Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) RIETI BBL Seminar Handout September 24, 2014 Speaker: Mr. Bruce STOKES http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
Japanese, American, Asian Views on Trade and Foreign Investment Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes RIETI, September 24, 2014
Pew Research Center Funded largely by the Pew Charitable Trusts Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington Research areas U.S. domestic politics Media & news Social trends Religion and public life Internet and technology Hispanics Global public opinion Since 2002, Pew has surveyed in 82 countries www.pewresearch.org September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 2
Methodology Surveys conducted across 44 countries from 17 March 2014 to 5 June 2014, totaling 48,643 respondents Based on nationally representative telephone and face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.1% - ±4.5% September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 3
Countries Surveyed in 2014 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 4
OVERVIEW September 26, 2014 5 www.pewresearch.org
Mixed Views in 44 Countries on Trade, Foreign Investment Median view that Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 6
Developing Nations More Positive about the Benefits Note: Medians by country economic categorization. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 7
90 % 83 78 Japanese and Americans Less Convinced Trade Is Good Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing 84 13 country median 81 81 78 78 75 72 72 71 73 72 Japan 69 65 66 U.S. 68 60 59 53 45 2002 Note: 13 country 2007 median based on 2008 countries surveyed 2009 in 2002, 2007-102010 and 2014. U.S. and 2011 Japan not included 2012 in 13 country median. 2013 2014 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 8
Japanese Relatively Unsure of the Benefits 15% Trade creates jobs 44% 52% 66% Trade raises wages 10 28 45 Japan Advanced Emerging Developing 55 17 Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good 31 44 Note: Medians by country economic categorization. Advanced median excludes Japan. 57 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 9
Japanese, Chinese, American Views on Trade & FDI Japan U.S. China Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs Trade decreases prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories is good 10 17 15 20 17 23 69% 68% September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 10 28 35 39 51 58 58 61 67 75 89%
U.S., Japan Among TPP, TTIP Outliers on Trade and Jobs Trade with other countries leads to job creation Note: TPP country median based on five countries (Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru & Vietnam). Excludes U.S. & Japan. TTIP country median based on five countries (Germany, Greece, Poland, Spain & UK). Excludes U.S., France & Italy. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 11
TRADE VIEWS September 26, 2014 12 www.pewresearch.org
Asians but Not Europeans Say Trade Means Jobs Trade with other countries... Creates jobs Destroys jobs Does not make a difference % % % Global median 54 19 19 Europe* 44 28 23 Middle East 59 22 16 Asia 56 15 14 Latin America 52 19 18 Africa 62 17 12 *European median does not include Russia or Ukraine. Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 13
Asians Views of Trade s Impact on Jobs Trade with other countries... September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 14
Mostly Advanced Economies Who Say Trade Destroys Jobs Trade with other countries... Creates jobs Destroys jobs Does not make a difference % % % Top 6 (35%+) Italy 13 59 23 U.S. 20 50 25 France 24 49 26 Colombia 28 42 21 Greece 44 39 15 Japan 15 38 41 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 15
Europeans Least Likely to Believe Trade Increases Wages Trade with other countries leads to worker wage Increases Decreases Does not make a difference % % % Global median 45 21 25 Europe* 28 33 33 Middle East 46 29 17 Asia 48 14 18 Latin America 41 21 29 Africa 51 20 17 *European median does not include Russia or Ukraine. Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 16
Asian Views of Trade s Impact on Wages Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia India Pakistan Malaysia South Korea Philippines Thailand Japan Trade with other countries leads to worker wage Decreases Increases 14% 5 12 61 20 56 23 49 13 48 8 47 25 45 14 41 23 39 37 10 78% 72 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 17
The Countries Most Likely to Say Trade Lowers Wages Top 10 (30%+) Trade with other countries leads to worker wage Increases Decreases Does not make a difference % % % Italy 7 52 33 Greece 21 49 27 France 14 47 38 U.S. 17 45 32 Colombia 22 43 24 Japan 10 37 46 Jordan 45 37 17 Spain 28 33 31 Germany 28 31 33 Turkey 28 31 24 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 18
Many Think Trade Increases Prices Trade with other countries leads to price Increases Decreases Does not make a difference % % % Global median 42 26 20 Europe* 35 26 35 Middle East 33 38 18 Asia 48 24 17 Latin America 43 24 21 Africa 50 25 15 *European median does not include Russia or Ukraine. Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 19
Asian Views of Trade s Impact on Prices Trade with other countries leads to price Decreases Increases Bangladesh China Indonesia Thailand Malaysia India Philippines Pakistan South Korea Vietnam Japan 25% 18 24 19 29 37 31 27 15 15 9 23 62% 58 58 52 51 48 46 42 41 39 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 20
INVESTMENT VIEWS September 26, 2014 21 www.pewresearch.org
Strongly Contrasting Views of Foreign Investment Foreign companies building factories in our country is good Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Diff % % Advanced 74 31 +43 Developing 85 57 +28 Emerging 70 44 +26 Note: Medians by country economic categorization. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 22
Asians Believe Foreigners Building Factories Is Good Foreign companies building new factories in our country is Good Bad % % Global median 74 20 Europe* 75 25 Middle East 70 29 Asia 72 20 Latin America 70 19 Africa 88 12 *European median does not include Russia or Ukraine. Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 23
Asians Divided About Foreign-led M&A Foreign companies buying domestic companies is Good Bad % % Global median 45 47 Europe* 32 66 Middle East 42 56 Asia 43 44 Latin America 55 39 Africa 57 34 *European median does not include Russia or Ukraine. Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 24
Japanese Least Likely to Say Foreign-led M&A is Good Favorable views of foreign investment Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % % Bangladesh 69 78 China 39 51 India 56 68 Indonesia 41 69 Japan 17 58 Malaysia 45 78 Pakistan 43 61 Philippines 66 78 South Korea 30 73 Thailand 41 72 Vietnam 59 80 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 25
Countries That Most Dislike Foreign M&A Top 9 (60%+) Foreign companies buying domestic companies is Good Bad % % Germany 19 79 Japan 17 76 Italy 23 73 Tunisia 25 73 South Korea 30 68 France 32 68 U.S. 28 67 Greece 31 66 Turkey 30 62 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 26
JAPANESE VIEWS September 26, 2014 27 www.pewresearch.org
Japan, U.S. Quite Wary of Global Economic Engagement Global median Japan U.S. % % % Trade destroys jobs 19 38 50 Trade lowers wages 21 37 45 Foreign companies buying domestic companies is bad 47 76 67 Note: Global medians exclude Japan & the U.S. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 28
Little Demographic Difference in Japanese Views of Trade Japanese who think Trade is good Trade increases Trade creates wages jobs Trade decreases prices % % % % Men 70 12 18 31 Women 68 7 13 23 18-29 72 7 17 42 30-49 74 8 14 32 50+ 66 11 16 20 Less than postsecondary 66 11 16 25 Post-secondary 74 9 15 29 Lower income 69 10 14 22 Upper income 69 10 17 31 Note: Bolded figures represent statistically significant differences. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 29
Young Japanese More Supportive of Greenfield Investments Foreign companies building new factories in our country is Good Bad % % Men 62 35 Women 55 34 18-29 72 28 30-49 70 27 50+ 49 40 Less than college 52 40 College degree 67 28 Lower income 55 36 Upper income 64 32 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 30
All Japanese Strongly Opposed to Foreign-led M&A Foreign companies buying domestic companies is Good Bad % % Men 20 75 Women 15 75 18-29 23 74 30-49 23 73 50+ 13 77 Less than college 14 77 College degree 21 73 Lower income 15 75 Upper income 20 76 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 31
AMERICAN VIEWS September 26, 2014 32 www.pewresearch.org
Americans Relatively Unsure of Globalization s Benefits Note: Medians by country economic categorization. Advanced median excludes U.S. September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 33
Older, Less Educated, Low Income, Female Americans Wary Trade is bad Trade decreases wages Americans who think Trade destroys jobs Trade increases prices Foreign companies buying U.S. companies is bad Foreign companies building factories in U.S. is bad % % % % % % TOTAL 28 45 50 32 67 23 Men 28 43 46 28 66 20 Women 27 48 55 35 67 26 18-29 21 43 43 35 64 19 30-49 30 44 50 34 64 22 50+ 29 48 55 28 72 26 Less than postsecondary 30 42 54 37 64 30 Post-secondary 26 48 48 28 69 19 Lower income 29 46 54 38 62 28 Upper income 25 45 47 24 72 17 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 34
Partisan Splits on Trade and Investment Trade is bad Trade decreases wages Trade destroys jobs Trade increases prices Foreign companies buying U.S. companies is bad Foreign companies building factories in U.S. is bad % % % % % % TOTAL 28 45 50 32 67 23 Republican 29 44 54 31 75 28 Independent 28 42 49 29 67 23 Democrat 26 49 50 33 66 20 Rep-Dem diff. +3-5 +4-2 +9 +8 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 35
IMPLICATONS FOR TPP September 26, 2014 36 www.pewresearch.org
Japanese Least Enthusiastic among TPP Countries Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying companies is good Foreign companies building factories is good % % % % % % Vietnam 95 72 78 31 59 80 Malaysia 87 47 57 9 45 78 Chile 85 27 52 28 53 68 Peru 81 42 55 24 59 70 Mexico 71 31 43 24 50 69 Japan 69 10 15 27 17 58 U.S. 68 17 20 35 28 75 September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 37
All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org September 26, 2014 www.pewresearch.org 38