The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016

Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, 2016. Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or registered since and stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among those who identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican and vote in Republican primaries or caucuses. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.47 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Republican Party Project typology. The 5 categories of Republicans are mutually exclusive categories determined by respondents responses on ideology, religion, frequency of service attendance, strength of Tea Party support and favorability towards the Tea Party. To ensure that the web-survey accurately reflects the national Republican Party, the typologies were weighted to the average for each type from Democracy Corps last three national surveys. Factor analysis. A factor analysis was conducted using principal-components analysis on the thermometer and agree/disagree responses, while also trying the principal factors and maximum likelihood methods to check the results. The most prominent factors from each analysis were used to compute factors scores. The PCA results retained 9 factors with eigenvalues greater than 1. Cumulatively, the 9 retained factors explain 64.1% of the variance in the feeling thermometers and attitudinal questions. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of explanatory variables (candidate doubts/democratic & Republican messages) on outcome variables (presidential revote, stated likelihood of voting for candidate, and electability), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for a hypothetical shift in explanatory variables, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. Instead, the hypothetical shifts described here and included in the results section provide information about how closely each explanatory variable is linked to the specified outcome. 1

Key findings The explosive civil war inside the GOP can move significant votes out of the Republican camp and this poll is a start. Trump is poised to win the nomination because of his strong Tea Party and working class base and because he competes among the Evangelicals AND Moderates. Cruz has faltered because he is not liked by Observant Catholics. Rubio is faltering because his hard pro-life stance blocks gains with Moderates. What unites today s Republican Party is: 1. Fundamental opposition to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Obamacare, and the Democrats who are socialists that threaten the Constitution; 2. Opposition to immigration & growing foreign presence in a more racially diverse America; 3. Skepticism about government regulations; 4. Belief in a strong military. 2

Key findings, cont. The GOP is threatened first by a revolt among the Moderates who form 30 percent of the Republican Party base. They are heavily college-educated and accept the sexual revolution. They believe most abortions should be legal & dislike the pro-life groups. They say stop trying to fight gay marriage. They are conservative, but not as ideological as the others. The GOP is threatened by a huge crack that runs right down the middle of the GOP that separates the Tea Party & Evangelicals (47 percent) from Moderates & Observant Catholics (45 percent). These are the issues that fracture the party: 1. Moderate/Catholic bloc believes government should help with healthcare & the free market needs regulation; not the Tea Party/Evangelical bloc; 2. The Moderate led bloc believes facts & science on climate change; not the Tea Party led bloc; 3. The Moderate led bloc is anti-n.r.a; not the Tea Party led bloc. 3

Key findings, cont. The Trump race in particular already pushes 20 percent of Republicans to say they are uncertain what they will do, including one-quarter of Catholics and one-third of Moderates. The Party is poised to shed voters. After attacks & messages, the Trump vote drops 14 points among Catholics & among the Moderates, the Trump margin against Hillary drops 9 points. The strongest attacks on Trump are that he is an ego-maniac that is for himself, not the country; disrespectful of women; can t be trusted with nuclear weapons; and denies America a clean energy future. The strongest Democratic messages that shift Catholics & Moderates are long-term investment in modernizing America; getting CEOs and corporations to focus on investment, not stock prices; stop fighting social issues and trying to turn back the clock so we can address the country s problems. This civil war has consequences and this poll gives people the tools they need to plan their strategy and campaigns. 4

THE GOP BASE 5

The Republican base Establishment 8% Tea Party 17% Moderate 31% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% 6

About the RPP Segments Tea Party 17% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% Moderate 31% Tea Party: Evangelicals: Observant Catholic: Moderate: 63% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 33% Strong Republican 66% working class 63% working class 63% working class 66% college educated 75% married 74% married 58% unmarried 64% married 62% male 51% male 55% male 52% female 36% live in Conservative Heartland 46% live in Expanded East Coast 7

GOP PRIMARY 8

Trump dominates primary vote choice Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 32 Primary Vote Choice 18 17 12 8 9 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 3 9

No evidence any candidate considered more electable than Trump Regardless of who you are supporting for president, which of the Republican candidates for president has the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate in November? Best Chance in November 34 17 18 21 6 2 1 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 10

Trump's base is in the Tea Party bloc Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 50 Primary Vote Choice Tea Party 26 12 7 4 0 2 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 11

Trump and Cruz are splitting the Evangelical vote Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Evangelicals 30 30 17 17 3 2 2 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 12

Catholic vote split between Kasich, Trump and Rubio Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Observant Catholic 25 21 28 15 7 2 1 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 13

Moderates vote fragmented, with Trump more than competitive Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Moderates 24 21 18 17 4 6 10 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 14

Trump s support starts with working class base Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Working Class v. College Educated 39 24 18 18 11 25 10 15 8 9 3 3 11 7 Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 15

Men s preference for Trump drives up his margins Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Men v. Women 38 26 19 17 18 16 14 13 11 10 7 2 4 5 Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 16

WHAT DO REPUBLICANS BELIEVE? 17

The factors that underlie GOP attitudes: anti-democratic twice as powerful as pro-republican factor % of responses explained by each variable 23.81 10.29 5.78 4.68 3.72 2.87 2.58 2.29 2.14 Dem. Leaders, Party, Policies GOP Leaders & Party Trump, antiimmgration, populism, environmentalism Conservative attitude on social issues Attitudes towards women, minorities, and politicians associated with them Role of government Attitudes towards minorities, immigrants, women, Kasich & Bush Free market economic attitudes Populism & community 18

Dominant underlying dimension is anti-obama, Clinton, Democrats, and their threat to constitution FACTOR 1: Democratic leaders & Democrats generally Explains 23.81% of Responses 5.81 4.81 4.76 4.68 4.44 3.97 3.75 3.74 Barack Obama Democratic Party Constitution under daily attack by Obama Admin. Hillary Clinton Affordable Care Act/Obamacare Democratic policies so misguided they threaten the country Nancy Pelosi Bernie Sanders 19

Hillary Clinton now viewed more negatively than Obama Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 7.1 Mean: 8.2 Mean: 15.3 Mean: 13.5 Mean: 16.6 Mean: 19.6 Net: -94 Net: -89 Net: -89 Net: -84 Net: -79 Net: -68 1 1 1 6 6 10 89 84 72 80 73 66 95 90 90 90 85 78 Hillary Clinton Nancy Pelosi Dem Party Barack Obama Bill Clinton Bernie Sanders 20

Important underlying dimension defined by Trump and immigration FACTOR 3: Trump, opposition to non-english speaking immigrants, support for taxing the rich and environmentalism Explains 5.78% of Responses 9.10 8.10 6.94 6.59 6.46 Donald Trump It bothers me when immigrants don't speak English Rich should pay more taxes Measures to address global warming Measures to protect environment 21

Reject evidence & facts on immigration more than any other subject Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Net migration from Mexico has been zero or less since 2005, the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the U.S. has declined to 1.3 million since 2007. Definitely true -23 Definitely the liberal media NET -6 39 77 +54 Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. -41-9 28 59 +18 States that have passed laws closing loopholes at gun shows some people use to get around background checks have seen 40 percent fewer cases of fatal domestic violence incidence and 40 percent fewer police killed on duty. -43-5 28 57 +14 Women on average make 77 cents for every dollar a man makes. -74-20 10 26-48 22

WHAT ISSUES & VALUES UNITE ALL GOP FACTIONS? 23

What unites the GOP? Democrats a threat to the nation Disdain for its leaders, starting with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. Democrats are socialists Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. Disdain for Obamacare. Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants & foreign born It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English. Want a nominee who will fight against the fact that: 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Strong military key The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Constitution threatened The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration. Regulation harmful Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. 24

Socialist Democrats threaten nation's well-being: all factions believe Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -21 34 79 +58 All Republicans -12 58 88 +76 Tea Party -8 56 92 +84 Tea Party -4 73 96 +92 Evangelical -18 45 82 +64 Evangelical -7 73 93 +86 Observant Catholic -22-4 17 78 +56 Observant Catholic -8 42 92 +84 Moderate -36-6 15 64 +28 Moderate -24-5 38 76 +52 25

Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants, want a nominee to fight illegal immigration For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans -34-10 29 66 +32 All Republicans -87-67 4 13-74 Tea Party -18-7 36 82 +64 Tea Party -96-76 4-92 Evangelical -36-8 26 64 +28 Evangelical -95-74 5-90 Observant Catholic -47-9 26 53 +6 Observant Catholic -91-74 4 9-82 Moderate -41-16 26 59 +18 Moderate -71-46 9 29-42 26

All GOP factions agree on peace through strength Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -17 37 83 +66 Tea Party -12-6 63 88 +76 Evangelical -9-3 38 91 +82 Observant Catholic -33 14 67 +34 Moderate -16 33 84 +68 27

Consensus that Constitution is under attack Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -14-3 62 86 +72 Tea Party -5-3 85 95 +90 Evangelical -10-2 72 90 +80 Observant Catholic -23 53 77 +54 Moderate -20-7 41 80 +60 28

GOP consensus that regulation does more harm than good Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -13 36 87 +74 Tea Party -13 54 87 +74 Evangelical -6 39 94 +88 Observant Catholic -7 15 93 +86 Moderate -24 31 76 +52 29

GOP CIVIL WAR: BEGINS WITH MODERATES 30

31 Two-thirds of Moderates believe that abortion should be legal in most cases Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? Legal in all cases Illegal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases +26 +88 +12 +30 94 37 63 44 56 65 35 51 6 16 20 13 24 11 7 Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

GOP attitudes strongly gravitate around attitudes towards homosexuality and abortion FACTOR 4: Conservative attitudes on social issues Explains 4.68% of Responses 18.04 16.09 14.66 9.59 7.00 Homosexuality should be discouraged Gay marriage Abotion should be illegal in all cases Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood 32

Moderates hostile to pro-life groups and for Planned Parenthood Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable % Unfavorable 74 77 89 71 50 41 66 52 30 29 13 70 84 64 44 37 Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood 33

Only Moderates accept sexual revolution and pre-marital sex Many Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Women and men feel free to have sex without any interest in getting married, forming a family or a long-term relationship. Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans -44-18 30 56 +12 Tea Party -50-19 27 50 -- Evangelical -72-32 12 27-45 Observant Catholic -67-23 17 33-34 Moderate -14-5 47 86 +72 34

Moderates isolated in GOP by their lack of negativity towards gay marriage Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Unfavorable 86 78 59 57 83 74 37 30 Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Gay Marriage 35

Moderates want to accept homosexuality and gay marriage, not discourage and fight it For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Gay marriage is now legal in the U.S. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans -50-26 29 50 -- All Republicans -53-39 27 46-7 Tea Party -42-11 23 58 +16 Tea Party -43-34 22 57 +14 Evangelical -28-14 54 72 +44 Evangelical -81-64 12 19-62 Observant Catholic -51-30 32 49-2 Observant Catholic -70-47 20 30-40 Moderate -73-45 8 26-47 Moderate -24-13 51 75 +51 36

Moderates don t seek communities with shared political values Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. It's important to me to live in a place where most people share my political views. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -58-11 7 42-16 Tea Party -52-11 4 48-4 Evangelical -49-8 10 51 +2 Observant Catholic -35-1 16 65 +30 Moderate -77-20 4 23-54 37

Moderate stand apart on climate change and environmental protection Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Because the earth is getting warmer because of what humans are doing, we need to begin taking serious measures to address global warming. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET There needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -54-28 11 46-8 All Republicans -57-21 7 43-14 Tea Party -59-34 11 41-18 Tea Party -67-27 3 33-34 Evangelical -69-43 31-38 Evangelical -67-29 2 33-34 Observant Catholic -52-16 18 48-4 Observant Catholic -54-11 18 46-8 Moderate -36-12 15 64 +28 Moderate -38-108 62 +24 38

Moderates don't rally to Scalia Supreme Court replacement Below is a statement by a Republican candidate about the country. Please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Republican candidate who says it. SCALIA: Everything we believe in is at stake in this election. Justice Scalia's death means that voters in November will decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control the White House, the Supreme Court and the U.S. Senate. Liberals really could be fully in control and unions could get more power, business could face suffocating regulation, we could lose the right to bear arms, abortions could be available without restrictions and the president s illegal executive action on amnesty could go forward. We must unify as a Party to win in November. Much more likely All Republicans 41 70 Tea Party 66 81 Evangelical 55 78 Observant Catholic 37 73 Moderate 24 57 39

GOP CIVIL WAR: TEA PARTY & EVANGELICALS vs. MODERATES & CATHOLICS 40

Free market and low taxes win support from Tea Party and Evangelicals, but not so much Moderates & Catholics Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. A free market economy needs government regulation in order to best serve the public interest. People making over $250,000 a year should pay a lot more in taxes. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans -63-163 37-26 All Republicans -60-27 12 40-20 Tea Party -78-25 4 22-56 Tea Party -62-31 6 38-24 Evangelical -76-22 24-52 Evangelical -72-32 10 28-44 Observant Catholic -33-8 9 67 +34 Observant Catholic -44-27 24 56 +12 Moderate -55-10 45-10 Moderate -53-16 11 47-6 41

Tea Party & Evangelicals reject climate change consensus, not so with Catholics & Moderates Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. Definitely just the liberal media Definitely true NET All Republicans -59-28 9 41-18 Tea Party -77-53 9 23-54 Evangelical -73-31 5 26-47 Observant Catholic -48-12 10 52 +4 Moderate -35-14 14 65 +30 42

Moderates & Catholics not fans of N.R.A Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable 82 70 39 39 62 53 26 23 Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate N.R.A 43

GOP CIVIL WAR PRESENTS IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES 44

Trump pushes 20 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? TOTAL Other Not Sure Won t Vote 76 83 84 5 20 3 7 10 9 9 2 8 4 3 3 7 5 Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 45

Observant Catholics: Trump pushes uncertain to 24 percent, Cruz pushes 21percent to Clinton Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Observant Catholic Other Not Sure Won t Vote 70 66 69 24 6 8 12 Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 4 21 Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 12 13 19 7 7 3 4 2 2 Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 46

Moderates: Trump pushes 30 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Moderates Other Not Sure Won t Vote 83 71 60 30 3 12 10 15 Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 14 15 Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 1 8 6 12 5 2 3 Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 47

Strongest attacks on Trump are ego, views of women, and security Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Donald Trump in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump? ATTACKS ON DONALD TRUMP Very serious doubts EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country. 24 46 WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. 20 34 NATIONAL SECURITY: He is not qualified to deal with national security issues and shouldn't be trusted with our nuclear weapons. 19 39 BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change when clean energy is America's future. 12 25 ANTI-TRADE: His America First economic policies and opposition to all global trade agreements means American business will lose out and America will be less competitive in the world. 10 27 48

Abortion position most worrisome about Rubio Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Marco Rubio in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Marco Rubio? ATTACKS ON MARCO RUBIO Very serious doubts ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest. 20 36 GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. 19 30 WEAK: He is too weak to stand up to our adversaries, like Vladimir Putin. 16 33 INEXPERIENCED: He is a junior U.S. Senator with no executive experience and could be another Obama. 13 32 BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change, even though Florida is already paying the price of extreme weather and even though it denies Florida the benefit of clean energy. 8 23 49

Attacks lead 25% to pull away from Trump but 30 percent pull off from Cruz and Rubio After reading these doubts about [Republican Candidate], how much less likely are you to vote for [Republican Candidate] in a race against Hillary Clinton? Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely 75 69 70 25 10 8 9 7 8 31 30 14 9 Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Trump Cruz Rubio 9 12 50

For moderates, top attacks are abortion, gay marriage and women Moderates Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for [Republican candidate] in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about [Republican candidate]? MODERATES TRUMP DOUBTS EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country. WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. IMMIGRANTS: He would expel millions of undocumented immigrants and is intolerant of immigrants, Hispanics, Muslims, and people who look different. CRUZ DOUBTS PRO-LIFE: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest, and is fighting to defund Planned Parenthood. ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. GRIDLOCK WORSE: He is so ideological and uncompromising that he led to the shutdown of the federal government and will make gridlock worse. RUBIO DOUBTS Very serious doubts 37 33 56 53 31 46 45 59 30 27 51 56 ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest. GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. DEPENDENCY: He is the only GOP presidential candidate who wants to spend $1 trillion on new tax credits for the poor that will create just more dependency. 21 27 36 45 49 57 51

America first economic policies and big oil produced opposition to clean energy future shift vote away IMPACT OF TRUMP DOUBTS ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 82: Big oil-clean energy 52

Catholics most receptive to criticisms about Rubio After reading these doubts about Marco Rubio, how much less likely are you to vote for Marco Rubio in a race against Hillary Clinton? IMPACT OF DOUBTS ON VOTE FOR MARCO RUBIO Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely 80 68 60 67 32 40 7 33 15 15 2 20 6 5 9 Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic 11 22 10 9 14 53

WINNING DISCONTENTED GOP VOTERS 54

Infrastructure, CEO governance, billionaire donors top themes Below are some statements by a Democratic candidate about the country. For each statement, please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Democratic candidate who says it. INVESTMENT: We have been too focused on short-term fixes when our country should be making long-term investments so America can lead in the 21st century. We should make sure we get our money's worth for all government spending, and we know national public investments pay off. Lincoln built the transcontinental railroad; Eisenhower built the interstate highway system. Today, America must modernize our infrastructure, 14 17 27 58 expand our energy and Internet grid and ensure we lead in all scientific research. CORPORATIONS: CEOs and senior corporate management have let down their own companies, employees, and America. They jacked up their compensation while outsourcing jobs and avoided paying taxes by moving their corporate headquarters overseas. And they stopped investing in research, innovation and their own work force. We should change the rules around CEO pay so they profit from long-term investment in innovation and skill training, not from inflating stock prices. 13 16 19 Much more likely 48 CAMPAIGN MONEY: Billionaires and corporate donors are spending millions of dollars on secret campaign contributions to buy politicians and make sure government works for them, not you. It is time to reduce the toxic influence of money in politics and fight for a new way of funding campaigns that amplifies the voices of everyday Americans so democracy works for all of us. 11 14 23 48 BEYOND SOCIAL ISSUES: So many leaders are determined to turn back the clock on social issues that are settled for the rest of the country. Leave Planned Parenthood alone, allow women to get contraceptive coverage, and accept that same sex marriages are now legal. Let's start addressing our country's problems. 10 13 11 34 WORKING WOMEN: Women today are working as much as men, and our policies need to catch up to the modern family where many women are on their own. Its time women get equal pay with men, help with childcare, and paid sick days and family leave. 9 14 26 49 CLIMATE: So many leaders are stuck in the past, denying climate change and supporting the agenda of the big oil and coal companies. That's hurting the country. American technology and innovation has driven down the price of solar power by 80 percent and now creates 8 times more new jobs a year than old energy. America's economic future lies with building a new, clean energy economy. 6 9 12 27 55

Moving beyond social issues and infrastructure investment have greatest impact on voting for Clinton over Trump IMPACT OF MESSAGES ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 113: (DEM) Beyond Social Issues 56

Attacks, Democratic messages dislodge Catholics & Moderates Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Trump Trump v. Clinton Clinton Other Not sure Won t Vote -4 +6 +3 -- -- -- -14 -- +14-5 +4 -- 91 87 84 84 70 9 1 7 10 8 56 12 15 15 3 6 5 12 1 1 7 9 24 8 6 6 4 38 7 10 21 60 55 10 30 30 3 3 12 10 14 15 17 Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic 57

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