Review: Trends and Pyramids: What is a population? Is the world overpopulated? Is global warming caused by overpopulation? Concepts #1: demographics, growth rates, death rates
Thomas Malthus: 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population
Ie = P*A*T (environmental impact = population x affluence x technology)
2 Views on population and the environment: A. Neo-Mathusianism: A rising population outstrips our planet s carrying capacity 1968: Erlich and The Population Bomb B. Over-Consumption: There are plenty of resources available: some people, classes, and places consume too much; others don t get enough one sixth of the world's people are so poor that they produce no significant emissions.
Counter argument 1: Global population peaking anyway Example: Brazil, Population shifts A Mexican Rural Community: Tepetotutla in Oaxaca Total fertility (average total number of children in lifetime from 8 to 2 in one generation (benefits of long-term study ) Declining Brazilian population http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=-ebkmo1ygz8 3 MIN
Fertility rates below replacement across much of the world: Fertility rates: number of children born per woman; replacement fertility = enough daughters born to replace existing women. The rate is 2.1 if child mortality is low and male/female children survive in equal numbers, otherwise the rate will need to be adjusted
Migration And fertility: Shift of Rural Population to Urban Areas has reduced Fertility rates
Disagreements on population trends: Royal Society pub http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2779
UN 2017 figures fromunited Nations Population Division
Argument #2: Feminist critique It s not population It s about fertility decisions Amartya Sen's Question: Why are 100 Million Women missing? reasons? Ratio of Men to Women (from Sen)
Population Demography: the population pyramid: How are people distributed by age, gender? Pakistan: 2012-declining youth! more boys!
Kerala, India: more girls! High Poverty but High Women Survival Kerala Literacy 94.59%, highest in India Per capita income $265 Matrilineal Culture
1. Not associated with poverty 2. Women's perceived worth is important: i. access to outside income ii. women's work recognized as productive iii. access to economic resources iv. understanding of deprivation 3. access to 'gainful employment' highly correlated with survival Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize for Economics, 1998
Fertility Decisions: Mead Cain Women in Bangladesh 1. Cain argues for a need to understand women s lives in society a. income earning and spatial constraint b. security: property and divorce 2. Within this context, women seek to have male children Male children can undertake marketing activities unavailable to girls Male children can take care of mother after divorce
Argument #3: Overconsumption, not overpopulation is the real problem OVERCONSUMPTION Critique: one sixth of the world's people are so poor that they produce no significant emissions. 1. Critique of population as variable: So, I = P*A*T (impact = population * affluence * technology) Should be changed to: I = C*A*T (C for consumers instead of people) David Satterthwaite Affluenza: http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=hpm7vi_cdbw
2. Critique of Class: Global or National Class? The wealthiest 20% of the world account for 76.6% of total private consumption. The poorest fifth just 1.5% Anup Shah, 2011 http://www.globalissues.org/issue/235/consumption-and-consumerism What does this tell us about how best to reduce environmental impacts?
Thinking through Class and consumption 1. The US: Poor don t consume much
Class and Consumption by Country
The poorest 20% of the world s population uses what % of world energy resources? A. 20% B. 25% C. 1.5% D. 15%
Which of these 4 countries has the greatest equality in energy use? A. Kenya B. Thailand C. Norway D. United States
Overconsumption: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkqrc1ua 79Y Scavenger Guy in Oakland http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukfxgg2x ni8 Home: French film too late to be a pessimist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdlcanyf HhA
Pyramids can take many forms, however, depending on Birth rates and death rates : New Zealand
What percentage of consumers in each country?
Declining Brazilian population http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ebkmo1ygz8 xx
Demographic Transitions & Ecological Impacts 2 Views on population and the environment: A. Neo-Mathusianism: A rising population outstrips our planet s carrying capacity 1968: Erlich and The Population Bomb B. Over-Consumption: There are plenty of resources available: some people, classes, and places consume too much; others too little Environmental degradation results from unequal distribution of resources
Population Demography Concepts #3: the population pyramid: How are people distributed by age, gender? Pakistan 2005: Lots of young people!
Amartya Sen's Question: Why are 100 Million Women missing? reasons? Ratio of Men to Women (from Sen)
Sen s Analysis: Women's mortality (and fertility) 1. Not associated with poverty 2. Women's perceived worth is important: i. access to outside income ii. women's work recognized as productive iii. access to economic resources iv. understanding of deprivation 3. access to 'gainful employment' highly correlated with survival
Kerala, India: Kerala Literacy 94.59%, highest in India Per capita income $265 Matrilineal Culture numbers = TBR (total birth rate): lifetime total children/woman
So: population? 2 perspectives: Women Empowerment standpoint (from Sen): Population growth is a symptom poverty and powerlessness accounts for demographic decisions, namely, women deciding to have more children Environmental standpoint: consumption is important, population can be important, depending on Consumption levels Environmental interactions Local land-use intensity and population concentration