The World Bank Datasets on Violence: Assessing Size & Trends of Global Violence and Conflict Benjamin Petrini Conflict, Crime and Violence Team (CCV) June 16, 2010
Three Datasets on Violence: 1. Surveys on domestic violence 2. Homicide rate per 100,000 pop. 3. Violent conflict 2
1. Domestic Violence Dataset Surveys (or single module surveys) on intimate male partner violence against women 130 studies in 71 countries between 1982-2007 Weak or no official data Main sources include DHS and WHO Intimate male partner violence. 4 types: (i) Physical violence; (ii) Sexual violence; (iii) Emotional abuse; (iv) Controlling behaviors. Definition of intimate male partner violence: in the form of physical violence, sexual abuse, emotional or psychological abuse, verbal abuse, and specific acts of violence during pregnancy. Women are also harmed by limiting their access to food and medical care, carrying out dowry deaths and honor killings, and coercing them to have sex through rape and/or sexual harassment. (DHS) This is only one manifestation of domestic violence and GBV. 3
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1. Domestic Violence Dataset Dataset entries include: Over 130 studies in 71 countries (including West Europe & N. America) Coverage: 56 studies (appx. 43%) are at national level; the rest is citylevel, or regional/provincial. Sample size: from as low as 97 respondents in Antigua (1990) to over 90,000 in India (DHS, 98-99). Median sample size is 2,037 respondents. Study population: refers to the status of the interviewed women (e.g. currently married/partnered, ever married, all women with no exception, etc.). Approximately half of the studies concern women that are ever married or partnered Age group: Respondent women are usually btw 15 & 49 years old. Bibliographical reference 5
1. Domestic Violence Dataset Findings: Considerable variation in the prevalence of violence globally, ever married women that experienced physical violence are btw 5% & 69% Regionally, the same: in AFR percentage of women experiencing violence varies between 13-57%; LCR 10-69%; EAP 10-67%; SAR 19-49%; ECA 5-58%. Limited N. of studies in each country No trend. Countries where at least one third of women ever experienced physical violence include 23 out of 65 countries: Cameroon, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, Peru, New Zealand, PNG, Samoa, Thailand, Bangladesh, India, Lithuania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Egypt. Countries where at least one third of women ever experienced physical OR sexual violence include 20 out of 34 countries 6
6 5 N. of countries & domestic violence, world DHS Surveys conducted between 1998-2007 (national coverage) 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total number of countries: 22 5 N. of countries 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 over 50 Ranges of domestic violence (%) N. of countries with physical violence value (ever) within the indicated range N. of countries with physical OR sexual violence (ever) value within the indicated range 7
60 57 Physical Violence Against Women by an Intimate Male Partner (DHS, Selected Countries, National Coverage, 2003 2007) 52 50 48 47 49 40 39 40 35 35 33 30 29 28 20 20 16 20 21 12 13 13 13 10 0 PHYSICAL VIOLENCE (%) 8
2. Homicide Rate Dataset Data on total recorded intentional Homicide rate per 100,000 population per year, 1995-2008 Definition: UNODC defines intentional homicide as "unlawful death purposefully inflicted on a person by another person." Major sources of the dataset include UNODC, UN-CTS, WHO, Interpol, and national statistics office ( Issue of comparability) Homicide Crime. However, homicide is the most accurate indicator of crime; legal definitions are closer across countries BUT, issue of reliability of data: weak capacity hampers data collection in some countries, esp. AFR. Some countries display a big discrepancy. e.g. Ivory Coast: 2.3 (Interpol, 1997), 50.8 (WHO, 2004), 0.4 (UN-CTS, 2008). 9
Homicide Rate Dataset SAR 10
Homicide level World: Ranking four levels of violence, 1999-2008 1 Homicide Rate: btw 0 & 5 2 Homicide Rate: btw 5 & 10 3 Homicide Rate: btw 10 & 20 4 Homicide Rate: more than 20 11
30 25 20 27 N. of countries & homicide levels, world, 1996-99 N. of countries with a homicide rate value within the indicated range (Total number of country: 61) N. of countries 15 10 13 9 Guatemala Jamaica Colombia S. Africa El Salvador 5 0 4 5 2 1 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 over 30 Ranges of homicide rate per 100,000 pop 12
N. of countries & homicide levels, world, 2000-03 30 N. of countries 25 20 15 25 17 N. of countries with a homicide rate value within the indicated range (Total number of country: 61) 10 5 6 3 3 2 5 0 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 over 30 Ranges of homicide rate per 100,000 pop 13
N. of countries & homicide levels, world, 2004-07 30 25 20 26 N. of countries with a homicide rate value within the indicated range (Total number of country: 61) N. of countries 15 10 16 Previous 5 + Belize & Venezuela 7 5 0 4 4 3 1 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 over 30 Ranges of homicide rate per 100,000 pop 14
3. Violent Conflict Dataset Data on armed conflicts (1991-2008) & non-state conflicts (2002-07) Main source: UCDP/PRIO Definition: An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths. (UCDP/PRIO) Definition of non-state conflict: is the use of armed force between two organized armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths. (UCDP) 2 levels of intensity: Minor conflict (25-999 battle-related deaths); War (more than 1,000) Types of Armed Conflict: (i) Internal armed conflict, i.e. civil war; (ii) Internationalized internal armed conflict (i.e. with external intervention); (iii) Interstate armed conflict; (iv) Extrasystemic conflict (i.e. colonial wars) 15
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55 Trends in Violent Conflict, World, 1946-2008 50 45 40 35 N. of conflicts 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 N. of violent conflicts, total Interstate armed conflict Internal armed conflict (i.e. civil war) Internal armed conflict with external intervention Extra-systemic wars (i.e. colonial wars) 17
Source: UCDP/PRIO, 2008 18
Wars and Minor Conflicts, 1999-2008 Minor Conflict: btw 25 & 999 Battle-related Deaths War: more than 1,000 Battle-related Deaths Source: Author s elaboration from UCDP, 2008 19
Trends in Armed Conflict, by intensity, 1946-2008 55 N. of conflicts 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 N. of conflicts, total (Minor conflicts + Wars) Minor conflicts (25-999 battlerelated deaths) 15 10 5 0 Wars (over 1,000 battlerelated deaths) Year, 1946-2008 20
Conclusions Issues of availability of data on violence: 1. Data is controversial 2. Weak national capacity at data collection 3. Changing nature of violence: What type of data? Regional trends: AFR is the region most affected by violence Violence is clustered: groups of countries have similar patterns of v. Overlap btw fragile situations & high levels of violence & conflict Hypotheses & areas for future research: 1. No clear trend: violence increased or decreased? But, tendency to polarization 2. Spiral of violence 3. Linkages between high levels of violence and violent conflict 21
Thank you Datasets on Violence: http://go.worldbank.org/nrvi5t44y0 CCV Team webpage: www.worldbank.org/conflictcrimeandviolence 22