October 18, 2016 National Press Club Washington, D.C. Arturo Vargas Executive Director, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Voter Impact: 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections Latino vote grows from 5.9 million in 2000 to 7.6 million in 2004. Latino support for President George W. Bush (R) in Florida helps him garner Electoral College votes needed for victory. Exit polls suggest that President Bush received 44% of Latino vote in 2004.
Latino in 2008 Latino Voter Impact in 2008 GOP Hispanic voters deliver critical win to Senator McCain in Florida. Democratic Latino voters sustained Hillary Clinton s primary campaign. Latinos help flip Electoral College votes to Obama in Colorado, Florida, and New Mexico; and have impact in states such as Virginia.
Latino Voter Impact in 2008 Unprecedented Latino turnout of 9.7 million. A 28% increase over 2004.
Latino Voter Impact in 2012 Approximately 11.2 million Latinos voted in the 2012 election, comprising 8.4% of the nation s electorate. This was a 15% increase from the 2008 election. The Latino vote again provides the margin of victory in key contests at all levels of government, including the battleground states of Colorado, Florida and Nevada.
NALEO Educational Fund projects 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in 2016
Current Landscape for Latino Participation Presidential Elections
NALEO EDUCATIONAL FUND ESTIMATE At least 16.2 million Latinos are registered to vote for Election 2016
NALEO EDUCATIONAL FUND PROJECTIONS 13.1 million Latinos will vote in Election 2016 This represents a 35% increase in turnout since Election 2008, the last Presidential contest involving two non-incumbents
Projected Latino Vote for Election 2016 State Projected Vote Increase from November 2012 Arizona 433,000 8.3% California 3,839,000 21.6% Colorado 277,500 7.1% Florida 1,673,500 19.6% Illinois 302,000 2.4% Nevada 194,000 23.6% New Jersey 453,000 14.7% New Mexico 320,000 4.6% New York 955,500 14.4% Texas 2,088,500 10.5%
Factors Affecting Latino Participation in Election 2016
Native-Born and Naturalized Latino Voter Turnout Presidential Elections
May 11, 2016
States Which Enacted or Implemented Unfair Voting Policies After Election 2012 Restrictions on Voter Registration Restrictive Voter ID Laws Reduced In-Person Voting Periods Restrictions on Absentee Voting by Mail Other Heightened Voting Qualifications AL, IN, KS, MT, NM, NC, VA, WI AL, IN, MS, NC, ND, TN, TX, VA, WI IN, NE, NC, OH, TN, WI AZ, AR, NJ, OH, TX, UT KY, NC, OH
By the Numbers: Restrictive Voting Changes
Latino Voters Still at Risk After Major Court Decisions Court decisions in North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin have eased or invalidated restrictive voter requirements for Election 2016. However, not all localities are complying with orders; many Latinos still cannot obtain the documents needed to vote.
Voter Engagement and Protection NALEO Educational Fund s year-round tollfree bilingual hotline 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (1-888- 839-8682) provides Latino voters with vital information on every aspect of the electoral process including: How to register to vote; State voter ID requirements; and Election Day polling place locations.
Lack of Resources for Non-Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters Funding for Election 2016 is less than previous election cycles Funding concentrated in battleground states, which ignores large segments of Latino electorate Over half of Latino voting-age citizens (53%) live in California, New York or Texas
Latino Perspectives on Election 2016
Key Latino Candidates in Election 2016
Latinos in Presidential Contest: U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Latinos in Key U.S. Senate Contests California: U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) Florida: U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R) Nevada: Former State Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
New Latinos Likely to Join U.S. House CA-24 Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal (D) CA-46 Former State Senator Lou Correa (D) FL-9 State Senator Darren Soto (D) NY-13 State Senator Adriano Espaillat (D) TX-15 Attorney Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Latinos in Highly Competitive Congressional Contests CA-21 Attorney Emilio Huerta (D) CA-44 Former Hermosa Beach City Councilmember Nanette Barragan (D) FL-26 Incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) Former U.S. Rep. Joseph Garcia (D) NV-4 State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D) TX-23 Former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D)
Potential Latino Gains in Congress Current Latino Members of House of Representatives 29 Incumbents running or likely to be replaced by a Latino Non-incumbents who are strong competitors for seats not held by Latinos Projection of Latinos in House after Election 2016 29 +7 36
Latinos in Key Statewide Contests New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro (D) Delaware Insurance Commissioner Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza (D) Illinois Comptroller State Representative Christina Hale (D) Indiana Lt. Governor Former Lake County Judge Lorenzo Arredondo (D) Indiana Attorney General State Representative Nora Espinoza (R) New Mexico Secretary of State
Net Gains in State Senates State Number of Latinos Currently in State Senate Latinos running in November 2016 DEM GOP DEM GOP Potential Net Gain Potential Number of Latinos After Election AZ 5 0 9 1 3 8 FL 1 3 5 5 1 5 IL 4 0 5 0 1 5 WV 0 0 0 1 1 1 WY 1 0 3 0 1 2
Net Gains in State Senates State Number of Latinos Currently in State Senate Latinos running in November 2016 DEM GOP DEM GOP Potential Net Gain/Loss Potential Number of Latinos After Election National 64 9 68 18 7 80
Net Gains in State Lower Houses State Number of Latinos Currently in State Lower House Latinos running in November 2016 DEM GOP DEM GOP Potential Net Gain Potential Number of Latinos After Election AZ 12 3 18 4 1 16 AR 0 0 1 0 1 1 CA 16 2 30 5 3 21 CO 5 1 6 4 2 8 CT 11 1 12 1 1 13 FL 4 13 14 16 2 19 GA 1 1 3 1 1 3 MA 5 0 6 0 1 6 OK 0 1 0 2 1 2 RI 4 0 5 0 1 5 TX 29 6 39 9 1 36 UT 3 0 5 0 1 4 WV 0 1 0 2 1 2
Net Losses in State Lower Houses State Number of Latinos Currently in State Lower House Latinos running in November 2016 Potential Net Loss Potential Number of Latinos After Election DEM GOP DEM GOP IL 8 1 7 1-1 8 KS 4 2 4 0-2 4 MI 4 2 5 2-1 5 NH 0 2 0 1-1 1 NY 15 2 16 6-1 16
Total National Net Gains in State Lower Houses Number of Latinos Currently in State Lower House Latinos running in November 2016 Potential Net Gain Potential Number of Latinos After Election DEM GOP DEM GOP National 175 59 227 77 11 245
Latino Voter Impact 2016 Gubernatorial Contests State Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Latino Share of Registered Voters Margin of Victory in Last Contest IN Eric Holcomb John Gregg 2% 2% NC Pat McCrory (Inc.) Roy Cooper 2% 12%
Latino Voter Impact 2016 U.S. Senate Contests State Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Latino Share of Registered Voters Margin of Victory in Last Contest AZ John McCain (Inc.) Ann Kirkpatrick 18% 24% CA N/A Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez 25% 10% FL Marco Rubio (Inc.) Patrick Murphy 16% 19% IL Mark Kirk (Inc.) Tammy Duckworth 9% 2% IN Todd Young Evan Bayh 2% 15% NC Richard Burr (Inc.) Deborah Ross 2% 12% NV Joe Heck Catherine Cortez Masto 15% 5% OH Rob Portman (Inc.) Ted Strickland 1% 18% PA Pat Toomey (Inc.) Kate McGinty 3% 2% WI Ron Johnson (Inc.) Russ Feingold 2% 5%
Latino Voter Impact 2016 U.S. House Contests District Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Latino Share of Registered Voters Margin of Victory in Last Contest AZ-01 Paul Babeu Tom O Halleran 13% 6% CA-10 Jeff Denham (Inc.) Michael Eggman 29% 12% CA-21 David Valadao (Inc.) Emilio Huerta 60% 16% CA-25 Steve Knight (Inc.) Bryan Caforio 25% 6% CO-06 Mike Coffman (Inc.) Morgan Carroll 9% 9% FL-07 John Mica (Inc.) Stephanie Murphy 18% 32% FL-18 Brian Mast Randy Perkins 8% 20% FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (Inc.) Joe Garcia 62% 2% IL-10 Robert Dold (Inc.) Brad Schneider 11% 2% NV-03 Danny Tarkanian Jacky Rosen 11% 25% NV-04 Cresent Hardy (Inc.) Ruben Kihuen 17% 3% TX-23 Will Hurd (Inc.) Pete Gallego 61% 2%
Thank you. Arturo Vargas Executive Director avargas@naleo.org Twitter: @ArturoNALEO www.naleo.org