Research Director, Dr (Adm.Sc.), MSc (Econ.) Jari Kaivo-oja a

Research Director, Dr (Adm.Sc.), MSc (Econ.) Jari Kaivo-oja a a Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Finland Development Manager, Dr (Psychology) Arja Konttila b b Criminal Sanctions Region of Western Finland, Turku, Finland

The amount of prison population is a good measure of the general security climate in different countries. Empirical database of the study covers years 1993-2007. In the study, historical development of the prison population in Europe, U.S.A. and Russian Federation are analyzed. We also report prison population trends of South Africa, Turkey and Canada. This study analyses critical changes in the prison population during the years 1993-2007. These data sets consist of comprehensive national-level data of the Eurostat (Eurostat 2010).

There are many factors which affect the size of prison populations. Such factors are (1) juridical laws, changes in penal policies, and normative systems, (2) employment rate, (3) demographic changes, (4) social norm structures, (5) sex related norms and values, (6) political decisions, (7) technical security innovations, (8) goals and means of prison service, (9) courts and their decisions (Lavenex 2004, Louks, Lyner & Sullivan 1998, Blom-Hansen 2005, Lerch & Schwellus 2006, Deams 2008, Fábián 2010, Ochsen, 2010). There is no obvious single explanation for crime rates.

Subjective security High subjective security Low objective security A. People in Twin Towers High subjective security High objective security B. Ideal situation in security Low subjective security Low objective security C. People typically in developing countries Low subjective security High objective security D. People secured but feeling insecure, security bias Objective security

There are different ways to define the concept of prison population. In this article, the definition of Eurostat is used: prison population is the total number of adult and juvenile prisoners (including pretrial detainees) at 1 September. Including offenders held in Prison Administration facilities, other facilities, juvenile offenders' institutions, drug addicts' institutions and psychiatric or other hospitals.

The criminality of a country means the total recorded offenses against the criminal code including homicide, violent crime, robbery, domestic burglary, theft of a motor vehicle and drug trafficking. Most analyses are based on the total crime rates. Total crime statistics include offences against the penal code or criminal code. Less serious crimes (misdemeanors) are generally excluded (Eurostat 2010). Here our focus: total criminality

Figures 2 and Fig. 3. Prison population in the Nordic countries, 1993-2007. Prison population in relation to total population in the Nordic countries Prison population 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Prison population in the Nordic countries, 1993-2007 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Time 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Prison population/total population Prison population in relation to total population in the Nordic countries, 1993-2007 0,02700 0,02200 0,01700 0,01200 0,00700 0,00200-0,00300 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Time 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Table 1. Prison population in relation to total population in the Nordic countries. Basic statistical analysis geo/time Min Max Range Average Median Var Standard deviation Denmark 0,00060 0,00075 0,00015 0,00066 0,00065 1,72617E-09 4,15472E-05 Finland 0,00052 0,00074 0,00023 0,00063 0,00064 3,9394E-09 6,27646E-05 Iceland 0,00001 0,00036 0,00034 0,00004 0,00002 7,65384E-09 8,74862E-05 Norway 0,00048 0,00065 0,00017 0,00055 0,00053 2,95883E-09 5,43952E-05 Sweden 0,00065 0,02523 0,02458 0,02067 0,02191 3,41279E-05 0,00584191 Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden

Fig 4 and Fig. 5. Prison population in the Baltic countries, 1993-2007. Prison population in relation to total population in the Baltic countries Prison population 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Prison population in the Baltic countries, 1993-2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Time Estonia Latvia Lithuania Prison popluation/total population 0,01200 0,01000 0,00800 0,00600 0,00400 0,00200 0,00000 Prison population in relation to total population in the Baltic countries, 1993-2007 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Time 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Table 2. Prison population in relation to total population in the Baltic countries. Basic statistical analysis Estonia Latvia Lithuania Min Max Range Average Median Var Standard deviation Estonia 0,00038 0,00302 0,00263 0,00067 0,00051 4,24025E-07 0,000651172 Latvia 0,00287 0,00523 0,00236 0,00373 0,00367 3,72102E-07 0,000610002 Lithuania 0,00281 0,01030 0,00749 0,00738 0,00786 4,08509E-06 0,002021161

c Figures 6 and 7. Prison population in Western Europe, 1993-2007. Prison population in relation to total population in Western Europe Prison population 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Prison population in Western Europe, 1993-2007 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Time Austria Belgium France Germany (including ex-gdr from 1991) Ireland Liechtenstein Luxembourg (Grand- Duché) Netherlands Northern Ireland Scotland Switzerland Prison population/total population 0,02500 0,02000 0,01500 0,01000 0,00500 0,00000 Prison population in relation to total population in the Baltic countries, 1993-2007 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Time Austria Belgium France Germany Ireland Liechtenstein Luxembourg (Grand-Duché) Netherlands Northern Ireland Scotland Switzerland Table 3. Prison population in relation to total population in Western Europe. Basic statistical analysis Min Max Range Average Median Var Standard deviation Austria 0,00091 0,00263 0,00172 0,00206 0,00196 2,02806E-07 0,00045034 Belgium 0,00072 0,00097 0,00025 0,00083 0,00084 6,25931E-09 7,91158E-05 France 0,00089 0,00729 0,00640 0,00640 0,00679 2,48034E-06 0,00157491 Germany 0,00074 0,00779 0,00705 0,00658 0,00688 2,94407E-06 0,001715829 Ireland 0,00002 0,00079 0,00076 0,00008 0,00004 3,79472E-08 0,0001948 Liechtenstein 0,00001 0,00278 0,00277 0,00020 0,00002 5,07798E-07 0,000712599 Luxembourg (Grand-Duché) 0,00105 0,02109 0,02003 0,01384 0,01377 2,3698E-05 0,004868057 Netherlands 0,00053 0,00108 0,00055 0,00080 0,00077 2,34836E-08 0,000153244 Northern Ireland 0,00005 0,00051 0,00045 0,00011 0,00009 1,21324E-08 0,000110147 Scotland 0,00080 0,00111 0,00031 0,00089 0,00086 6,65762E-09 8,15943E-05 Switzerland 0,00068 0,00083 0,00015 0,00078 0,00079 1,9596E-09 4,42674E-05

Population Figures 8 and 9. Prison population in Southern Europe, 1993-2007. Prison population in relation to total population in Southern Europe 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1993 Prison population in Southern Europe, 1993-2007 1995 1997 1999 2001 Time 2003 2005 2007 Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Greece Italy Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the Malta Montenegro Portugal Serbia Spain Prison population/total population 0,10000 0,09000 0,08000 0,07000 0,06000 0,05000 0,04000 0,03000 0,02000 0,01000 0,00000 Prison population in relation to total population in Southern Europe, 1993-2007 19 93 19 94 1995 1996 1997 19 98 19 99 2000 Time 2001 2002 20 03 20 04 2005 2006 2007 Table 4. Prison population in relation to total population in Southern Europe. Basic statistical analysis. Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Greece Italy Macedonia Malta Montenegro Portugal Serbia Spain Turkey Min Max Range Average Median Var Standard deviation Bulgaria 0,00023 0,00029 0,00005 0,00027 0,00028 1,59023E-10 1,26104E-05 Croatia 0,00180 0,00258 0,00078 0,00226 0,00234 6,54818E-08 0,000255894 Cyprus 0,00031 0,00364 0,00333 0,00078 0,00033 1,16388E-06 0,001078832 Greece 0,00002 0,00015 0,00013 0,00008 0,00006 1,52906E-09 3,91032E-05 Italy 0,00012 0,01185 0,01173 0,00903 0,01024 8,37971E-06 0,002894772 Macedonia 0,06137 0,09411 0,03274 0,08329 0,08402 6,44345E-05 0,008027109 Malta 0,00002 0,00309 0,00307 0,00023 0,00002 6,25061E-07 0,000790608 Montenegro 0,00031 0,00060 0,00029 0,00042 0,00042 7,83397E-09 8,85097E-05 Portugal 0,00007 0,00236 0,00229 0,00176 0,00181 2,4951E-07 0,00049951 Serbia 0,00048 0,02200 0,02152 0,01780 0,01896 2,6716E-05 0,005168755 Spain 0,00073 0,00085 0,00012 0,00077 0,00077 6,3852E-10 2,52689E-05 Turkey 0,00110 0,00151 0,00041 0,00124 0,00116 1,91001E-08 0,000138203

Figures 12 and 13. Prison population in the U.S.A., Russian Federation, South Africa, Canada, Turkey and Europe, 1993-2007. Prison population in relation total population in the U.S.A., Russian Federation, South Africa, Canada, Turkey and Europe, 1993-2007 Prison population in U.S.A., Russian Federation, South Africa, Tukey and Europe, 1993-2007 Prison population in relation to total population in U.S.A, Canada, Russian Federation, Europe, Turkey and general rate, 1993-2007 Prison population 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 Russian Federation United States South Africa Canada Europe (total) Turkey Prison population/total population 0,03500 0,03000 0,02500 0,02000 0,01500 0,01000 0,00500 0,00000 Russian Federation United States South Africa Canada Europe (total) Turkey General rate 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Time 2003 2005 2007 Time Table 6. Prison population in relation to total population in in the U.S.A., Russian Federation, South Africa, Turkey and Europe. Basic statistical analysis Min Max Range Average Median Var Standard deviation Russian Federation 0,00530 0,00709 0,00179 0,00620 0,00619 3,56553E-07 0,000597121 United States 0,00071 0,00770 0,00698 0,00616 0,00665 2,73742E-06 0,001654514 South Africa 0,00266 0,03224 0,02958 0,00705 0,00365 9,14614E-05 0,009563543 Canada 0,00105 0,00134 0,00029 0,00118 0,00116 1,09338E-08 0,000104565 Europe (total) 0,00121 0,00156 0,00034 0,00131 0,00129 1,07342E-08 0,000103606 Turkey 0,00110 0,00151 0,00041 0,00124 0,00116 1,91001E-08 0,000138203 General rate 0,00209 0,00798 0,00588 0,00365 0,00317 2,79874E-06 0,001672943

Prison population baseline scenario till the year 2015, the U.S.A., Russian Federation, Canada, Europe and Turkey 2500000 Prison population 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 Russian Federation United States South Africa Canada Europe Turkey 0 Time

As a larger visual summary of prison population trends we can present baseline scenarios for large regions: U.S.A., Europe, Russian Federation and Turkey till the year 2015. Last figure 25 (scenario analysis) indicates that in larger context prison population of U.S.A. is going to grow unlike in Europe, Russia, South-Africa, Canada and even in Turkey. Thus the criminal policy of U.S.A. differs quite a lot from the policy of the other larger countries/regions analyzed in this study.

New Politics of Punishment from early 1990s (Harsh sentencing policies) Gang criminality culture combined with drugs Concervative political climate in many U.S. States Individealistic attitudes and values with liberalistic policy Illegal immigration and high immigration rate in general combined to high unemployment rate

The United States has the highest documented incarceration rate in the world at 754 persons in prison or jail per 100,000 (as of 2008).[3] A report released Feb. 28, 2008 indicates that more than 1 in 100 adults in the United States are in prison. The United States has less than 5% of the world's population and 23.4% of the world's prison population. Incarceration is one of the main forms of punishment for the commission of felony offenses in the United States. Individuals awaiting trial, being held pending citations for non-custodial offenses, and those convicted of misdemeanors (crimes which carry a sentence of less than one year), are generally held in county jails. Large correction population Racial and ethnic tensions of a society: 70% prisoners are non-white

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:us_correctional_population_timeline.gif

This study found three different kinds of prison population trends. These trends have different background criminality policy settings. First, one basic trend is: when total criminality increases, prison population increases. This is the case especially in Turkey. The 2 nd basic model is: when total criminality increases, prison population does not increase. The aggregated trend of European countries reminds very much this kind of trend model. The 3 rd alternative trend model is: the total criminality decreases and prison population increases. This is a consequence of the criminal policy model of U.S.A. In U.S.A. law offenders are straightforwardly locked in jail in order to reduce the total criminality and this connection is quite linear. This trend reminds the criminal policy of Russia but the connection is not as straightforward in Russia as it is in the U.S.A. As a larger visual summary of prison population trends we can present baseline scenarios for large regions: U.S.A., Europe, Russian Federation and Turkey till the year 2015. Last figure 25 indicates that in larger context prison population of U.S.A. is going to grow unlike in Europe, Russia, South-Africa, Canada and even in Turkey. Thus the criminal policy of U.S.A. differs quite a lot from the policy of the other larger countries/regions analyzed in this study.

Research Director, Dr (Adm.Sc.), MSc (Econ.) Jari Kaivo-oja a a Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Finland Email: jari.kaivo-oja@tse.fi Development Manager, Dr (Psychology) Arja Konttila b b Criminal Sanctions Region of Western Finland, Turku, Finland Email: arja.konttila@om.fi