THE 34 TH ANNUAL KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY Perspectives on a City in Transition Dr. Stephen Klineberg Kinder Houston Area Survey Luncheon April 30, 2015
THE 34 TH KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (2015) Systematic interviews conducted with representative samples of the residents from Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties, focused on four central topics: Economic Outlooks Interethnic Relations County Differences Social Agenda 2
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2015) 100 90 Percent rating job opportunities as excellent or good 80 70 60 71 68 58 58 60 69 50 30 36 43 42 41 35 48 20 10 0 11 25 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 3 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Economic Outlooks
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982-2015) 10.5 9.8 10.1 Official unemployment rates in Harris County Negative ratings of job opportunities 100 90 9.5 80 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 8.6 7.8 6.8 6.6 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 7.3 6.8 5.7 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 4.3 70 60 50 30 20 10 0 4 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Economic Outlooks
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2015) 80 Traffic 70 71 70 Economy Crime 60 50 51 47 44 30 20 10 0 26 10 30 14 27 35 10 25 39 37 26 31 23 19 16 20 15 16 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 28 21 18 YEAR OF SURVEY 5 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Economic Outlooks
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA, AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009-2015) 100 90 "Over the past three years, has traffic in the Houston area generally gotten better, gotten worse, or has it stayed about the same?" "Which of these proposals would be the best long-term solution to the traffic problems in the Houston area?" 80 70 60 65 59 56 53 2009 2011 2013 2015 50 30 20 10 31 31 28 24 16 15 12 6 33 33 27 26 27 27 23 21 44 42 43 0 Worse Same Better Highways Urbanism Transit 6 Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Economic Outlooks
ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION, AND THE QUALITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA (2005-2015) Very worried that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime. Very concerned about the effects of air pollution on your family s health. Living conditions in the Houston area have been getting better. 50% 31% 33% 29% 42% 36% 37% 34% 38% 05 07 09 11 13 15 05 07 09 11 13 15 05 07 09 11 13 15 7 Source: 2005-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Economic Outlooks
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS IMPORTANCE OF POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION (2015) 100 90 "For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school education?" 80 76 75 70 66 68 60 50 53 44 30 32 23 23 32 20 10 0 Total sample Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school 8 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Economic Outlooks
Interethnic Relations
POPULATION IN MILLIONS THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 4 7.7% Asians 3 2 1 0 0.3% 19.8% 73.9% 1,243,258 6.0% 0.8% 9.9% Asians 20.1% Latinos Blacks Anglos 69.2% 1,741,912 2.1% 15.5% Asians Latinos Blacks 19.7% Anglos 62.7% 2,9,547 4.1% Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1% Anglos 54.0% 2,818,199 6.7% Asians Latinos 32.9% Blacks 18.2% Anglos 42.1% 3,0,578 Asians Latinos.8% Blacks 18.4% Anglos 33.0% Latinos Blacks Anglos 4,092,459 10 Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1980 11 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1990 12 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2000 13 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Interethnic Relations
HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2010 14 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Interethnic Relations
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY IN HARRIS COUNTY (2013) Non-Hispanic Whites All Others 79 78 76 76 76 71 72 70 60 60 49 51 53 47 21 22 24 24 24 29 28 30 15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Interethnic Relations
ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2015) 60% 27% 21% Percent rating ethnic relations as excellent or good 48% 49% 35% 38% 33% 27% 59% 56% 53% Anglos 48% 46% Latinos 45% 37% 36% Blacks 35% 14% 10% 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: 1992-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Interethnic Relations
ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY (2009-2015) Percent of respondents agreeing 90% 83% 54% 55% 69% 72% 64% 71% 72% 52% 47% 60% 59% Admit the same number or more legal immigrants. For: granting a path to legal citizenship. The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture. 0% 09 11 13 15 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 09 11 13 15 17 Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Interethnic Relations
THE THREE LARGEST COUNTIES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION The nine counties: 6.2 million 9,434 sq. mi. Montgomery County Area: 1,077 sq. mi. Population: 485,225 Fort Bend County Area: 885 sq. mi. Population: 628,443 COUNTY DIFFERENCES Source: ACS 2011-13 Three-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau Harris County Area: 1,777 sq. mi. Population: 4.26 m
ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN HOUSTON S THREE LARGEST COUNTIES (2013) 100% 90% 80% 8 20 4 22 100% 90% 80% 10 19 14 10 21 Adults 25 years and older 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 41 18 32 24 21 36 4 70 Asians/Others Latinos Blacks Anglos 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 27 24 21 28 28 18 30 25 12 14 Graduate or professional degree Bachelor's degree Some college, Associate's degree High school graduate Less than high school 0% Harris (N=4,255,830) Fort Bend (N=628,443) Montgomery (N=485,225) 0% Harris (N=2,657,083) Fort Bend (N=395,806) Montgomery (N=313,196) 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2013 ACS 3-year estimates County Differences
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE COUNTIES (2015) Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 21.2 11.4 28.1 23.8 8.0.4 24.6 10.0 27.8 18.4 20.9 13.0 14.8 20.8 16.8 Traffic Crime Economy All other concerns DK/RF 20 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015) 90 Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 80 70 60 50 60 60 70 63 53 54 71 63 67 49 54 45 30 20 10 0 The increasing immigration into this country mostly strengthens American culture. The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a good thing. Favor granting illegal immigrants in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. Ratings of the relations among ethnic groups as either "good" or "excellent." 21 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR WALKABLE URBANISM (2015) 70 Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 60 54 50 49 39 43 45 45 38 49 43 42 38 30 20 10 0 Prefer area with mix of developments, including homes, shops, and restaurants. Improving public transportation is the best solution to traffic problems. Percent who own a bicycle. Percent wishing they could ride a bicycle more often. 22 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PARTY AFFILIATION (2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 32 41 53 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 23 45 18 41 18 29 Republicans Independent/Other/DK Democrats 0% Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 23 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey County Differences
COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES (2015) 90 80 Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 75 70 60 62 56 66 50 45 47 37 50 30 28 31 30 20 10 0 Government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses. "Very concerned" about environmental issues in general. Favor a law making it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion. Favor the death penalty for persons convicted of murder. 24 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey County Differences
SOCIAL AGENDA
ANTI-ABORTION AND PRO-CHOICE IN HARRIS COUNTY (1999-2015) 100% 61% 59% 63% 58% Opposed to a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion. Believe that abortion is morally wrong. 0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 26 Source: 1999-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey Social Agenda
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2015) 70 60 Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages." 50 Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children." 47 49 51 51 37 41 38 42 43 45 43 47 30 31 32 27 28 35 35 37 27 20 17 10 91 93 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 27 Source: 1991-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Social Agenda
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993-2015) 80 75 70 66 60 50 62 66 58 67 60 58 61 57 56 30 41 34 32 39 37 30 28 20 Favor "the death penalty for persons convicted of murder." 10 0 93 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 YEAR OF SURVEY The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, "should generally be the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder." 28 Source: 1993-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Social Agenda
CENTRAL FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SURVEY Economic Outlooks Ratings of job opportunities have continued to improve, despite the recent slump in oil prices, and traffic has become the predominant concern. Interethnic Relations After a downturn in ratings of ethnic relations, area residents this year are more optimistic about the burgeoning diversity and more positive in their views of immigrants. County Differences Social Agenda Despite county contrasts in ethnicity, density, education and politics, there are only slight differences in assessments of diversity and in the preference for walkable urbanism. Area residents are personally opposed to abortion but they support the right to choose, and they are rethinking their views on same-sex marriage and the death penalty.
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