gilani@gallup.com.pk peter.kenny@colmarbrunton.com
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA METHODOLOGY EU EUROPE** NON EU EUROPE WEST ASIA EAST ASIA AFRICA Canada Argentina Austria Azerbaijan Afghanistan Australia Ethiopia* United States Brazil Bulgaria Georgia* Bangladesh China Morocco* Colombia Finland Macedonia Egypt Hong Kong Nigeria Ecuador France Russia India Japan South Africa Mexico Germany Iraq Korea Panama Ireland Jordan Thailand Paraguay Italy Lebanon Peru Latvia Pakistan Netherlands Palestine Norway Syria* Portugal Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom *Data Pending **Countries in EU, Euro zone and Schengen Nations
THE WIN Network presents at ESOMAR Annual Congress 2 nd GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICA S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION We thank ESOMAR for inspiring and organizing this Poll
70 YEARS OF CO-OPERATION BETWEEN OUR NETWORK AND ESOMAR Both were founded by the same Visionary Group. The founder of our Network, Dr. George Gallup was also among the core group which founded ESOMAR, both founded in 1947. Dr. George Gallup strongly believed that scientific polling was an essential Tool of Democracy.
WE FOCUS ON Why American Elections Become Global Elections? The Global Vote The World is keen on advising the New American President Legacy of Obama: Has America become more Powerful during his years? Shadow of Obama : Would Clinton and Trump be better or worse Presidents? Personality Politics Points to Ponder
FIELDWORK DETAILS Fieldwork: August September 2016 75% of the World s Population Total Sample Size: 47831 Face to Face: 35% (16613 respondents) Telephonic: 17% (8107 respondents) Online: 38% (18413 respondents) Mixed Methods: 10% (4698 respondents) Turnaround time from Questionnaire to this Presentation Less than 60 days Polling Evolves from National to International to Global
WHY AMERICAN ELECTIONS BECOME GLOBAL ELECTIONS? IMPACT OF U.S. PRESIDENT ON MY COUNTRY We asked: How much, in your view, is the impact of the American Election on your country, on issues such as economic progress, trade, peace etc. In other words, how much is the impact of the American President on what happens in your country? The World Responded.
WHY AMERICAN ELECTIONS BECOME GLOBAL ELECTIONS? IMPACT OF U.S. PRESIDENT ON MY COUNTRY 69% 19% 6% 6% HIGH LOW NO IMPACT DK/NR
THE GLOBAL VOTE ON U.S. ELECTIONS We asked: If you were to vote in the American Election for President, who would you vote for? The World Responded.
Portugal Finland Korea Sweden Colombia Austria Mexico Germany Netherlands Paraguay Spain Brazil Jordan Ireland France Norway Nigeria Azerbaijan Italy Hong Kong Japan Canada Bangladesh Panama Thailand Australia Ecuador U.K. Argentina Egypt South Africa Peru Afghanistan Pakistan Iraq Bulgaria Slovenia Macedonia Latvia Lebanon India China Palestine Russia 100% 80% 80% 79% 79% 76% 75% GLOBAL VOTE HILLARY S EDGE OVER TRUMP COUNTRY WISE 69% 69% 69% 68% 68% 66% 65% 63% 62% 62% 60% 40% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 56% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 50% 49% 46% 44% 44% 40% 39% 34% 34% 31% 30% 28% 23% 23% 22% 20% 9% 0% -20% -22% -23% -40%
GLOBAL VOTE THE GEOGRAPHY OF GLOBAL VOTE WORLD Latin America EU Europe Non EU Europe Western Asia Eastern Asia Africa U.S 59% 25% 72% 73% 13% 61% 56% 69% 8% 11% 32% 20% 37% 20% 48% 41% DK/NR 16% 20% 16% 55% 19% 7% 11% 11% +34% +64% +62% -18% +41% +19% +49% +7% 11
GLOBAL VOTE THE DEMOGRAPHY OF GLOBAL VOTE HILLARY S EDGE OVER TRUMP GENDER AGE Male 61% 26% +35% Female 58% 25% +33% Under 34 58% 26% +32% 35-54 60% 26% +34% 55+ 63% 23% +40%
GLOBAL VOTE THE DEMOGRAPHY OF GLOBAL VOTE EDUCATION Low 54% 17% +37% Medium 62% 21% +41% High 59% 30% +29% RELIGION Roman Catholic 72% 15% +57% Russian/ Eastern Orthodox 13% 36% -23% Protestant 69% 16% +53% Other Christian 65% 22% +43% Hindu 62% 21% +41% Muslim 60% 15% +45% Jewish 50% 30% +20% Buddhist 55% 41% +14% Other 64% 15% +49% Atheist / Agnostic 56% 38% +18% Refused/DK/NR 60% 7% +53%
We asked: WORLD KEEN TO ADVISE NEW AMERICAN PRESIDENT ON GLOBAL VS LOCAL PRIORITIES Considering that America leads the global economy, should the new American President give priority to the economic interests of the American people, the interests of the people of the world as a whole, or equally to both? The World Responded.
WORLD KEEN TO ADVISE NEW AMERICAN PRESIDENT ON GLOBAL VS LOCAL PRIORITIES DK/NR 16% 47% 31% 6% LOCAL Tilt U.S. 61% GLOCAL Tilt U.S. 28% GLOBAL Tilt U.S. 6% U.S. 5%
ADVICE ON FIGHTING GLOBAL TERRORISM FOCUS ON WAR ON TERRORISM We asked: Would you advise the American President to pour more American Resources into the War against Terrorism (for e.g. against ISIS)? The World Responded.
FOCUS ON WAR ON TERRORISM ADVICE ON FIGHTING GLOBAL TERRORISM 45% 14% 31% 10% MORE LESS MAINTAIN DK/NR U.S. 36% U.S. 15% U.S. 35% U.S. 14%
We asked: LEGACY OF OBAMA HAS AMERICA BECOME STRONGER DURING HIS PERIOD IN POWER? What in your view has been the overall impact of President Obama on the power of America in the world? Has he made it stronger, weaker or made no difference during his 8 years in office? The World Responded.
LEGACY OF OBAMA HAS AMERICA BECOME STRONGER DURING HIS PERIOD IN POWER? 47% 18% 27% 8% STRONGER WEAKER REMAINED THE SAME DK/NR U.S. 38% U.S. 37% U.S. 18% U.S. 7%
SHADOW OF OBAMA We asked: If Hillary Clinton becomes the next President, would she perform better than Obama, worse or just as well? If Donald Trump becomes the next President, would he perform better than Obama, worse or just as well? The World Responded.
SHADOW OF OBAMA IF ELECTED, WOULD HILLARY CLINTON / DONALD TRUMP PERFORM BETTER, SAME OR WORSE THAN OBAMA? BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NR 39% 30% 14% 17% 27% 21% 34% 18%
PERSONALITY POLITICS Does personality drive who the world would vote for?
PERSONALITY POLITICS THE IDEAL U.S. PRESIDENT? We asked: What words best describe the personality of the IDEAL U.S. President? The World Responded.
The WORLD believes that the personality of the IDEAL U.S. President is Diplomatic 38% Higher general mental capacity 27% Assertive 27% More intelligent 26% Confident 26% Open to change 26% Objective 23% Organized 23% Self-assured 21% Grounded 21% Dutiful 20% Attentive to others 20%
The U.S. believes that the personality of the IDEAL U.S. President is Confident 55% Organized 42% Mature 42% More intelligent 40% Diplomatic 39% Resourceful 39% Emotionally stable 39% Faces reality calmly 36% Assertive 36% Higher general mental capacity 36% Practical 35% Open to change 34% Self-assured 34% Objective 33% Grounded 33% Likes people 30%
PERSONALITY POLITICS THE IDEAL U.S. PRESIDENT? We asked: What words best describe the Personality of the Ideal U.S. President and what words best describe the personalities of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? The World Responded.
The WORLD perceives that the personalities of HILLARY CLINTON and DONALD TRUMP are very different Donald Trump Disregards rules 20% Rough 17% Stubborn 16% Rude 16% Emotionally less stable 15% Less intelligent 15% Uncontrolled 13% Lower general mental capacity 13% Uninhibited 12% Reactive emotionally 11% Careless of social rules 11% Impatient 11% Impersonal 11% Easily upset 9% Diplomatic -18% HILLARY CLINTON Hillary Clinton Traditional 5% Diplomatic 4% Mature 4% Assertive 4% Organized 4% Polished 3% Self-assured 3% Perfectionist 3% Lower general mental capacity -5% Emotionally less stable -5% Less intelligent -5% Uncontrolled -6% Rough -6% Disregards rules -7% Rude -8%
PERSONALITY POLITICS THE IDEAL U.S. PRESIDENT? We asked: The voters for Hillary Clinton what words best describe the candidates? The World Responded.
The voters for Hillary Clinton describe the personalities of the candidates : Perceptions of Hillary Clinton Perceptions of Donald Trump The World United States The World United States Higher general mental capacity Emotionally stable Emotionally less stable Diplomatic Grounded Impractical Steady Attentive to others Lower general mental capacity Open to change Lively Less intelligent Lower general mental capacity Unable to handle abstract thinking Unexacting Emotionally less stable Trusting Faces reality calmly Disregards rules Rude Perfectionist Practical Impatient Shy
PERSONALITY POLITICS THE IDEAL U.S. PRESIDENT? We asked: The voters for Donald Trump what words best describe the candidates? The World Responded.
The voters for Donald Trump describe the personalities of the candidates: Perceptions of Donald Trump Perceptions of Hillary Clinton The World United States The World United States Grounded More intelligent Impractical Uncontrolled Practical Steady Disregards rules Rude Likes people Perfectionist Objective Faces reality calmly Practical Higher general mental capacity Unable to handle abstract thinking Emotionally less stable Less intelligent Careless of social rules Emotionally less stable Unable to handle abstract thinking Steady Attentive to others Easily upset Disregards rules
POINTS TO PONDER 1. Mismatch between the Views of the American Public and the Global Public. 2. As the Global Public Looks to America as a Leader, the American Public looks away. 3. Globalization of Markets and Media fails to spill-over into globalization of political order. Instead it creates a backlash. 4. The backlash against globalization is bad news for our Industry, the knowledge industry. 5. In order to remove the mismatch between 3 types of globalization, opinion and marketing research should work hand in hand.
CONTACTS Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Gallup Pakistan gilani@gallup.com.pk Peter Kenny, Colmar Brunton peter.kenny@colmarbrunton.com Misha Raza, Project Coordinator misha.raza@gallup.com.pk Chiara Monetti, WIN Network coordinator chiara.monetti@wingia.com
THANK YOU!