New Era of the Chinese Economy Hongbin Cai Faculty of Business and Economics Hong Kong University October 24, 2017
Foreign Observers Are Pessimistic May 24, 2017 -- Moody's downgraded China's long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings to A1 from AA3. Sept. 21, 2017, S&P Global Ratings lowered the long-term sovereign credit ratings on China to 'A+' from 'AA-' and the short-term rating to 'A-1' from 'A-1+'.
Main Concerns Slower Growth: Moody's expects that China's growth potential to decline to close to 5% over the next five years. Growth is driven by credit expansion and debt build-up, which ultimately leads to collapse. Rising leverage: the government's direct debt burden may rise gradually towards 40% of GDP by 2018 and closer to 45% by the end of the decade. The government s indirect and contingent liabilities is also likely to increase.
But They Are Wrong Again Most major economic indicators show that the Chinese Economy has been stabilizing or improving since last year. Risk control is effective: The recent efforts by the Chinese government in tightening regulations on the financial markets and encouraging deleveraging begin to show effects. Housing market begins to cool off.
Growth Rate stabilizes 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 y/y GDP growth 5.5 5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017/10/27 5
Structural Change Speeds up Share of GDP, % 55 50 Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry 45 40 35 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6
PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) Goes up 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 Manufacturing PMI Non-manufacturing PMI 47 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7
Trade picked up substantially this year 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69-20.0-30.0 Nominal exports Nominal imports
Foreign Reserve Stabilizes and Recovers 4,000.00 3,800.00 3,600.00 3,400.00 3,200.00 3,000.00 2,800.00 2,600.00 2,400.00 2,200.00 2,000.00 Foreign reserve (bn USD) Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17
Leverage is high, but still manageable Debt/GDP, 2008-16 Debt/GDP: international comparison, 2014 Q2 300 家庭 非金融企业 日本 65101 117 234 517 250 200 150 100 50 金融机构地方政府 30 27 27 23 27 21 21 18 20 19 26 23 19 19 28 92 105 107 109 112 中央政府 32 31 38 36 28 27 27 22 27 21 18 19 121 117 122 137 英国西班牙法国意大利希腊韩国中国澳大利亚美国 86 74 183 92 435 73 108 89 132 402 56 121 93 104 374 4377 76 139 335 6568 5 183 321 81 105 56 44 286 38125 65 55 283 113 69 61 31 274 7767 36 89 269 18 24 28 28 30 34 36 40 45 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 德国 54 54 70 80 258 0 200 400 600 1 0
Why They Are Wrong Again China s Global Times: China should have collapsed many times if Western professional agencies were correct. They are always wrong because of their ideological prejudice. They focus on China s negative issues, but ignore the positive factors (secretly wishing China to fail?). China is different China changes so fast
Grand Plan For the Next Thirty Years Xi Jinping s Grand Plan: Make China Great Again by 2050 First half (2020-35): middle-income to high-income, decent living standard ( xiaokang ), p. c. GDP from currently USD 8,000 to USD 20,000 Second half (2035-2050): high-income to advanced economy, high living standard, p. c. GDP to USD 40,000 China Dream: well-off people, strong country Deng Xiaoping s Grand Plan: modernization, from poverty to middle-income. Thanks to the incredible success of the last 40 years, now enters New Era of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.
Main Theme of the New Era To satisfy people s increasing demand for good quality life by addressing the issues of unbalanced and unfulfilled development Increasing demand for good quality life As income goes up, people do not just demand more goods, but better stuff People also demand different stuff: services, culture, etc. People are increasingly concerned with environment, health, fairness, justice, etc.
Main Theme of the New Era Unbalanced and unfulfilled development Serious income and wealth inequality Regional inequality Environmental problems Inefficient health system Inadequate social security. So many things to balance, but still need to fulfil the growth potentials!
Mission Possible?
Main Theme of the New Era The main theme of Deng Xiaoping s Era is growth The main theme of Xi Jinping s New Era is balanced development with strong growth This is very ambitious, and very challenging.
Policy Programs of the New Era Continue in the direction of reform and open up Continue to emphasize the decisive roles of markets More emphasis on socialistic features of the economy War against poverty Improving Social Security system Reducing income inequality Improving growth prospects in less developed regions More emphasis on stability Prudent macro policies Control financial risks by tighter and more effective regulations Keep director control of key financial sectors and SOE sectors
Serious Challenge: Balanced Development Balanced development is hard to achieve for many developing countries Inequality seems to worsen with globalization and technological progress around the world China is a large country with 1.4 billion people, with huge regional disparity. Trying to achieve balanced development at the same time maintaining high growth rate is very challenging
Serious Challenge: Changing Growth Model From high speed growth to high quality growth Yet the ambitious Grand Plan requires a quite high speed growth rate Driving force of growth needs to change from resources, infrastructure, investments to R&D, innovation, technological progress, etc., which is certainly not easy High quality growth requires more investments in human capital than traditional capital investment And demographic trends, aging, etc.
Serious Challenge: Market and Government The success of the Deng Xiaoping s Grand Plan is to adopt the market economy and to release the potentials of entrepreneurship of Chinese people. The transformation to the market economy is not complete: decisive roles of market Yet, balanced development needs the government very smartly and actively making adjustments to achieve more desirable market outcome.
Concluding Remarks In the short run, the Chinese economy will be fine, unless.. With the conclusion of the Party Congress and new government term, the economy is likely to see strong performance. In the long run, hopeful and Cautiously optimistic
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