International Journal of KOREAN STUDIES Volume XIV, Number 1 Spring/Summer 2010
ISSN 1091-2932 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES Volume XIV, Number 1 (Spring/Summer 2010) EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Hugo Wheegook Kim, East-West Research Institute MANAGING EDITOR Jack L. Hammersmith, West Virginia University Editorial Assistant: Donna MacIsaac Kwang Soo Cheong, Johns Hopkins Univ. Uk Heo, University of Wisconsin- Milw Nam-Sung Huh, Korea National Defense Univ. Young Whan Kihl, Iowa State University Young-Key Kim-Renaud, George Wash. U. Hong Nack Kim, West Virginia University Ilpyong J. Kim, University of Connecticut Jinill Kim, Federal Reserve System Yong-Ho Choe, University of Hawaii Bruce Cumings, University of Chicago Wonmo Dong, University of Washington Carter Eckert, Harvard University Hak-joon Kim, The Dong-A Ilbo Han Kyo Kim, University of Cincinnati Jae-Chang Kim, Korea-U.S. Security Studies Youn-Suk Kim, Kean University Chae-Jin Lee, Claremont-McKenna College Marcus Noland, Inst. for Intl. Economics Edward A. Olsen, Naval Post Grad. School EDITORS Samuel S. Kim, Columbia University Haeduck Lee, The World Bank Jin Young Park, American University Yoon-shik Park, George Wash. University Hang Yul Rhee, Shepherd University Hong Terence J. Roehrig, U.S. Naval War College Dennis Roy, East-West Center (Honolulu) Jai P. Ryu, Loyola College EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Soon Paik, U.S. Department of Labor Jong O. Ra, Hollins U. and Virginia Jae Kap Ryoo, Kyonggi University Eui-Hang Shin, University of South Carol David I. Steinberg, Georgetown University Robert G. Sutter, Georgetown University William J. Taylor, Jr., CSIS & Georgetown Richard W. Wilson, Rutgers University Yong Soon Yim, Sungkyunkwan Univ Jang H. Yoo, Ehwa Women s University Young Kwan Yoon, Seoul Natl. University EDITORIAL INFORMATION Contributors should submit one copy of the paper that is 20-35 pages in length, doublespaced, 12 point font with one-inch margins and endnotes accompanied by an electronic file compatible with the current version of MS Word. Unpublished original papers must provide full documentation in conformance with the standards in the current edition of the Chicago Manual of Style. Papers are to be submitted to Dr. Hugo W. Kim, Editor-in- Chief, International Journal of Korean Studies, 14641 Lee Highway, Suite 208, Centreville, VA 20121-5822, U.S.A. Contact: Tel (703) 266-3245, Fax (703) 266-3865, and E-mail at hugo33kim@vacoxmail.com. The International Journal of Korean Studies is indexed and abstracted in the references of major social sciences, and all of its articles are accessible through the Columbia International Affairs Online by the Columbia University Press and Asia-Studies Online. ii
ISSN 1091-2932 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES Volume XIV, Number 1 Spring/Summer 2010 Contents China, the Great Powers, and the Koreas: Beyond the Beijing Olympics Andrew Scobell 1 China and North Korea after the Cold War: Wariness, Caution, and Balance Robert Sutter 19 U.S. Policies Toward North Korea Under the Obama Government Edward A. Olsen 35 Unraveling of U.S.-DPRK Nuclear Accord? A Post-Mortem Analysis of the Six-Party Talks (SPT) Process Young Whan Kihl 63 ROK-U.S. Maritime Cooperation: A Growing Dimension of the Alliance Terence Roehrig 91 Promoting Long-Term Economic Growth: America and East Asia Working Together Doug Bandow 125 The International Journal of Korean Studies is copyrighted under U.S. law. 2010 International Council on Korean Studies iii
ISSN 1091-2932 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES The International Journal of Korean Studies (IJKS) is published twice a year jointly by the International Council on Korean Studies (ICKS) and the Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies (COKUSS). Annual Subscription Rates: $35 for individual subscriptions, and $60 for institutional and international subscriptions. All the members of ICKS are entitled to receive the journal automatically, and all issues of IJKS are posted on the ICKS website at http://www.icks.org/publication/index.html. Contact: International Council on Korean Studies (ICKS) 14641 Lee Highway, Suite 208, Centreville, VA 20121-5822, U.S.A. Tel (703) 266-3245, Fax (703) 266-3865, E-mail at hugo33kim@vacoxmail.com ICKS Website Home: http://www.icks.org INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON KOREAN STUDIES (ICKS) ICKS is a non-profit and non-partisan organization dedicated to the advancement of Korean studies and related academic and professional activities in the United States as well as abroad through conferences, publications, and other relevant activities. EXECUTIVE BOARD President: Soon Paik Vice Presidents: Jae O. Kang and Richard T. Shin Secretary General: Kwang Soo Cheong, Treasurer: Won Eog Kim IJKS Editor-in-Chief: Hugo Wheegook Kim BOARD OF DIRECTORS Chairman: Hong Nack Kim, Vice Chairman: Lai-Sung Kim Members: Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Kwang Soo Cheong, Walter Choi, Young Back Choi, Uk Heo, Soon Kyung Hong, Yong Hwangbo, Dong-Keun Jeong, Pilju Kim Joo, Jae O. Kang, Young Whan Kihl, Hugo Wheegook Kim, Ilpyong J. Kim, Kinney H. Kim, Se Ung Kim, Ung Soo Kim, Youn-Suk Kim, Haeduck Lee, Woong B. Lee, Soon Paik, Yoon-shik Park, Jong O. Ra, Hang Yul Rhee, Steve Y. Rhee, Terence J. Roehrig, Jai P. Ryu, Eui Hang Shin, Richard T. Shin Auditors: Jaewoo Lee and Seon-Young Ahn COUNCIL ON KOREA-U.S. SECURITY STUDIES (COKUSS) The Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies was established in 1984 as a not-for-profit organization by a group of retired military officers, diplomats, and scholars from the United States and Korea. The Council aims to promote studies on political, economic, and military relations between two countries by exchanges of opinions and ideas among theorists and practitioners through conferences and publications. EXECUTIVE BOARD Co-Chairmen: John H. Tilelli, Jr. and Jae-Chang Kim Directors: Jae-Kap Ryoo, Hugo Wheegook Kim, and Nam-Sung Huh BOARD OF DIRECTORS Co-Chairmen: John H. Tilelli, Jr. and Jae-Chang Kim Members: Jong-Chun Baek, Nam-Sung Huh, Kwang-On Hyun, Il Hwa Jung, Hee-Sang Kim, Yong- Ok Park, Jae-Kap Ryoo, Yong Soon Yim, Raymond P. Ayres, Jr., Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Hugo Wheegook Kim, Patrick M. Morgan Auditors: Taewoo Kim and Dae-Sung Song iv
CONTRIBUTORS Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. He also is the Robert A. Taft Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and the Cobden Fellow in International Economics at the Institute for Policy Innovation. He served as a Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and as a Senior Policy Analyst in the 1980 Reagan for President Campaign. Previously a columnist for antiwar.com, a nationally syndicated columnist with Copley News Service, and editor of the monthly political magazine Inquiry, he has been widely published in such periodicals as Time, Newsweek, Fortune, Christianity Today, Foreign Policy, Harper s, National Interest, National Review, New Republic, Orbis, and World, as well as leading newspapers including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post. He currently is a regular contributor to the Huffington Post, National Interest online, and American Spectator online. Bandow has written and edited several books, including Foreign Follies: America s New Global Empire (Xulon Press), The Korean Conundrum: America s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea (Palgrave/Macmillan, coauthor), Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World (Cato), Perpetuating Poverty: The World Bank, the IMF, and the Developing World (Cato, coeditor), and The Politics of Plunder: Misgovernment in Washington (Transaction). He has also appeared on numerous radio and television programs, including ABC Nightly News, American Interests, CBS Evening News, CNN Crossfire, CNN Larry King Live, Good Morning America, Nightline, and the Oprah Winfrey Show. He received his B.S. in Economics from Florida State University in 1976 and his J.D. from Stanford University in 1979. Young Whan Kihl is a professor of Political Science, Emeritus, at Iowa State University, Ames. He is a recipient of the 2005 Regent Award for Faculty Excellence from the State of Iowa and the 2006 Global Korea Award from Michigan State University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, 2009-10, and was also a visiting scholar at Georgetown University Asian Studies Program, 2008-09. He was a visiting professor at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, 1997, at the Sejong Institute, in 1998, and also at Ehwa Womans; University Graduate School of International Studies, 1998-99, the latter as a Fulbright Professor. He has written numerous books on Korean politics, both North and South, and was a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. Included in the list of his recent books are: North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival, 2006 (coeditor) and Transforming Korean Politics: Democracy, Reform, and Culture, 2005. Currently, he is a member of v
the International Council on Korea Studies board of directors, and served as an editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Korean Studies from 2005 to 2008. Edward A. Olsen is Professor Emeritus of National Security Affairs & Asian Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. He was on the NPS faculty from 1980 to 2008. Prior to that (1975-80) he was a political analyst on Japan and Korea at the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), Office of East Asian Affairs. He has a BA in History (UCLA, 1968), MA in East Asian Studies (UC Berkeley, 1970), Certificate in Japanese language (Stanford University Inter-University Center in Tokyo, 1969-70), and PhD in International Studies (The American University, School of International Service, 1974). He has numerous publications in Asian politics, security, and US foreign/defense policy. He is the author of 9 books, 7 monographs, and was an editor for 4 books. His most recent books are: U.S. National Defense for the Twenty First Century; The Grand Exit Strategy (Frank Cass/Taylor & Francis, 2002), Toward Normalizing U.S.-Korea Relations: In Due Course? (Lynne Rienner, 2002), and Korea: A Nation Divided (Praeger Security International, 2005). The Rienner book also was published in Korean as Hanmi kwangae ui sae jipyung [New Horizons of US-Korea Relations] (Ingan Sarang, 2003). His latest monograph is Homeland Security: Learning from Japan (The Independent Institute, 2005). He has authored 72 book chapters, 148 journal articles, and 95 Op-Ed columns in major U.S. and Asian media. He currently is working on another book: Reforming U.S. Foreign Policy (due in 2010). Terence J. Roehrig is an Associate Professor in the National Security Decision Making Department, at the U.S. Naval War College. He is a coauthor of a forthcoming book entitled South Korea since 1980: Democratization, Economic Struggle, and Nuclear Crisis (Cambridge University Press) with Uk Heo. In addition, he is the author of two books, From Deterrence to Engagement: The U.S. Defense Commitment to South Korea (Lexington Books, 2006) and The Prosecution of Former Military Leaders in Newly Democratic Nations: The Cases of Argentina, Greece, and South Korea (McFarland Publishers, 2002), and a monograph The Korean Dispute over the Northern Limit Line: Security, Economics, or International Law, and is a coeditor of Korean Security in a Changing East Asia (Praeger, 2007). Professor Roehrig has published articles and book chapters on North Korea s nuclear weapons program, Korean and East Asian security issues, deterrence theory, the U.S.-South Korea alliance, human rights, and transitional justice. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an vi
MA from Marquette University, and is a past President of the Association of Korean Political Studies. Andrew C. Scobell is Associate Professor of International Affairs at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and Director of the China Certificate Program at Texas A&M University located in College Station, Texas. From August 1999 until August 2007, he was Associate Research Professor in the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College both located in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. Scobell earned a Ph.D in political science from Columbia University. He is the author of China s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March (Cambridge University Press, 2003), China s Search for Security (Columbia University Press, forthcoming, 2010) [with Andrew J. Nathan], 14 monographs and reports, more than 25 journal articles and 20 book chapters. He has also edited or co-edited a dozen volumes on various aspects of security in the Asia-Pacific region. Scobell was born and raised in Hong Kong and regularly makes research trips to the region. Robert G. Sutter: Dr. Sutter has been Visiting Professor of Asian Studies at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, since 2001. Prior to taking this full-time position, Sutter specialized in Asian and Pacific Affairs and US foreign policy in a US government career of 33 years involving the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of State, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was for many years the Senior Specialist and Director of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division of the Congressional Research Service. He also was the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US Government s National Intelligence Council, and the China Division Director at the Department of State s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. A Ph.D. graduate in History and East Asian Languages from Harvard University, Sutter taught part-time for over thirty years at Georgetown, George Washington, Johns Hopkins Universities, and the University of Virginia. He has published 17 books, over 100 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary East Asian and Pacific countries and their relations with the United States. His most recent book is The United States in Asia (Rowman and Littlefield 2008). vii