Statistics do not always lie What do the statistics say about Luxembourg? Guy Schuller 15 November 2012
Introductory Remarks Statistics = the law of large numbers Challenge for LU a very small country. however a lot of statistics are available.. selections were even needed! 2
Seven Paradoxes Population paradox EU institutions paradox Labour paradox De-industrialisation paradox Export paradox Well-Being paradox Growth paradox 3
Population Paradox Why a paradox? - During decades the evolution of the population has largely been driven by immigration, immigration has largely been driven by economic growth. - During and after the recent financial and economic crisis the net immigration trend continued, without economic growth! - Furthermore during the last 2 decades there is also a positive natural movement of nationals; this is opposite to several EU countries. 4
Economic versus Population Growth 5
Evolution of Luxembourg Population 1821-2011 6
Population Paradox At the beginning of 2012 524 000 persons Two positional changes for LU: - Since 2004 the second smallest population of EU - Since 2010 in the half million club To point to two other major issues by quoting a specific figure: 150 000 = one figure, two dimensions This result characterises two issues: 1) The increase of a quarter of a century 2) The increase overnight In other words 1) the variation between the end of the eighties and this evening 2) and the change between this evening and tomorrow morning 7
Population Growth (2000 2011) 8
Overnight population change 160 000 persons come from abroad (commuters) 10 000 persons work «outside the country» = 150 000 Inflow 160 000 people France 80 000 Belgium 40 000 Germany 40 000 They work in various sectors Total labour costs : 8.0 billion euros Taxes and social security contributions 2.5 billion euros Consumption in Luxembourg 1.6 billion euros 9
Overnight population change 160 000 persons come from abroad (commuters) 10 000 persons work «outside the country» = 150 000 Outflow 10 000 people Resident population working in international/european institutions Total employed people of these institutions : 13 000 (3 000 live abroad) Total labour cost : 1.1 billion euros 10
EU institutions Paradox Why a paradox? Because Luxembourg is both: a net receiver and a net contributor. One question, two possible answers 11
EU institutions Paradox For direct flows; contribution to the operational budget of the Commission LU appears as a net contributor; per capita even the most important contributor. For both the direct and indirect flows, Luxembourg is a net receiver. Indirect flows include among others the operational costs of institutions hosted in a member state. BUT - misallocation: - Expenses abroad - Import content of products and services provided in LU Due to the lack of detailed information it is difficult to measure this dimension. Nevertheless it may be assumed that even if we revise indirect flows, Luxembourg is a net receiver, albeit by a smaller amount than indicated by EU institutions. 12
Labour Paradox Why a paradox? In parallel with job creation, Luxembourg is facing an increase in unemployment. 13
Employment 18 000 Annual change in employment and unemployment; in persons 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0-2 000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Employment Unemployment 14
Employment 18 000 Unemployment and job creation; in persons 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Unemployed Created jobs 15
Employment 1995 215 000 people 2012 370 000 1995-2012 +155 000 people (3.4%/y) 2012 % National Resident 29 Foreign Resident 27 Commuters 44 16
De - industrialisation Paradox Why a paradox? There is a de-industrialisation process in relative terms, but NOT in absolute terms when we consider employment trends over the past 15 years. One issue, two approaches: relative versus absolute 17
Employment by sector (share in %), 2000, 2011 18 Source: Statec
Employment by sector (thousands) 2000 to 2011 19 Source: Statec
Employment (1995=100) 20 Source: Eurostat Statec
Employment (1995=100) 21 Source: Statec
Employment (1995=100) 22 Source: Ameco, Statec
Employment (1995=100) 23 Source: Ameco, Statec
Export Paradox Why a paradox? Luxembourg has the same production structure (in terms of goods and services) as other OECD countries, but its export product structure is the exact opposite. However the question is if the paradox is on the Luxembourg side or on the other side. 24
Export of Goods and Services 25
Export of Goods and Services 26
Current Account 27 Source: BCL, Statec
Current Account 28 Source: BCL, Statec
Well-Being Paradox is also called Easterlin Paradox Why a paradox? Above a certain threshold (12 000$ par capita per year) a further increase of income does not improve the subjective satisfaction of life. 29
GDP versus GNI GDP = the total value added realised in LU by whomever: whether national or foreign actors! GNI = GDP net foreign labour and capital income For large economies the difference is small (1 or 2%). Those economies having large investments abroad (USA, Japan, Switzerland), the GNI is even larger than the GDP. Small and very small open economies have a significant discrepancy in the other direction that is to say that the GNI is lower than the GDP. Among OECD countries the largest discrepancy is found for Luxembourg = 30% The two other following European countries : Iceland and Ireland = 20%. 30 2010 Luxembourg GDP per capita 79 500 GNI per capita 56 500
GNI versus Subjective Well Being 31 Source: Satisfaction de la vie: R. Veenhoven, World Database of Happiness, collection Happiness in Nations, Nation Report Luxembourg, Assessed at 2010-07-26 from http://worlddatabaseofhappiness.eur.nl; RNB (Revenu National Brut European Commission Ameco database series OVGN, NPTN; authors own calculations
GNI versus Subjective Well Being Source: RNB par tête en PPA 2000-2008 World Bank database et pour 2009 World Bank publication, Moyenne calculs 32 des auteurs; Happiness Surveys: R Veenhoven, http://worlddatabaseofhappiness.eur.nl/.
Well being in Luxembourg and in the neighbouring countries 33
Subjective Well Being by Income % des personnes qui disent être satisfaites de leur vie 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 93,9 89,5 84,5 85,5 88,0 81,6 77,278,2 71,072,8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Quintile s de revenus Luxembourg EU-15 34 Source: ESS (2001-2004)
Subjective Well Being by age 35 Source: ESS (2001-2004)
Growth Paradox Why a paradox? There are at least two reasons expressed here in the form of questions: - Should a very rich country have an exponential growth? - Regarding environmental challenges, should the content of growth not be of higher priority? 36
Regarding exponential growth LU neighbouring countries show a trend to a linear growth (a progressively declining growth rate).... whereas LU records an exponential growth during the eighties and nineties at a high income level. Long term forecast based on recent past growth rate equals exponential growth. Shouldn t be linear growth more realistic? 37
Average Growth rate by decade (1960-2010) 38 Source: Ameco, Statec
By way of conclusion (1) Yes they can! Statistics say a lot about LU and there is even much more to say Go to: http://www.statistiques.public.lu/fr/acteurs/statec/index.html Statistics provide a means to assess reality more accurately to illustrate the complexity of a seemingly simple and, sometimes simplified, reality to take over a more subtle and nuanced view of things, where we might otherwise make hasty judgements and be left with a very one-sided view. 39
By way of conclusion(2) However figures and graphs can also be misleading: i. e. relative versus absolute, nominal versus real, linear versus exponential, are only three of the numerous dimensional issues to be considered. We should therefore be careful about the way we use statistics and very cautious regarding possible misuses and abuses. I wish to warn against unduly high statistical expectations: not everything is measurable or can be expressed by statistics. Perhaps it is even the most important things that cannot. En complétant Antoine de Saint Exupéry: On ne voit bien qu avec le cœur, l essentiel est invisible pour les yeux et sans doute aussi pour les statistiques. 40
By way of conclusion(3) However, number of areas can be explored and assessed more accurately with statistics. They can dissect reality and provide enlightening information that enables us to discern what is at stake and take informed decisions. It s true, statistics do not always lie. 41
Thank you very much for your attention guy.schuller@statec.etat.lu 42