Gulf Region: Changing the Status Quo?

International Conference Gulf Region: Changing the Status Quo? Tuesday, May 22, 2012 Venue: Mirror Hall, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, Loretánské nám. 5, Prague

Conference Synopsis This conference will focus on the geopolitical importance of the Gulf Region. The rivalry among regional actors remains high. The region is highly militarized and dependent on fossil fuel exports. Sectarian and ethnic cleavages are a source of friction in many of the countries throughout the region. Authoritarian rule appears deeply entrenched and resilient. The Arab uprisings raised the question about a possible public uprising among the traditional monarchies, as well as republics. US withdrawal from Iraq has an impact on the security of the country, as well as the region as a whole. Iran s nuclear ambitions could change the current status quo of the region dramatically. Last but not least, the crisis in Syria has an impact on the position of Iran in the region and the future of the Middle East Peace Process. The aim of this conference is to improve our understanding of the current situation in the Gulf States and the impact of the Arab uprisings on the region. A special focus of the conference is on Iran and its neighbors. Irena Kalhousová Chief Analyst Prague Security Studies Institute The Prague Security Studies Institute and Heinrich Böll Foundation would like to especially recognize the generous support and assistance of the Embassy the United States in the Czech Republic and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Czech Republic, without which this conference would not be possible.

Conference Program 8.45 Registration 9.00 9.30 Opening remarks Jiří Schneider, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic David J. Gainer, Cultural Attaché of the U.S. Embassy Prague, Czech Republic Eva van de Rakt, Director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation Prague, Czech Republic Irena Kalhousová, Chief Analyst of the Prague Security Studies Institute, Czech Republic 9.30 11.15 Panel I: Arab Uprisings and Its Impact on the Gulf Region What conclusions can we draw from the impact of the Arab uprisings on the domestic situation in the countries of the Gulf region? Which country(ies) in the Gulf region could experience a public uprising similar to Tunisia and Egypt? How do social and economic realities affect the stability of authoritarian regimes in the region? How do these regimes try to preserve their stability? With Egypt in transition and Syria in turmoil, how has the security status quo in the Gulf region changed? How have the Arab uprisings influenced civil societies of the Gulf region? How will internal dynamics change in the Gulf States in the face of fossil fuel exports, population growth, food imports, and environmental challenges? Speakers: Khaled Almezaini, Visiting Research Fellow, Department of Middle Eastern and Asian Studies, University of Cambridge, GB Mehran Kamrava, Director, Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar Toby Matthiesen, Research Fellow, Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Cambridge, GB David R. Roberts, Deputy Director, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Qatar Chair: Erik Siegl, Program Coordinator, Heinrich Böll Foundation Prague, Czech Republic 11.15 11.30 Coffee break 11.30 13.15 Panel II: Iran and Its Neighbors How stable is Iran s regime in light of its domestic political infighting and its worsening economic situation? What are the interests of Iran and its present regime in the region? Who are its allies and its rivals in the region? How do they deal with Iran? How do the Arab uprisings influence Iran s leverage in the region? What price is Iran willing to pay to become a nuclear power? What are the consequences of the Western sanctions against the Iranian regime and the population? Is there a future and, if yes, what kind of future does the reform movement in Iran have? Speakers: Jubin Goodarzi, Professor, Webster University Geneva, Iran/Switzerland David Menashri, Founding Director, Alliance Center of Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University and President of the College of Law and Business, Israel Walter Posch, Research Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Germany Chair: Irena Kalhousová, Chief Analyst, Prague Security Studies Institute, Czech Republic 13.15 14.15 Lunch

Speakers Panel I Khaled Almezaini Khalid Almezaini is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Department of Middle Eastern and Asian Studies at the University of Cambridge. He holds his diplomas both in fields of Politics and Translation of English/ Arabic texts. In 2009, he earned his Doctorate at University of Exeter in Politics, by a thesis concerned with United Arab Emirates foreign policy. His latest publication is The UAE and Foreign Policy: Foreign Aid, Identities and Interests (2011). Currently, he is working on the book Political Survival and National Identities in the Middle East: the UAE and Jordan. Dr. Almezaini is also the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Arab Studies. For four years, Dr. Almezaini worked as a freelance consultant at Jane s Information Group concentrating on strategic affairs of the Gulf States, with particular focus on the UAE, Oman and Qatar. Mehran Kamrava Mehran Kamrava is a Professor and Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown University s School of Foreign Service in Qatar. He is the author of a number of books, most recently, The Modern Middle East: A Political History since the First World War and Iran s Intellectual Revolution. His edited books include The International Politics of the Persian Gulf and Innovation in Islam: Traditions and Contributions as well as The Political Economy of the Persian Gulf and The Nuclear Question in the Middle East. Professor Kamrava obtained his PhD in Social and Political Sciences at the University of Cambridge and his BA in Political Science and History at the California State University Northridge. Toby Mattiesen Toby Matthiesen is a Research Fellow in Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at Pembroke College, University of Cambridge. He has published in The New York Review of Books, The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Middle East Report, The Middle East Journal, al-akhbar and Neue Zürcher Zeitung and has appeared on various radio stations, including BBC Arabic, WDR, ORF and DRS. Dr. Mattiesen also worked as a Gulf consultant for the International Crisis Group. In 2011, he was awarded a PhD from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, for his dissertation on The Shia of Saudi Arabia: Identity Politics, Sectarianism and the Saudi State. David R. Roberts David Roberts serves as a Deputy Director at the Royal United Service Institute in Doha. Since 2007, he has been a doctoral candidate at the Centre for the Advanced Study of the Arab World at the University of Durham. His main field of focus is Qatar s foreign relations and security. Between 2007 and 2009, Mr. Roberts worked as an intern at Centre for Iranian Studies at University of Durham. He has earned two Master s degrees, in International relations at University of St. Andrews and in Diplomacy at University of Nottingham. Mr. Roberts substantively contributes with op-eds and analysis articles to various publications such as Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The Guardian, The Kuwaiti Times and others. Erik Siegl Erik Siegl currently works as the Program Coordinator at the Heinrich Böll Foundation Prague being on leave from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. Between years 2001 2009 he worked at various positions in this Ministry, e.g. as the Political Secretary at the Czech Embassy in Berlin and in the Department of Human Rights and Transition Policy (also with responsibility for the Near East region). He is also an external PhD candidate at the Institute for Near East and Africa at Charles University writing his thesis on the late Turkish Prime minister Turgut Özal s concept of secularism and modernization. Erik Siegl occasionally publishes articles on foreign affairs and human rights in Czech journals.

Panel II Jubin Goodarzi Jubin Goodarzi is a Professor and Researcher in the International Relations Department at Webster University Geneva, and has been a Consultant on Middle Eastern affairs with the United Nations since 1996. He has worked with a number of US and UK research institutes and foundations, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) in London, and the Ford Foundation in New York. Dr. Goodarzi is author of Syria and Iran: Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East, and numerous articles and book reviews on the international relations of the Middle East. He holds a Bachelor s degree in International Studies from American University, a Master s degree in Arab Studies from Georgetown University, and a Doctorate in International Relations from the London School of Economics. David Menashri David Menashri is President of the Academic Center of Law and Business in Ramat Gan. He is the Founding Director of the Center for Iranian Studies and Professor at the Department of Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv University. His main field of academic research is history and politics of modern Iran, Shi i Islam and history of education in the Muslim world. He has been a visiting Fulbright scholar at Princeton and Cornell University and a Visiting Professor, among others, at Yale, Oxford and Chicago University. Mr. Menashri s most recent publication is the edited volume (together with Liora Hendelman-Baavur) of Iran: Anatomy of Revolution (2009). His other publications include Post-Revolutionary Politics in Iran: Religion, Society and Power, Iran after Khomeini: Revolutionary Ideology versus National Interest, and lots of others. Walter Posch Walter Posch is a Senior Fellow specializing in the Middle East and African affairs at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He acquired his first diploma at Vienna University in Turkish and Islamic Studies, and subsequently a PhD from Bamberg University. In 2001, he gained a Cultural Research Award of the Islamic Republic of Iran for his PhD thesis. From 1999 till 2004, he served as a Middle East Expert at the Austrian National Defense Academy with the field of expertise in Iran, Iraq and political Islam, after which he followed his career at the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris, with the main focus pertaining to domestic and foreign policies of Iran. Dr. Posch is the author of several papers and articles on political processes in Iran, Iraq and Turkey. Irena Kalhousová Irena Kalhousová works as a Chief Analyst at the Prague Security Studies Institute. She focuses on the contemporary Middle East, the Arab-Israeli conflict and transatlantic relations. She also lecturers at the Anglo-American University, where she is teaching courses on the Middle East and the European Union. She regularly contributes to Czech newspapers and journals and makes live commentaries for Czech TV and radio regarding contemporary Middle-Eastern issues. Ms. Kalhousová holds an M.Phil. degree in Contemporary European Studies from University of Cambridge and a Bachelor s degree in Political Science from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Conference Team Irena Kalhousová Head of the Conference Team Prague Security Studies Institute Martin Dunaj Chief Organizer of the Conference Prague Security Studies Institute Eva van de Rakt Director Heinrich Böll Foundation Erik Siegl Program Coordinator Heinrich Böll Foundation Conference Staff Kristýna Divišová, Jan Lalić, Tomáš Kulda, Jana Novotná, Martina Macáková, Petr Pöschl, Filip Tuček, Ivana Smoleňová

Prague Security Studies Institute THE PRAGUE SECURITY STUDIES INSTITUTE (PSSI) is a non-profit, non-governmental organization established in early 2002 to advance the building of a just, secure, democratic, free-market society in the Czech Republic and other post-communist states. PSSI s mission is to help build an ever-growing group of informed and security-minded policy-makers dedicated to the development of democratic institutions and values in the Czech Republic and its regional neighbors. PSSI offers programs that meet the critical requirement to equip new generations of young leaders to manage the complex, security-related challenges of the 21st century. To fulfill its mission, PSSI undertakes to organize a variety of activities under its Security Scholars Program; Program of Atlantic Security Studies; Corporate Council Program; and other outreach projects and training courses. Please visit the Public Communications Section to download further information about PSSI. PSSI also aims to identify and analyze foreign policy and security-related issues in the area of transatlantic relations, and to propose practical and prudent policies to address these and other security challenges. Heinrich Böll Foundation The Heinrich Böll Foundation is part of the Green political movement that has developed worldwide as a response to the traditional politics of socialism, liberalism, and conservatism. Our main tenets are ecology and sustainability, democracy and human rights, self-determination and justice. We place particular emphasis on gender democracy, meaning social emancipation and equal rights for women and men. We are also committed to equal rights for cultural and ethnic minorities and to the societal and political participation of immigrants. Finally, we promote non-violence and proactive peace policies. Our namesake, the writer and Nobel Prize laureate Heinrich Böll, personifies the values we stand for: defense of freedom, civic courage, tolerance, open debate, and the valuation of art and culture as independent spheres of thought and action. To achieve our goals, we seek strategic partnerships with others who share our values. We are an independent organization that is headquartered in the Federal Republic of Germany. The Prague Office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation was established on August 21, 1990 and was the foundation s first-ever office abroad. The office is responsible for the foundation s programs in Central and Eastern Europe focusing on the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.

International Conference Gulf Region: Changing the Status Quo? 22 May 2012 Edited by: Stephen Christensen Co-authors: Irena Kalhousová, Martin Dunaj, Erik Siegl, Eva van de Rakt PSSI 2012