OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY (EXERCISE) Public opinion polls are an important form of public input into political decision making. There is some controversy about the role polls (also called surveys) should play in a democracy. A real plus is that polling is a more direct way for the public to express policy preferences than is going through elected representatives whose job is to filter, interpret, bundle, and sometimes ignore citizens views. A negative is that polling bypasses deliberation, bargaining, and other important features of decision making. Many polls do not try to uncover how important the views are to the respondents and whether they are likely to follow through with political action. Because expressing an opinion is easier than acting on it, decision makers may give more weight to constituents concerned enough to communicate directly, lobby, and vote. Because polls both report and shape public opinion, they should be used carefully. Survey results may be ambiguous and inconsistent; sometimes they are not highly credible and not specific enough to guide policy making. They also are subject to cherry-picking, when advocates search for polls that support their political position and their opponents do the same. Public leaders know that public opinion changes in response to changing circumstances. Media exposure, the availability of new information, the calming effect of passing time, and other factors affect the public s judgments. Perhaps a new crisis pushes an earlier concern off the radar screen. This is reassuring because it means that many in the public are flexible, not dogmatic, and have the capacity to learn. Because public opinion can and does change, snapshot surveys taken only once are less useful than when the questions are repeated over time and trends are identified.
2 Then, too, politicians face multiple issues at the same time. Some of these are framed as budget issues and some not. Public responses to a budget question out of the larger political context may not give useful guidance to public leaders. It is important for all users decision makers, citizens, and the media to distinguish valid polls from counterfeit polls. Many polls are legitimate, objective, and scientifically valid. For example, surveys that sample the population are subject to sampling error, meaning that the results may be different from what the entire population would say; the size of the sampling error should be disclosed for each question. Mainstream media, think tanks, and universities undertake many state and local polls. Other polls (such as self-selected online polls) are not valid readings of opinions held by the general public. Some polls are fraudulent public relations devices aimed at convincing the respondents of some viewpoint or that the sender cares what they think. Polls are open to abuse and manipulation; loaded wording, differences in the format of questions, sampling bias, and careless or biased analysis of the survey results may distort our understanding of the public s views. Take a Close Look at a Survey Included here is a press release and a survey commissioned by an alliance of state employee unions. Released when the governor submitted her budget proposal to the legislature early in 2009, it obviously supports a political message: do not cut services or lay off employees but instead raise taxes. It is designed to counter the governor s ability to set the agenda and frame the issues in budgetary politics. The budget battle in 2009 was shaped by (1) a large and rapidly increasing deficit, sharply falling state revenues, and an economic downturn of historic proportion; (2) a very popular, fiscally conservative, Republican governor; and (3) a veto-proof Democratic majority in both houses of the legislature.
3 A professional polling organization designed and administered the telephone survey that was conducted by professional interviewers in January 2009. Drawn by random selection from the voter file, 600 adult voters likely to vote in the 2010 general election were surveyed. The data were weighted by gender, age, union membership, party, race, and county to represent the population accurately. The margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. Source: Reprinted by permission of the Connecticut State Employees Bargaining Agent Coalition (SEBAC) and Myers Research & Strategic Services. SEBAC, Press Release of January 30 2009; Myers Research & Strategic Services, Memorandum of January 27, 2009 and attachments. World Public Opinion, 1999. Expecting More Say, http://www.policyattitudes.org/ems.htm, accessed Sept. 25, 2007.
AFT Connecticut American Association of University Professors Connecticut State University American Association of University Professors UCONN American Federation of State, County, & Municipal Employees - Council 4 Congress of Connecticut Community Colleges/ SEIU Local 1973 Media Advisory for Friday, Jan. 30, 2009: Contact: Larry Dorman, (860) 989-9127 (cell) Matt O'Connor (860) 221-5696 (cell) Eric Bailey, (860) 997-2717 (cell) Poll Shows Public has No Appetite for Cuts in Services Provided by the State Voters believe cuts to public services will further damage Connecticut's economy A newly released poll shows that broad majorities of Connecticut voters say that cutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a time of recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether in the public sector or the private sector, will do the same. "With significant media attention given to state employees and the state budget, we wanted to find out how voters in Connecticut viewed the services provided by state workers, how they felt about the public service workers themselves, and what the voters believe would be the best way to begin to rebuild Connecticut s damaged economy," said Andrew Myers of Myers Research, Strategic Services, LLC. Connecticut Association of Prosecutors Connecticut Employees Union Independent/ SEIU Local 511 Connecticut Federations of School Administrators Local 61 Connecticut State Police Union CSEA SEIU Local 2001 International Brotherhood of Police Officers/SEIU Local 731 Most compelling is that when voters are asked to choose the best option for balancing Connecticut's budget, a strong majority (54 percent) chose increasing taxes. Notably, generating new revenue outpaces the other alternatives by very significant margins, with just 19 percent favoring cuts to services and just 15 percent choosing layoffs of public service workers. "The findings in this survey are crystal clear in that Connecticut voters inherently understand just what many Nobel Prize-winning economists have been saying -- that is, cutting public services in an economic downturn further damages an already fragile economy" Myers said. "Every day we hear from people who thank us for our services," says state trooper Steven Rief, a 20-year veteran of the force and President of the Connecticut State Police Union. "It's a true honor to serve the people of our state, and I'm very heartened by the poll results that show that our services are so highly valued." New England Healthcare Employees Union, District 1199/SEIU Protective Services Employees Coalition/IAFF-IUPA The poll also provided a roadmap for how Connecticut voters prefer to raise new revenue to fund critical services. Specifically, topping the list are plans to eliminate corporate tax loopholes, followed by strong majority support for raising taxes on the wealthiest. The Connecticut State Police Union is one of thirteen unions in the State Employee Bargaining Agent Coalition (SEBAC), which serves to unite approximately 50,000 Connecticut State Employees to address issues of common concern.
The poll, commissioned by SEBAC, surveyed 600 Connecticut likely 2010 voters. The poll was designed and administered by Myers Research, Strategic Services, LLC. Calling took place between January 21 and 23, 2009 and was conducted by professional interviewers. The data are stratified by the projected geographic contribution to the expected total statewide vote. The margin of error for this survey at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies. Attached: Memorandum " Voters Value Connecticut Public Service Workers and Services; No Appetite for Layoffs or Cuts" SEBAC - Connecticut Statewide Research Question & Response Slides # # #
Memorandum Date: January 27, 2009 To: From: Interested Parties Andrew Myers and Lauren Spangler Myers Research Strategic Services Voters Value Connecticut Public Service Workers and Services No Appetite for Layoffs or Cuts With Connecticut - like most other states - facing a massive budget shortfall, the state s voters show little willingness to make cuts to state services or to lay off public service workers, according to the results of a recent statewide survey 1. Of most importance is that voters believe that state public service workers perform vital, necessary services that benefit all residents. Further, broad majorities of voters say that cutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a time of recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether in the public sector or the private sector, will do the same. In addition, these same voters believe that there should be few, if any, cuts to services the state provides. Notably, Connecticut public service workers receive strong ratings across-the-board, earning a 66-degree mean personal feeling thermometer on a 0 to 100 scale, 2 based on a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 61 to 11 percent. Specific public service workers, such as corrections officers, janitors, public school teachers, and doctors and nurses in state health care facilities earn even stronger reviews individually. And, when it comes to the job that Connecticut public service workers are doing, a broad majority of voters (56 percent) give them excellent or good reviews, while just 33 percent rate their performance as just fair or poor. More compelling, however, when voters are asked to choose between making large, across-the-board cuts to all public services, laying off a large portion of public service 1 These findings are based on a survey of 600 likely November 2010 voters in Connecticut. Calling took place from November January 21-23, 2009, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote,. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater. 2 Myers Research Strategic Services uses a mean thermometer scale of zero to one hundred to measure candidate personal standing. Zero represents a very cool, negative feeling, one hundred represents a very warm, favorable feeling, and 50 means neither warm nor cool. The mean thermometer score is derived among respondents who can rate individual or group. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 2 workers, or increasing taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations, a strong majority (54 percent) choose to increase taxes in order to balance Connecticut s budget. Notably, raising taxes outpaces the other alternatives by very significant margins, with just 19 percent favoring cuts to services and just 15 percent choosing layoffs of public service workers. Clearly, there is little to no appetite for cuts or layoffs, and the Governor and legislature would be wise to begin by finding new revenue. Importantly, this survey also provides a roadmap for how voters prefer to raise new revenue to fund critical services. Specifically, topping the list are plans to eliminate corporate tax loopholes, followed by strong majority support for raising taxes on the wealthiest that is families earning more than $150,000 a year, but particularly those earning a million dollars or more each year. Notably, even in Fairfield County we see majority level support for raising taxes on the wealthiest families. Further, though with somewhat less intensity than the latter two, there is broad support for raising cigarette and alcohol taxes, as well as for raising the sales tax by one penny and expanding the services it covers. In fact, the only tax increase that voters feel should be off the table is raising the state s gas tax, which is met with strong majority disapproval. A more detailed analysis of the survey s central findings follows. State Public Service Workers Earn Solid Ratings Somewhat counter to trends often observed, Connecticut public service workers earn strong personal and professional ratings from the state s voters. On the whole, Connecticut public service workers receive a warm 66-degree mean personal feeling thermometer, with 61 percent of voters rating them favorably and 11 percent giving them unfavorable reviews, and as displayed below, reviews grow even stronger for specific workers, such as public school teachers, corrections officers, doctors and nurses in state health care facilities, and janitors. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 3 When it comes to the job Connecticut public service workers are doing, a broad majority of voters (56 percent) give them excellent or good ratings, while one third (33 percent) rate their job performance as just fair or poor. Beneath the surface, a majority of all partisan audiences give public service workers positive job reviews, with registered Democrats (62 percent excellent/good 30 percent fair/poor) and registered Republicans (59 percent excellent/good 29 percent fair/poor) giving them nearly equal job ratings. Among registered independents, public service workers earn slightly more mixed job reviews, with a bare majority (50 percent) rating the job they are doing as excellent or good and 38 percent giving them just fair or poor reviews. Beyond the strong personal and professional ratings they receive, probing voters about state public service workers provides further evidence that they are valued and widely perceived as providing critical services. Agreement that state public service workers perform vital and needed services that benefit us all is nearly universal, with 87 percent of voters overall agreeing with this statement. Further, verbatim responses about public service workers reinforce the notion that they perform essential functions, while often receiving less recognition than they deserve. They keep everything working. They re here to help you in all kinds of weather. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 4 They deserve much more than what people give them. They are working for the people. Voters Broadly Open to Raising Taxes But Oppose Service Cuts and Layoffs When voters are presented with a choice between making large, across-the-board cuts to all public services, laying off a large portion of public service workers, or increasing taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations, a majority (54 percent) choose to increase taxes in order to balance Connecticut s budget. In contrast, just 19 percent want services cut and only 15 percent choose to layoff public service workers. Some gaps do emerge beneath the surface, although it is important to note that pluralities of all demographic audiences choose to increase taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations when forced to make the choice. Blue-collar audiences, those without a college degree, overwhelmingly choose raising taxes on big corporations and the wealthiest (60 percent), with 17 percent choosing cuts to services, and only 11 percent wanting to lay off public service workers. In contrast, more upscale college graduates are less willing to raise taxes on big corporations and the wealthy (49 percent) and slightly more willing to choose cuts to services (21 percent) and worker layoffs (20 percent) than their less-educated counterparts. This education gap is driven largely by college-educated men and older college graduates, those over age 50. Additionally, as detailed in the table below, broad majorities of both Democrats and independents choose raising taxes on big corporations and the wealthiest individuals over other options. In comparison, more tax-sensitive Republicans are more willing than other partisans to see service cuts or worker layoffs, though even a plurality of them favor tax increases over other options. BEST APPROACH TO BALANCING THE BUDGET Tax Increases Service Cuts Worker Layoffs Total 54 19 15 Self-ID Democrats 63 16 12 Self-ID Independents 55 19 16 Self-ID Republicans 39 24 21 Registered Democrats 60 16 15 Registered Independents 55 18 14 Registered Republicans 43 25 18 When probing voters more deeply about service cuts and laying off public sector employees, broad majorities of voters say that cutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a time of recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether in the public sector or the private sector, will do the same. In fact, there is very little evidence that voters agree with the cuts and layoffs 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 5 proposed by the Governor, and she and other government leaders are likely to face significant backlash if they move forward with these proposals. Further underscoring the notion that Connecticut voters are much more willing to raise taxes than to cut critical services is a split-sample message exercise, with one construct pitting the Governor s proposal against a plan to make cuts to services and increase some taxes, and another construct with the Governor s proposal pitted against a plan to close corporate tax loopholes and raise taxes on the wealthiest, without cutting critical services. The exact language of these three approaches to closing the budget deficit is displayed below. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 6 In this exercise, voters respond considerably more strongly to raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest while keeping critical services than they do to making cuts to services and increasing some taxes. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 7 Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes, Raising Taxes for Wealthiest Seen As Solutions To Ensure Funding of Critical Services Providing even further proof of Connecticut voters willingness to tax big corporations, as we see in virtually every state in which we conduct research, broad support exists for eliminating corporate tax loopholes that allow corporations to pay less in taxes than they actually owe. Support for closing these loopholes is both broad and deep, and in fact, a large majority of nearly every bloc of voters in the state strongly favors this proposal. As highlighted below, support for eliminating corporate tax loopholes crosses partisan lines, though Democrats clearly fuel the intensity behind closing these loopholes. Aside from eliminating corporate tax loopholes, raising taxes on the wealthiest that is families earning more than $150,000 a year, but particularly those earning a million dollars a year or more is favored by a broad majority of voters across the state. Notably, even in Fairfield County, highlighted in the graph below as the New York Media Market, we see majority level support for raising taxes on the wealthiest families, with a bare majority there strongly favoring this tax increase on the wealthiest. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 8 Finally, broad support does exist for raising cigarette and alcohol taxes, though the intensity behind these increases is somewhat less than we see for eliminating corporate loopholes and raising taxes on the wealthiest. Voters are somewhat open to raising the sales tax by one penny and expanding the services and goods it covers, though again it lacks intensity among voters across the board. Importantly, it is only a gas tax increase that proves incredibly unpopular here, just as it does in virtually every other state, and in fact, two thirds of Connecticut voters (69 percent) actually oppose raising the gas tax. Clearly, any attempt to raise the state s gas tax should be off the table. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 9 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 fax 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
SEBAC Connecticut Statewide Research Myers Research Strategic Services, LLC designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by professional interviewers. The survey reached 600 adults, 18 years or older, who indicated they are almost certain or probably will vote in the 2010 election. The survey was conducted January 21-23, 2009. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is higher and varies. 6225 Cardinal Brook Court Springfield, VA 22152 Ph. 703.451.8424 Fx. 703.451.8428 www.myersandpartners.com
State Public Service Workers Well Regarded Across the Board Q9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Connecticut public service workers 11 66 61 Public school teachers 7 76 80 Connecticut state police 7 75 74 Doctors and nurses in state health care facilities 5 74 71 Janitors 3 60 74 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mean Personal Feeling Thermometer Percent Warm Percent Cool Slide 2
State Public Service Workers Well Regarded Across the Board Q9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Connecticut public service workers 11 66 61 State park rangers 5 58 73 Professors in our state colleges and universities 9 71 70 Corrections officers 5 53 71 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mean Personal Feeling Thermometer Percent Warm Percent Cool Slide 3
State Employees Perceived to Fill Vital Role Q33 State employees perform vital and needed services that benefit us all 87 Net Difference +77 They are working for the people of Connecticut They keep everything working we need them 10 Percent Agree Percent Disagree Slide 4
Public Has No Appetite for State Employee Layoffs or Deep Budget Cuts High Premium on Maintaining Services Q.32 Now, I am going to read you several statements and I want you to tell me whether you agree or disagree with each statement. (SPLIT A) Cutting public services like health care, education and road maintenance during a time of recession further damages the economy and denies critical services to citizens at the very time they are needed most 46 84 Job layoffs, whether for public sector or private sector employees, hurt everyone and further weaken the economy 43 83 (SPLIT B) Cutting public services, like education and health care, lead to greater costs for the state further down the road 42 77 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Strongly Agree Total Agree Slide 5
Voters See New Revenue Creation as Solution to Budget Deficit Q42 I am going to read you several approaches they might be able to take in order to balance the state budget,and after I read the approaches,please tell me which approach would be your top choice for balancing the state's budget. 15 19 11 Increase taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations 54 Make large across the board cuts to all public services Layoff a large portion of public employees (Don't know/refused) Slide 6
Three Competing Approaches to Balancing the Budget Rell s Approach: Some leaders, including Governor Rell, say Connecticut must not raise taxes in this economic climate, and instead we must make deep cuts to state spending and focus government on the core services it should provide in order to balance the budget and address this shortfall. They say Connecticut is facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and raising taxes now would hurt businesses and cost us needed jobs, making our economy even worse. They say we have to solve this budget crisis with spending cuts alone. (SPLIT B) Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach: Other leaders in the state legislature, relying on Nobel Prize winning economists, say our economy has fallen into recession,and now is not the time to make drastic cuts to jobs and services which will only damage our economy further and put us deeper into recession. Rather, they say this is the time to bring about real structural change and reform to state government, while working to protect and improve public services like education, worker training and health care so we can create jobs and strengthen our economy. They propose balancing the budget by eliminating corporate tax loopholes that allow big corporations to pay less in taxes than middle-class families do, and increasing taxes on the wealthiest. (SPLIT A) Shared Sacrifices Approach: Other legislative leaders say that we cannot balance the budget with spending cuts alone as they will damage the economy further, and we have to consider a combination of spending cuts and some increases in state taxes. They say there needs to be shared sacrifices by everyone, and the state should make cuts to a variety of public services, increase income tax rates for the wealthiest, as well as close corporate tax loopholes so we can protect those state services that are most vital. Slide 7
Larger Plurality Prefer Increasing Revenue, with No Cuts to Services, to Governor s Spending Cuts Q45 Split B: Rell s Approach v Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach Q44 Split A: Rell s Approach v Shared Sacrifices Approach 46 34 Net Difference +12 42 Net Difference +5 37 Agree with Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach Agree with Rell's Approach Agree with Shared Sacrifices Approach Agree with Rell's Approach Slide 8
This is Reinforced By Populist Theme Q.32 Now, I am going to read you several statements and I want you to tell me whether you agree or disagree with each statement. The rich are getting richer while the rest of us fall further behind 48 79 Our tax code has too many loopholes that allow big corporations to avoid paying their fair share in state taxes 48 78 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Strongly Agree Total Agree Slide 9
Near Majority Strongly Favor Raising Taxes on Wealthiest in Connecticut, Starting at $150,000 Q46 (SPLIT A) Raise income taxes on the wealthiest in Connecticut, with the smallest increase for those earning $150,000 a year, slightly more for those earning $500,000 a year and the largest for those earning a million dollars a year or more. Total 46 83 Western New Haven Eastern Hartford 52 43 43 42 76 78 85 90 New York Market Hartford/New Haven Market 44 50 81 89 0 20 40 60 80 100 Strongly Favor Total Favor Slide 10
Similar Results for Incrementally Raising Taxes on Wealthiest in Connecticut, Starting at $200,000 Q47 (SPLIT B) Raise income taxes on the wealthiest in Connecticut, with the smallest increase for those earning $200,000 a year, slightly more for those earning $500,000 a year and the largest for those earning a million dollars a year or more. Total 47 78 Western New Haven Hartford Eastern 55 47 42 41 81 82 69 80 New York Market Hartford/New Haven Market 45 52 76 83 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Strongly Favor Total Favor Slide 11
Broad Majority Strongly Favor Eliminating Corporate Tax Loopholes Q52 Eliminate corporate tax loopholes, such as the loophole that allows out-of-state corporations to underreport their Connecticut earnings, and thus pay less in state taxes to Connecticut than they actually owe. Total 57 83 Self-ID Democrats Self-ID Independents Self-ID Republicans 52 60 57 81 83 85 Registered Democrats Registered Indpendents Registered Republicans 51 52 62 80 83 85 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Strongly Favor Total Favor Slide 12
Strongest Messages to Support Raising Taxes on Wealthiest and Big Corporations Q.67 Now, let me read you a series of reasons people have given to support closing the state budget deficit mostly with tax increases on wealthy individuals and businesses. For each, please tell me whether this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing. Too many middle-class families are struggling, and for too long the richest and most powerful corporations haven't paid their fair share. Our economy is in recession and these corporations are taking advantage of bailouts while the middle class gets no help. Government needs to focus on the middle class and rescuing us, not protecting rich CEOs and powerful corporations. Like the rest of the country, Connecticut faces a deep economic downturn. Raising taxes is never an appealing option, but drastic cuts to state services and large-scale layoffs will actually make our economic crisis worse and undermine any economic stimulus efforts. Raising taxes on the wealthiest and closing corporate tax loopholes is a better way to eliminate our budget deficit without damaging our economy further. If we cut services and state investments in our economy, we will only see more jobs lost, businesses close and a deeper recession. We need to make big corporations and the rich pay their fair share to balance our budget so middleclass families don't fall further behind. For too long the wealthiest and big corporations have benefited from tax breaks, while taxes for middle-class families have only gone up. Raising taxes on big corporations and the wealthiest can balance our budget without hurting middle class families who are struggling. 35 35 34 34 67 66 66 65 Very Convincing 0 20 40 60 80 Very/Somewhat Convincing Slide 13
Creating New Revenue with Tobacco and Alcohol Taxes Also an Option, As Is Sales Tax Q46 And still thinking about the six billion dollar state budget deficit, I am going to read you a number of options that state legislators and the governor could use to address the budget shortfall, and for each please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal. Raise the state tax on cigarettes and other tobacco products 38 68 Raise the state tax on alcohol 37 70 Raise the state sales tax by one penny 23 58 Raise the gas tax 10 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Strongly Favor Total Favor Slide 14
K-12 Education, Health Care for Special Populations and Child Protection all Sacrosanct Budget Items Q58 Now, I am going to read you several areas of state spending and for each one please tell me whether to close the state budget shortfall, legislators and the Governor should reduce funding for that service a lot, a little or not at all. Budget Area Total Reduce Total Not At All Difference: Reduce Not Reduce Health care services for chronically ill and elderly Nursing home care for the elderly 19 75-56 22 71-49 K through 12 education 23 72-49 Child protection and enforcement Health care services for the poor and disadvantaged Community colleges, and 4-year public colleges and universities Public safety, including prisons and state police 26 69-43 27 68-41 36 58-22 45 51-6 Slide 15
What Do You Think? 1. Surveys both report and shape public opinion. To whom is the press release appealing? (See the Web site resource, Advocacy Politics ). 2. Is releasing this survey a useful tactic in advocacy politics? Is it effective in helping to set the agenda and reframe the issues in budgetary politics? 3. Does this poll provide useful guidance to public leaders? How should decision makers look at the results of this poll? Should decision makers be concerned about how important the views are to the respondents and whether voters and taxpayers are likely to act on the opinions they express? What about the snapshot nature of the data? 4. The pollsters memorandum (p. 2) says, Importantly, this survey also provides a roadmap for how voters prefer to raise new revenue to fund critical services. Does it? 5. Is this poll legitimate, objective, and scientifically valid, and how do you know? Think about the methodology. 6. Now consider the possibility that the questions with responses that do not support the coalition s political agenda may not be released. After all, who owns the results? If polls are publicly released, should ownership dictate control? Information on sampling error is provided in reputable surveys. Should disclosure information be provided as well? Is it important to know this, and why? Further Resources Altman, Drew and Mollyann Brodie, 2002. Opinions on Public Opinion Polling, The admissions of two serial pollsters. Health Affairs, August, http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w2.276v1, accessed April 2, 2010. American Association for Public Opinion Research, http://www.aapor.org.
Asher, Herbert, 2001. Polling and the Public, What Every Citizen Should Know. 5 th ed. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press. Brodie, Mollyann, Lisa Ferraro Marmelee, April Brackett, and Drew E. Altman, 2001. The Will of the People. Public Perspective, special issue on Polling and Democracy, July/August, pp. 10 24. Chard, Richard E., 2004. The Mediating Effect of Public Opinion on Public Policy: Exploring the Realm of Health Care. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press. Gallup Poll, on most important problem at http://www.gallup.com and video clips at http://www.gallup.com/tag/video%20reports.aspx, accessed April 2, 2010. Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Web site resource, Internet Resources, Public Opinion ( ).