Geopolitical Futures in the Press 2017 September Previous Geopolitical Futures Press Request an interview Sept. 30, 2017 Real Clear World - A Fight Spain Can t Win The autonomous Spanish community of Catalonia plans to hold an independence referendum on Oct. 1. The Spanish government intends to prevent that referendum from taking place by any means necessary. Ironically, Spain's crackdown, while predictable, exacerbates the very threat Spain is trying to subdue. - Jacob L. Shapiro Sept. 30, 2017 ValueWalk - The Equifax Hack Must Be A Wake-Up Call To Redefine Digital Security The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. - George Sept. 30, 2017 Wszystko Co Najważniejsze - Co dzieje się w Polsce? Sept. 28, 2017 Business Insider - GEORGE FRIEDMAN: The Equifax hack must be a wake-up call to redefine digital security The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. - George Sept. 27, 2017 Real Clear World - Poland Challenges the European Identity Poland elected a government that pledged to change the direction in which the country was moving. The new government was of the right. It sought to change the management of the state- 1 / 7
owned media and reform (in its terms) the judiciary. So far this is politics as usual. - George Sept. 27, 2017 The Market Oracle - The Equifax Hack Must Be A Wake-Up Call To Redefine Digital Security Sept. 27, 2017 Newsmax - The Equifax Hack Must Be a Wake-Up Call to Redefine Digital Security The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. - George Sept. 27, 2017 Emerging Europe - POLAND CHALLENGES THE EUROPEAN IDENTITY Poland elected a government that pledged to change the direction in which the country was moving. The new government was of the right. It opposed the policies and institutional stance of the previous, left-of-centre government. - George Sept. 26, 2017 Real Clear World - The Looming Confrontation in German Mainstream Politics Germans headed to the polls over the weekend in an election that saw declining support for establishment parties and rising popularity of a formerly fringe nationalist party. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union experienced its worst performance since the end of World War II. - Antonia Colibasanu Sept. 25, 2017 ValueWalk - Why Turkey Can t Stay Out Of Syria Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. - Jacob L. Shapiro Sept. 25, 2017 The Market Oracle - Here s Why Turkey Can t Stay Out Of Syria Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. - Jacob L. Shapiro 2 / 7
Sept. 25, 2017 Business Insider - South Korea throws a wrench into the US's war plans Sept. 24, 2017 ValueWalk - Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves. And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles. Sept. 23, 2017 ValueWalk - Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack From South Korea s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. - George Sept. 22, 2017 Newsmax - South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans From South Korea s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. - George Sept. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle - South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans Sept. 22, 2017 Equities - How Effective is US Missile Defense Against a North Korean Attack Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. - George 3 / 7
Sept. 21, 2017 The Market Oracle - Why US Missile Defense Won t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. - George Sept. 20, 2017 Business Insider - Here s why US missile defense probably won't protect us from a North Korea attack Ballistic missile defense (BMD) seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time and some have even intercepted their targets the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute. - George Sept. 20, 2017 Real Clear World - The Constraints That Define Donald Trump One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. - George Sept. 20, 2017 Huffington Post - The Constraints That Define Donald Trump One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. - George Sept. 19, 2017 Real Clear World - The U.S. Faces Unsavory Choices in the Korean Peninsula In its attempt to deal with the threat from Pyongyang, the U.S. is facing another obstacle: South Korea. - George Sept. 15, 2017 MacroGeo - In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for control over Cuba Beyond the obvious shared border, the U.S.-Mexico rivalry is expressed most notably in the Caribbean, particularly in Cuba, where Washington and Mexico City have competing strategic 4 / 7
interests. We are currently in a relative lull regarding this bilateral competition in the Caribbean, but in the decades ahead there is potential for it to resume. - Allison Fedirka Sept. 14, 2017 MacroGeo - In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada s founders understood this. - George Sept. 14, 2017 CIRSD Horizons Magazine - The Limits of the Trump Doctrine Observers too readily dismiss what Trump says as naiveté at best, and the ravings of a madman at worst. Too often such characterizations obscure the fact that he has a real and coherent strategic vision. - George and Jacob L. Shapiro Sept. 13, 2017 Huffington Post - In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada s founders understood this. - George Sept. 12, 2017 Real Clear World - Hungary Pulls Away From the Kremlin As tensions between the U.S. and Russia heat up, the concept of the Intermarium alliance among Eastern European states to block Russia s expansion westward is gaining steam. - Antonia Colibasanu Sept. 10, 2017 Tygodnik Wprost - American Chess According to GPF's Jacob L. Shapiro, U.S. President Trump has little room to maneuver with regards to North Korea. Sept. 8, 2017 Equities - Harvey s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices It won t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can t be ruled out. - George Sept. 7, 2017 The Market Oracle - Hurricane Harvey s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil 5 / 7
Prices It won t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can t be ruled out. - George Sept. 7, 2017 Real Clear World - Revisiting Europe, the Heroic Delusion The European Union is what political philosopher Leo Strauss might have called a heroic delusion. It is a noble dream, a dream that the only thing necessary for peace in Europe is shared prosperity. And for a time, the EU was living the dream. - Jacob L. Shapiro Sept. 7, 2017 Business Insider - Hurricane Harvey might raise oil prices but only temporarily If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast s refined product, according to the EIA US consumers would not only have to pay more at the pump, but US policymakers would have to deal with Russia, which would greatly benefit from even a momentary spike in prices. - George Sept. 6, 2017 Fortune - Why Killing Kim Jong-un Won t Solve Anything Assassinating North Korean leader Kim Jong-un isn t the answer. North Korea s regime is not one man. Cut the head off of this snake and it will reveal itself to be a hydra. - Jacob L. Shapiro Sept. 6, 2017 Newsmax - Harvey's Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast s refined product, according to the EIA US consumers would not only have to pay more at the pump, but US policymakers would have to deal with Russia, which would greatly benefit from even a momentary spike in prices. 6 / 7
Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) Geopolitical Futures Sept. 4, 2017 Business Insider - The demise of Libor is part of a massive global trend that many overlook Sept. 4, 2017 Real Clear World - The Hajj: An Expression of Saudi Power The hajj is more than a religious pilgrimage; it's an expression of Saudi power. - Kamran Bokhari Previous Geopolitical Futures Press Request an interview 7 / 7