Preliminary Report #1: 49 th Congressional District Strategy Analysis February 6, 2017 Steven Koller (JD, PhD)
is analyzing the 49 th Congressional District with the objective of providing an information base to allow us to develop a winning grassroots campaign strategy that can defeat Darrell Issa and turn the 49 th Blue. Our analysis seeks to identify the voters and activists we need to reach, mobilize, and target. This includes the following universes: (a) likely Democratic voters who generally do not vote in offcycle elections, i.e., the voters we need to get to the polls in 2018; (b) potential swing voters, who we may be able to flip in 2018; (c) unregistered potential Democratic voters; and (d) strong progressives who could potentially be activated as grassroots organizers. Our analysis will also seek to understand the issues that matter most and the messaging that resonates best for our universes of target voters, as well as the modes of communication most effective at reaching these voters. We can build on this information base to advance three core goals: (1) increase voter turn-out among likely Democratic voters who generally do not vote in off-cycle elections; (2) expand Democratic voter registration; and (3) flip potential swing voters, particularly those who opposed Trump but supported Issa in 2016. This initial report is quite preliminary, and is intended to lay the groundwork for deeper investigations moving forward. It therefore neither attempts to fully address the questions outlined above, nor offers any conclusions or recommendations. The purpose of sharing the analysis broadly even at this early preliminary stage is two-fold: (1) to inform current conversations, so that the courageous blossoming of grassroots organizing efforts across the 49 th can build upon the best possible available information; and (2) to solicit feedback and input from organizers and activists across our District, which will allow the next round of analysis to dig deeper on the questions that matter most. Feel free to distribute to others committed to our shared struggle for a freer, fairer, more inclusive, and more sustainable future. Please email terra@aya.yale.edu with any questions or suggestions for the next round of analysis. Question assumptions. Organize to win. In struggle,, JD/PhD Founder & Managing Partner 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary Statistics Page I. California 49 th Congressional District 4 i. Presidential ii. Congressional iii. Vote Difference (Issa vs. Trump) iv. Vote Difference (Applegate vs. Clinton) II. California 49 th Congressional District (San Diego portion) 5 i. Presidential ii. Congressional iii. Community-level 6 III. California 49 th Congressional District (Orange County portion) 8 i. Presidential ii. Congressional iii. Community-level 9 Spatial Analysis IV. San Diego County 10 i. Total votes, 2016 10 ii. Applegate (%), 2016 11 iii. Applegate total votes, 2016 12 iv. Issa (%), 2016 13 v. Clinton (%), 2016 14 vi. Difference (Issa Applegate) [absolute], 2016 15 vii. Difference (Issa Applegate) ]%], 2016 16 viii. Difference (Clinton Applegate) [absolute], 2016 17 ix. Difference (Issa Trump) [absolute], 2016 18 2
V. Orange County 19 i. Total votes, 2016 19 ii. Applegate (%), 2016 20 iii. Applegate total votes, 2016 21 iv. Issa (%), 2016 22 v. Clinton (%), 2016 23 vi. Difference (Issa Applegate) [absolute], 2016 24 vii. Difference (Clinton Applegate) [absolute], 2016 25 viii. Difference (Clinton Applegate) [%], 2016 26 ix. Difference (Issa Trump) [absolute], 2016 27 x. Difference (Issa Trump) [%], 2016 28 3
SUMMARY STATISTICS CALIFORNIA 49 TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT NOVEMBER 8, 2016 I. California 49 th Congressional District a) Presidential Clinton/Kaine Trump/Pence Johnson/Weld Stein/Baraka Total Total votes 159,081 (50.5%) 135,576 (43.1%) 13,636 (4.3%) 5,041 (1.6%) 314,717 b) Congressional Issa Applegate Margin Total Total votes 155,888 (50.3%) 154,267 (49.7%) -1,621 (0.6%) 310,155 c) Difference Issa vs. Trump Issa Trump Margin Total votes 155,888 (50.3%) 135,576 (43.1%) 20,301 (7.2%) d) Difference Applegate vs. Clinton Applegate Clinton Margin Total votes 154,267 (49.7%) 159,081 (50.5%) -4,814 (-0.8%) 4
II. California 49 th Congressional District (San Diego portion) a) Presidential Clinton/Kaine Trump/Pence Johnson/Weld Stein/Baraka Total Total votes 125,714 (53.7%) 93,435 (39.9%) 10,281 (4.4%) 4,082 (1.7%) 233,952 b) Congressional Issa Applegate Margin Total Total votes 108,215 (46.8%) 123,167 (53.2%) 14,952 (6.4%) 231,382 5
6 c) Community-Level Issa Congress Applegate Margin Total Votes Trump/ Pence Presidential Clinton/ Johnson/ Kaine Weld Stein/ Baraka Total Votes Issa Trump Difference Applegate Clinton Buena 1,374 (53.8%) 1,178 (46.2%) -196 (-7.7%) 2,552 1,267 (48.9%) 1,195 (46.1%) 82 (3.1%) 40 (1.5%) 2,591 107 (4.9%) -17 (0.1%) Carlsbad 28,745 (49.2%) 29,649 (50.8%) 904 (1.5%) 58,394 24,379 (41.7%) 30,493 (52.1%) 2,679 (4.6%) 889 (1.5%) 58,508 4,366 (7.5%) -844 (-1.3%) Del Dios 3,870 (50%) 3,869 (50%) -1 (0.0%) 7,739 3,110 (39.3%) 4,406 (55.6%) 295 (3.7%) 96 (1.2%) 7,919 760 (10.7%) -537 (-5.6%) Del Mar 1,134 (42%) 1,569 (58%) 435 (16.1%) 2,703 871 (32.2%) 1,678 (62.1%) 111 (4.1%) 42 (1.6%) 2,704 263 (9.8%) -109 (-4.1%) Del Mar Heights 1,516 (36.1%) 2,682 (63.9%) 1,166 (27.8%) 4,198 1,161 (27.6%) 2,808 (66.9%) 168 (4%) 61 (1.5%) 4,200 355 (8.5%) -126 (-3.0%) Encinitas 13,167 (38.9%) 20,702 (61.1%) 7,535 (22.2%) 33,869 10,646 (31.1%) 21,341 (62.3%) 1,527 (4.5%) 695 (2%) 34,256 2,521 (7.8%) -639 (-1.2%) Fallbrook 399 (63.2%) 232 (36.8%) -167 (-26.5%) 631 375 (59.3%) 221 (35%) 30 (4.7%) 6 (0.9%) 632 24 (3.9%) 11 (1.8%)
7 La Jolla / UCSD 425 (17.2%) 2,044 (82.2%) 1,619 (65.6%) 2,469 312 (9%) 2,935 (84.3%) 139 (4%) 87 (2.5%) 3,480 113 (8.2%) -891 (-2.1%) Oceanside 32,773 (47.5%) 36,250 (52.5%) 3,477 (5.0%) 69,023 29,735 (42.7%) 35,420 (50.1%) 3,030 (4.4%) 1,259 (1.8%) 69,608 3,038 (4.8%) 830 (2.4%) Rancho Santa Fe 2,674 (68.1%) 1,251 (31.9%) -1,423 (-36.3%) 3,925 2,185 (56.4%) 1,507 (38.9%) 158 (4.1%) 23 (0.5%) 3,873 489 (11.7%) -256 (-7.0%) Solana Beach 3,496 (43.5%) 4,537 (56.5%) 1,041 (13.0%) 8,033 2,769 (34.4%) 4,826 (60%) 340 (4.2%) 98 (1.2%) 8,044 727 (9.1%) -289 (-3.5%) Unincorpo rated East 782 (59.9%) 524 (40.1%) -258 (-19.8%) 1,306 694 (52.7%) 544 (41.3%) 66 (5%) 13 (1%) 1,317 88 (7.2%) -20 (-1.2%) Unincorpo rated North 948 (55.8%) 752 (44.2%) -196 (-11.5%) 1,700 970 (54.4%) 625 (35%) 146 (8.2%) 37 (2.1%) 1,784-22 (-1.4%) 127 (9.2%) Vista 15,873 (47.7%) 17,420 (52.3%) 1,547 (4.6%) 33,293 14,105 (42.1%) 17,101 (51%) 1,462 (4.4%) 727 (2.2%) 33,509 1,768 (5.6%) 319 (1.3%) Whisperin g Palms 1,039 (67.2%) 508 (32.8%) -531 (-34.3%) 1,547 856 (56.1%) 614 (40.2%) 48 (3.1%) 9 (0.5%) 1,527 183 (11.1%) -106 (-7.4%)
III. California 49 th Congressional District (Orange County portion) a) Presidential Clinton/Kaine Trump/Pence Johnson/Weld Stein/Baraka Total Total votes 33,367 (41.3%) 42,141 (52.2%) 3,355 (4.2%) 959 (1.2%) 80,765 b) Congressional Results Issa Applegate Total Total votes 47,673 (60.5%) 31,100 (39.5%) 78,773 8
9 c) Community-Level Issa Congress Applegate Margin Total Votes Trump/ Pence President Clinton/ Johnson/ Kaine Weld Stein/ Baraka Total Votes Issa Trump Difference Applegate Clinton Dana Point 10,087 (58.6%) 7,114 (41.4%) -2,973 (-17.3%) 17,201 8,960 (50.9%) 7,507 (42.6%) 705 (4.0%) 245 (1.4%) 17,604 1,127 (7.7%) -393 (-1.3%) Ladera Ranch 6,098 (62.9%) 3,593 (37.1%) -2,505 (-25.8%) 9,691 5,185 (51.6%) 4,200 (41.8%) 447 (4.5%) 76 (0.8%) 10,041 913 (11.3%) -607 (-4.8%) Mission Viejo 486 (52.3%) 444 (47.7%) -42 -(4.5%) 930 438 (44.6%) 477 (48.5%) 32 (3.3%) 11 (1.1%) 983 48 (7.7%) -33 (0.8%) Ortega 2,441 (59.5%) 1,662 (40.5%) -779 (-19.0%) 4,103 2,117 (49.2%) 1,885 (43.8%) 196 (3.3%) 44 (1.1%) 4,299 324 (10.2%) -223 (-3.3%) San Clemente 19,338 (61.6%) 12,059 (38.4%) -7,279 (-23.2%) 31,397 17,237 (53.8%) 12,621 (39.4%) 1,417 (4.4%) 394 (1.1%) 32,033 2,101 (7.8%) -562 (-1.0%) San Juan Capistrano 9,223 (59.7%) 6,228 (40.3%) -2,995 (-19.4%) 15,451 8,204 (51.9%) 6,677 (42.2%) 535 (3.4%) 177 (1.1%) 15,805 1,019 (7.8%) -449 (-1.9%) TOTAL: 47,673 (60.5%) 31,100 (39.5%) -16,573 (21.0%) 78,773 42,141 (52.2%) 33,367 (41.3%) 3,332 (4.1%) 947 (1.2%) 80,765 5,532 (8.3%) -2,267 (-1.8%)
Spatial Analysis IV. i. San Diego County 10
ii. 11
iii. 12
iv. 13
v. 14
vi. 15
vii. 16
viii. 17
ix. 18
V. Orange County i. 19
ii. 20
iii. 21
iv. 22
v. 23
vi. 24
vii. 25
viii. 26
ix. 27
x. 28