ROME, GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY PART I ANALYSIS OF POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission
ROME, GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY Part I ANALYSIS OF POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE Prepared under Contract with the COOSA VALLEY AREA PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION Box 1424 Rome, Georgia by Northwest Georgia Branch Industrial Development Division Engineering Experiment Station GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Box 1261 Rome, Georgia The preparation of this document was financially aided through a federal grant from the Urban Renewal Administration of the Housing and Home Finance Agency, under the Urban Planning Assistance Program authorized by Section 701 of the Housing Act of 1954, as amended. Georgia Department of Industry and Trade 100 State Capitol, Atlanta 3, Georgia July 1963
Table of Contents Foreword and Acknowledgments I. POPULATION II. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE III. FORECAST OF TRENDS IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT i 1 9 15 Tables 1. Population of Places Within Rome Area, 1910-1960 2. Rome Area Population Change, 1910-1960 3. Rome Area Population by Race, 1910-1960 4. Rome Area Population by Sex, 1910-1960 5. Rome Area Population by Age, 1930-1960 6. Selected Age-Group Comparisons, 1940-1960 7. Shifting Pattern of Working-Age Population 8. Years of School Completed by Persons 25 Years and Over, Rome Area, 1950 and 1960 9. Rome Area Labor Force, 1940-1960 (By Place of Residence) 10. Rome Area Employment, 1940-50-60 (By Place of Residence) 11. Rome Area Employment in Manufacturing, 1940-50-60 (By Place of Residence) 12. Rome Area Employment (By Place of Work) 13. Comparative Ranges of Wage Rates, Rome and Atlanta (First Quarter, 1962), 14. Forecast of Rome Area Population and Employment, 1980 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 16
Foreword and Acknowledgments This report is one of a series of more than 60 being prepared by staff members of the Industrial Development Division as part of a contract which the Division is carrying out for the Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission, The overall series is, in turn, part of the broader program of research and technical. assistance which Georgia Tech, through the Division's Northwest Georgia Branch, is carrying out on the Coosa Valley area's industrial and economic potentials. Through the combination of research and technical assistance with local and area development problems, the present program is designed not only to identify and analyze the area's development needs, but to provide the guidance and "follow through" necessary to see that those needs are met and that the potentials identified are actually developed. This particular report was authored by Mr. James Ro Wyatt, head, Mr. Ted St. Clair, assistant head, Mr. Wallace Bishop and Mr. Jerry Bange of the Northwest Georgia Branch. As with other aspects of the program, specialists among the more than 30 full-time staff members in Atlanta are called upon as necessary to support the four professional staff members who reside in Rome in order to better serve the Coosa Valley area. Comments and questions regarding the study are invited" Kenneth Co Wagner, Chief Industrial Development Division GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY -i=
I. POPUIATION The population of the city of Rome in 1960 totaled 32,226 -- nearly half the population of Floyd County. There is one other incorporated community and several unincorporated communities in the county. Some are more or less extensions of Rome, but others, such as Cave Spring and Shannon, are developing in the more rural sections. Table 1 gives information on the population of these built-up areas according to their boundaries at the time of each census. Table 1 POPuLATION OF PIACES WITHL~ ROME AREA, 1910-1960 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Rome 12,099 13,252 21,843 26,282 29' 615 32,226 Alto Park (u) N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,195 2,526 Cave Spring 805 738 723 982 959 1,153 Celanese (u) N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,945 1,500 Lindale-Silver Creek (u) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3,234 2,800 Shannon (u) N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,676 1,629 1/ Rest of county- 23~832 252851 262101 28:.877 242275 272296 Total Floyd County 36,736 39 '841 48,667 56,141 62,899 69,130 (u) N/A Unincorporated Not available 1/ Includes all population not listed separately. Source: U.S. Censuses of Population The trends shown are, unfortunately, of little value in estimating growth, since annexations frequently change the boundary lines of cities between each census-taking. The fi~jres for Rome in 1950 and 1960 show an increase in population of 2,611 or 8.8%. The 1960 Census (for the first time) gave some indication of the extent of annexations that took place over the decade. Some 2,493 people (7.7% of the Rome population in 1960) live in an -1-
area or areas annexed to the city since 1950. This means that the population in 1960 living within the 1950 city limits was 29,733 -- giving an increase of only 118 people in that area. This changing of the city limits means that data for different periods cannot be compared satisfactorily. The county of Floyd, however, completely contains the city of Rome, its current urban fringe, and its area of potential development within the next 20 years, and at the same time has the stable boundaries necessary for any comparative analysis trends. Since Rome dominates the economic life of the whole county, data on a county-wide basis will be used for comparative purposes throughout this series of reports. Floyd has been predominantly a manufacturing county for many years, but agriculture still plays an important part in the general economic life of the community. Land in farms in 1940 totaled 217,296 acres. This figure was reduced over the following five years, but by 1950 had picked up again and increased to 250,733 acres. Between 1950 and 1959, however, there was a loss of nearly 75,000 acres, leaving 176,161 acres in farms in 1959. The value of farm products sold increased steadily, in spite of the acreage fluctuations, reaching nearly $5 million in 1959, compared with just over $1 million in 1940. The technological changes that helped to bring about this increased yield per acre are typified by the growth in the use of tractors. In 1940 there were 221 tractors on Floyd County farms. By 1959 this number had jumped to 954. As mechanization developed, the number of workers on farms declined. Between 1940 and 1960 over 2,000 agricultural employees were turned away and forced to seek other jobs. Fortunately, other sections of the economy were able to absorb more employees, though the demand fluctuated in some manufacturing categories. Not enough jobs were available, however, to provide work both for the displaced farm workers and the youngsters entering the labor market for the first time, and the net result was an outflow of population from the county. -2-
Table 2 gives details of the population growth from 1910 to 1960. After a big spurt in the thirties, the rate of increase during the following decades gradually diminished. When allowance is made for the natural increase (total births minus total deaths) there was a net out-migration from Floyd County between 1940 and 1950 of over 3,300 people. In the following decade the out-migration increased to over 3,700 people. Table 2 ROME AREA POPULATION CHANGE, 1910-1960 Change from Previous Total Census Year Population Number Percent 1910 {April 15) 36,736 3, 623 10.9 1920 (Jan. 1) 39,841 3,105 8.5 1930 {April 1) 48,667 8,826 22.2 1940 {April 1) 56' 141 7,474 15.4 1950 {April 1) 62,899 6,758 12.0 1960 (April 1} 69,130 6,231 9.1 Source: u.s. Censuses of Population Negroes have been leaving the county in proportionately greater numbers than the white population. Over the 50 years recorded in Table 3 the non-white population dropped from 10,488 to 9,938, while the white population more than doubled. As a result of these reverse trends the non-white population represented only 14.4% of the total population in the county in 1960, compared with 28.5% in 1910. The numerical increase since 1930 was considerably less than the natural increase. In the last decade nearly 900 Negroes left the county -- almost one quarter of the total out-migration. -3-
Table 3 ROME AREA POPULATION BY RACE, 1910-1960 Percent Non- Non- Year Total White White White White 1910 36,736 26,248 10,488 71.5 28.5 1920 39,841 30,599 9,242 76.8 23.2 1930 48,667 40,037 8,630 82.3 17.7 1940 56' 141 47,500 8,641 84.6 15.4 1950 62,899 53,612 9,287 85.2 14.8 1960 69,130 59,192 9 '938 85.6 14.4 Source: U.S. Censuses of Population Over the past half century females have consistently outnumbered the males in Floyd County (Table 4). This predominance of females showed itself in Georgia in 1920 and in the nation in 1950. By 1960 the proportion of females in the nation stood at 50.8%, in Georgia it was 51.2%, while Floyd County was still ahead with 51.9%. Table 4 ROME AREA POPULATION BY SEX, 1910-1960 Percent Year Total Male Female Male Female 1910 36,736 18,320 18,416 49.9 50.1 1920 39,841 19,778 20,063 49.6 50.4 1930 48,667 24,101 24,566 49.5 50.5 1940 56' 141 27,572 28,569 49.1 50.9 1950 62,899 30,259 32,640 48.1 51.9 1960 69,130 33,268 35,862 48.1 51.9 Source: U.S. Censuses of Population -4-
Table 5 shows how the age groups are affected by the migration from the county. Table 5 ROME AREA POPULATION BY AGE, 1930-196ol/ Age Persons Percent Distribution GrouQ 1930 1940 1950 1960 1930 1940 1950 1960 0-4 5,391 5,399 6,944 7,427 11.1 9.6 11.0 10.7 5-14 11,202 11,448 11,.283 14,054 23.0 20.4 17.9 20.3 15-24 11' 141 11,518 10,860 9,962 22.9 20.5 17.3 14.4 25-34 6,955 10,553 10,309 9,269 14.3 18.8 16.4 13.4 35-44 5,439 6,780 9,481 9,489 11.2 12.1 15.1 13.7 45-54 4, 323 4,833 6,065 8,402 8.9 8.6 9.6 12.2 55-64 2,510 3,285 4,142 5,236 5.1 5.9 6.6 7.6 65 and over 1,699 2,325 3,815 5,291 3.5 4.1 6.1 7.7 Unknown 7 Total 48,667 56,141 62,899 69,130 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1/ Censuses of 1910 and 1920 do not give information by comparable age groups by county. Source: u.s. Censuses of Population Between 1940 and 1960 the proportion of population aged 15-34 years decreased from 39.3% to 27.8%. In a population showing a net increase of 12,989 people over the 20 years, this age group decreased by 2,840 people. At the same time the older age groups, with a longer life span, formed an increasing proportion of the population. This change in age-group proportions follows a national trend, but, as can be seen in Table 6, the change is more pronounced in Floyd County than in metropolitan Atlanta, the state of Georgia or the United States. -5-
Table 6 SELECTED AGE-GROUP COMPARISONS, 1940-1960 Age 15-24 Floyd Metropolitan State of United Countl;: Atlanta Georgia States 1940 20.5 18.9 20.3 18.2 1950 17.3 15.9 16.5 14.7 1960 14.4 14.3 15.3 13.4 Change, 1940-60 -6.1-4.6-5.0-4.8 Age 25-34 1940 18.8 19.0 16.5 16.2 1950 16.4 17.9 15.4 15.7 1960 13.4 14.8 12.9 12.8 Change, 1940-60 -5.4-4.2-3.6-3.4 Age 65 and over 1940 4.1 4.9 5.1 6.8 1950 6.1 6.4 6.4 8.2 1960 7.7 6.5 7.4 9.2 Change, 1940-60 3.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 Source: U.S. Censuses of Population A closer look at what is happening can be obtained by checking age groups through to the following census. This is done in Table 7 where the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups of 1950 are compared with the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups of 1960. The decline in the first group of U.S. figures is du.e chiefly to men in the 15-24 age group being abroad in the armed forces. In-migration plus the returning military forces result in a reverse trend in the second group of figures. These factors also apply to the other areas shown, but if the changes in the national figures are considered as normal, the shifts elsewhere form a definite pattern of movement within the U.S. Many of the youngsters leaving school and entering the labor force are unable to find work in their home counties and are attracted by the job opportunities in big cities such as Atlanta. A lack of alternative -6-
jobs for the displaced farm workers causes a similar trek to the big cities. The net result for the state of Georgia is a continuing loss of workers. In Floyd County in the 1950-60 decade the loss on a proportionate basis was even greater than that of the state. Trends of other 10-year age groups in Floyd County can be seen in Table 5 by following the groups down one step for each census year -- bearing in mind the increasing death rate likely in the older groups. Table 7 SHIFTING PATTERN OF WORKING-AGE POPULATION Floyd Metropolitan State of United County Atlanta Georgia States 1950, Age 5-14 11,283 112,279 666,501 24,429,601 1960, Age 15-24 9,962 144,979 602 ~ 765 2420201004 Change: Persons 1,321 32,700-63,736-409,597 Percent -11.7 29.1-9.6-1.7 1950, Age 15-24 10,860 115,743 567,999 22,220,676 1960, Age 25-34 9,269 150,908 508:~121 221818:~310 Change: Persons 1,591 35,165-59,878 597,634 Percent -14.7 30.4-10.5 2.7 Source: U.S. Censuses of Population Table 8 breaks down the years of school completed by persons 25 years and over by race. Education in the county has improved over the past decade, with the median number of school years completed increasing from 8.5 to 9.3 for the white population and from 5.6 to 6.6 for Negroes. The 1960 figures show a higher educational level for Negroes than the median of 6.1 years for Georgia, but the white population is a whole year below the state median of 10.3 years of school completed. These figures would be higher were it not for out-migration -- it is the better-educated section of the population that can compete successfully for jobs elsewhere. However, school drop-outs obviously continue to be a problem. In the Rome Area in 1960 over half the people of 25 years and over had never been to high school. -7-
Table 8 YEARS OF SCHOOL COMPLETED BY PERSONS 2 5 YEARS AND OVER, ROME AREA, 1950 AND 196ol/ Persons As Percent of Persons 25 Years and Over 1950 1960 1950 1960 Non- Non- Non- Non- White White White White White White White White Persons 25 years and over 28,850 4,890 32' 695 4,974 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No. school years completed 705 405 693 316 2.5 8.3 2.1 6.3 Elementary: 1-4 4,155 1,675 3,889 1,383 14.5 34.4 11.9 27.8 5 and 6 4,510 1,225 4,191 1,003 15.8 25.2 12.8 20.2 7 3,290 550 3,542 636 11.5 11.3 10.8 12.8 8 3,500 330 3,478 428 12.2 6.8 10.7 8.6 I High Schoo 1: 1-3 7,210 440 6,605 661 25.2 9.1 20.2 13.3 00 I 4 2,415 70 6,331 346 8.5 1.4 19.4 7.0 College: 1-3 1,490 100 2,065 100 5.2 2.1 6.3 2.0 4 or more 1,315 70 1,901 101 4.6 1.4 5.8 2.0 Not reported 260 25 Median school years completed 8.5 5.6.9.3 6.6 ll Data not available by county for earlier years. Source: U.S. Censuses of Population
II. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE The employed labor force in Floyd County increased between 1940 and 1960 at a slightly faster rate than the population (24.1% compared with 23.1%) in spite of the drop in farm employment and the fluctuations in some sections of manufacturing. Male workers increased by only 17.6%, with a gain of only 12.1% in the total male labor force (Table 9). Women workers, however, increased by 38.1% over the 20-year period. In 1960 they formed 35.5% of the total labor force, compared with 31.9% in 1940. Table 9 ROME AREA labor FORCE, 1940-1960 (By Place of Residence) Total 1940-60 Change 1940 1950 1960 Number Percent Persons 14 years and over 40,414 45,705 48,805 8,391 20.8 Labor force 22,981 24,973 27,700 4, 719 20.5 Employed 21' 108 23' 562 26,202 5,094 24.1 Unemployed 1,873 1,411 1,498-375 -20.0 Male 1940-60 Change 1940 1950 1960 Number Percent Persons 14 years and over 19,490 21,516 22,995 3,505 18.0 Labor force 15' 767 16,642 17,673 1,906 12.1 Employed 14,375 15,771 16,906 2,531 17.6 Unemployed 1,392 871 767-625 -44.9 Female 1940-60 Change 1940 1950 1960 Number Percent Persons 14 years and over 20,924 24' 189 25,810 4,886 23.4 Labor force 7,214 8,331 10,027 2,813 39.0 Employed 6,733 7,791 9,296 2,563 38.1 Unemployed 481 540 731 250 52.0 Source: u.s. Censuses of Population -9-
Table 10 shows the variation in employment between 1940 and 1960 by type of industry. With the exception of agriculture and forestry all industries show a numerical gain in employees. If the agricultural loss of over 2,000 workers is excluded, the other non-agricultural categories show an increase of just under 7,200. The bulk of this gain came in the retail and service trades. Manufacturing, the most important single industry, had a very modest gain of 179 workers over the two decades. As a proportion of total employment, manufacturing workers dropped from 45.6% in 1940 to 37.2% in 1960. Table 10 ROME AREA EMPLOYMENT, 1940-50-60 (By Place of Residence) Em:eloyees Percent Distribution 1940 1950 1960 1940 1950 1960 Agricu 1 ture 2,939 2,188 858 14.2 9.4 3.3 Forestry, fisheries, mining 40 32 33.2.1.1 Construction 971 1,069 1, 617 4.7 4.6 6.3 Manufacturing 9,423 9,328 9,602 45.6 40.1 37.2 Transportation, communication, utilities 643 967 1,317 3.1 4.2 5.1 Wholesale trade 205 510 584 1.0 2.2 2.3 Retail trade 2,099 3,406 3,932 10.2 14.6 15.2 Finance, insurance, real estate 316 512 880 1.5 2.2 3.4 Services and miscellaneous 4,032 5,265 7,005 19.5 22.6 27.1 Not reported 440 285 374 Total 21,108 23,562 26,202 1oo.ol 1 1oo.ol 1 100.ol 1 11 Total reported -- workers with industry not reported have been allocated among the major industry groups in the proportion that each group comprised of the total. Source: U.S. Censuses of Population -10-
Table 11 analyzes manufacturing employment in more detail. The figures show that the very modest gain in manufacturing employment actually covered a series of gains and losses in different types of manufacturing. The heaviest loss was in textiles between 1950 and 1960, but part of this was not a true loss but a change in the classification of the Celanese Corp. There appears to have been some doubt in the past as to whether the product of this plant should be regarded as textiles or whether it should be listed under chemicals. The switching of the classification has caused an apparent fluctuation in the chemical industry and has magnified the employment loss in textiles. There has, however, been a major loss in the number of textile workers even when allowance is made for this reclassification. MOst of this was due to the gradual reduction in employees at the Dan River Mills, which eventually closed down in 1958. Table 11 ROME AREA E:MPLOYMENT I:'.\f MAN'iwT ACT0'RING, 1940-50-60 (By Place of Residence) Em12loyees Percent Distribution 1940 1950 1960 1940 1950 1960 Food 255 479 888 2.7 5.1 9.2 Textiles 5,735 6,484 3,301 60.9 69.5 34.4 Apparel 650 556 673 6.9 6.0 7.0 Furniture, lumber, wood 436 777 628 4.6 8.3 6.5 Printing, publishing 81 134 189.9 1.4 2.0 Chemicals 1,374 202 1,372 14.6 2.2 14.3 Primary, fabricated metals 616 319 203 6.5 3.4 2.1 Machinery, except electrical 91 183 199 1.0 2.0 2.1 Electrical machinery, equipment 2 1,006 10.5 Transportation equipment 21 4.3 115.2.5 1.2 Other 164 149 1~028 L2 1.6 10.7 Total 9,423 9,328 9,602 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: U.S. Censuses of Population -11-
As textiles lost ground other industries came into the county. The total employment for textiles and chemicals (to include Celanese Corp.) in 1940 was 7,109. In 1950 it had dropped to 6,686 and by 1960 it was 4,673. Over the same two decades other manufacturing employment increased from 2,314 in 1940 to 2,642 in 1950 and to 4,929 in 1960. Part of this increase was in a type of industry new to the county. In 1940 there were no workers employed in electrical machinery and equipment, but the establishment of the Median Transformer Department of General Electric in 1954 boosted employment in this category to 10.5% of total manufacturing. Earlier in the same decade Georgia Kraft Company - Rome Division (makers of container board paper) moved into the county and were joined in 1955 by Inland Container Corporation. Pulp and paper companies are not recorded separately by the Census of Population, but the impact of these two companies can be seen i.n the "Other manufacturing" category which jumped from 1.6% to 10.7% of total manufacturi.ng employment between 1950 and 1960. All the employment figures mentioned so far in this c.hapter have been by place of residence, but the picture is not changed appreciably by examining i.t on the basis of place of work. Less than 4/'o of the employed labor force in Floyd County travels outside the county to work. Other workers from the surrounding counties cross into Floyd to their jobs, but they form only a small proportion of the total number employed in the county. The Georgia Department of Labor has made estimates for September 1962 of workers whose place of employment is Floyd County (Table 12). The classifications used are in some respects not comparable with those of the census, but some general conclusions can be drawn from a comparison of the figures with those for 1960 in Tables 10 and 11. Manufacturing jobs are apparently attracting workers from other counties, and some Floyd residents are traveling out to work in construction, transportation, communications and utilities. It is difficult to get the complete story because of the labor Department's separate category of "self employed," but in general the in-and-out commuting appears to be roughly in balance. Residents of counties to the north of Floyd County's labor market area have the counter-attraction of metropolitan Chattanooga, while residents of counties to the south and east are more likely to be attracted to Atlanta -- -12-
particularly white-collar workers and union members. Table 13 gives the wage rates offered during the first quarter of 1962 in Atlanta compared with those of Floyd County. Table 12 RO:ME AREA EMPLOYMENT (By Place of Work) Farm and forestry Non-farm Wages and salary workers, except domestics: Construction Manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Apparel and other finished textile products Lumber and wood products, except furniture Furniture and fixtures Printing, publishing and allied industries Chemicals and allied products Stone, clay and glass products Metals and machinery All other manufacturing (Total manufacturing) Transportation, communications, utilities Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance and real estate Service Government All other non-manufacturing Self-employed, unpaid family workers and domestics Total employed September 1962 850 1,200 930 3,920 640 210 360 90 1,440 130 1,430 1,320 (10,470) 720 3,270 670 1,730 3,060 90 3,410 25,470 Source: Georgia Department of Labor -13-
Tab1~ 13 COMPARATIVE RANGES OF WAGE RATES, ROME AND ATLANTA (First Quarter, 1962) I t-'.j::'- I Non-Union Flo~d County Atlanta Carpenter $ 1.75 - $ 2.70 hr. $ 1.75 - $ 2.75 hr. Electrician 2.00-3.80 hr. 2.25-2.75 hr. Plumber 2.00-3.35 hr. 2.50-3.00 hr. Painter 1.65-2.50 hr. 1.75-2.50 hr. Laborers, conunon 1.15-1.55 hr. 1.15-1.50 hr. Machinist 1.75-2.50 hr. 2.25-2.75 hr. Mechanic, maintenance 1.50-3.10 hr. 2.00-2.75 hr. Welder 1.50-2.00 hr. 1.50-2.00 hr. Clerk, office 40.00-50.00 wk. 50.00-70.00 wk. Secretary 50.00-70.00 wk. 75.00-95.00 wk. u. 1/ nl.on- $3.25 - $4.00 hr. 2.75-3.25 hr. 3.25-4.00 hr. 2.25-2.85 hr. 1.38-2.00 hr. 2.75-3.25 hr. 2.57-3.09 hr. 2.42-11 Production workers -- not construction. Source: Georgia Department of Labor
III. FORECAST OF TRENDS IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT It is not realistic to make forecasts solely by mechanical projections of the past trends without taking into account the changing patterns of economic activity. Past performance is only one indicator basic factors of local resources and programs must be considered as well as the way they might fit in with, or be influenced by, current regional trendso Estimates of future economic developments, based on reasonable assumptions of various interrelated factors, can be proved wrong almost overnight by such things as the decision of a major manufacturer to settle in or near the area, the re-routing of a major highway~ the building of a reservoir, or the discovery of new uses for certain raw materials. Such possibilities cannot be considered where there is no present indication of their development. A basic premise is, of course, that there will be no national upheaval due to any major military action. Given a stable national economy, the following local developments are anticipated: 1. Manufacturing jobs available within the county will increase. 2. Commuting both to and from the county will increaseo 3. Agricultural employment will continue to decline. The growth of manufacturing employment is the dynamic factor in current economic development. New factory jobs pull in or retain workers and their families, and the growing population creates a demand for increased services and facilities. The prospects for new manufacturing in Floyd County are promising. Good sites are available in two recently established industrial districts 3 as well as in two railroad-owned tracts and at several individually owned locations, with ready access to railroads, highways, and utilities. Local leadership is active in its endeavors to bring new plants into the area, and the existence of the new Coosa Valley Vocational Technical School means that availability of skilled labor need no longer be a problem in attracting higher-wage industries. New manufacturing jobs will attract more commuters from surrounding counties. Out-commuting will also increase as an improving highway system cuts down travel time to the major industrial centers of Atlanta and -15-
Table 14 FORECAST OF ROME AREA POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT, 1980 Increase 1960-1980 1960 1980 Number Percent Manufacturing employment (by place of residence) 9,602 11,500 1,898 19.8 Total labor force (by place of residence) 27,700 32,600 4,900 17.7 Total population 69,130 83' 000 13,870 20.1 Chattanooga. More jobs mean a growing population, which in turn will create more local employment in construction, trade, utilities, and all types of services. The city of Rome will develop more strongly as a trade and service center for the surrounding area. By 1980, manufacturing employees resident in the Rome Area are expected to number 11,500, with a total labor force of 32,600. Only about 1% of this total will be employed in agriculture. Population in the county will increase to approximately 83,000, an increase of nearly 14,000 people between 1960 and 1980 -- compared with just under 13,000 increase in the 20 years prior to 1960o These forecasts are summarized in Table 14. -16-
ROME, GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY PART II AN ANALYSIS OF INCOME AND RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission
ROME, GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY Part II AN ANALYSIS OF INCOME AND RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE Prepared under Contract with the COOSA VALLEY AREA PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION Box 1424 Rome, Georgia by Northwest Georgia Branch Industrial Development Division Engineering Experiment Station GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Box 1261 Rome, Georgia The preparation of this document was financially aided through a federal grant from the Urban Renewal Administration of the Housing and Home Finance Agency, under the Urban Planning Assistance Program authorized by Section 701 of the Housing Act of 1954, as amended. Georgia Department of Industry and Trade 100 State Capitol, Atlanta 3, Georgia July 1963
Table of Contents Foreword and Acknowledgments I. RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE II. SOURCES OF INCOME III. FORECAST OF TRENDS IN INCOME AND TRADE i 1 6 10 Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. Rome Area Rome Area Rome Area Rome Area Retail Trade, 1939-1958 Retail Sales, 1939-1958 Wholesale Trade, 1939-1958 Income Sources 5. Rome Area Family Income Distribution, 1949-1959 6. Per Capita Personal Income, Floyd County, State of Georgia and U.S., 1939, 1947 and 1959 7. Per Capita Personal Income in 1959 Dollars, Floyd County, State of Georgia and U.S., 1939, 1947 and 1959 8. Forecast of Rome Area Income and Trade, 1980 1 2 5 6 8 9 9 11
Foreword and Acknowledgments This report is one of a series of more than 60 being prepared by staff members of the Industrial Development Division as part of a contract which the Division is carrying out or the Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission. The overall series is, in turn, part of the broader program of research and technical assistance which Georgia Tech, through the Division's Northwest Georgia Branch, is carrying out on the Coosa Valley area's industrial and economic potentials. Through the combination of research and technical assistance with local and area development problems, the present program is designed not only to identify and analyze the area's development needsj but to provide the guidance and "follow through" necessary to see that those needs are met and that the potentials identified are actually developed. This particular report was authored by Mr. James R. Wyatt, head, Mr. Ted St. Clair, assistant head, Mr. Wallace Bishop and Mr. Jerry Bange of the Northwest Georgia Branch. As with other aspects of the program, specialists among the more than 30 full-time staff members in Atlanta are called upon as necessary to support the four professional staff members who reside in Rome in order to better serve the Coosa Valley area. Comments and questions regarding the study are invited" Kenneth C. Wagner, Chief Industrial Development Division GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY -i-
I. RETAIL AND WHOLESALE TRADE Retail trade figures for Floyd County from 1939 to 1958 are summarized in Table 1. This section of the economy advanced strongly over the 19 years ~- sales increased by 342%, payrolls by 380%. Part of this growth can be attributed to inflation, but if the 1939 figures are converted to 1958 dollar values, the sales and payroll increases become 113% and 131% respectively. This compares with a 20-year increase in population between 1940 and 1960 of 23%. Table 1 ROME AREA RETAIL TRADE, 1939-1958 1939 1948 1954 Number of establishments 504 666 598 Sales (in thousands) $14' 135 $44,593 $51,919 Payroll (in thousands) $ 1,412 $ 4,333 $ 5,401 Employees 1,725 2,608 2,493 1958 663 $62,490 $ 6,777 3,003 Source: u.s. Censuses of Business, Retail Trade The payroll increase is an indication of one of the causes of the jump in sales. The number of employees increased by 74% compared with the 131% increase in payroll (calculated in 1958 constant dollars), and this followed a nationwide trend. Salaries and wages increased in all sections of the national economy, and the greater spending power automatically benefited the retailers. Local developments emphasized this trend. Within the employment structure of Floyd County there was a shift from farming to other nonagricultural employment with higher cash earnings. Over the 20 years between 1940 and 1960 the number of agricultural workers declined by over 2,000, while other industries increased by over 7,000 workers. {More detailed information on these employment changes can be found in Part I of these reports.) -1-
Table 2 breaks the retail sales down by kinds of business and shows that the steady growth of total sales is not typical of all sections of the trade. In fact, if all the figures are converted to 1958 dollars only three types of stores -- food, gasoline stations and other retail show sales increasing through all the census years. (Non-store retail sales are ignored for purposes of this discussion. Sales in this category are very small, and se.parate figures are only available from 1954.) Table 2 ROME AREA RETAIL SALES, 1939-1958 1939 1948 1954 1958 (000) (000) (000) (000) General merchandise $ 2,253 $ 6,973 $ 4,554 $ 8,963 Apparel, accessories 1,525 3,144 4, 358 4,561 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment 1,188 3,550 3,722 4,384 Food 2,840 9,705 13,533 16,140 Eating and drinking 516 2,214 3,172 3,050 Drug 513 1,368 1,451 2,435 Lumber, building materials, hardware, farm equipment, dealers 700 5,187 3,919 2,329 Automotive dealers 2,182 6,647 9,221 9,479 Gasoline service stations 984 2, 370 3,765 5,562 Other retail 1,434 3,435 3,890 4,925 Non-store retail * * 334 662 ic - Total $14,135 $44,593 $51,919 $62,490 Not separately classified Source: U.S. Censuses of Business, Retail Trade Food store sales have increased at a much faster rate than the population, and part of this growth is directly attributable to the decline in agricultural employment. Farm workers buy a minimum of food from the stores; their low money earnings are supplemented by payments in kind from the land. In Floyd County in 1940 only 72% of the products harvested were actually sold. The rest were either consumed or traded by the farmer -2-
and his hired hands. Since over 2, 000 people left agricultural work betwee.n 1940 and 1960, the food stores benefited by the increased purchases of these workers and their families. Service stations, of course, grew with the nationwide boom in auto travel, though the auto dealers themselves found sales dropping (in terms of 1958 dollars) between 1954 and 1958. Eating and drinking places also lost ground between 1954 and 1958. Drug sales decreased in the earlier period between 1948 and 1954 (in constant dollars). If combined these two types of stores would show steady growth, and the fluctuations here may be due to the competition of the drug store lunch counters with the regular eating places. Sales of the lumber, building materials, hardware and farm equipment stores jumped between 1939 and 1948, then dropped away during the following 10 years. This fluctuation followed the changes in farming in the county. Land in farms grew from 217,296 acres in 1940 to 250,733 acres in 1950, then decreased to only 176,161 acres by 1959. The number of tractors on farms jumped from 221 i.n 1940 to 816 in 1950, increased at a slower rate to 972 in 1954, and then declined to 954 in 1958. It would appear that increased automation combined with high acreages boosted farm equipment sales in the earlier years; then, with machines already purchased to farm over 250,000 acres, demand for equipment slackened as land in farms decreased by nearly 75,000 acres. General merchandise, apparel and ~urniture sales all fluctuated (in terms of constant dollars) during the period under review, with general merchandise dropping sharply in 1954. General merchandise stores (which include department stores) compete with apparel and furniture establishments in many of their lines, but even when combined the sales of these three types of stores still fluctuated. Although Rome is the largest Georgia city outside the metropolitan areas, its location is s"gch that stores selling major items of furniture, appliances and apparel face competition from both Atlanta and Chattanooga. Although the Rome shops gain trade from the surrounding counties, they also lose some local area purchases to the big department stores and specialty shops of the two nearby metropolitan areas. In 1958, -3-
however, these three types of stores showed sales of above the average for the state on a per capita basis and were successfully pulling slightly more in sales from the nearby counties than they lost elsewhere. Wholesale sales in the county increased by 669% between 1939 and 1958 (Table 3). Converted to 1958 dollars this increase becomes 270%, a much greater proportionate gain than that of retailing. Rome has developed into a distribution center for the surrounding counties -- including some across the state line in Alabama. A great variety of merchandise is handled - food, hardware, sporting goods, building supplies, paper goods, mill supplies, advertising specialties, etc. Where the quantities involved are sufficiently large the Rome wholesalers deal directly with the manufactur~ ers. Other supplies are obtained from Atlanta and Chattanooga particularly Atlanta, where the big wholesale houses carry stocks of all types of merchandise ready for shipment throughout the Southeast. Both Atlanta and Chattanooga still distribute some items directly to retailers in Floyd and the surrounding counties, with Atlanta again handling the major share of such shipments. In addition to the merchant wholesalers some Rome manufacturers have set up distribution agencies to handle their own products. Some of these manufacturing wholesalers ship their goods throughout the Southeast, while others have achieved a nationwide market. -4-
Table 3 ROME AREA WHOLE SALE TRADE, 1939-1958 1939 1948 1954 1958 Establishments Merchant wholesalers N/A 35 47 62 Other operating types N/A 22 25 28 Total 31 57 72 90 Sales (000) Merchant wholesalers N/A $14,347 $19,874 $27,260 Other operating types N/A 10~486 15:1486 15~698 Total $5,584 $24,833 $35,360 $42,958 Payroll {000) $278 $1, 150 $1,793 $2,402 Employees 171 395 478 552 N/A - Not available Source: U.S. Censuses of Business, Wholesale Trade -5-
II. SOURCES OF INCOME In Part I of this series of reports the trends in various types of employment were examined in some detail. Some of the changes that took place are reflected in Table 4, giving the sources of income in the county. Farm: Non-farm: Proprietors Other workers Proprietors Salary and wage earners: Mining Manufacturing Construction Table 4 ROME AREA INCOME Transportation, communications and public utilities Government Trade, finance, services, and miscellaneous Miscellaneous (rents, dividends, interest, pensions, welfare payments, etc.) '~ Negl igib le Total Money Income SOL"RCES 1939 5.3% 1.1 6.9.2 46.3 1.7 5.0 8.6 17.2 7.7 100.0% 1947 4.5%.7 5.9.1 46.7 2.3 3.2 9.8 14.0 12. 8 100.0% 1959.8%.4 11.5 '{t; 32.5 5.4 4.9 8.9 23.5 12.1 100.0% Sources: 1939 and 1947 derived from "County Income Estimates for Seven Southeastern States" by J. L. Lancaster, published by the University of Virginia. 1959 estimated from data available in 1960 Census of Population -- General Social and Economic Characteristics. In 1940 14.2% of the employed labor force was in agriculture. The cash return from farming, however, is low, and in 1939 it accounted for only 6.4% of the county's income. Between 1939 and 1959 farm employment decreased rapidly (the 1960 Census of Population records the number of -6-
workers in agriculture as less than 30% of the 1940 figures) and although the yield per acre rose, so did the costs of production. Farming as a source of money income dropped to 5.2% in 1947 and to only 1.2% in 1959. Manufacturing has for many years been the most important section of Floyd County's economy, but the losses in employment in the textile industry mitigated the gains made elsewhere (chiefly in electrical equipment and pulp and paper). While net manufacturing gains were only fractional, services and trade had substantial gains. As a result, the salaries and wages from manufacturing dropped from 46.3% of total money income in 1939 to 32.5% in 1959, while trade, finance, service and miscellaneous increased \n proportion from 17.2% to 23.5%. As i:p.dicated in Chapter I the changes in the employment structure caused an improvement in income levels. Textile wages are not the highest in manufacturing and the cash income from farming is traditionally low, so a reduction of employees in these two industries raised the average wage level of workers. The general improvement in salaries and wages throughout the nation increased this upward trend. This is illustrated in Table 5 which shows the money income received by Floyd County families by income range for 1949 and 1959. The proportion of families receiving less than $2,000 per year dropped from 40.7% to 17.2%. Part of this change can be attributed to inflation, but if the median family income of the county in 1949 is converted to 1959 dollar values ($2,943), the gain in the 10 years is $1,726 --nearly 60% increase per family. Floyd County figures taken by themselves look very satisfactory, but some comparative data for the state place the county in better perspective. The average improvement in family income in Georgia was greater than that in Floyd County. The proportion of families with an income of less than $2,000 in 1949 was 50.9% for the state (compared with Floyd's 40.7%); by 1959 it had dropped to 22.5% (compared with Floyd's 17.2%). Median family income for Georgia in 1949 was 79% that of Floyd County, but by 1959 it was 90%. The median family income for Floyd County in 1959 was higher than that of most of the counties of Georgia. The advances made by the major urban centers -- particularly Atlanta brought the Georgia average closer to that of the county, however. -7-
Table 5 ROME AREA FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBDTION, 1949-1959 (Money Income) Number of Families Percent Distribution Income Range 1949 1959 1949 1959 Under $1,000 2,975 1,095 20.3 6.2 $ 1,000 - $ 1,999 2~985 1,935 20.4 11.0 2,000-2,999 3,205 1,978 21.9 11.3 3,000-3,999 2,300 2,238 15.7 12.7 4,000-4,999 1,455 2,284 9.9 13.0 5,000-5,999 700 2,069 4.8 11.8 6,000-6,999 390 1,714 2.7 9.8 7,000-7,999 ( 1,329 ( 7.6 ( ( 8,000-8,999 345 938 2.4 5.3 ( ( 9,000-9,999 ( 642 ( 3.7 10,000-14,999 ( 927 ( 5.3 ( ( 15,000-24,999 285 285 1.9 1.6 ( ( 25,000 and over ( 116 (.z 14' 640 17,550 100.0 100.0 Not reported 500 15' 140 17,550 Median family income $2,406 $4,669 Source: u.s. Censuses of Population This point is illustrated further in Tables 6 and 7, where the per capita total personal income for Floyd is compared with that of both Georgia and the United States. There has been some fluctuation in the general trend, but the over-all improvement of Floyd County can be seen in its relationship to the U.S. In 1939 per capita income in the county was 73% of that of the U.S.; by 1959 it had become 78%. Georgia's per capita was 56% that of the U.S. in 1939 b~t advanced to 72% by 1959. In Table 7 the per capita figures have been adjusted to allow for the change in the purchasing power of the dollar. In 1959 dollars per capita income in Floyd County increased by $829 over the 20-year period, compared with a Georgia increase of $907 and an increase in the U.S. of $994. -8-
Table 6 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOMEl/ FLOYD COUNTY, STATE OF GEORGIA AND U. S., 1939, 1947 AND 1959 1939 1947 1959 Floyd State of County Georgia $ 405 $ 310 916 884 1,678 1,557 United States $ 556 1,316 2,160 1939 1947 1959 Floyd County as % of Georgia as Georgia u.s. of U.S. 131 73 56 104 70 67 108 78 72 % ll Income from all sources, including non-monetary income received in kind rather than cash. Source: Floyd County estimated. Georgia and U.S. from "Survey of Current Business" and "Personal Income by States" (supplement to "Survey of Current Business"). Table 7 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN 1959 DOLLARS, FLOYD COVNTY, STATE OF GEORGIA AND U.S., 1939, 1947 AND 1959 1939 1947 1959 Increase (Amount) 1939-47 1947-59 1939-59 Source: Floyd State of United County Georgia States $ 849 $ 650 $1,166 1,194 1,154 1' 718 1,678 1,557 2' 160 $ 345 C: 'r' 504 $ 552 484 403 442 829 907 994 Data from Table 6, modified by Department of Labor Consumer Price Index. -9-
III. FORECAST OF TRENDS IN INCOME AND TRADE Reference has already been made in Part I of this series of reports to the hazards of estimating future economic activity. This is particularly true when the estimates are for a small area and over an extended period. Personal judgment then becomes a major factor in the interpretation of local trends as seen agai~st the background of the economic growth of both the region and the nation. On a regional and national basis personal income in all types of industry has been increasing steadily as a result of the growth in productivity per worker. The increased capital investment in Georgia (and the South in general) has enabled the southern worker to take part in this increased productivity, with the result that per capita incomes are slowly climbing towards the U.S. level. These general tendencies are expected to continue over the next 20 years. The developments forecast for Floyd County in Part I led to a population estimate of 83,000 in 1980, with a labor force of some 32,600. The increase in employment automatically ensures an increase in the total income received by residents of the county. Of more significance, however, is per capita income, especially as it compares with income elsewhere. Tables 6 and 7 show the change in per capita income in Floyd County as compared with the state of Georgia and the United States, with Floyd County consistently maintaining a higher per capita than the state, in spite of fluctuation caused by various local economic factors. These factors have already been discussed earlier in this report and in Part I. By 1980 it is anticipated that local manufacturing will have expanded and also have become more diversified. A greater number of commuters will also be working in a broad range of occupations. An increasing number of new jobs will be in higher-wage industries as the shift from farming {with its low cash return) continues and as the textile factories {with their comparatively low wage rates) become proportionately less important. The over-all result will be a growth in per capita income from $1,678 in 1959 to an estimated $2,700 in 1980, roughly 112% of the estimated Georgia figure of that date. These calculations are based on 1959 dollars; -10-
no allowance is made for changes due to inflation. The increase expected in population will push the total income received by Floyd County residents to about $224 million, compared with some $116 million in 1959. Retail and wholesale trade will, of course, benefit from this increased supply of dollars. Goods and services where convenience is of prime importance will continue to grow with the population. In addition, it is anticipated that Rome will develop more strongly as a trading center for the surrounding counties. Rome's advancement in this field will depend largely upon good merchandising methods, especially in the sale of major items of apparel and household furniture and equipment. Atlanta and Chattanooga will remain competitive, and will still siphon off part of the retail trade of the area. Wholesaling in Rome should expand along existing lines. Goods in quantity will come directly from manufacturers, but otherwise heavy reliance will be placed on supplies from the major wholesaling houses in Atlanta. Total retail sales in Floyd County can be expected to reach $130 million (in 1959 dollars) by 1980, with wholesaling at $92 million -- both figures more than double the sales recorded by the Census of Business in 1958. These forecasts are summarized in Table 8. Table 8 FORECAST OF ROME AREA INCOME AND TRADE, 1980 1958L91/ 1980. / Increase 1958L9-198o Amount Percent Per capita income $ 1,678 $ 2,700 $ 1,022 60.9 Total income 116,000,000 224,000,000 108,000,000 93.1 Total retail sales 62,490,000 130,000,000 67,510,000 108.0 Total wholesale sales 42,958,000 92,000,000 49,042,000 114.2 1/ Income for year 1959; retail and wholesale sales for year 1958. ~/ In 1959 dollars. -11-
It must be emphasized that these forecasts, while based on assumptions that appear good at the present time, are purely hypothetical. They do, however, give some dimension to the anticipated pattern of economic development and form a reasonable base for discussion of the future needs of the county. -12-
ROME, GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY PART Ill AN ANALYSIS OF EXISTING MANUFACTURERS Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission
ROME ~ GEORGIA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY Part III AN ANALYSIS OF EXISTING MANUFACTURERS Prepared under Contract with the COOSA VALLEY AREA PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION Box 1424 Rome, Georgia by Northwest Georgia Branch Industrial Development Division Engineering Experiment Station GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY. Box 1261 Rome, Georgia The preparation of this document was financially ai4ed through a federal grant from the Urban Renewal Administration of the Housing and Home Finance Agency, under the Urban Planning Assistance Program authorized by Section 701 of the Housing Act of 1954, as amendedo Georgia Department of Industry and Trade 100 State Capitol, Atlanta 3, Georgia July 1963
Table of Contents Foreword and Acknowledgments Summary Rome-Floyd County Industrial Profile Chapter I, HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT II. ORIGINS :II. LOCATION FACTORS IV. MANUFACTURING CATEGORIES AND PRODUCTS V. EMPLOYMENT VI. MARKETS AND DISTRIBUTION VII. RAW MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES VIII. INDUSTRIAL LAND AND BUILDINGS i ii iv 1 2 3 4 6 10 14 18 Table 1. Rome-Floyd Manufacturers by Standard Industrial Classification 5
Foreword and Acknowledgments This report is one of a series of more than 60 being prepared by staff members of the Industrial Development Division as part of a contract which the Division is carrying out for the Coosa Valley Area Planning and Development Commission. The over-all series is, in turn, part of the broader program of research and technical assistance which Georgia Tech, through the Division's Northwest Georgia Branch, is carrying out on the Coosa Valley area's industrial and economic potentials. Through the combination of research and technical assistance with local and area development problems, the present program is designed not only to identify and analyze the area's development needs, but to provide the guidance and "follow through" necessary to see that those needs are met and that the potentials identified are actually developed. This particular report was authored by Mr. James R. Wyatt, head, Mr. Ted St. Clair, assistant head, Mr. Wallace Bishop and Mr. Jerry Bange of the Northwest Georgia Branch. As with other aspects of the program, specialists among the more than 30 full-time staff members in Atlanta are called upon as necessary to support the four professional staff members who reside in Rome in order to better serve the Coosa Valley area. Comments and questions regarding the study are invited. Kenneth C. Wagner, Chief Industrial Development Division GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY -i-
Summary It should be noted that this analysis deals only with present day manufacturing firms and no consideration has been given to other firms which have come and gone over the years. In addition, in some instances date of establishment in Rome-Floyd County reflects the year in which present ownership acquired control of the company and does not necessarily correspond to the actual initial beginning of the manufacturing operation. In these cases the present management does not know the actual date of origin of the predecessor company, Data were compiled to develop a knowledge of the overall manufacturing base of Rome-Floyd County. Special emphasis was placed on employment, raw materials sources, plant origins, markets, and distribution. In some cases detailed figures have been withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company information which is confidential. The 111 manufacturers operating production facilities in the Rome-Floyd County community employ a total of 10,301 persons, 40 4% of the Floyd County employed labor force. Almost 36% of manufacturing employees are textile mill workers. Historically, the Rome-Floyd community has long been a manufacturing center of importance to Georgia. Growth in manufacturing payrolls and in value added by manufacture has been steady. The most significant factors influencing the location of the 111 plants, 91 of which are home-owned and managed, have been markets, labor, and raw materialso Fifteen major industrial groups, as defined by the Standard Industrial Classification Manual, are represented in the manufacturing sector of Lhe Rome economy. Manufacturers are generally well satisfied with the type, quality, and quantity of people available from the local labor supply. Twelve firms have some employees who are represented by labor unions, A large majority of local manufacturing plants sell their products in the southeastern states. National markets are significant however to many local manufacturing operations. Only in a relatively few cases is exporting more than minimal, yet total dollar value of exports is significant. -ii-