Stimulating Investment in the Western Balkans Ellen Goldstein World Bank Country Director for Southeast Europe February 24, 2014
Key Messages Location, human capital and labor costs make investing in the Western Balkans today a great opportunity! Maximum investment, growth and jobs will require courageous Governments to do faster and deeper reforms; Macro-fiscal adjustment, enhancing competitiveness and connectedness, and building new economy skills are key; History shows that integration into the European economic bloc will drive a powerful convergence towards prosperity.
Location: next to the world s largest and most connected economic bloc Note: Map resized according to economic strength
Human capital: education outcomes exceed other fastgrowing, middle-income regions 480 460 PISA scores in math test, 2012 Trend: Stagnating 440 420 Trend: Stagnating Trend: Improving 400 Trend: Stagnating 380 360 LAC Developing Asia Western Balkans ECA Source: PISA; Note: Developing Asia includes Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand Western Balkans includes: Albania, Montenegro, Serbia
Labor costs: significantly lower than the rest of Europe but well beyond low-cost Asia 1200 Nominal average monthly wage in USD, 2010 1000 800 600 400 200 0 India Indonesia Philippines Thailand Albania China Serbia Macedonia, FYR Bosnia EU11 average Source: ILO
Yet labor force participation lowest and unemployment highest of mid/high income regions 70 Labor Force Participation Rate (% pop) 30 Unemployment Rate (% of labor force) 65 25 60 20 55 15 50 10 45 5 40 SEE ECA LAC EAP OECD (Europe) 2007 2012 OECD (Non Europe) 0 SEE ECA LAC EAP OECD (Europe) 2007 2012 OECD (Non Europe) Notes: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; EAP = East Asia and Pacific.
World leaders in exporting people rather than goods and services Share of migrant stock in source region population 25.4% 13.2% 1990 7.0% 6.0% 2013 2.7% 3.0% Western Balkans Rest of Southern Europe Rest of the World Source: Based on UN International Migrant Stocks (2013 revision)
Doing More to Stimulate Investment and Jobs
Post-crisis recovery (2009-2013) much slower than East Asia after its crisis (1998-2002) 10 8 distance from pre-crisis peak 6 4 2 0-2 t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t=0 t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7-4 -6-8 Western Balkans (t=2008) EU11 (t=2008) East Asia excl. China (t=1997)
East Asia aggressively pursued export-led growth; Western Balkans current accounts deteriorated 10 5 0 t-8 t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 t=5 t=6 t=7-5 -10-15 -20 EU 11, t=2008 Western Balkans, t=2008 East Asia**, t=1997
East Asia s fiscal position stabilized; Western Balkans deteriorated significantly 3 2 EU11 Western Balkans East Asia* 2007 2013 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Note: East Asia* (Crisis Period) 1997-2003
Global connectedness below rest of Europe and fast-growing Asia Global connectedness score, 0-100 90 80 2007 2011 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina FYR Macedonia Serbia EU11 EU15 Singapore Source: DHL
Trade facilitation and logistics fall short of European and global standards Logistics Performance Index Score 4.5 4.0 3.5 Timeliness 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Customs and Clearance EU 15 Average Western Balkan Average Singapore Tracking & tracing Infrastructure for trade Logistics competence Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index International shipments
Export performance reflects weak integration in global economy Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Kosovo BiH Albania Serbia Montenegro Macedonia, FYR Panama Malaysia Ireland Singapore
Labor market demands youth with new economy skills; older cohort risks obsolescence FYR Macedonia, Cohort born after 1955 FYR Macedonia, Cohort born after 1974 65 65 Mean Skill Percentile of 2007 Skills Distribution 60 55 50 45 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 60 55 50 45 40 New Economy skills Manual skills Routine Skills 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: World Bank staff, based on LFS.
Reforms Make a Difference
Stronger reformers benefit from increased employment and labor productivity but with a lag 80% % of years in each decade when both labor productivity and employment increased 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s 1990s 2000s Poland FYR Macedonia Belarus Advanced Reformers Intermediate Reformers Late Reformers Advanced Reformers Poland 1990s Intermediate Reformers FYR Macedonia 1990s Late Reformers Belarus 1990s Source: Back To Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia (2013). Advanced Reformers Poland 2000s Intermediate Reformers FYR Macedonia 2000s Late Reformers Belarus 2000s
Comparing two countries: business climate reforms and employment growth 80 75 70 65 Doing Business: Distance to frontier (=100) Employment growth, 2008=100 (2008-2012) 110 108 106 104 60 55 50 45 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia, FYR Left chart: This measure shows the distance of each economy to the frontier. An economy s distance to frontier is reflected on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the lowest performance and 100 represents the frontier. Right chart, Source: Authors calculations based on ILO and WDI. 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bosnia and Herzegovina FYR Macedonia
History on your side: Western Balkans will benefit from Europe s convergence machine Annual growth of consumption per capita between 1970 and 2009, by level of consumption in 1970 Annual per capita consumption growth percent, 1970-2009 6 4 2 0 Europe Corr. = -0.80*** n = 26 0 3 6 9 12 15 East Asia Corr. = -0.21 n = 15 0 3 6 9 12 15 Initial level of consumption per capita, 1970 PPP, thousands of 2005 international dollars Latin America Corr. = -0.25 n = 22 0 3 6 9 12 15 Note: n = number of countries. *** statistical significance at the 1 percent. Source: World Bank staff calculations, based on Penn World Table 7.0 (Heston, Summers, and Aten 2011).
Key Messages Location, human capital and labor costs make investing in the Western Balkans today a great opportunity! Maximum investment, growth and jobs will require courageous Governments to do faster and deeper reforms; Macro-fiscal adjustment, enhancing competitiveness and connectedness, and building new economy skills are key; History shows that integration into the European economic bloc will drive a powerful convergence towards prosperity.
Thank you Ellen Goldstein egoldstein@worldbank.org