Economic Research Institute of Erie Black School of Business Dr. Kenneth Louie Director, ERIE 13 th ERIE Conference July 27, 2016 www.eriedata.org
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Three Themes The Erie Economy in 2016 ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Immigration Overview 2
The Erie Economy in 2016 New Format of the Erie Leading Index Latest Erie Data www.eriedata.org 3
The Erie Economy in 2016 Erie Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) (Feb 1999) (May 2008) 8,200 + 6,400 12,900 (Aug 2003) 126,400 (May 2016) (Jan 2010) + 4,800 Source: PA Dept. of Labor & Industry 4
The Erie Economy in 2016 Employment, Jan May, 2016 (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; PA Dept. of Labor & Industry 5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment Rate (%) The Erie Economy in 2016 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 12.0 10.0 7/90 3/91 9.2% (Dec 1991) 3/01 11/01 12/07 6/09 10.1% (Jan 2010) 8.0 6.0 4.0 U.S. Erie 7.0% (March 2002) PA 4.3% (March 2000) 4.5% (March 2007) 6.7% 5.5% 4.7% 2.0 0.0 Latest: May 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; PA Dept. of Labor & Industry 6
Indexed GDP (2001 = 100) The Erie Economy in 2016 Erie & U.S. Output (GDP) 175 150 2014 GDP: Erie: $10,856,000,000 U.S.: $17,316,314,000,000 AA %DRGDP (2001-2014): Erie: +0.2% U.S.: +1.7% U.S. 158 135 125 Erie 100 75 Latest: 2014 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 7
Real Per Capita Income (2000$) The Erie Economy in 2016 Real Income Per Capita 50,000 40,000 30,000 % Increase (1969-2014): Erie: 64.3% US: 69.2% 24,946 US Erie 44,721 42,760 36,567 36,078 42,207 37,590 20,000 22,877 10,000 - Latest: 2014 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS 8
The Erie Economy in 2016 Real Median Household income, 2010-2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS 8
The Erie Economy in 2016 Poverty Rate, 2010-2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 9
The Erie Economy in 2016 PNC s Northwest PA Economic Outlook Forecasts by PNC Financial Services Group, 2 nd Quarter 2016 10
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) The Stats America Model (Indiana University), but with a local twist 1. Input Measures of Human Capital (23%) 2. Input Measures of Economic Dynamics (23%) 3. Output Measures of Productivity & Employment (23%) 4. Output Measures of Economic Health & Well-Being (8%) 5. Measures of Local Entrepreneurial & Innovative Activity (23%) 11
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) Important Caveats Data limitations Individual components may change over time, due to changes in data availability or data definitions Managing the compilation of the Index over time to maintain reliability and consistency Caution needed when comparing Erie to PA, U.S., and peer areas 12
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) 1. Input Measures of Human Capital Educational Attainment Young Adult (Ages 25-44) Population Growth Rate High-Tech Employment Share Technology-Based Knowledge Occupations, as a Share of Total Employment 13
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) 2. Input Measures of Economic Dynamics Internet Access Establishment Churn: Net Establishment Entry Rate Net Job Creation Rate Average Small Establishments per 10,000 Workers Average Large Establishments per 10,000 Workers 14
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) 3. Output Measures of Productivity & Employment Employment-Population Ratio Real GDP per Worker Average Annual Rate of Change in Real GDP per Worker Average Patents per 1,000 Workers 15
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) 4. Output Measures of Economic Health & Well- Being Poverty Rate Unemployment Rate Average Net Internal Migration Rate Changes in Per Capita Personal Income Changes in Average Wage and Salary Earnings Changes in Average Proprietors Income 16
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) 5. Measures of Local Entrepreneurial & Innovative Activity Data Gannon SBDC Ben Franklin Technology Partners/CNP Bridgeway Capital U.S. SBA: SBIR and STTR funding for local companies Survey of local individuals and businesses regarding entrepreneurship and innovation Local Initiatives, e.g., Innovation Collaborative, Innovation Commons 17
ERIE Index of Entrepreneurship & Innovation (EIEI) Human Capital Economic Dynamics Productivity & Employment Economic Health & Well-Being Local Entrepreneurial & Innovative Activity So how is Erie doing in each of these five component areas? 18
Immigration: Overview "Foreign born" or "immigrant" often used interchangeably. Includes: naturalized citizens (47%) lawful permanent residents refugees and asylees persons on certain temporary visas the unauthorized Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 19
Immigration: Overview Size and Share of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States, 1970-2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 20
Immigration: Overview Top Ten Largest Immigrant Groups, 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 21
Immigration: Overview Size and Share of the Foreign-Born Population, Selected MSAs, 2010-2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 22
Immigration: Overview Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 Annual Estimates of the Components of Population Change, July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015 Total Population Change [1] Natural Increase Vital Events Net Migration Births Deaths Total International Domestic -891 437 3,155 2,718-1,256 628-1,884 Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 Total Population Change [1] Natural Increase Vital Events Net Migration Births Deaths Total International Domestic -2,521 2,222 16,756 14,534-4,356 2,845-7,201 Net international migration for the United States includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 23
Immigration: Overview Refugee Arrivals in Erie: 2003: 99 2004: 232 2005: 312 2006: 121 2007: 171 2008-2009: 466 2009-2010: 661 2010-2011: 790 2011-2012: 785 2012-2013: 584 2013-2014: 621 2014-2015: 632 Oct 2015 present: 429 Countries of Origin, Refugees Arriving in Erie, October 2015 present AFGHANISTAN BELARUS BURMA BHUTAN DEM REP OF CONGO ERITREA ETHIOPIA FRANCE IRAQ NEPAL RUSSIA SOMALIA SRI LANKA SUDAN SYRIA UKRAINE Source: Pennsylvania Refugee Resettlement Program 24
Contact Information I invite you to contact me to: share your ideas and suggestions let us know if you need assistance with finding, analyzing, and understanding economic data or other information related to the Erie economy discuss possible ERIE research projects you can conduct with us Ken Louie, Director klouie@psu.edu 898-6265 A research center of the Black School of Business at Penn State Behrend 25