THE ROAD TO SUSTAINABILITY FOR MEGACITIES Angelo Facchini International Conference of Synthetic Population Lucca, 22/02/2017
Outline Ø The urban century and the rise of megacities Ø Challenges and opportunities Ø A road for sustainable megacities Ø Cities and complex systems and urban metabolism Ø KPI for sustainable megacities Ø Work in progress
The Rise of the urban century 2030 Source: UN world Urbanization prospects, 2014
Urbanization: challenges and opportunities Our Challenge Ø Urban population is expected to be over 60% by 2050. Ø 2.5 billion people in developing countries will be urban by 2050 (Angel, 2012) Ø Reduce the impact on the environment (70% of GHG emissions are from cities). Our Opportunity Source: Courtesy of C. Kennedy, University of Victoria. Ø 2,5 bi. People will need basic services, especially in Latin America and Africa Ø Access to electricity and clean water means: ü Rely on cleaner energy sources ü Economic development of low-income areas ü Reduce emissions (Lighting, cooking, mobility) Ø Paradigm shift: sustainable development
The rise of megacities
The rise of megacities Ø Metropolitan regions with more than 10M inhabitants Ø Considered engines of global growth Ø Pararadigm of fast urban evolution Ø Accumulation points for population, especially in dev. countries Ø Significant global impact for resource consumption and source of economic power. Ø huge concentration of skills, knowledge and technical resources Ø Hub for the global network of cities Source: UN world Urbanization prospects, the 2014 revision Ø Study megacities means understanding: ü how cities grow and consume energy and materials ü mechanism of efficient use of resources ü the transformative role of utilities, governments and policy makers in driving a sustainability transition. Ø Megacities amplify negative aspects of urbanization: ü Inequalities and slums ü Pollution ü inadequate infrastructures (water, energy, mobility) ü Land degradation and consumption
The global network of cities Megacities as hubs Source: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/visual/globalcities2010.pdf
The global impact of megacities 16 14 14.6 % Percentage of world values (%) 12 10 8 6 4 6.7 % 11.7 % 9.3 % 9.1 % 6.0 % 2 3.0 % 0 Megacity population GDP Waste disposal Electricity use Gasoline use Energy use Water use Source: C. Kennedy, I. Stewart, A. Facchini, R. Mele et Al. Energy and material flows of megacities, PNAS, April 2015.
Infrastructural challenges in megacities Ø Infrastructures as enabling factors for sustainability and efficient provision of services Ø Especially in fast growing megacities, the infrastructures need a deep rethinking and adaptation in order to cope with the fast growth, climate change, and to ensure the quality of services for all the citizens. ü Transportation ü Electricity ü Water ü Waste ü Sanitation ü Security A strategy is required for financing, managing and maintaining environmentally sustainable infrastructures
Water ü Quantity and quality ü Urbanization in semi-arid regions ü Inadequate infrastructures ü Competition with energy and urban population Percentage of people with access to improved sources of water(2012) Source: World Bank Percentage of people living in water-risk areas (2009) Position of MC in red Source: World Bank Other aspects: ü Floods: An estimated two billion people live in areas at risk ü Climate change and sea level rise ü Pollution of rivers
Water risk and megacities Source: http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/aqueduct
Pressure on environment ü traffic congestion ü Pollution of water and soil ü Degradation of green areas ü Air quality and GHG emissions ü Waste Every year thousands of people die from lung diseases linked to pollution Source: qz.com. Data from WHO
Inequality and slums ü Most obvious expression of urban poverty ü People in the lower income bracket are the most exposed to climate change issues. They are characterized by the lack of: ü access to basic services (energy, water, improved sanitation, waste, etc.) ü Sufficient living space ü Durability security of dwellings Ø Ø Ø Over 830 million of people live in slums. Every year about 1.3 million people (mostly women and children) die prematurely because of domestic air pollution by biomass More than 1.3 billion people will need access to electricity in the next 20 years. Source: UN-Habitat Percentage of people living in slums (2010) Source: Wikipedia
A road to sustainability for megacities We expect in the next future an increase of megacities Impact on the environment. A road to sustainability is needed to cope with the challenges of the next future Ø Identify structural changes and pressure factors (e.g. climate change, migrations, etc.) Ø Cities as complex multi-layered systems Ø Understand energy and material flows Ø Low Carbon electric city Ø Provide policy makers with decision supporting tools
Cities as Complex Systems ü Systems composed by many interconnected parts ü The whole is more than the sum of the parts ü Analogy with living organisms ü Role of cultural and technical evolution ü Multiscale Flows of energy, matter, and information; ü Emergence and formation of organized structures ü Growth Vs development Energy flows in an industrial and post-industrial urban system Source: Angelo Facchini et al. Composing Indicators in a multilayered perspective: towards a hermeneutics of sustainbility. The sustainable city, Segovia 2002.
ü Urban infrastructures: Hard, soft, intangible. ü Multilevel network Ø Integration of the layers of the city connecting physical and social layers. Ø Understand this ML network means: Cities as complex systems ü ü ü ü ü Accurate measures and monitoring for risks management Improved resilience measures and adaptation to climate change Social connection and inclusion of the citizens Improving efficiency by means of awareness: new services and new business models for citizens Enabling social innovation
Urban Metabolism: energy and material flows Ø The aggregate of the technical and socio-economic process that occur in cities Ø Analysed through the energy and material flows crossing the boundaries Why Urban Metabolism? Ø Gives measures of urban resource efficiency Ø Connections to quality of life in cities Ø Required input for city GHG inventories Ø Framework for sustainable urban planning/design
Duvigneaud & Denayeyer-De Smet (1977)
Tailored low carbon infrastructure strategies BIPV = building integrated photovoltaics, DE= district energy, EV = electric vehicles, GSHP= ground source heat pumps, HRT=heavy rapid transit, IRE=import renewable electricity Source: C. Kennedy, key tresholds for electricity emissions, Nature Cli. Change, 5(3), 2015 19
Shares of metabolic flows in megacities 20% 18% 16% Share of consumption (%) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Population GDP Water Waste Energy 0% Ø Rank according to descending GDP Ø Equal share of GDP (e.g. New York and Los Angeles - Mexico city, Moscow and Seoul Paris and London) do not always lead to similar share of resource consumption Ø Energy and water in Guangzhou and Shanghai suggest further investigation Ø Jakarta, Mumbai, Istanbul, and Cairo, that show a significant difference between the GDP and waste collection share
Low carbon electric cities Source: C. Kennedy, I. Stewart, A. Facchini, R. Mele. The role of Utilities in developing low Carbon, electric megacities, Energy policy 2017
Key Performance Indicators for sustainable megacities Key Performance Indicator (KPI) 1. Electricity use per capita 2. Percentage of households with direct access to drinkable water 3. Solid waste production per capita Units Time period Urban dimension Sub-Dimensions MWh Annum Energy Air pollution, global warming, service delivery, physical infrastructure, innovation, urban form, economic development, social equity % --- Water Sanitation, service delivery, physical infrastructure, social equity, economic development Tonnes Annum Waste Subsurface pollution, global warming, material recycling, consumption, urban form, economic development Other supporting indicators in the megacities dataset CO 2 intensity of electricity; percentage of total energy use from lowcarbon electricity Water line losses as a percentage of total water consumption Wastewater volume per capita 4. Percentage of population with access to internet % --- Information & communications technology Connectivity, information access, innovation, service delivery, digital infrastructure, economic development, social equity Percentage of population using mobile phones
Population, GDP, and electricity consumption Ø Electricity consumption is an important driver for economic development, especially in fast developing countries Ø In Rio de Janeiro both electricity consumption and GDP grew 10 times faster than population Ø London managed to reduce its per capita electricity use for 2001-2011, while growing its GDP, but it is an exception. Ø Superlinear scaling is always observed Ø Correlation between per capita electricity consumption and GDP Important insights for infrastructure resilience and climate change.
P.C. Electricity consumption PM 2.5 Concentration (ug/m3) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Lagos Dhaka Delhi Karachi Mumbai Kolkata Cairo Beijing Rio Shanghai Tehran Istanbul Guangzhou Mexico City Manila Sao Paulo Jakarta Seoul B. Aires MoscowLondon Paris Shenzhen Los Angeles New York Tokyo Osaka 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p.c electricity consumption (MWh) Electricity Vs PM2.5 b= 0.6 R2=0.77 Ø Low consumption: people rely on less efficent (and more polluting) fuels in the energy ladder. Ø Especially in Asia and Africa large share of people lives in slums Ø Carbon intensity does not appear related with PM2.5 pollution Ø Access to infrastructure is a crucial topic Per capita electricity use (MWh) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Osaka Tokyo New York Shenzhen Los Paris Shanghai Guangzho London Moscow Seoul Percentage of households without access to electricity Manila Beijing Jakarta Rio de Istanbul Sao Paulo Buenos Tehran Mexico Karachi Delhi Mumbai Cairo Kolkata Dhaka Lagos 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percentage of households without access to electricity
Access to drinkable water Ø Hard infrastructures (e.g. water, gas, electricity) are directly related to GDP. Ø Logistic model!! = 100 1 +!!!" 100 90 80 Istanbul Cairo Tehran Rio B. Aires Mumbai Delhi Kolkata Shanghai Osaka Seoul Beijing Shenzhen Tokyo Sao PauloGuangzhou London Moscow Paris New York GDP Vs Access to DW a= 3.13 b=0.3 R2=0.91 Los Angeles Access to drinkable water (%) 70 60 50 40 Karachi Dhaka Manila Mexico City 30 Jakarta 20 10 Lagos 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 GDP x1000 (PPP US$)
Waste collection Ø One of the most important environmental issues facing megacities today; Ø Critical function of the urban environment. Ø Indicator of a healthy and resource-efficient city. Ø Implicates urban form, wealth and poverty, over- and under-consumption, material recycling (both formal and informal), and subsurface pollution of water and soil.
Access to internet & Mobile phones Ø Digital information is an essential function of everyday life in megacities. Ø Access to digital infrastructure (e.g., internet) is improved thru access to grid electricity Ø This implies economic development and existing infrastructure for basic services such as sewerage, drinkable water, and solid waste removal. Ø Enabling factor for digital infrastructures integration. Ø Difference between hard and soft infrastructures
Analysis of KPI: communities in megacities Ø Provide policy/decision makers with tools to: ü Understand the actual situation. ü Suggest action to move among communities Jakarta New York Mexico City Instanbul Sao Paulo Buenos Aires Seoul Rio de Janeiro Beijing Paris London Mumbai Cairo Moscow Guangzhou Karachi Delhi Shanghai Tokyo Shenzhen Dhaka Kolkata Tehran Osaka Los Angeles Manila Source: C. Kennedy, I. Stewart, A. Facchini, G. Caldarelli, F. Saracco, R. Mele. Key performance indicators for megacity sustainability, in preparation.
Develop supporting tools for policy makers Ø Actual tools are not capturing the complex nature of megacities Ø Need methods for modelling: ü Hard infrastructures ü Soft infrastructures ü Intangible factors Ø Models based on synthetic interacting populations may be exploited to: ü Simulate the behavior of people reacting to different policies (intangible factors) ü Analyze infrastructural changes (e.g. position of new power plants, electric mobility, TLC networks, etc.) ü Simulate new policies and analyze their strengths and weaknesses (soft infrastructures) Ø Some examples regarding water and CO2 Emissions
5 Policies influence water flows Growth ratios for water use to population, 2001 11 Growth ratio 4 3 2 1 0-1 water conservation policies (post-2001) -2-3 -4-5
Case study: CO2 Emissions in Lima Electricity generation mix (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 CO2 emissions (t) 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hydropower (%) Natural gas (%) Oil (%) Coal (%) Hydropower Natural gas Oil Coal CO2 emissions (t) 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 Actual Evolution 2001 Mix Scenario 2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ø Change in the electricity mix of Lima Ø Increasing use of natural gas Ø BAU scenario results in a relevant increase of CO2 emissions Ø Which is the optimal policy. Source: R. Kahat, I. Vasquez, A. Facchini, G. Caldarelli, C. Kennedy, R. Mele. Urban metabolism of Lima and its implications for low carbon policy development, in preparation.
Research network Of course I m not alone Ø Program started in 2013 by Enel Foundation Ø Data Collected by a network of 28 researchers based in the megacities The research network is now composed by: Ø Chris Kennedy, Uni. of Victoria, Canada Ø Iain Stewart, World Resources Institute, USA Ø Guido Caldarelli & Fabio Saracco, IMT Lucca Ø Renata Mele, Enel Foundation Ø Antonio Scala, CNR-ISC Ø Ramzy Kahat, Cath. University of Lima, Peru Ø Jonathan Barton, Cath. Univ. Of Santiago, Santiago de Chile Ø Isaac Dyner, University JT Lozano, Bogota Ø Clara Pardo, Univ. Del Rosario, Bogota Ø Ted Endreny, Syracuse Uni. NY, USA