AVT Business School AMCHAM Program The Global Economy Today Are We Out of the Woods But Into the Dark? Prof. Paul Tiffany, Ph.D. August 21, 2015 Copenhagen
Why Have Business Risk and Uncertainty Increased Today? The World Is Growing Smaller And Yet More Complex and Unpredictable Weird Food and Names (but cheap labor!) Our 51 st State Culture Chaos Yes! Freedom Land Who Cares? (why aren t we the center?) (and is the USA still the center?)
The Global Economy in 2015 We Are Here! Global GDP: c. $107T in PPP. 2014 global GDP growth: 2.6%; 2015 projected 2.8% (though double-speed: 2.0% for advanced countries and 4.4% for EM nations). Global Population: approximately 7.2 billion people at the end of 2014. (Source: World Bank, IMF, CIA World Factbook, others)
World s 21 Largest Economies (January 2015 est. in USD Trillions) Rank - Country 2015 GDP (PPP) World $107,000,000,000,000* 1 China $18.976 2 USA $18.125 3 India $ 7.997 4 Japan $ 4.843 5 Germany $ 3.815 6 Russia $ 3.458 7 Brazil $ 3.259 8 Indonesia $ 2.840 9 UK $ 2.641 10 France $ 2.634 (Blue = EM country) Rank - Country _ 2015 GDP (PPP) 10 Mexico $ 2.224 11 Italy $ 2.157 12 So. Korea $ 1.854 13 Sa. Arabia $ 1.668 14 Canada $ 1.640 15 Spain $ 1.619 16 Turkey $ 1.569 17 Iran $ 1.354 18 Australia $ 1.137 19 Taiwan $ 1.125 20 Nigeria $ 1.009 21 Thailand $ 1.031 (no other country over $1 trillion PPP; Denmark GDP = $460 billion PPP) Source: http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts * Global GDP is World Bank estimate for 2015.
World GDP Growth Annual % - 2005-2014 6% 4% 2% 3.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% E 2.8% for 2015 1.5% 0-2% -2.1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: World Bank
World Population 20 Largest Countries (July 2014 est.) Rank-Country Pop. % of World Rank-Country Pop. % of World World 7,295,000,000 100% 1. PRC (China) 1,393,784,000 19.10% 2. India 1,267,402,000 17.05% 3. USA 322,583,000 4.42% 4. Indonesia 252,812,000 3.46% 5. Brazil 202,034,000 2.76% 6. Pakistan 185,133,000 2.69% 7. Nigeria 178,517,000 2.41% 8. Bangladesh 158,513,000 2.28% 9. Russia 142,468,000 2.02% 10. Japan 127,000,000 1.80% 11. Mexico 123,799,000 1.63% 12. Philippines 100,097,000 1.47% 13. Ethiopia 96,506,000 1.29% 14. Vietnam 92,548,000 1.30% 15. Egypt 83,387,000 1.18% 16. Germany 82,652,000 1.13% 17. Iran 78,470,000 1.12% 18. Turkey 75,837,000 1.12% 19. Congo 69,360,000 1.04% 20. Thailand 67,223,000 0.95% #21-22-23: France, UK, Italy, all in low 60 million population range, while #24-25-26 Burma, South Africa, and Tanzania are the only other countries over 50 million pop. Denmark pop. = 5.66 million. Source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
Projected Population Growth: Where Will the Resources Come From? Projected Global Population Growth to 2050 2015: 7+ Billion X 2020 2050 2040 2030 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Population in Billions of People 2000 2010 1.65 1.75 1.86 2.07 2.30 2.54 3.03 3.70 4.45 5.29 6.12 6.91 7.67 8.32 8.82 9.19 Source: United Nations data
What Is Globalization? Globalization : A Definition The process by which the economies of the world's nation-states are becoming more closely integrated, particularly through trade, technology, and financial flows across borders. (As a second order effect, globalization also refers to broader social, cultural, environmental, and political integration among the world's nation-states.)
We Have Witnessed the Greatest Global Economic Shift in 100 Years Emerging Economies Share of Global GDP 100% 75% Developed Economies 50% 25% 1000 1500 1820 1913 1950 2005 2025 *At purchasing power parity Source: The New Titans, The Economist (September 16, 2006)
Source: The Economist (June 20, 2012) Global GDP by Nation Over Time
Current Hot Spots USA Ukraine Mr. Putin Mrs. Merkel & Greece Middle East Mr. Xi DaDa
Henry Luce s Old American Century The American Century the 20 th Century was coined by Henry Luce, co-founder and publisher of Time Magazine, Life, etc. (cf. The American Century, 1941 essay in Life magazine); Luce was born and raised in China.
A Lesson from the Past?: Modern World History for Dummies Spain and the 16th Century Holland and the 17th Century France and the 18th Century Great Britain and the 19th Century America and the 20th Century Who will be the dominant power in XXI Century?
China Today Key Drivers: Large Population (1.34 billion people; but growth rate of 0.5% is ranked 153 in the world) Determined Savers (60% personal savings 2000-2010) Economic Dynamism and Entrepreneurialism Disciplined Labor Force (795 million workers) Rising Level of Education (engineering, technology, sciences, business management; c.7 million total college graduates in 2010-2011) A Will to Win (nationalist pride: The century of humiliation is over; now it s our turn )
Chinese SOEs and Political Corruption Some 203 of China s richest 1,300 citizens, about 15%, are delegates to the nation s Parliament (National People s Congress and the Chinese People s Political Consultative Congress, which have a total of 5,200 representatives). For these 203, their combined net worth is estimated at $463.8 billion. Eighteen of these 203 parliamentarians individually have a net worth greater than the combined reported wealth of all 535 members of the United States Congress, the nine members of the Supreme Court, and the 23 members of President Obama s cabinet. A major source of this wealth is from Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE). While accounting for a relatively small proportion of total manufacturing, in key sectors these SOE s still dominate the economy, such as in automobiles, information technology, petrochemicals, aviation, insurance, energy, banking, railways, media, shipping, construction, metals, industrial chemicals, as well as emerging high-tech sectors like biotech and avionics. While the total number of SOEs are declining, there are still more than 155,000 in the country employing well over 50 million workers directly, and tens of millions more indirectly. While some generate good returns, most of them underperform private firms or operate at a loss and have heavy debt loads but serve as the source of wealth of the country s CCCP elite political leadership.
SECRETARY The Formal Structure of China Telecom BOARD CHAIR & CEO PRESIDENT ----------------------------------- EVP CFO But What You Don t See! CPC Leader (Shuji) functionary functionary Etc. Communist Party of China The primary telecoms firm in the nation is China Telecom, with approximately RMB 325 billion revenue ($54B) in 2014 and nearly RMB 20 billion net profit ($3.3B). The firm has about 200 million mobile and over 250 million fixed line subscribers and employs more than 300,000. It s traded on the NYSE as well as the local Chinese exchange. However, less than 20% of the shares are privately owned as the majority is controlled by the Government (that is, the CPC) and local investment groups affiliated with regional government entities and agencies. The Party boss must approve any significant policy change or decision by the firm s formal management.
And Today A New Leader Has Ascended to the Presidency Mr. Xi Jinping, son of a revolutionary leader (and a so-called princeling whose father was a close associate of Mao) assumed the head-of-state position on March 14, 2013. Like most Chinese leaders, we know relatively little about him and how/why he was chosen for his new post. For example, how does he see future PRC-USA relations? Good question! Mr. Xi s wife (his 2 nd ), one of China s most famous singers. The New CCCP Politburo Leadership Mr. Xi with new Prime Minister (and No. 2) Mr. Li Keqiang (Where s Waldo?)
So What Does President Xi Want for China? Fact, or Fiction? The hope is that Xi is a reformer who will guide China through domestic transformation and to responsible statecraft. The fear is that Xi is a nationalist, who has set China on an aggressive course of bullying its neighbors and confronting the United States. R. Kuhn, Xi Jinping s Chinese Dream, NYT (6-4-13) The Chinese Dream, Xi has said, is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Xi s Chinese Dream is described as achieving the Two 100s -- the material goal of China becoming a moderately well-off society by about 2020 (100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party) and the modernization goal of China becoming a fully developed nation by about 2049 (100th anniversary of the People s Republic). The Chinese Dream has four parts: Strong China (economically, politically, diplomatically, scientifically, militarily); Civilized China (equity and fairness, rich culture, high morals); Harmonious China (amity among social classes); Beautiful China (healthy environment, low pollution). A moderately well-off society is where all citizens, rural and urban, enjoy high standards of living. This includes doubling the 2010 G.D.P. per capita (approaching $10,000 per person) by about 2020 and completing urbanization (roughly one billion people, 70 percent of China s population) by about 2030. And he wants respect for China as a global superpower.
China s Economy in 2015 2014 GDP: $11.4 trillion nominal, $18.6 trillion in PPP (but be careful of all PRC stats!). 2014 GDP growth was 7.4% lowest since 1990; 2015 projection now 7.1% and going to 6.9 by 2017. But China s GDP has grown by over 60% over the past five years. P/C GDP was c. $11,906 in 2013, ranks 118 in world; the goal is to match advanced economies by 2050 now is <1/5 of USA p/c income. And income distribution is uneven, especially between rural western provinces and rich coastal provinces (though Gini coefficient for wealth distribution of 41.5 is about the same as USA). The PRC is now world s largest economy in PPP (moved ahead of USA in 2014). Since unlocking RMB in 2005, currency has risen c. 20% + to USD (though currently fluctuating due to central bank policy maneuvers to fight economic slowdown). Personal consumption only c. 35% of GDP (vs. c. 67%+ in USA, 50-60% in Europe). Service sector is now c. 49% of GDP, compared to 80%+ in the advanced economies. Exports still dominate the economy (c. 35%+ of GDP, or c. 3X more than USA). ForEx reserves and gold holdings of $3.84 trillion at end of 2014. Labor force is approximately 795 million people (40% in agriculture); China needs to add 10 million urban jobs annually to maintain growth targets; did 13 million in 2014. QUESTION: Will inflation remain under control and/or will a financial and/or housing bubble burst in 2015? (E.g., Shanghai Exchange in a downward trend after massive expansion fueled by speculation; still millions of unoccupied apartments and structures.)
China s Growing Military Might A Threat to the West, or Something Else? Whoops, wrong address; sorry The Liaoning - China s First Carrier - Deployed September 25, 2012 (but don t forget what happened to the USSR when it had an arms race )
Chinese Port Construction Fiery Cross Reef Spratly Islands - 2015
Top 10 Key Issues for China s Future 1. Political participation, transparency of government 2. Social unrest in the rural regions: two Chinas 3. Trade tensions with the USA, EU, other nations 4. Re-valuation of the Chinese currency (+ 20% since 05) 5. Boosting internal consumption 6. Infrastructure development (e.g., transportation, schools) 7. Relations with its Asian neighbors (Japan, India, others) 8. Establishment of a value system beyond money and wealth 9. Cultural issues, individualism, freedom of expression 10. Aging of the population-- and gender and health issues (and how to pay for improving them)
So Where is China Going? Scenarios: Soft Landing? Hard Landing? or Mid-Air Refueling and No Landing?
And Is China Entering an Era of Secular Decline? China: Projected growth pattern assuming steady reforms and no major shocks 1995 2010 2011 2015 2016 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 GDP growth (percent per year) 9.9% 8.6% 7.0% 5.9% 5.0% (is this too optimistic?) Source: World Bank (2012)
Some Harsh Lessons for EM Nations It is difficult for a nation to transition from Emerging Market status to Middle-Income status, and very difficult to do so rapidly (that is, under 20-30 years). Perceived early-stage economic growth for EMs is often reflected more in currency appreciation and bond valuations but not in significant appreciation in per-capita income growth or stock market valuations, which are more indicative of underlying economic strength. EM growth is usually highly dependent on growth in Advanced Economy nations. And, recently, note how difficult it s been to sustain growth for those nations that have recently entered into Middle-Income status (e.g., Greece, Ireland, Spain)
Who Knows What Might Happen Next? 1980: THE FUTURE? Peak oil; Depletion of natural resources; Japan ascendant; Dow at 40,000; Etc., etc. A firm has to hedge bets and strategize wisely!
So What Does Denmark Do Going Forward? How do Danish firms hedge their bets as the country ages, population growth stagnates, and globalization becomes an increasingly endangered concept?