CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (C.A.R.) Humanitarian Crisis Analysis 2015 January 2015 Each year, Sida conducts a humanitarian allocation exercise in which a large part of its humanitarian budget is allocated to emergencies worldwide. This allocation takes place in the beginning of the year as to ensure predictability for humanitarian organisations and to allow for best possible operational planning. In an effort to truly adhere to the humanitarian principles Sida bases its allocation decisions on a number of objective indicators of which the most important are related to the number of affected people, vulnerability of affected people and level of funding in previous years. One of the indicators is also related to forgotten crises in order to ensure sufficient funding also to low profile crises. Besides this initial allocation, another part of the humanitarian budget is set aside as an emergency reserve for sudden onset emergencies and deteriorating humanitarian situations. This reserve allows Sida to quickly allocate funding to any humanitarian situation throughout the year, including additional funding to CAR. 1. CRISIS OVERVIEW Central African Republic (CAR) was for years a forgotten and protracted humanitarian crisis characterized by chronic underdevelopment and localised emergency situations. In 2013 the situation worsened and it is now considered to be a complex emergency with great humanitarian needs; in December 2013 CAR was declared a level 3 crisis (UN classification for the most severe and large-scale humanitarian crisis), which it will remain until June 2015. The security situation deteriorated quickly in 2014; many atrocities and violations of human rights were committed resulting in massive movements of population including exodus towards Chad and Cameroon. At the peak of the crisis one million out of CAR s population of 4.8 million were considered to be internally displaced persons (IDPs). Half of these later fled the country and are now classified as refugees or returnees in neighbouring countries. Thus, CAR is primarily a protection crisis. After two years of unrest, market disruptions and sharply diminished agricultural production the country willmost probably face a food crisis in 2015. The underlying causes of the conflict are mainly related to poverty, public frustration caused by a failed democratisation process, lack of development and economic opportunities for parts of the population, absence of a functioning state, and power struggles within the political elite. CAR is rich in natural resources (oil, gold, diamonds, timber, pasture) and the control over these resources is another source of conflict. A new transitional government was installed in 2014 with the support of regional powers, however State presence outside of Bangui remains extremely limited. Elections scheduled for February 2015 have now been postponed to July 2015. Regardless of their timing the elections are a potential source for increased levels of violence and consequently a rise in humanitarian needs. 1.1Geographical areas and affected population The disruptive events of 2014 took mainly place in Western parts of the country, however the crisis extends to include all parts of the country. The capital Bangui was also severely affected with 400 000, or around half of the population, taking shelter in IDP camps at the peak of the crisis. The Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) 2015 assesses that 2.7 million people (56% of the population) are in need of assistance and the Strategic Response Plan (SRP) targets 2 million beneficiaries in 2015, a slight increase from 2014. The geographical analysis in the SRP shows that the most urgent needs are in Ouham (North), Basse-Kotto, Ombella M Poko (South), Kémo, Ouaka (Centre), Nana-Mambéré, Ouham Péndé (West) and in the capital Bangui. There are also more chronic needs throughout the country and there is a potential risk for additional violence if the ongoing attempts to bring social cohesion are not successful. The IDPs are amongst the most vulnerable groups with very few cooping mechanisms left, however, the general lack of access to basic social services affects the entire population. There are currently 438 538 IDPs in CAR out of which 51 058 are in Bangui, 125 078 in the Bimbo area in the South and 177 528 in other areas. There are also 225 359 IDPs staying with host families and 35 650 have fled out in the bush where they cannot access humanitarian assistance. Compared to 2012, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in CAR is estimated to have dropped by 37% due to poor performance by the agricultural sector and a decrease in food production by 58%. According to the recent integrated food security phase classification (IPC), an estimated 1.5 million people require food assistance out of whic 1.3 million in the rural areas and 209 978 in Bangui. The economic life in CAR has seriously deteriorated following the last two years events. In 2014, most of the Muslim traders in CAR fled to Chad and have not been replaced by new economic actors. There are altogether 421 200 CAR refugees in the neighbouring countries Chad, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo. 1.2 Risks and threats The situation in CAR remains very volatile and it is difficult to predict how it will evolve in 2015. The major threats are related to the unresolved political situation which may erupt into another wave of violence, for example in connection 1
with the planned elections. The SRP also highlights risks associated with returning refugee population, in particular nomadic Fulanis with their cattle, as well as localised eruption of conflict among rival factions. The main risks and threats to the population, as well as to humanitarian actors, are related to the continued lawlessness and impunity in the country. There are at present three security operations in CAR; a United Nations Peace Keeping Operation called MINUSCA (Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central Africa Republic), the French Sangari s operation, and the European Union with EUFOR (European External Action Service). Although the security situation in Bangui and in a few other major towns have improved following the deployment of these security operations the security still cannot be guaranteed in the countryside, along the major transport roads and for humanitarian operations. There have been a number of incidents involving humanitarian actors in 2014 and operations in certain areas which have led to the temporarily interruption of humanitarian assistance which overall continues to be delivered, despite difficulties. The Health system has been seriously affected by the events of 2013-14 and has basically collapsed. It is mostly Nongovernmental Organisations (NGOs) that provide health services outside of the capital Bangui. There is a real possibility that CAR will experience the outbreak of epidemics in 2015; cholera and measle cases were reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) in November 2014. Following the disruption of agricultural activities in 2013 and 2014, in combination with a large number of IDPs with little access to livelihood, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) now expects that 32% of the population will face food insecurity during 2015 (IPC level 3-4). Political instability and war have made this country one of the poorest in the world. CAR ranks 180 out of 187 countries according to Human Development Index (HDI). There is a risk that the urgent need for national reconciliation in CAR will overshadow the need to improve governance which is one key driver of the conflict in the country. A generic risk in all countries with humanitarian needs is the risk of corruption. With general challenges in all societal pillars including law, order, stability and justice - the area of checks and balances also becomes fragile. CAR ranks on number 150 on Transparency Internationals Index for 2014. 1.3 Strategic objectives identified in the Strategic Response Plan According to the SRP the strategic objectives will be: Improve living conditions for newly displaced persons and local populations, in particular women and children. This by addressing their immediate protection needs as well as other emergency related needs, and by improving access to basic social services; Improve access to basic social services for vulnerable people and provide livelihood support which to strengthen early recovery and resilience; and Facilitate durable solutions for displaced populations and returnees with emphasis on the geographical areas with expected return and re-integration needs. The preservation of humanitarian space and access by promoting respect for the humanitarian principles of humanity, impartiality, neutrality and independence will be a major task during 2015. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humaniatarian Affairs (UNOCHA) will continue to host a Civil-Military Coordinator. A gender advisor from GenCap was deployed to CAR in January 2014 and has among other things supported OCHA in the development of the Strategic Response Plan. The mission of the gender advisor ended in January 2015. 2. IN COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CAPACITIES 2.1 National and local capacities and constraints The government s capacity in CAR has always been very weak and is mostly concentrated in the capital. The disruptions during 2013/14 which deliberately targeted Government institutions such as schools, health posts, police offices, tribunals and other administrative buildings has left the Government even weaker. Payment of Civil Servants salaries has been irregular since 2013.The new transitional government has established a Ministry for Humanitarian Affairs and developed an Emergency Programme for Sustainable Recovery. Civil society in CAR has been very fragmented and most Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) are political in nature with limited capacity to assist in any humanitarian response. The number of national NGOs doubled during 2014 yet few have the capacity, training or funding to deliver humanitarian assistance at a larger scale. 2
The Strategic Response Plan (SRP) presents a good analysis of cross-cutting issues. Capacity development of partners is planned for questions related to Protection, Gender, and to Accountability to Affected Populations. All partners are encouraged to engage in improving social cohesion and reconciliation through their regular activities. 2.2 International operational capacities and constraints As reflected in the SRP, insecurity and limited access will be major constraints for humanitarian assistance in 2015. The air services provided by the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) will be crucial as well as the prepositioning of food and non-food items (NFIs) as envisaged in the SRP. The Humanitarian Coordinator (HC) leads the humanitarian work in CAR with the support from OCHA and eleven clusters headed by United Nation (UN) agencies. Overall cluster coordination has improved during 2014 as a consequence of the increased number of partners, the acuteness of the displacement situation in early 2014, and the influx of qualified emergency staff during the early phases of the L3 response. OCHA opened 6 sub-offices in various towns and plans to open two more in 2015 to facilitate field level coordination. The Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Directorate General of the European Commission (ECHO) and the USAID/OFDA have field offices in Bangui whilst other donors rely on field visits from their headquarters (HQs) or regional hubs to get information on the situation on the ground, making donor coordination difficult. OCHA is planning for an even stronger role in the area of donor coordination in 2015. All the major UN humanitarian agencies and international humanitarian NGOs are present in CAR. Some had previously left the country and returned in 2014; in total the number of organisations involved in the international response increased from 47 to 105. One major constraint is the difficulty to recruit sufficient French-speaking staff to this non-family station. The United Nations Children s Fund (Unicef) has a special role as it manages the in-country Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) responsible for rapid needs assessments in sudden onset crisis in areas where NGO presence is weak. 2.3 International and regional assistance The major humanitarian donors to CAR in 2014 were; USA (145 million USD, MUSD), ECHO (65 MUSD), United Kingdom, UK, (29 MUSD) and Sweden (22 MUSD). There is a Common Humanitarian Fund (CHF) in CAR to which Sweden, Ireland, Netherlands, UK, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Luxembourg contributed in 2014. The funding level for the CHF was 38 MUSD in 2014, a substantial increase from the 9.5 MUSD in 2013. Total humanitarian funding was 523 MUSD of which 407 towards the SRP which meant a financing at 73%, a drastic improvement from 2013. CAR received also 34 MUSD from the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in 2014. The US has increased their support to the CAR crisis substantially amounting to 145 MUSD including interventions in neighbouring countries. The focus has been on food aid through the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) as well as protection. The USA re-opened the Embassy in Bangui in 2014 and is expected to play a more active role in 2015. ECHO plans to provide 52 MEURO in 2015. ECHO takes a regional approach to the CAR crisis and plans for assistance in three countries, CAR, Chad and Cameroon. ECHO s interventions will span over a wide range of sectors including; Protection, Health/Nutrition, Food Assistance/Food Security, Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH), Shelter/NFIs and Logistics. Sweden has also during 2014 reacted to the regional implications of the CAR crisis by providing support to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR s) regional Appeal and has provided funding to Strategic Partners through the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM). 3. SIDA's HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN 3.1. Sida s role Sida has increased its funding to CAR with 83% since last year bringing the total Sida contribution to CAR (including RRMs) to 146.4 Million Swedish kronor (80 MSEK in 2014). The support has been channelled through the Common Humanitarian Fund (20% of the total amount), protection through UNHCR (which also included support to refugees in neighbouring countries, 11%), and Health related activities through Médecins Sans Frontiéres (MSF), (with 18%) of the total funding. A large proportion of the funds (40 %) has been provided through Sidas Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM). The majority of the activities through the RRM have focused on secondments to the UN-system for urgent logistics and coordination needs. Here, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) has been able to provide highly qualified staff in an environment that has suffered from urgent staffing gaps during the L3 crisis. 3
The CHF in CAR was established in 2008 and remains a key financing mechanism to address critical needs in a country where needs change quickly and few donors have a permanent presence. In 2013 the CHF received 9.6 MUSD from three donors; in 2014 it increased to 37.9 MUSD from 8 countries. Out of 99 received proposals by the end of September 2014, 19 were approved for funding. Monitoring visits are being carried out and results are reported on a quarterly basis. However, in order to make this information more useful for donors, the results need to be summarised in a more result-oriented way. Regular video/phone conferences between the CHF managers and donors would facilitate the follow-up on performance. In view of the increased funding levels and number of actors applying for funding it is recommended to perform a review of the risk management of the CHF. Many projects are carried out in challenging environments and activities were paused for some time during the peak of the violence. The restrictions on movement due to insecurity make it important for humanitarian actors to operate close to the beneficiaries. In view of the recent trend of people starting to return to their homes it is becoming less important to continue supporting specific sectorial activities such as WASH inside the camps. 3.2. Response priorities 2015 Sidas will focus most on the areas outlined in the SRP and particularly the following: Protection, Health and Food security/livelihoods. It is Sida s assessment that the situation in CAR will remain fragile and insecure also during 2015 with frequent outbreaks of violence and continued displacement of the population. Particular needs are found in the front line zone and regions where inter-community tensions are potentially high, for example in Nana Mambere and Ouham Péndé (due to the return of the Fulanis from Cameroon or Chad) and the Eastern/South East regions (alliance of armed groups with minorities). There is a need for better field coverage/presence by humanitarian actors, improved early warning system, and population movement monitoring. With regard to Protection there is a particular need for protection of minorities at risk, children at risk and to address Sexual and Gender-based Violence (SGBV). With regard to Health and Livelihoods there is a need for vaccination, improved access to basic social services and livelihood assistance. There is also a need to support the return process with more durable solutions for IDPs and refugees with regard to food security. Sweden does not have a development programme in CAR. The World Bank (WB) and the European Union (EU) have been the main supporters of long term development but have had to discontinue the programmes due to the conflict situation. A lot of the achievements under those programmes have been lost and there is a need for a substantial effort to rebuild the health, education and governance system. EU indicated in September 2014 that a fund had been set up to support new development efforts in CAR. As violence has continued also after the peace keepers arrival, the fund has not yet made any significant investments but the possibility remains as soon as the conflict intensity is reduced. In the SRP it is indicated that there is a need to move from substitution style activities to support/restore national social services as well strengthening synergies between humanitarian and stabilization/transition/recovery activities, linking clusters with sectors. Sweden aim to strengthen these links by focusing on livelihoods and food security in 2015. Other links with development partners should also reviewed. Sweden has been a long standing member of the advisory board of the CHF and during 2013-2014 Sida intensified it s humanitarian follow-up in CAR by having a Programme Officer working part time out of CAR. The focus in 2015 will be on contributing to the strengthening of the functionality of the CHF together with partners and other donors as well as reviewing risk management in relation to the Fund. 3.3. Partners United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairns (UN/OCHA): Support to OCHA is still very important and the support will remain at the same level as in 2014. There is a need to coordinate and to continue the re-establishment of the field presence where possible. OCHA is also responsible for the administration of the CHF which has increased its volume substantially during 2014. It is important to supply donors, many without representation in CAR, with frequent communication and results reporting. 4 MSK. World Food Programme/UNHAS: There is still a serious lack of road access in CAR and in view of the frequent attacks and high level of violence it is important to continue funding to ensure access to rural areas. The UNHAS operations have been underfunded in 2014. 5 MSK, same level as in 2014. Common Humanitarian Fund (CHF): The projects supported are chosen amongst the more than 100 proposals submitted each year and only the ones covering the most urgent needs in areas and sectors identified in the SRP are funded. The management of the fund is improving with an improved monitoring and reporting system. It has also started with risk management and partners capacity assessments based on the Harmonized Approach to Cash Transfers (HACT) principles which need to be further upgraded. It is important for Sweden to continue being a key donor to the CHF to strengthen humanitarian leadership and to address the urgent needs in CAR. Sweden proposes 4
to introduce a system during 2015 whereby OCHA and the donors can discuss the progress of the projects through video/phone links as most of the donors are not present in the country but need updates and to be more involved. 20 MSK, same level as in 2014. Medecins Sans Frontiers (MSF): Same funding levels as for 2014. MSF runs most of the functioning hospitals and a number of rural health clinics. MSF has an important outreach in difficult rural circumstances and is an essential partner to other NGOs who are working in nutrition, treatment of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), and for the event of localised violent conflicts. MSF, as many other organisations, had to halt their activities temporarily in 2014 due to emerging conflicts in parts of the country. There is risk that this will also be the case for 2015 as well. 15 MSK. United Nations High Comission for Refugees (UNHCR): Although the crisis in CAR is a Protection crisis with a high number of IDPs there are also other donors supporting UNHCR and the need for Swedish funding is important but not crucial to uphold the operations. Also the CHF focuses highly on Protection and Swedish funds are contributing to UNHCR via the fund. UNHCR has a leading role in responding to the needs of the displaced population and will continue to be a major actor in 2015. It has a regional outreach to neighbouring countries affected by the CAR-crisis to which Sweden may consider contributing towards depending on the deveopments in 2015. 5 MSK. Swedish Save the Children (SRB): SRB initiated activities in 2013 partly with Swedish RRM financing. It has had an important role in the Child Protection working group and in mainstreaming gender issues in the Protection Cluster. SRB receives substantial funding from other donors. Sidas support is planned to 5 MSK. International Rescue Committee (IRC): IRC is working in the priority area Nana-Gabrizi but being affected by violence in the area and therefore halting activities during October 2014. Focus for 2014 has been on livelihood and protection, more information will be collected to identify the exact needs and most urgent activities in 2015. 6 MSK. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC): Same funding level as in 2014. Important partner in the area of Protection in CAR. ICRC has carried out very important work in CAR, it has the capacity and qualifications to work with the types of activities that are needed in order to have some impact in this conflict stricken country. 5 MSK. PLAN International: A new partner for Sweden in CAR and it is planned to allocate 5 MSEK to support their activities. Started its activities in CAR in 2014, partly with Swedish RRM-financing and w ill continue to focus on child protection and education in emergencies with a geographical focus on Mambere Kadei province in the South West of CAR, bordering Cameroon. The province is expected to host an intense return of refugees displaced in Cameroon in 2015. 5 MSK. All the partner organisations are actively working with gender markers. SIDA s HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO CAR - 2015 Recommended partner for Sector/focus of work (incl. integrated or Proposed Sida support multi sectorial programming ) 2015 United Nations Development CHF, Common Humanitarian Fund 20 Programme/OCHA MSF Health 15 SRB Protection 5 WFP/UNHAS Logistics 5 UNHCR Protection (Regional) 5 OCHA Coordination 4 IRC Food security/livelihood 6 ICRC Protection 5 PLAN Protection/Education 5 TOTAL: 70 amount SOURCES OCHA, draft Strategic Response Plan 2015, dated 25 November 2014 ECHO, 23 October 2014, Humanitarian Implementation Plan (HIP), Central African Republic, Chad, Cameroon. USAID, 21 November 2014, Central African Republic Complex Emergency, Fact Sheet #3. International Peace Information Service (IPIS) Mapping Conflict Motives: the Central African Republic, November 2014 HRW, Central African Republic Materials Published by Human Rights Watch since the March 2013 Seleka Coup Gabriella Ingerstad, FOI-R--3877 SE, May 2014, Central African Republic Trapped in a Cycle of Violence? Causes, Conflict Dynamics and Prospects for Peace 5
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), October 2014, Central African Republic, Analysis of the food insecurity situation November 2014 to March 2015. 6
Annex 1 7
Annex 2 8