Maitland Political Insight General Election January 2015
General Election 2015 Contents Introduction..3 Election Roadmap......4 Polling...5 Party Platforms....6 Marginal Seats.7 Marginal Seat Profiles.8 TV Debates (Part 1)......9 TV Debates (Part 2)..10 Elections in History....11 2
Conservative Conference Introduction 2014 Welcome to what is the ninth edition of the Maitland Political Insight, which we have been publishing for almost a year now. Despite still being ten weeks away from the dissolution of parliament and the short campaign, the general election campaign is now well under way. May s general election is the toughest to call in decades. To many, the Labour party has yet to convince that they are fit for office, whilst the Conservatives appear to have presided over a vote-less economic revival. Liberal Democrat support may have collapsed, but they may well become, ironically, beneficiaries of the first-past-the-post system retaining more Parliamentary seats than their share of the vote should allow. On top of all this, UKIP and the Greens have emerged as a disruptive influence with the potential to cut into large swathes of Conservative and Labour support. The different parties will all be doing their best to get their campaigns central message out front and centre in the coming weeks. The Conservatives will hope the debate centres on leadership and the economy, whilst Labour hopes to shift the focus towards standard of living and, in particular, the NHS, believing that to be its trump card. With UKIP and the Greens drawing in the oxygen of publicity, we could see jockeying for attention on an unprecedented scale. Post-election scenarios, in the case of a hung parliament, are giving journalists plenty to scribble about. According to the bookies, and they tend to know, there is currently around a 30% chance of one party winning outright, a 50% chance of a relatively stable, if more informal, coalition and a 20% chance of an unstable coalition arrangement that could quickly lead to a second General Election like 1974. In this Insight you will find analysis and information of the current state of play with only 100 days to go until polling day. We have provided information on the main events in the lead up to May 7 th, profiles of key marginal constituencies and analysis of what the TV debates mean for the participants. This will provide a flavour of the more detailed political analysis we will bring you in the weeks and months ahead. All of us at Maitland Political will be working hard to produce new and insightful election content to help you better understand the latest developments. Keep an eye out for our new weekly election round up, summarising the week s big stories, publishing our own poll of polls and unique analysis from one of our consultants. While this election promises to be one of the hardest to predict in a generation, one thing is for certain: it ll keep us on the edge of our seats. Yours faithfully, Pete Bowyer, Managing Partner of Maitland Political 3
UKIP Election Conference Roadmap 2014 18 th March 2015: The Budget 25 th March 2015: Final PMQs 30 th March 2015: Dissolution of Parliament April 2015: Parties launch manifestos April 2015: TV Leaders Debates 30 th April 2015: Postal votes sent out 7 th May 2015: Polls open 4
UKIP Conference Polling 2014 Polling companies have always kept us well fed on a regular diet of stats, data and predictions. The graph below (from BBC News) represents the various polling fortunes of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats UKIP and Greens over the current parliament. Find below our analysis of the fluctuating numbers at key points over the last parliament. 1) 2) 3) 6) 4) 5) KEY MOMENTS 1) May 2010: Lib Dems join the coalition government, seeing their support steadily decline. 2) September 2010: Ed Miliband becomes Labour leader, giving the party a small poll boost over the months that follow. 3) March 2012: Chancellor George Osborne delivers his budget which includes a number of policy reversals on proposed tax changes. Conservative ratings fall well behind Labour. 4) May 2013: Success in the local elections sees UKIP support rise above the Lib Dems. 5) May 2014: UKIP secure first place in the European elections, helping cement their thirdplace position in the polls. 6) January 2015: A recovering economy and falling inflation have helped put the Conservatives back on level terms with Labour. The Greens meanwhile see their numbers approach double figures going into the New Year. 5
UKIP Conference 2014 Party Platforms The election will see all parties not just jostling for attention, but actively seeking to put their headline policies at the top of the agenda. Each party has a handful of select policy areas which they perceive to be their strengths. They will hope that a focused debate on these issues will prove beneficial to their electoral fortunes. Find below a basic outlining of the policy areas each party will be hoping are in the spotlight come next May. Conservatives Economy Taxes Benefits Labour NHS Cost of Living Housing Liberal Democrats Taxes Mental Health Education UKIP Immigration Europe Spending Greens Environment Wages Trident SNP Scotland NHS Taxes Plaid Cymru Wales Wages Energy DUP Northern Ireland Policing Power Sharing 6
UKIP Marginal Conference Seats 2014 Marginal seats will prove crucial to the outcome of the next election and who holds the keys to Number 10 come May 2015. Find below our selection of 30 marginals which in our view represent a wide variety of constituencies across the UK and will be vital to the competition for power. Each week we will provide a snapshot profile of each of the seats listed below, as part of our weekly election summary with first five on the following page to kick it off 30 17 14 24 3 25 8 1 6 26 15 20 4 21 13 28 7 11 5 23 22 12 16 10 2 9 27 18 19 29 Conservative Held 1. Blackpool North 2. Brentford & Isleworth 3. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale 4. Gloucester 5. Great Yarmouth 6. Lancaster & Fleetwood 7. North Warwickshire 8. Stockton South 9. Thanet South 10. Thurrock 11. Sherwood 12. Ipswich Labour Held 13. Derby North 14. Falkirk 15. Great Grimsby 16. Hampstead & Kilburn 17. Ochil & South Perthshire 18. Plymouth Moor View 19. Southampton Itchen 20. Telford Green Held 29. Brighton Pavilion Liberal Democrat Held 21. Cardiff Central 22. Cambridge 23. Norwich South 24. East Dunbartonshire 25. Berwick-upon-Tweed 26. Manchester Withington 27. North Cornwall 28. Solihull SNP Held 30. Perth & North Perthshire 7
UKIP Marginal Conference Seat Profiles 2014 HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN Incumbent: Glenda Jackson MP (Lab) Majority: 42 PPCs: Tulip Siddiq (Lab), Simon Marcus (Con) Latest Poll: 47% (Lab) 30% (Con) NORTH CORNWALL Incumbent: Dan Rogerson MP (LD) Majority: 2,981 PPC: Scott Man (Con) Latest Poll: 33% (LD) 33% (Con) THURROCK Incumbent: Jackie Doyle-Price MP (Con) Majority: 92 PPC: Tim Aker (UKIP) Latest Poll: 36% (UKIP) 28% (Con) BLACKPOOL NORTH Incumbent: Paul Maynard MP (Con) Majority: 2,150 PPC: Sam Rushworth (Lab) Latest Poll: 35% (Con) 32% (Lab) BRIGHTON PAVILLION Incumbent: Caroline Lucas MP (Green) Majority: 1,252 PPC: Purna Sen (Lab) Latest Poll: 38% (Green) 28% (Lab) 8
UKIP TV Debates Conference (Part 2014 1) Having been a prominent and brand-new feature of the 2010 elections, it is widely expected that TV debates will make a return this time round, despite ongoing wrangles between parties and broadcasters. Find below our analysis of what the debates mean for each individual political party. CONSERVATIVES Strategically the broadcasters have called the Prime Minister s bluff by responding positively to his insistence that the Greens should also take part. There remains a risk that the TV debates will leave them open to attack particularly on issues like the NHS, and that the other leaders will gang up on the PM, particularly in the BBC and ITV s seven-party debates. Having said that, a Cameron vs Miliband contest should be something the party is comfortable with, given the former s higher poll ratings on leadership, trust and the economy. LABOUR Despite the obvious concern over a public debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband, the TV debates provide a brilliant opportunity for the Labour Party. As the opposition party it provides Ed Miliband a public platform to attack the Conservative party over their record in Government, belittle the Liberal Democrats for failing to keep to 2010 election pledges and announce new policy ideas. Strategically, the Labour party would have preferred the debates without the inclusion of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and especially the Green Party as these parties present a direct challenge for votes, with the Green s recently absorbing some Labour voters. However, Ed Miliband will be confident that the debates will present a bigger challenge for the Conservatives. LIBERAL DEMOCRATS The debates last time proved a major boost for the Lib Dems during the campaign, although in the end they did not lead to an increase in seats. This time the debates will be crucial for the Lib Dems to set out their record in Government on their own terms, while the other two parties will want to focus only on each other in an effort to squeeze the vote of the smaller parties. With another coalition likely, the debates will also allow the Lib Dems to set out what they will bring to the table in any negotiations after 7 May. 9
UKIP TV Debates Conference (Part 2014 2) UKIP UKIP are anxious to secure their inclusion in the debates not only to guarantee as much publicity as possible, but also because of their belief that in Nigel Farage they have the most charismatic candidate and so a real chance of winning the contests. This confidence stems from his widely acknowledge success against Nick Clegg in the two televised debates during last year s European elections, when the viewing public overwhelmingly backed the UKIP leader. Still, some are wary that under the studio lights and forensic questioning Farage may stumble and some of the party s weaknesses, particularly on detailed policy matters, may prove to be their downfall. GREENS The Green Party s recent surge in the polls and membership has seen them offered a coveted place on the debate podium. Seen by many as the UKIP of the left, they have the potential to be a disruptive influence, with a radical agenda and nothing to lose attitude. Like many of the other smaller parties, the Greens are desperate for the oxygen of publicity the debates can supply. Despite this, recent coverage of some of their more outlandish policy proposals mean a post-debate poll bump is by no means guaranteed. SNP & PLAID CYMRU The inclusion of the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru in the latest proposal from the broadcasters was a surprise to some. As they will not be on the ballot in the majority of constituencies, their inclusion has been questioned. However given the close nature of the election and surges in support for the Scottish Nationlists, they may well have a crucial role yet to play in supporting a the post May 2015 government. 10
UKIP Elections Conference in History 2014 1979 Margaret Thatcher had already managed to rock the political establishment by usurping Ted Heath as Conservative Party leader, but now she faced the voters. The country asked whether the UK was ready for a female Prime Minister and got its answer as Thatcher won a resounding majority. The rest, as they say, is history. 1992 A post-thatcher Conservative party, led by John Major went to the polls against a confident Labour opposition. Despite numerous predictions of a hung parliament or slim Labour majority, Major s Tories emerged triumphant, receiving the most votes in the party s history. 1997 Out of power for 18 years, the Labour Party invested its hopes in the young, charismatic Tony Blair. He duly repaid their faith by sweeping into Number 10 with the party s biggest ever majority and simultaneously ending 18 years of Conservative rule. 11
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