Crosstabulations Field Dates: September 14-18, 2012 Methodology The survey was conducted online with 1,208 respondents in English and French using an internet survey programmed and collected by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists from the Angus Reid Forum was invited to participate in the survey, a representative panel of over 150,000 Canadians. The survey was completed from September 14-18, 2012. Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels. The margin of error for a survey of 1,208 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20. The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada s population according to age, gender, education level, and region. These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly Omnibus survey. The earlier survey (n=2,099) referenced in this report was conducted from August 10-12, 2012 using a similar methodology. Details can be found on the Abacus Data website. For more information about the poll s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.
Canadians Continue to Oppose Nexen Takeover; Opposition Driven by Strategic Considerations Please refer to the survey as: Abacus Data Poll 1,208 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, September 14-18, 2012. Ottawa, ON A new survey conducted by Abacus Data finds that opposition to the takeover of Canadian energy company Nexen by Chinese energy company CNOOC Ltd has increased by 12 percentage points since August. Overall, two in three Canadians surveyed (69%) said that the federal government should reject the deal while 8% said the government should approve the deal. Twenty-three percent were unsure of what the government should do. Last month, Abacus Data found that 57% of Canadians believed the federal government should reject the deal, a 12 point increase. Nexen Takeover The survey found that awareness of the deal increased only marginally from 43% in August to 47% this month. Awareness was highest in Alberta (63%), among Canadians aged 60 and over (59%), and among market watchers or those who said they market very or somewhat closely (71% and 72% aware). When asked whether the federal government should approve the deal, 69% said the deal should be rejected while 8% believed it should be approved. Opposition to the deal was uniform across most subgroups. There were few regional or partisan differences. In fact, respondents who said they voted Conservative in 2011 were almost as likely to say the deal should be rejected as those who voted Liberal or NDP (Conservative 68%, NDP 72%, Liberal 73%). Of note, those respondents who market very closely were the most likely to believe the deal should be approved (26% approve, 58% reject). Explaining Opposition to the Deal Those who believed the deal should be rejected by the federal government where shown a list of four reasons why they may be opposed and were asked which reason, if any, came closest to their view. Results indicate that opposition is driven more by concern about a foreign company controlling a strategic asset than by that foreign company being Chinese controlled. A majority of those opposed to the deal (58%) cited the fact that Nexen operates in one of Canada s core strategic industries, and a foreign company should not have control of such an important resource. Another 15% of those who believed the deal should be rejected did so because CNOOC is owned by the Chinese government and the resource will be used as an instrument of Chinese policy. Fifteen percent were opposed due to China s poor human rights record while 9% cited the lack of Canadian- Chinese reciprocity when it comes to controlling Chinese companies. 2
Views on China Overall, few Canadians view China negatively however few view it positively. When asked to rate their impression of China on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 meant very negative and 100 mean very positive, 34% gave a rating of 0 to 33 (considered negative), 47% rated their impression between 34 and 66 (considered neutral), and 18% rated their impression between 67 and 100 (considered positive). There was only a weak correlation between a respondent s view about China and their position on the Nexen/CNOOC deal. Those who held more positive impressions were somewhat more likely to believe the government should be approve the deal but the relationship was not perfect. Among those with positive impressions of China, 48% still believed the deal should be rejected by the federal government. Respondents were also asked to rate their comfort with Chinese state-controlled companies investing in and purchasing Canadian natural resource companies. Overall, a majority of Canadians said they were either very or somewhat uncomfortable with either idea. Sixty-five percent said they were uncomfortable with Chinese investment in Canadian natural resource companies while 73% were uncomfortable with Chinese companies buying Canadian natural resource companies. Bottom Line As the federal government decides whether to approve or reject CNOOC s offer to purchase Nexen, Canadian public opinion is a hurdle for the government. Not only do opposition party supporters want the government to reject the deal but a majority of Conservative Party supporters want the deal to be rejected as well. Although the issue has not reached a level of awareness that should be considered worrying for the government, there is potential for the issue to become political charged, especially if the opposition parties take advantage of the public s initial negative reaction to the deal. Most Canadians are not deeply aware of the issue but our research suggests that when Canadians are given some information, most respond negatively. Even among those who are likely to be most informed about business issues, like those who say they follow the market closely, a majority believe the Nexen deal should be rejected. This means that even if the government is successful at communicating of the benefits of the deal, Canadians may agree. This presents a major communications challenge. Our research also indicates that opposition to the deal is not being driven by negative attitudes towards China. Canadians are not necessarily uncomfortable with Chinese investment in Canadian industries in general. They are however uncomfortable with the idea of state-controlled companies controlling a major player in one of Canada s core strategic industries. If the federal government does approve the deal, they will have a lot of work to do in convincing Canadians in all regions and of all political stripes of the merit of their decision. 3
bonds, or mutual funds? follow the stock On a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 means very negative and 100 means very positive, what is your impression of China overall? Negative Neutral Positive Percentage Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 34 47 18 1217 1208 Alberta 32 46 22 132 135 British Columbia 40 46 14 163 155 Central 34 50 16 83 106 Ontario 38 43 19 469 397 Quebec 28 55 17 283 295 Atlantic 28 46 26 87 120 Male 35 44 21 607 627 Female 34 51 16 609 581 18 to 29 25 50 25 232 449 30 to 44 33 48 19 315 254 45 to 59 40 44 16 351 254 60 and over 36 48 16 319 251 Urban 32 47 21 565 577 Suburban 34 48 18 420 405 Rural 41 47 12 232 226 Yes 35 45 20 656 580 No 33 50 17 561 628 Very closely 27 48 25 90 82 Somewhat closely 35 44 22 280 267 Not that closely 34 50 16 409 390 Not at all closely 36 47 17 437 469 Conservative Party 35 46 18 411 368 Liberal Party 33 48 19 197 199 New Democratic Party 32 49 19 318 296 Green Party 48 37 15 40 44 Bloc Quebecois 35 49 16 62 77 Another Party 21 53 26 5 7 Can't Remember or did not vote 35 48 17 184 217 4
Chinese companies controlled by the Chinese government investing in Canadian-controlled natural resource companies. (Overall, how comfortable or uncomfortable are you with the following?) Very comfortable Somewhat comfortable Neither Somewhat uncomfortable Very uncomfortable bonds, or mutual funds? Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 4 15 17 31 34 1217 1208 Alberta 4 16 15 33 33 132 135 British Columbia 4 17 13 28 38 163 155 Central 2 12 19 37 30 83 106 Ontario 4 13 14 31 38 469 397 Quebec 3 18 22 29 28 283 295 Atlantic 4 13 21 33 30 87 120 Male 6 17 14 31 33 607 627 Female 2 12 20 31 35 609 581 18 to 29 5 19 24 28 23 232 449 30 to 44 3 16 21 27 33 315 254 45 to 59 3 11 15 33 38 351 254 60 and over 4 15 9 34 39 319 251 Urban 4 16 16 33 31 565 577 Suburban 4 14 19 27 36 420 405 Rural 3 11 16 31 39 232 226 Yes 4 17 12 32 35 656 580 No 3 12 23 30 33 561 628 Very closely 7 24 9 30 30 90 82 Somewhat closely 5 20 13 27 34 280 267 Not that closely 3 13 16 34 34 409 390 Not at all closely 3 11 22 30 35 437 469 Conservative Party 5 15 11 35 34 411 368 Liberal Party 4 17 11 36 32 197 199 New Democratic Party 2 15 18 28 37 318 296 Green Party 6 8 10 26 50 40 44 Bloc Quebecois 2 21 20 24 33 62 77 Another Party 0 0 44 56 0 5 7 Can't Remember or did not vote 3 11 35 23 28 184 217 5
Chinese companies controlled by the Chinese government buying Canadian natural resource companies in the mining, energy, and forestry sectors. (Overall, how comfortable or uncomfortable are you with the following?) Very comfortable Somewhat comfortable Neither Somewhat uncomfortable Very uncomfortable bonds, or mutual funds? Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 3 9 15 27 46 1217 1208 Alberta 4 9 12 28 47 132 135 British Columbia 3 10 12 27 48 163 155 Central 0 10 21 28 42 83 106 Ontario 3 9 14 25 49 469 397 Quebec 2 10 17 26 44 283 295 Atlantic 4 5 20 32 39 87 120 Male 4 11 12 28 45 607 627 Female 1 7 18 25 48 609 581 18 to 29 3 14 22 25 36 232 449 30 to 44 3 9 19 24 46 315 254 45 to 59 3 7 13 28 49 351 254 60 and over 3 8 8 28 53 319 251 Urban 3 10 14 29 43 565 577 Suburban 2 10 17 24 48 420 405 Rural 4 5 13 25 52 232 226 Yes 3 10 11 28 48 656 580 No 3 9 20 24 45 561 628 Very closely 3 20 8 25 44 90 82 Somewhat closely 5 13 13 22 48 280 267 Not that closely 3 6 12 33 46 409 390 Not at all closely 2 7 21 24 46 437 469 Conservative Party 3 10 11 30 46 411 368 Liberal Party 4 10 9 29 48 197 199 New Democratic Party 2 8 16 23 52 318 296 Green Party 3 8 7 21 60 40 44 Bloc Quebecois 1 11 14 23 51 62 77 Another Party 0 0 44 56 0 5 7 Can't Remember or did not vote 3 9 30 24 33 184 217 6
Before today, were you aware or unaware that a governmentcontrolled Chinese oil company, CNOOC Ltd., has made an offer to buy Calgary-based Nexen Inc. a major Canadian oil and gas company, which has operations in the oil sands as well as overseas. bonds, or mutual funds? Aware Unaware Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 47 53 1217 1208 Canada Aug 2012 43 57 2,095 2,099 Alberta 63 37 132 135 British Columbia 53 47 163 155 Central 46 54 83 106 Ontario 50 50 469 397 Quebec 31 69 283 295 Atlantic 48 52 87 120 Male 61 39 607 627 Female 33 67 609 581 18 to 29 39 61 232 449 30 to 44 38 62 315 254 45 to 59 50 50 351 254 60 and over 59 41 319 251 Urban 49 51 565 577 Suburban 46 54 420 405 Rural 44 56 232 226 Yes 55 45 656 580 No 38 62 561 628 Very closely 71 29 90 82 Somewhat closely 72 28 280 267 Not that closely 45 55 409 390 Not at all closely 28 72 437 469 Conservative Party 56 44 411 368 Liberal Party 61 39 197 199 New Democratic Party 42 58 318 296 Green Party 56 44 40 44 Bloc Quebecois 26 74 62 77 Another Party 37 63 5 7 Can't Remember or did not vote 26 74 184 217 7
Before the purchase is finalized, the federal government must approve the deal. Do you think the federal government should approve the deal or should it reject the deal? bonds, or mutual funds? Awareness of Deal Approve the deal Reject the deal Don't know Percentage Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 8 69 23 1217 1208 Canada Aug 2012 9 57 34 2,095 2,099 Alberta 11 69 20 132 135 British Columbia 7 71 22 163 155 Central 4 69 27 83 106 Ontario 8 69 23 469 397 Quebec 8 71 21 283 295 Atlantic 8 61 31 87 120 Male 13 68 19 607 627 Female 3 70 27 609 581 18 to 29 11 60 30 232 449 30 to 44 8 68 24 315 254 45 to 59 7 70 23 351 254 60 and over 7 75 18 319 251 Urban 8 66 25 565 577 Suburban 9 68 23 420 405 Rural 4 78 19 232 226 Yes 10 68 22 656 580 No 5 71 24 561 628 Very closely 26 58 17 90 82 Somewhat closely 12 70 18 280 267 Not that closely 6 72 22 409 390 Not at all closely 4 68 29 437 469 Conservative Party 11 68 21 411 368 Liberal Party 9 73 18 197 199 New Democratic Party 3 72 24 318 296 Green Party 6 84 10 40 44 Bloc Quebecois 5 80 14 62 77 Another Party 0 56 44 5 7 Can't Remember or did not vote 8 54 38 184 217 Aware 13 74 13 571 549 Unaware 3 65 32 645 659 8
bonds, or mutual funds? (Only if answered Reject ) - There are a number of reasons why someone may be opposed to the deal. Which of the following comes closest to your view? [rotate] Nexen operates in one of Canada s core strategic industries, the oil and gas sector, and a foreign company should not have control of such an important sector. CNOOC is owned by the Chinese government and therefore will be an instrument of the Chinese government s political, economic, and foreign policy. There is no Canadian- Chinese reciprocity. If a Canadian oil company wanted to buy a Chineseowned one it could not. China s poor human rights record is reason enough to block the sale. None of these Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Canada - Sept 2012 58 15 9 15 3 840 810 Alberta 67 9 9 14 1 91 86 British Columbia 59 15 5 17 5 115 107 Central 64 17 6 8 5 57 73 Ontario 55 19 13 11 3 324 268 Quebec 54 12 8 23 2 200 207 Atlantic 67 6 4 16 7 53 69 Male 58 16 11 13 2 414 415 Female 57 14 8 16 4 427 395 18 to 29 49 19 13 12 7 139 268 30 to 44 58 11 10 16 5 214 174 45 to 59 60 13 8 17 3 247 178 60 and over 61 18 8 13 0 241 190 Urban 55 16 8 16 5 375 378 Suburban 59 14 10 14 3 285 265 Rural 60 13 10 15 1 181 167 Yes 59 16 8 16 2 443 386 No 57 13 11 14 5 397 424 Very closely 55 20 16 8 1 52 47 Somewhat closely 56 22 8 11 3 196 184 Not that closely 60 11 9 18 2 296 272 Not at all closely 57 12 9 16 5 297 307 Conservative Party 65 13 11 9 2 280 243 Liberal Party 48 20 12 16 4 144 140 New Democratic Party 61 15 5 16 3 230 214 Green Party 51 14 13 18 3 34 36 Bloc Quebecois 53 4 6 35 3 50 60 Another Party 47 34 0 19 0 3 4 Can't Remember or did not vote 49 16 10 16 9 99 113 9