Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles January 3, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Stocks & Politics 1 First & Second Terms 2 Presidential Cycles 3-4 S&P 00 Index & P/E Misc. 6-7 January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
3004 4 04 4 Figure 1. FDR Truman EisenhowerKennedy Johnson Stocks & Politics Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama 3004 4 04 4 04 S&P 00 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS (ratio scale) 04 4 28.6 118.7 78.7 3. 26.3 2.9 3.0-31.6 140.3 40 42 44 4 6 8 62 64 66 72 76 78 80 84 86 88 94 96 98 02 04 06 12 14 30 32 34 36 38 46 48 0 2 60 68 70 74 82 90 92 00 08 16 18 22 4 * End-of-month daily data through 8/31/16. Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Data above timeline are percentage changes in S&P 00 for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 280 240 0 160 1 80 Figure 2. S&P 00 INDEX* & MAJORITY CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES IN BOTH HOUSES BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS (ratio scale) 280 240 0 160 1 80 40 40 1.2-0.7 74.8 3.4 277.3 78.4 89.6 187. -33.4 61.2-11.3 63.7.4 44 46 48 0 2 4 66 68 82 84 90 92 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 12 14 16 40 42 6 8 60 62 64 70 72 74 76 78 80 86 88 94 18 * End-of-month daily data through 8/31/16. Note: Shaded areas represent periods where one party holds both Houses regardless of who was in the White House. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Page 1 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
3004 4 04 4 Figure 3. Roosevelt Eisenhower Truman First & Second Terms Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama 3004 4 04 4 04 S&P 00 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL FIRST TERMS (ratio scale) 04 4 149.3 74.8 7.6 4.8 13.7 26.3 23.2 6.9 70.0-8.2 7.9 32 34 36 48 0 2 4 6 64 66 70 72 78 80 82 84 90 92 94 96 02 04 12 30 38 40 42 44 46 8 60 62 68 74 76 86 88 98 00 06 08 14 16 18 22 4 * End-of-month daily data through 8/31/16. Note: Shaded areas represent first term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. 304 3004 4 04 4 04 Figure 4. Roosevelt Eisenhower Nixon Reagan Clinton Bush II Obama S&P 00 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL SECOND TERMS (ratio scale) 304 3004 4 04 4 04 4-38.4 24. -9.0 66.1 78.2-2. 2.2 36 38 40 8 60 74 76 86 88 98 00 04 06 08 14 16 30 32 34 42 44 46 48 0 2 4 6 62 64 66 68 70 72 78 80 82 84 90 92 94 96 02 12 18 22 4 * End-of-month daily data through 8/31/16. Note: Shaded areas represent second term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Page 2 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
1 Figure. Presidential Cycles S&P 00 INDEX* & FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average =.2%, ratio scale) 1 3-11.9 46.6-38.6-17.9 30.7.3-6.6-14.3 23.1 9.1-11.4-17.4-11. -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0-13.0 3.0 23. 29.6 2 30 3 40 4 0 60 6 70 7 80 8 90 9 00 0 1 2 3 * End-of-month daily data through 12/31/16. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. 1 Figure 6. S&P 00 INDEX* & SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average = 4.8%, ratio scale) 1 3-28. -.9 2.2 12.4-11.9 21.8 4.0 38.1-11.8-13.1-0.1-29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6-6.6-1. 26.7-23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4 2 30 3 40 4 0 60 6 70 7 80 8 90 9 00 0 1 2 3 * End-of-month daily data through 12/31/16. Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price data Page 3 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
1 Figure 7. Presidential Cycles S&P 00 INDEX* & THIRD YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average = 12.8%, ratio scale) 1 3-47.1 41.4 -. 19.4 0.0 16. 26.4 8. 18.9.1.8 31.6 12.3 17.3 2.0 26.3 34.1 19. 26.4 3. 0.0-0.7 30 3 40 4 0 60 6 70 7 80 8 90 9 00 0 1 2 2 3 * End-of-month daily data through 12/31/16. Note: Shaded areas are the third years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the third year using daily price data. 1 Figure 8. S&P 00 INDEX* & FOURTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average =.7%, ratio scale) 1 3-1.1 27.9-1.3 13.8-0.7 11.8 2.6-3.0 13.0 7.7 1.8 19.1 2.8 1.4 12.4 4..3 -.1 9.0-38. 13.4 9. 30 3 40 4 0 60 6 70 7 80 8 90 9 00 0 1 2 2 3 * End-of-month daily data through 12/31/16. Note: Shaded areas are the fourth years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the fourth year using daily data. Page 4 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
S&P 00 Index & P/E 280 240 0 160 Figure 9. Kennedy Johnson (+69.6) Nixon Ford (+1.3) Carter (+27.9) Reagan Bush I (+229.7) Clinton (+9.9) Bush II (-40.0) Obama (+140.3) 1/2 280 240 0 160 1 1 80 40 S&P 00 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS PARTIES (ratio scale) 80 40 0 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 12 14 16 18 0 * End-of-month daily data through August 31, 16. Note: Shaded areas represent periods where one party holds the presidency. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Numbers in parenthesis show S&P 00 increase or decrease during each president. 28 27 26 2 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 1 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 Figure. S&P 00 FORWARD P/E RATIO* Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump Average = 13.8 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 8 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 28 27 26 2 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 1 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 * Average monthly S&P 00 stock price index divided by S&P 00 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
1 Figure 11. Misc. S&P 00 INDEX* & FIRST YEAR OF FIRST PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average = 6.4%, ratio scale) 1 3-11.9 46.6.3-6.6 23.1 9.1-11.4-11. -9.7 27.3 7.1-13.0 23. 30 3 0 60 6 70 7 80 90 00 2 40 4 8 9 0 1 2 3 * End-of-month daily data through 12/31/16. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. 2 Figure 12. FDR Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump 2 1 1 Nov PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT & PRESIDENTS BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS (1-month change) 0 0-46 48 0 2 4 6 8 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 12 14 16 18 - Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 6 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
2 Figure 13. FDR Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Misc. Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump 2 Nov 1 1 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT & PRESIDENTS BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS (96-month change) 0 0-46 48 0 2 4 6 8 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 12 14 16 18 - Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / January 3, 18 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 00 Presidential Cycles www.
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