Trends in international higher education

Trends in international higher education 1

Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia

Student Insight Longitudinal survey, running since 2007 Over 180,000 responses collected globally How? with the cooperation of the British Council network and strategic partners No destination country bias

What are the most important factors when choosing a host country for study abroad? Quality of education Career prospects Internationally recognised qualifications Opportunities for employment while studying University reputation

From what countries are students interested in Australia as a study destination? China Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan Thailand India

What is your preferred subject area of study? Business and administrative studies Engineering and technology Computer science English language Social studies (economics, politics, etc.)

Drivers of international higher education Sustainable growth in an international student market is dependent on numerous factors Demographics Economics Changes in political conditions Growth in education provision Digital technology Cultural impact Global workforce demands/skills gaps Language 9

Drivers of international student mobility: Demographics There exists a positive correlation between university aged populations and tertiary enrolments

World population prospects, the 2012 Revision 11

Population aged 15-24, by major regions 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania 12

Demographic trends to 2024: Tertiary age (18-22) population growth 13

Diverging demographic trends across origin markets 14

Rural and urban population forecast 15

Drivers of international student mobility: Economics There exists a positive relationship between household wealth (GDP per capita) and tertiary enrolments 16

Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) All countries 6.0 A l l v log(enrolment rate) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 CUBA GREECE FI NLAND UKRAI NE AUSTRALI DENMARK BELARUS HUNGARY ESTONI A I A BELGI TALY UM BULGARI CROATI CZECH I A REPUBLI SRAEL FRANCE JAPAN I CELAND I RELAND AUSTRI C A GEORGI JORDAN KAZAKHSTAN RUSSI AN LI LATVI THUANI NEW A A ZEALAND NORWAY POLAND FEDERATI SLOVENI ON SWEDEN UNI A TED STATES LEBANON ROMANI NETHERLANDS PANAMA A PORTUGAL UNI SPAIN TED KI NGDOM y = 0.80x - 3.88 THAI LAND URUGUAY VENEZUELA SLOVAKIA SWI TZERLAND A ARMENI COLOMBI APERU PHI LI PPI NES TUNISIA TURKEY R 2 = 0.77 A MEXI CO EL SALVADOR CHI NA ALGERI A TAJI KI STAN I NDONESI A AZERBAI SOUTH MAURI AFRI JAN TI CA US I NDI AMOROCCO UZBEKI GUYANA YEMEN STAN CAPE VERDE GUATEMALA CAMEROON GUI GHANA BENI NEA CAMBODI N NAMI BI A PAKI A STAN LESOTHO SWAZI LAND BURUNDI ETHI MADAGASCAR OPI BURKI A NA FASO 0.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 log(gdp per capita, PPP $)

Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) Developed countries 5 v log(enrolment rate) 4 GREECE FI NLAND NEW SLOVENI ZEALAND A SWEDEN DENMARK UNI TED STATES LATVI A NORWAY RUSSI AN FEDERATI ON HUNGARY AUSTRALI I CELAND A POLAND ESTONI A SPAIN I TALY BELGI UM I SRAEL UNI FRANCE JAPAN TED KI NETHERLANDS NGDOM I RELAND PORTUGAL CZECH REPUBLI C AUSTRI A SWI TZERLAND y = -0.00x + 4.21 R 2 = 0.00 3 Emerging markets 5.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 y = 7.60x - 13.24 log(gdp per capita, PPP $) 4.0 R 2 = 0.68 log(enrolment rate) 3.0 2.0 1.0 BURUNDI CUBA UKRAI NE BELARUS KAZAKHSTAN THAI LAND LEBANON BULGARI URUGUAY ROMANI VENEZUELA A PANAMA GEORGI JORDAN A ARMENI APERU PHI LI PPI NES COLOMBI TUNISIA TURKEY A MEXI CO EL SALVADOR CHI NA ALGERI A TAJI KI STAN I NDONESI A AZERBAI SOUTH MAURI AFRI TI US JAN CA I NDI A MOROCCO GUYANA UZBEKI YEMEN STAN CAPE VERDE GUATEMALA CAMEROON GUI GHANA NEA NAMI BI A BENI CAMBODI N PAKI STAN SWAZI LAND LESOTHO MADAGASCAR ETHI OPI A BURKI NA FASO 0.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 log(gdp per capita, PPP $)

Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) v

World GDP growth (2002-2024) v

Economics: GDP per capita growth (2013-2024) 21

Tertiary enrolment forecast v Top tertiary enrolments (2012) China India Top tertiary enrolments (2024) India China United States United States Russia Indonesia

Forecasted tertiary enrolments to 2024 24

Annual average growth in tertiary enrolments v Nigeria 6.4% Indonesia 5.3% Pakistan 5.2% India 4.5% Saudi Arabia 3.4% Mexico 2.6% Turkey 1.3% Malaysia 1.3% Spain 1.3% France 1.3% China 1.1% United States 0.6% Vietnam 0.4% Canada 0.1% Italy -0.2% Thailand -0.2% Iran -0.4% Germany -0.6% Greece -0.9% Russian Federation -1.7% Poland -2.1% Republic of Korea -2.4% Taiwan -2.5%

Global student mobility, 2014 27

Postgraduate student mobility trends to 2024 Research aim: Forecast the landscape for postgraduate mobility to 2024 by studying demographic and economic drivers of demand 28

Model market coverage 29

Highest number of outbound postgraduates v 201 2 China India Korea Saudi Arabia United States Taiwan Canada Iran France Nigeria 2024 China India Nigeria Saudi Arabia United States Iran Korea Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam

Outbound postgraduates to selected destinations 31

China and India growth index (2012 = 100) 32

Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to 2024 33

Annual average change in inbound postgraduates Change (% annual ave.) 2007-2012 Australia 2.4% 4.1% Change (% annual ave.) 2012-2024 Canada 6.8% 4.1% United States 2.9% 4.0% Germany 3.4% 3.6% United Kingdom 4.1% 3.5% Japan 5.4% 1.6% 34

Inbound PG flows attributable to China and India 35

Top five bilateral flows to 2024 Seven of the top ten largest bilateral flows will be from China or India to host destinations 36

Postgraduate flows to Australia to 2024 38

Key findings of postgraduate research The US will continue to be the largest postgraduate host destination to 2024, though Canada and Australia will grow at a quicker pace India and China to fuel growth in outbound postgraduates Particular destination markets will be heavily dependent on these China and India Significant postgraduate growth in other key nations: Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam 39

All generalisations are false, including this one. Alexander Chase, journalist

Thank you! Download Postgraduate student mobility trends to 2024 for free on our website: https://ei.britishcouncil.org 41