Royal Danish Embassy T. Kosciuskos 36, LT-01100 Vilnius Tel: +370 (5) 264 8768 Mob: +370 6995 7760 Fax: +370 (5) 231 2300 The Defence Attaché To Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania Newsletter for the Baltics Week 37 2017 The following information is gathered from usually reliable and open sources, mainly from the Baltic News Service (BNS), respective defence ministries press releases and websites as well as various newspapers, etc.
Table of contents THE BALTICS... 3 Latvians trust in army lowest among Baltic States... 3 NATO generals arrived in Riga for annual exercise... 3 THE BALTICS AND RUSSIA... 3 Spruds: relations with Russia will not improve before Russian presidential elections... 3 NATO aircraft scrambled 3 times from Lithuania last week over Russian military aircraft... 4 THE BALTICS AND EXERCISE... 4 Latvia is the only NATO member sending an additional observation mission to Zapad... 4 Estonia to send observers to Zapad drills... 4 LITHUANIA... 4 Grybauskaite: Lithuania better prepared than ever for Zapad drills... 4 Defence Minister says there is too much nervousness over Zapad... 5 Military allowed to shoot down unwanted drones... 5 Lithuania to take part in Swedish Aurora exercise... 5 Discussion regarding the defence budget... 6 LATVIA... 6 Information operations against Latvia possible during Zapad... 6 Latvian and Danish foreign ministers: Zapad is not a direct military threat to the Baltics... 6 Higher leadership of defence sector to meet with the Commander of Allied Air Command... 7 Vejonis: Canada's decision to lead NATO battle group in Latvia promotes security... 7 Parliamentary committee rejects proposal for reinstating compulsory military service... 7 11 million euro for eastern border to make Latvia more safe... 7 Pabriks: Zapad manoeuvres can increase Russia s isolation... 8 ESTONIA... 8 Estonia hopes to help Ukraine fight against corruption with Denmark... 8 Estonian and Finnish Defence Ministers speak about Zapad and defence cooperation... 8 Defence Industry Cluster signs cooperation deal with German cyber authority... 9 Foreign Minister and Poroshenko discuss deployment of UN peacekeepers in Ukraine... 9 2
THE BALTICS Latvians trust in army lowest among Baltic States On 10 September, Eurobarometer published a survey, which showed that 67 percent of Latvian residents trusted the National Armed Forces in spring 2017. This is the lowest indicator among the Baltic States and by 3 percentage points lower than in the fall of 2016. In comparison, 81 percent of Estonians trust their army, which is by 2 percentage points more than in the fall of 2016, and 74 percent of Lithuanians trust the armed forces, also up 2 percentage points from last fall. NATO generals arrived in Riga for annual exercise On 10-22 September, the Latvian Defence Academy in Riga are hosting the two NATO exercises Steadfast Pyramid 2017 and Steadfast Pinnacle 2017 with participation of more than 40 commanders from NATO member states, Finland and Sweden. The goal of the two military exercises is to improve the ability of top-level officers and commanders to plan and lead joint operations. Steadfast Pyramid 2017 is the first part of the exercise that lasted until 15 September, and Steadfast Pinnacle 2017 will last from 17 September until 22 September. General Sir James Everard, NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander, is also among the participants. During his visit, the General will meet with Latvian Defence Minister Raimonds Bergmanis and Chief of Defence Leonids Kalnins to discuss international and regional security issues. THE BALTICS AND RUSSIA Spruds: relations with Russia will not improve before Russian presidential elections On 14 September, Andris Spruds, the head of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, said that an improvement of relations with Russia is not expected before the Russian presidential elections. He said that everyone wants an easing of tensions, but that there is no basis for such easing. Russia has expressed a specific offer in improving relations with the United States. ''The bad blood in relations between Russia and the West will not be disappearing anytime soon. This half-cold war will continue. There will be areas where the two sides will not be able to come together, and areas where a common language will be possible to find,'' Spruds said. He 3
added that the information space is the main area of confrontation between the two sides. NATO aircraft scrambled 3 times from Lithuania last week over Russian military aircraft NATO aircraft serving in the air-policing mission of the Baltic States were last week scrambled three times from Lithuania to intercept Russian aircraft flying above the Baltic Sea. At the beginning of the week, air-policing aircrafts identified and accompanied two Russian SU-27 Aircraft flying in the international airspace. The NATO aircraft were scrambled two more times on Friday over AN-12 transport airplane. All four Russian aircraft had their onboard transponders off. THE BALTICS AND EXERCISE Latvia is the only NATO member sending an additional observation mission to Zapad On 11 September, Latvian Defence Minister Raimonds Bergmanis said that Latvia is the only NATO member state sending an additional observation mission to the upcoming Zapad 2017 military exercise. Latvia has expressed a wish to send additional monitors to the drills Russia is staging together with Belarus, and the Belarusian side has granted its permission. Bergmanis indicated, however, that what Belarus allows Latvia to observe will become clear only during the exercise but that Latvia expects Belarus to comply with the agreement. It is planned that Latvia will send three monitors to Belarus and one to Russia to observe Zapad 2017. Estonia to send observers to Zapad drills Estonia is to send observers to the Belarusian-Russian joint exercise Zapad 2017. Russia decided to introduce the exercise at a training range in Luga on September 17-18 to defence attachés who have been accredited in Moscow. Estonia's defence attaché will also participate in the event. Official Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) invitations for observation have not been issued. LITHUANIA Grybauskaite: Lithuania better prepared than ever for Zapad drills 14 September, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite stated that the country is better prepared than it has ever been before for the Zapad large-scale military drills that Russia and Belarus are holding close to its borders. We ourselves are better prepared now as we have 4
more deterrence and defence instruments in our territory, and our partners, our friends from NATO are also helping us, she said. Furthermore, Grybauskaite also stated that the Baltic States should not be frightened, as that is the goal of the Zapad exercise. Defence Minister says there is too much nervousness over Zapad On 14 September, the Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis stated that the public in Lithuania is too nervous about Zapad 2017. This is what worries me most. It seems to me that we scare ourselves more than it is adequate in the situation, he said. According to the minister, the situation was more complicated half a year ago than it is now, but the Baltic States and Poland managed to convince NATO that the Alliance as a whole had to be ready for the war games. Karoblis underlined that Zapad 2017 poses a minimal threat, adding that one of the neighbours goals is to intimidate the Baltic States. Military allowed to shoot down unwanted drones On 13 August, Lithuanian Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis said that Lithuania's Armed Forces has been authorized to shoot down unwanted drones, as the increasingly popular unmanned flying devices may serve as tools of international intelligence. The measures against drones will be allowed in case of them flying above military territories, where such flights are restricted, as well as when such drones fly outside military territories during transport of important military properties and such flights threaten operations and safety of the country's defence institutions. Lithuanian security experts have repeatedly warned that unmanned flying devices had in the past few years become a popular tool of special services of some neighbouring countries, which allow collecting large amounts of intelligence information about border objects. Lithuania to take part in Swedish Aurora exercise On 11 September, Sweden launched the largest military exercise during the last 23 years, with the participation of United States and other NATO members, including Lithuania. Approx. 20 thousand soldiers will train to defend the strategic Gotland Island in the Baltic Sea, as well as other regions. Aurora proves that the attitude of a neutral country, which was continuously reducing its troops and focusing more on various military missions abroad, during the past decades has shifted. Sweden is deliberately organizing Aurora in order to show that it is ready to defeat the enemy s invasion and defend itself. 5
Discussion regarding the defence budget On 10 September, Parliamentary Speaker Viktoras Pranckietis argued that after Lithuania has reached the 2 percent mark, the defence budget should not increase. We have an agreement with parties to ensure the 2 percent. This is insufficient funding of our defence; however, it is a good demonstration, as are merely the seventh country to implement the commitment. I believe this is enough for now, and we should not keep on increasing the level, he added. However, Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis believes that the country s defence spending should not be limited to 2 percent of GDP, and should increase if seen as necessary. Pranckietis has attempted to clarify his previous statement, by saying that Lithuania's defence spending in the future will depend on available budget funds and the needs of its Armed Forces. LATVIA Information operations against Latvia possible during Zapad On 14 September, Latvian Defence Ministry State Secretary Jānis Garisons said that no one should exaggerate the threats posed by the Zapad military exercises being conducted by Russia and Belarus. However, the Latvian Defence Ministry expects that cyber and information operations will be carried out against Latvia during the exercises. ''Even though no specific activities within the Latvian armed forces are being planned in connection with Zapad, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will use the situation of the United States being tied-up in North Korea to its advantage. In order to lessen security risks, the Defence Ministry calls on Latvian residents to be vigilant while the exercises are taking place, and that they should remain vigilant also on a daily basis,'' Garisons said. Latvian and Danish foreign ministers: Zapad is not a direct military threat to the Baltics On 14 September, Latvia s Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics met with Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen in Riga. The ministers agreed that the Russian and Belarussian military exercise Zapad 2017 does not pose direct military threat to the region but Samuelsen said that it is important to follow Russia s strategy, and that there still is certain tension. Both ministers thanked each other for cooperation in different areas, including in economy and the military sector. The two ministers also discussed further steps in strengthening NATO security, the development of bilateral and regional cooperation, and shared their views on the issues of current importance on EU agenda and in the region s security policy. 6
Higher leadership of defence sector to meet with the Commander of Allied Air Command On 14 September, Defence Minister of Latvia Raimonds Bergmanis, Chief of Defence Lieutenant General Leonids Kalnins and Commander of Aviation Base Colonel Armands Saltups met with the Commander of Allied Air Command General Tod D. Wolters who arrived on a working visit in Latvia. The officials discussed the support of the Allied Air Command to the NATO enhanced Forward Presence battle groups, which strengthens Allied deterrence and collective defence. General T. Wolters will also visit Lielvarde Air Base where the NATO s Allied Air Command exercise Ramstein Dust II-17 is being conducted to observe the exercise. Vejonis: Canada's decision to lead NATO battle group in Latvia promotes security On 13 September, Latvia s President Raimonds Vejonis stated during a meeting with George Furey, Speaker of the Senate of Canada, that Canada s decision to become the lead nation of NATO s multinational battle group in Latvia has been promoting not only security, but also political and economic cooperation between the two countries. At a time when Russia is staging a major military training exercise at the Baltic States borders, we appreciate the enhanced allied presence in the region. The Canada-led NATO battle group has achieved full operational readiness, President Vejonis said. The Latvian President also noted increasing cooperation between NATO and the EU in countering hybrid threats and the significance of strategic communication, stressing the NATO mission s deterrence message and praising Canada s support to the Riga-based NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence. Parliamentary committee rejects proposal for reinstating compulsory military service On 12 September, the Latvian parliament committee on defence, interior affairs and corruption prevention rejected the proposal by MP Edvins Snore for reinstatement of the compulsory military service. Under Snore s proposal, all male Latvian citizens aged 18-27 years should be subject to the compulsory military service. The committee rejected Snore s proposal almost unanimously, as Snore was the only committee member who voted in favour of his proposal. 11 million euro for eastern border to make Latvia more safe On 12 September, the Latvian government approved 11.1 million euro financing for strengthening of the eastern border and other security measures in 2018, which will help increase people's sense of security, Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis said. According to Kozlovskis, the strengthening of the eastern border and the capacity of the National Border Guard were priorities for him as the interior minister and for his party, the 7
Unity. With this financing, the construction of the installations along the Latvian-Russian border will be completed in 2019 and similar construction will begin on the border with Belarus already next year, the interior minister said. The allocations will also help protect Latvia against the terrorist threat, illegal migration and contraband, as well as to deal with the challenges of the current geopolitical situation, he added. Pabriks: Zapad manoeuvres can increase Russia s isolation On 9 September, Latvian European Parliament member and former Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs Artis Pabriks said that he believes Russia is increasing its international isolation by organizing its Zapad 2017 military exercise, preventing de-escalation of tensions between Moscow and the West. Furthermore, Pabriks believes that the context of the Zapad exercise is important to take into consideration. This includes political developments elsewhere in the world, for instance, the parliamentary election Germany which is held at the end of September. If Russia demonstrates aggression, this can increase anti-kremlin sentiments in Germany, which in turn would affect German-Russian political and economic relations. Consequently, with its attempts to intimidate neighbours and Europe, Russia might harm its own interests. ESTONIA Estonia hopes to help Ukraine fight against corruption with Denmark 14 September, Estonian Foreign Minister Sven Mikser met with his Danish counterpart Anders Samuelsen, where he expressed hope in cooperating with Denmark to support the fight against corruption in Ukraine. Reducing corruption in Eastern Partnership countries is our common goal, Mikser stated. We would like to participate in a project led by Denmark in Ukraine so that corruptibility would decrease in the country and the country would stay on the European path, he added. The topics discussed at the meeting were the relationship between Estonia and Denmark, the EU Eastern Partnership initiative and the situation in Ukraine as well as the contribution of Danish soldiers to the increased presence of the allies in Estonia. According to Mikser, the contribution of Denmark to the allied presence in Estonia is very important to the country. Estonia's relationship with Denmark is very good and it is also proven by the fact that 200 Danish soldiers will arrive here at the start of next year to support the presence of allies in Estonia, Mikser said. The Danish unit will replace a French unit at the start of 2018 as part of NATO's enhanced forward presence. Estonian and Finnish Defence Ministers speak about Zapad and defence cooperation During the meeting on 13 September between the Estonian Minister of Defence Juri Luik and 8
his Finnish counterpart Jussi Niinisto, defence cooperation and matters related to the Zapad joint large scale military exercise of Russia and Belarus. Luik and Niinisto talked about the regional security situation in view of the Zapad large scale exercise and bilateral defence cooperation. Defence cooperation within the European Union was also on the agenda, which has been supported also by Finland. During an informal meeting of EU Defence Ministers in Tallinn last week, Federica Mogherini and the Estonian Minister of Defence both expressed hope that important decisions concerning EU defence cooperation will be reached already by the end of this year. Defence Industry Cluster signs cooperation deal with German cyber authority On 13 September, the Estonian Defence and Security Industry Innovation Cluster signed a cooperation agreement with the Cybersecurity Council of Germany to promote economically sustainable cooperation in cyber security with an international approach. The agreement was signed by the head of the Estonian Defence and Security Industry Innovation Cluster, Ingvar Parnamae, and the president of the Cybersecurity Council of Germany, Philipp von Saldern, on the fringes of the DSEI 2017 Defence and Security Industry Fair in London. Parnamae described the agreement as a landmark, as it allows strengthening both cross-sectoral cooperation and cooperation between individual companies. The focus of cooperation between Estonia and Germany in the cyber field is both on the unification of standards as well as developing new standards to support a sustainable global economic structure for cyber defence that would support both electronic commerce as well as security, he said. Foreign Minister and Poroshenko discuss deployment of UN peacekeepers in Ukraine On 12 September, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Estonian Foreign Minister Sven Mikser discussed the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers in the region of hostilities in eastern Ukraine. The parties coordinated approaches to the implementation of the initiative on the deployment of the UN peacekeeping mission in Donbass aimed to ensure proper implementation of the Minsk agreements. In this context, the Foreign Minister of Estonia clearly stated a common position on the need to deploy peacekeepers throughout the territory of certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including the uncontrolled section of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the press service of the president of Ukraine said. 9
Newsletter was prepared by Anders Faarup Nielsen (intern, Tallinn), Jakob Greve Kromann (intern, Riga), Jacob Dalsgaard Pedersen and Leah Elizabeth Winther Hamborg (interns, Vilnius) 10