PS108: Public Opinion and U.S. Democracy **Last updated 1/3/17**

PS108: Public Opinion and U.S. Democracy **Last updated 1/3/17** Spring 2017 Professor: Teaching Assistant: Debbie Schildkraut Cassie Chesley Henrriquez 210 Packard Hall, 7-3492 cassie.henrriquez@tufts.edu deborah.schildkraut@tufts.edu http://as.tufts.edu/politicalscience/people/faculty/schildkraut @debbiejsr @TuftsPoliSci CLASS MEETS: F+ Block: Tu, Th: 12-1:15pm; Tisch 316. Professor office hours: Tuesdays, 1:30-3:00pm, and by appointment. Course Description: This course addresses the impact of public opinion in the United States on the political process and vice versa. Our emphasis is on the linkage between American citizens and the democratic process. We will examine what public opinion is and engage in debates about how it can be measured. Topics include the nature of attitude formation, stability and change; the role of the media in opinion-formation; the link between attitudes and behavior; group differences in opinions; how elites influence mass opinions; political inequality; polarization; the Tea Party; and the relationship between public opinion and policy outcomes. We will also discuss congressional and presidential elections. These themes will allow us to consider a broad set of concerns about the linkage between American citizens and the democratic process. In addition, you will become critical consumers of opinion data through the analysis of surveys and by learning about the polling process. Prerequisite: Any PS foundation course or first year tutorial (PS2, 4 11, 21, 41, 42, or 61). This course fulfills the Political Science Department s methodology requirement. I strongly encourage you to follow current events and to read a national newspaper, such as The New York Times or The Washington Post several times per week. I will be relying on current political issues and events for illustration, and I welcome your examples and observations in this regard. Course Readings: The following books are required reading for the course. They are on sale at the bookstore and on reserve in the library: 1. Erikson, Robert and Kent Tedin. 2014. American Public Opinion, 9 th edition. Routledge. (ET) 2. Berinsky, Adam, editor. 2015. New Directions in Public Opinion, 2 nd edition. Routledge. (NDPO) 1

3. Levendusky, Matthew. 2009. The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. There are additional required readings posted on TRUNK (T) under Resources Readings. Course website: If you are already registered for PS108, you should have access to the course website on TRUNK (http://trunk.tufts.edu). After you log in, select the link to our course across the top of the screen or under My Sites. There, you will find the syllabus, course readings, and links to websites that you may find useful as you work on assignments. The main Course Tool to use for our course is Resources. In it, you will find folders for readings, examples of past successful assignments, external links, citation guides, and more. I will use TRUNK to send emails to the class (using Mailtool ) regarding announcements and possible syllabus changes or updates, and you will be required to use TRUNK to complete assignments. TRUNK automatically uses your tufts.edu email address; if this is not your preferred email address, then you must make sure that emails sent to you through TRUNK are forwarded to the appropriate location. It is your responsibility to make sure that you receive and read class emails. Assignments and Grading: Class participation: 5% Media poll critique: 15% Exam 1: 25% Exam 2: 25% Final paper prospectus: 5% Final paper: 25% All assignments are graded out of 100 points. I take off 5 points for every day that an assignment is late. I use the chart below to convert numbers to letters: 97 100 = A+ 94 96 = A 90 93 = A- 87 89 = B+ 84 86 = B 80 83 = B- 77 79 = C+ 74 76 = C 70 73 = C- 65 70 = D Below 65 = F Important Dates: Tues, 2/7: Discussion of Media Poll Critiques Tues, 2/14: Media Poll Critique due in class Thurs, 2/16: Visit from the Career Center Tues, 2/23: MONDAY SCHEDULE: No Class Tues, 2/28: Exam 1 2

Tues, 3/28: One paragraph description of paper topic due Thurs, 4/20: Paper prospectus due: Bring 2 copies and email a copy to your group. Tues, 4/25: Exam 2 Friday, May 5: Research paper due in Packard 210 by 12pm (hardcopies only!) Content reactions: During the semester, you are to post at least five reactions to readings and/or lectures. These can be posted before or after the lecture on a given topic. These reactions can be questions you would like addressed, critiques of the readings, connections to current events, or ideas for further research. They can also be questions that came to you to during class, critiques of scholarship discussed in lecture, or responses to comments from classmates. Your diligence and thoughtfulness in posting these reactions will be factored into your class participation grade. You can find a guide to writing effective content reactions posted on TRUNK under Resources. It is one of your first reading assignments. To post a content reaction, go to the Forums tool on TRUNK. Then find the topic for the appropriate week. Then click the start a new conversation button to enter your content reaction. Media Poll Critique: Fifteen percent of your course grade is based on your critique of a media account of a recent public opinion poll. For this assignment, select an article from print journalism in the past year in which results from a public opinion poll are the main focus. You can select articles from print or online. You can choose from newspapers, magazines, journalist blogs, etc. You can also use a post from the website of a television news show (i.e., from cbsnews.com), but you should not be critiquing video (i.e. do not critique a segment from NBC Nightly News). DO NOT use a pre-election horserace poll (i.e. % intending to vote for Clinton vs. Trump); the poll should be about issues. Your critique should discuss the topic of the article and the context in which the article appeared (i.e. why would the news outlet cover this topic at this time?). Next, you should summarize the portrait of public opinion that the article conveys. Then you should assess the quality of the presentation of the results. What, if any, aspects of public opinion did the news outlet cover well? What aspects of the analysis were deficient? How, if at all, could coverage of the information be improved? How, if at all, could the poll itself have been improved? Do you think the media coverage was sufficient to allow the reader to be a critical consumer of the information? Our reading by Herbert Asher will be extremely useful as you work on this assignment. If you choose a print article, include a photocopy of the article with your critique. If you choose a webbased source, include the URL as well as a print out of the source article. If the website has links to additional information about the poll, you do not need to supply those additional printouts; it is sufficient to discuss the content of those associated files in your paper. Tips: Use subheadings; include a proper introduction and conclusion; proofread; invoke course materials in order to substantiate your critiques and suggestions. 3

Your critique should be roughly 5 7 pages (numbered, double-spaced, 1-inch margins). This assignment is due in class on February 14. Late papers will have points deducted. On February 7, we will meet in small groups to discuss your critiques. Come to class that day prepared to talk in detail about your critique. Examples of successful media poll critiques from previous semesters are available on TRUNK ( Resources Examples of Successful Papers ). Research Paper: Thirty percent of your course grade is based on your work for a research paper. The paper itself should be about 10-12 pages (numbered, double-spaced, 1-inch margins) and is worth 25% of your course grade. The prospectus for the paper is worth 5% of your course grade. For this paper, you may choose from among the three options below. 1. Write a memo to either a current elected official or to a potential candidate for office (focusing on potential Senators, governors, or presidential candidates). You memo should consist of either (a) advice about which direction to pursue on a policy area of your choice or (b) advice about how to campaign with respect to particular issues and/or groups (i.e., how to court Latino voters). For this paper, you are expected to combine information about current trends in public opinion with scholarly insights about the issues and/or groups you choose. You should explain what the relevant constituency wants, whether the politician should heed those wishes, and how best to sell his or her view to the public. Make sure you refer to course materials as well as to outside scholarly sources to explain why the public seems to have the views it does, why you think their views will or will not affect their votes, and why your advice on how to proceed should be followed. 2. Pick a topic in public opinion that you find interesting or puzzling and write a paper that reviews existing research on the topic. Explain why you chose the topic and what the current state of scholarly knowledge is. What do we know about opinions on this topic? What explains attitudes on this topic? What are the academic debates about public opinion in this arena? What do we still need to learn? Examples include: Do political campaigns matter, or are presidential elections really just determined by the state of the economy? How much does campaign spending affect public opinion during elections? How big of a problem is panel conditioning in on-line survey panels? How do gender and race interact to shape public opinion? Under what conditions are negative ads valuable? What shapes how Americans feel about Obamacare? How much do Supreme Court decisions affect public opinion? If you choose this topic, I suggest you start by reading Doing a Literature Review, by Jeffrey Knopf (posted on TRUNK, under Resources ). 3. Write a public opinion autobiography. Explain how your own political outlook does or does not conform to expectations established in public opinion research. You do not need to address everything we have covered in class; instead, pick about 3 topics we have covered (socialization, race, class, gender, the media, citizen competence, etc.). Discuss the state of scholarly research on those topics (using course materials and outside sources) and compare scholarly expectations to 4

your own opinion-formation process. If you think you deviate from the established literature (i.e. if you have a different partisan identification from your parents), discuss the potential reason(s) why. More information about this assignment will be distributed in class in early March. A one-paragraph description of your paper topic is due in class on March 28. Two copies of your prospectus (roughly 4 pages) are due in class on April 20. The prospectus should include: o A detailed description of your paper topic o An outline of the paper o A list of the sources you have consulted to date On April 20, you are also expected to email copies of your prospectus to students in your peer review group. In the last week of classes, students will meet in assigned groups to critique each other s ideas. I strongly encourage you to meet with me or our TA at least once to discuss your research paper. The paper itself is due at 12pm on Friday, May 5. Academic integrity: Assignments you submit for this course will be reported to the Office of the Dean of Student Affairs if any evidence of academic dishonesty is detected. When in doubt, cite! The Tufts Academic Integrity Policy can be found here: https://students.tufts.edu/student-affairs/student-life-policies/academicintegrity-policy. Student Accessibility Services: Tufts is committed to providing equal access and support to all qualified students through the provision of reasonable accommodations so that each student may fully participate in the Tufts experience. If you have a disability that requires accommodations, please contact the Student Accessibility Services office at accessibility@tufts.edu or 617-627-4539 to make an appointment with an SAS representative to determine appropriate accommodations. Please be aware that accommodations cannot be enacted retroactively, making timeliness a critical aspect for their provision. You can learn more about Student Accessibility Services at http://students.tufts.edu/student-accessibility-services. 5

Topics and Readings: Week 1: Th, Jan. 19: Introduction Week 2: Tu, Jan. 24: What Is Public Opinion and What Role Should It Play in Society? PS108 syllabus. CLASS SURVEY: available on TRUNK or via email invitation (T) Guide to writing effective content reactions. (T) Key, V.O. 1961. Public Opinion and American Democracy. pp. 3-17. o Introduction to a classic text in the study of public opinion. ET: pp. 1-8. NDPO: Herbst, Susan. The History and Meaning of Public Opinion. Th, Jan. 26: Measuring Opinions ET: pp. 8-15. NDPO: Hillygus, Sunshine. The Practice of Survey Research: Changes and Challenges. (T) Blumenthal, Mark and Natalie Jackson. The Margin of Error Is More Controversial Than You Think, HuffPost Pollster, 2/3/15. (T) Jackson, Natalie. Why HuffPost s Presidential Forecasts Didn t See a Donald Trump Win Coming, HuffPost Pollster, 11/10/16 Week 3: Tu, Jan. 31: Measuring Opinions, and How to Interpret Tables and Analysis ET: pp. 24-50. (T) Hoover, Kenneth and Todd Donovan. 2008. The Elements of Social Scientific Thinking. pp. 16-29; 67-69; 85-100; 106-110. (T) Wheelan, Charles. 2013. Naked Statistics. pp. 189-198. (T) Druckman, James, et al. Experiments: An Introduction to Core Concepts, in The Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science. pp. 15-20 only. 6

Th, Feb. 2: Debates about Citizen Competence NDPO: Gilens, Martin. Two-Thirds Full? Citizen Competence and Democratic Governance. (only read to p. 71) (T) Asher, Herbert. 2012. Polling and the Public. 8 th edition. pp. 137-161. Note: This reading will be extremely useful for your media poll critique. Week 4: Tu, Feb. 7: Small group discussion of Media Poll Critiques No additional reading Th, Feb. 9: Partisan Identification and Ideology NDPO: Federico, Christopher. Ideology and Public Opinion. (only read to p. 95) ET: pp. 70-88. (T) Ellis, Christopher, and James A. Stimson. 2012. Ideology in America, ch. 5: The Operational- Symbolic Disconnect. o Chapter from a book that explores symbolic vs. operational ideology (what people call themselves vs. what they actually want from government). (T) Klar, Samara and Yanna Krupnikov. 2016. Independent Politics. Cambridge University Press. o Pp. 1-11, 15-23, 38-43, 96-100, 112-114. o Sections from a book on why people act like partisans but call themselves independent. (T) SKIM: Jennings, M. Kent, Laura Stoker, and Jake Bowers. 2009. Politics across Generations: Family Transmission Reexamined. Journal of Politics 71(3): 782-799. o By skim, I mean you don t need to worry about the methodological details of this article, but you should be able to discuss the main substantive findings. 7

Week 5: Tu, Feb. 14: Opinion Polarization (T) Abramowitz, Alan. 2015. The New American Electorate: Partisan, Sorted, and Polarized, chapter in American Gridlock: The Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization, Cambridge University Press. o Opening shot in the debate about whether the American public is polarized. (T) Abrams, Samuel, and Morris Fiorina. 2015. Party Sorting: The Foundations of Polarized Politics, chapter in American Gridlock: The Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization, Cambridge University Press o Competing view on the polarization question. (T) Stein, Jeff. Most experts think American is more polarized than ever. This Stanford professor disagrees, vox.com, Nov. 1, 2016. o Link to an interview with Morris Fiorina just before the 2016 election. (T) Iyengar, Shanto, Gaurav Sood, and Yphtach Lelkes. 2012. Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization, Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405-431. o Research on the extent to which partisan attachments now divide Americans. **Media poll critique due** Th, Feb. 16: Searching for Jobs and Internships: A Visit from the Career Center Week 6: Tu, Feb. 21: Polarization vs. Sorting Levendusky, Matthew. 2009. The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. o Ch. 1: pp. 1-10; Ch. 3: pp. 38-57, 63-77; Ch. 5: entire; o Ch. 6: pp. 109-117; Ch. 7: pp. 120-131; 138-141. (T) Partisan Sort discussion guide o Come to class prepared to discuss in small groups the methods and findings in this reading. Th, Feb. 23: MONDAY SCHEDULE: No class Week 7: Tu, Feb. 28: Exam 1 8

Th, March 2: Self-Interest, Group Interest, and the White Working Class ET: pp. 184-192. (T) Bartels, Larry. 2006. What s the Matter with What s the Matter with Kansas? Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1(2): 201-226. (T) Masket, Seth. 2016. What s the Matter with Kansas? aptly describes the 2016 election but was written in 2004, Vox.com, 12/1/16. Week 8: Tu, March 7: Trump s Success: Race vs. (and?) Class (T) Cramer, Katherine J. 2016. The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. University of Chicago Press. o Pp. 1-25, 145-168. (T) Sears, David and Michael Tesler. 2010. Obama s Race. University of Chicago Press. o Pp. 11-23, 36-37. (T) Tesler, Michael. Economic anxiety isn t driving racial resentment. Racial resentment is driving economic anxiety. Washington Post. Aug. 22, 2016. o A set of preliminary analyses by Michael Tesler, author of Obama s Race. (T) Tesler, Michael. The education gap among whites this year wasn t about education. It was about race. Washington Post. Nov. 16, 2016. (T) Junn, Jane. Hiding in Plain Sight: White Women Voting Republican. Politics of Color, Nov. 13. 2016. o More preliminary analyses of the role of race in the 2016 election. Thu, March 9: Groups: Race, Ethnicity, Gender NDPO: Czaja, Erica, et al. Race and the Group Bases of Public Opinion. (only read to p. 113) ET: SKIM pp. 193-198; 206-216. (T) Hajnal, Zoltan and Taeku Lee. 2011. Why Americans Don t Join the Party. pp. 103-117; 130-135. (T) Barreto, Matt and Francisco Pedraza. 2009. The renewal and persistence of group identification in American politics. Electoral Studies. 28: 595-605. (T) Hayes, Danny and Jennifer Lawless. 2015. A Non-Gendered Lens? Media, Voters, and Female Candidates in Contemporary Congressional Elections. Perspectives on Politics 13(1): 95-118. Week 9: Tu, March 14 Groups, continued, and Finding Sources in Political Science No additional reading 9

Thu, March 16: Small group discussion of Why do Asian Americans Identify as Democrats? (T) Kuo, Alexander, Neil Malhotra, and Cecilia Hyunjung Mo. 2014. Why Do Asian Americans Identify as Democrats? Testing Theories of Social Exclusion and Intergroup Solidarity. Unpublished manuscript. (T) Kuo/Malhotra/Mo discussion guide o Come to class prepared to discuss in small groups the methods and findings in this reading. Week 10: SPRING BREAK: No classes Week 11: Tu, March 28: The Meaning and Impact of the Tea Party (T) Parker, Christopher, and Matt Barreto. 2013. Change They Can t Believe In: The Tea Party and Reactionary Politics in America. pp. 1-11; 20-52; 153-189; 228-240. (T) Yates, Elizabeth. 2016. How the tea party learned to love Donald Trump, Washington Post, Dec. 1, 2016. **1 paragraph description of paper topic due in class today** Th, March 30: Media: News and Framing ET: pp. 219-226; 233-239. (T) Prior, Markus. 2005. News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 49(3): 577-592. (only read to p. 584) (T) SKIM: Merolla, Jennifer, S. Karthick Ramakrishnan, and Chris Haynes. 2013. Illegal, Undocumented, or Unauthorized : Equivalency Frames, Issue Frames, and Public Opinion on Immigration, Perspectives on Politics 11(3): 789-807. (T) SKIM: Towner, Terri, and David Dulio. 2015. Technology Takeover? Campaign Learning during the 2012 Presidential Election, in Presidential Campaigning and Social Media, Oxford University Press. Week 12: Tu, April 4: Media: Campaigning ET: pp. 244-247. (T) Brooks, Deborah Jordan. 2010. A Negativity Gap? Voter Gender, Attack Politics, and Participation in American Elections Politics & Gender 6: 319-341. 10

Th, April 6: Do Campaigns Matter? NDPO: Sides, John and Jake Haselswerdt. Campaigns and Elections. ET: pp. 250-263; 267-276. (T) Abramowitz, Alan. 2016. Will Time for Change mean Time for Trump? PS: Political Science and Politics 49(4): 659-660. Week 13: Tu, April 11: Congressional Campaigns (T) Jacobson, Gary. 2015. The Politics of Congressional Elections. pp. 150-163, 179-200, 215-219. o Excerpt from a book about Congressional elections, focusing on individual-level analysis. Th, April 13: Values, Tolerance, and Democratic Stability ET: pp. 155-164; 167-175. (T) Gibson, James. 2008. Intolerance and Political Repression in the United States: A Half Century after McCarthyism. American Journal of Political Science 52(2): 96-108. Week 14: Tu, April 18: Elite and Mass Linkages ET: pp. 278-286; 291-297; 301-304; 307-314. NDPO: Campbell, Andrea and Elizabeth Rigby. Public Opinion and Public Policy. Th, April 20: Make up day/review session No additional reading **Paper prospectus due in class today. Bring 2 copies and email a copy to your group!** Week 15: Tu, April 25: Exam 2 Th, April 27: Small group critiques of paper prospectus and course evaluations Prospectuses from 4 classmates. FRIDAY, May 5: Research paper due in Packard 210 by 12pm (hardcopies only!) 11