NEWS Release 1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, JUNE 7, 2007, 2:00 PM Democratic Leaders Face Growing Disapproval, Criticism on Iraq MIXED VIEWS ON IMMIGRATION BILL Also inside Amnesty a Negative for Men, Conservatives 56% Favor Iraq Troop Pullout Most Ever Liberal Dems Say Leaders Too Easy on Bush Plurality Favors Intervention in Darfur FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut, Director Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Pew Research Center for the People & the Press 202/419-4350 http://www.people-press.org
Democratic Leaders Face Growing Disapproval, Criticism on Iraq MIXED VIEWS ON IMMIGRATION BILL The public is ambivalent about the immigration bill being debated by the Senate. Most Americans favor one of its key objectives, but the bill itself draws a mostly negative reaction from those who have heard about it. Just a third of those who have heard something about the bill favor it, while 41% are opposed, and a relatively large minority (26%) offers no opinion. Yet one of the bill s primary goals to provide a way for people who are in this country illegally to gain legal citizenship under certain conditions wins broad and bipartisan support. Overall, 63% of the public and nearly identical numbers of Republicans, Democrats and independents favor such an approach if illegal immigrants pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs. The debate over immigration has focused in part on whether the bill currently before Congress amounts to a grant of amnesty for people who are in the U.S. illegally. In general, the public is less supportive of providing amnesty for illegal immigrants than it is of providing a way for illegal immigrants to gain citizenship. Even so, a majority of Americans (54%) say they favor amnesty for illegal immigrants already in the country if they pass background checks and meet other conditions. Limited Support for Immigration Measure, But Most Back Bill s Main Objective Opinion of current Total Rep Dem Ind immigration bill*: % % % % Favor 33 36 33 31 Oppose 41 43 37 46 Don t know 26 21 30 23 In dealing w/illegal immigrants already here Provide a way to gain legal citizenship if they meet certain conditions** Favor 63 62 64 64 Oppose 30 33 28 31 Don t know 7 5 8 5 Provide amnesty if they meet certain conditions** Favor 54 47 60 56 Oppose 39 48 35 38 Don t know 7 5 5 6 * Based on those who have heard a lot/little about the bill. ** if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs. Half of respondents asked about providing amnesty; half about providing a way to gain legal citizenship. The way in which the issue is characterized has a significant effect on Republican views. While 62% of Republicans favor providing a way for illegal immigrants currently in the country to gain legal citizenship, support declines sharply when the concept of amnesty is raised. However, even when the policy is described as providing amnesty for illegal immigrants, about as many Republicans favor (47%) as oppose (48%) the idea. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted May 30-June 3 among 1,503 adults, finds a growing majority of Americans saying
increased employer sanctions, as opposed to more border fences and patrols, can best reduce illegal immigration from Mexico. A 55% majority sees increased penalties on employers who hire illegal immigrants as the most effective way to stem cross-border immigration, up from 49% a year ago. By comparison, just 25% say increasing the number of border patrol agents is the best solution, and even fewer (7%) see more border fences as the most effective solution. More View Employer Sanctions as Best Way to Reduce Cross-Border Immigration Most effective way to March June reduce illegal immigration 2006 2007 Change from Mexico % % Increase penalties on employers 49 55 +6 Increase border patrol agents 33 25-8 Build more border fences 9 7-2 Don t know/refused 9 13 +4 100 100 The survey finds that Americans are less impressed now by the Democratic congressional leadership than when the party took control of Congress in January. While approval of the job Democratic leaders are doing has dipped only slightly from 39% in January to 34% today disapproval has grown substantially from 34% to 49%. Independents, in particular, express a much more negative opinion of Democratic congressional leaders. Fully 58% disapprove of their job performance, up from 40% in January. Democratic Leaders Face Increasing Disapproval 49 41 42 43 39 36 37 34 36 34 Among Democrats, disapproval of Democratic leaders has approximately doubled since January (from 13% to 27%). Still, a solid majority of Democrats (58%) approve of the job the party s congressional leaders are doing. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Approve Disapprove Democratic leaders in Congress also are facing criticism from both the right and the left for their handling of Iraq policy. Liberal Democrats are increasingly of the view that Democratic congressional leaders have not gone far enough in challenging President Bush s Iraq policies, while most Republicans say they have gone too far in confronting the president over Iraq. More generally, the proportion of Americans who favor removing troops from Iraq as soon as possible continues to increase. Overall, 56% favor a troop withdrawal as soon as possible the most ever in a Pew Research Center survey while 39% say the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. In addition, public optimism about U.S. efforts to train Iraqi security forces so they can replace U.S. troops has slipped significantly 42% believe the 2
U.S. is making progress in this area while 36% believe it is losing ground. This has been an aspect of the Iraq effort where majorities felt that progress was being made. Immigration Policy Despite extensive press coverage of the immigration debate, only about three-in-ten Americans (31%) say they have heard a lot about the bill before Congress that would address illegal immigration. An additional 52% say they have heard a little about the bill, while 16% have heard nothing at all. In all, about four-in-ten (38%) have either heard nothing about the bill, or even if they have heard about it decline to express an opinion of the measure. Among those with an opinion, opposition to the bill outweighs support, and this is particularly the case among the most attentive Amnesty Draws Negative Reaction Americans. Those who have heard a lot about from Men, Conservative Republicans the bill oppose the legislation by 52%-34%; among those who have not heard as much, about as many favor the bill (32%) as oppose it (34%). In general, the public is less supportive of providing amnesty for illegal immigrants than it is of providing a way for those immigrants to gain citizenship. Men and conservative Republicans, in particular, take a dim view of giving amnesty to illegal immigrants. Fully 64% of men, and an identical proportion of conservative Republicans, favor providing illegal immigrants a way to become citizens by passing background checks and meeting other conditions. But just 50% of men, and 44% of conservative Republicans, favor providing amnesty to illegal immigrants under the same conditions. College graduates also are less supportive of amnesty than of providing illegal immigrants a way to obtain citizenship. Even so, college graduates support providing Provide illegal immigrants with* Way to gain citizenship Amnesty Diff in Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav % % % % Total 63 30 54 39-9 Male 64 30 50 45-14 Female 62 30 58 33-4 18-29 73 21 67 27-6 30-49 67 27 57 36-10 50-64 58 33 47 48-11 65+ 52 41 42 47-10 Conserv Rep 64 31 44 50-20 Mod/Lib Rep 58 39 50 48-8 Independent 64 31 56 38-8 Cons/Mod Dem 62 31 58 38-4 Liberal Dem 74 22 70 26-4 College grad 75 19 63 30-12 Some college 65 31 56 42-9 HS or less 55 36 47 43-8 Heard about Immigration bill A lot 56 36 49 45-7 Little/nothing 66 28 56 36-10 Northeast 67 21 56 35-11 Midwest 59 35 48 45-11 South 63 31 52 41-11 West 64 30 62 31-2 * if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs. Half of respondents asked about providing amnesty, the other half about providing a way to gain legal citizenship. 3
amnesty for illegal immigrants by a wide margin (63%-30%). In contrast, 55% of those with a high school education or less favor providing citizenship to illegal immigrants if they meet certain conditions, and just 47% favor giving illegal immigrants amnesty. Older Americans are decidedly more skeptical than young people of providing a path to citizenship, or amnesty, to illegal immigrants. A narrow majority of those ages 65 and older (52%) favor providing a way for illegal immigrants to become citizens, while just 42% favor amnesty. By contrast, those who are under age 30 overwhelmingly support both alternatives. Sense of Urgency While the public is divided over the immigration bill currently before Congress, there is a widespread belief that the president and Congress need to act on the issue this year. Half of the public says that it is essential for the president and Congress to revise immigration laws this year; 37% say they need to do it in the next few years; and just 7% believe immigration laws do not need changing. On balance, both opponents and supporters of the immigration bill say it is essential that the president and Congress act this year to revise the laws. About half of those who oppose the current bill (51%), and 57% of the bill s supporters, say action to revise immigration laws is essential this year. Just 12% of those who oppose the current bill before Congress are of the view that immigration laws do not need changing. People who believe immigration reform is needed cite an array of concerns about illegal immigration. A plurality (34%) says their biggest concern is that illegal immigration hurts American jobs, 20% say illegal immigration increases the risk of terrorism, and 14% say it contributes to crime. Somewhat fewer (10%) express concern that illegal immigration hurts American customs and its way of life. Biggest Immigration Concern Jobs Mod/ Cons/ Cons Lib Mod Lib Total Rep Rep Ind Dem Dem % % % % % % Hurts American jobs 34 28 35 33 40 38 Increases terrorism risk 20 24 18 20 20 17 Contributes to crime 14 17 14 15 12 11 Hurts American customs 10 13 11 10 9 5 Other (Vol.) 15 14 15 17 11 16 Don t know 7 4 7 5 8 13 100 100 Based on those who say immigration laws need to be changed this year or in the next few years. For Democrats, independents and moderate and liberal Republicans, jobs surpass terrorism as illegal immigration concerns. But nearly as many conservative Republicans cite terrorism as jobs as their biggest concern about illegal immigration (28% jobs, 24% terrorism). 4