figure 8). 8
Figure 8. Birthplace of foreign born New Zealand residents 6.% 1986 Census 5.% 1991 Census 1996 Census 4.% Percentage 3.% 2.% 1.%.% North America England & Scotland 1986 Census 2.9% 48.8% 13.8% 24.9% 6.8% 2.8% 1991 Census 2.9% 41.7% 12.6% 27.8% 11.8% 3.2% 1996 Census 3.1% 34.9% 12.3% 25.4% 19.4% 4.9% Source: Statistics New Zealand, SUPERMAP Database. Other Europe Oceania Asia Other Area In the 1996 Census, England was the most significant country of foreign births, with 18,564 New Zealand residents born there (Table 5). The top five countries of those born overseas accounted for 55 percent of all foreign births. This has reduced from 71 percent in 1986, and 64 percent in 1991. The five countries of birth of foreign born New Zealand residents that have experienced the greatest percentage increase between the 1991 and 1996 Censuses are all situated in East Asian region, and include the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, and Thailand. Together, in 1996 they account for 44,721 foreign births of New Zealand residents or 7 percent of total foreign births. One reason for the large increase of Asian-born New Zealand residents includes the changes to New Zealand s immigration policy in 1986, which paved the way for immigrants from non-traditional source countries. Table 5. Top five countries of birth of foreign born New Zealand residents, and the five countries of birth experiencing the greatest percentage increase between 1991 and 1996 Censuses Ranking Top five countries of birth of foreign born NZ residents 1 Total Number 1996 Percentage of overseas births Ranking Top five countries of birth experiencing the greatest percentage increase (1991-1996) Total Number 1991 Total Number 1996 Percentage increase (%) 1 England 18,564 29.8% 1 Korea, Republic of 81 12,183 1421% 2 Australia 54,585 9.% 2 Taiwan 3,411 1,932 22% 3 Western Samoa 42,174 7.% 3 Japan 2,184 6,498 198% 4 Scotland 3,891 5.1% 4 Hong Kong 4,929 11,76 139% 5 Netherlands 23,43 3.9% 5 Thailand 1,512 3,348 121% Top Five 331,644 54.7% Top Five 12,837 44,721 248% Note: 1. Excludes those classified as not specified, and categories which are not countries such as Other Europe. Source: Statistics New Zealand, SUPERMAP Database. According to the 1996 Census, those New Zealand residents born overseas tend to have somewhat higher levels of education than those born within New Zealand. Amongst those aged 15 and over, 7 percent of those born overseas had formal educational qualifications compared with 65 percent of those born within New Zealand, and 13 percent have university degrees against 7 percent for New Zealand born. Those born overseas were more highly represented in white-collar work with 9
43 percent being employed in occupations such as legislators, administrators, managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals. The corresponding figure for those born within New Zealand is 35 percent. Relationship between migration and GDP? There seems to be a strong relationship between the growth of New Zealand s gross domestic product (GDP) and the number of net permanent and long-term migrants entering the country (Figure 9). Figure 9. Net migration and percentage change in GDP, years ending March 197 to 2 8. 4, Percentage change in GDP (Year-on-year) 6. 4. 2.. -2. 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, Net Migration -4. March Year Percent change in real G DP (Year-on-year) (LHS) Net migration (RHS) -5, Annual growth in real GDP (March years) peaked in 1974 at 7.2 percent and 1994 at 6.4 percent, while net permanent and long-term arrivals peaked with 27,477 in 1974, and 29,832 in 1996. Annual GDP growth troughed in 1978 at negative 2.6 percent with the greatest number of net permanent and longterm departures occurring in 1979 with a net outflow of 4,2. Selected references 1996 Census, People Born Overseas. Wellington. Statistics New Zealand. Immigration Fact Pack. Wellington. New Zealand Immigration Service. New Zealand Immigration Service. http://www.immigration.govt.nz Grant Cleland, Economist Research and Analysis Group Parliamentary Library For more information contact Grant (ext.9173) Copyright NZ Parliamentary Library Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including information storage and retrieval systems, other than by Members of Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the consent of the Parliamentary Librarian, Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand. 1