PUBLIC OPINION
, THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES IDEOLOGY THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM (LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE SPECTRUM) VALENCE ISSUES WEDGE ISSUE SALIENCY What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time. A comprehensive and mutually consistent set of ideas. Liberal (democrats) is on the left side of the spectrum. Conservative (republicans) is on the right side of the spectrum. Moderate is somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. (Most Americans are moderate but often belong to one of the two major parties) Concerns or policies that are viewed in the same way by people with a variety of ideologies. (Examples: Everyone wants a strong economy and national security) Concerns or policies that sharply divide the public. (Examples: People often disagree on abortion and universal health care) If an issue is important to someone than it has high saliency. (Often found in wedge issues) POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES IDEOLOGY LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE LIBERTARIAN POPULIST PROGRESSIVE One of today's major ideologies. Originally under the influence of Thomas Jefferson who wanted a government to do very little. Under FDR s New Deal, the government took on a new responsibilities. Since the 1930 s liberal usually means allowing the government to expand beyond established constraints. One of today's major ideologies. Traditionally conservatives believe in following tradition and authority. Goldwater (1964 republican presidential nominee) argued that government should do less and thus allow its people more freedom. Less taxation and less government spending became its anthem. One of today's minor ideologies. They often oppose government intervention or regulation. It is a party but people in this ideology often belong to other parties. One of today's minor ideologies. They generally attend a Protestant church. They support things like prayer in school, high minimum wage, and welfare. One of today's minor ideologies. They split the republican party (peaked in early 1900 s). Today they believe in workers rights over corporate rights and support progressive taxes. Both parties occasionally go against their own ideology. Democrats adopt policies that are not very liberal in terms of personal liberty while Republicans adopt policies (like abortion) that require more regulation and law (not less). As a result both parties have sub groups within them.
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION FACTORS FAMILY EDUCATION RELIGION RACE & ETHNICITY LOCATION GENDER This is the single greatest influence on one s political socialization. When children start to inquire about world events or local issues it is the parents who explain it to their children and within this explanation comes the parents opinion on the issue. (10% of seniors identify with the party opposite of their parents) (60% of adults carry the same party identification as their parents) Teachers and peer groups can have a large impact. There is no evidence that obtaining high school diploma or a bachelor's degree will affect ideology. People that graduate with a masters degree or higher are more likely to vote for Democrats and hold liberal attitudes. (Average College faculty claim: 48% liberal; 14% conservative) People who attend church (nearly weekly) are more likely to vote on election day. Fundamentalists (believe in literal interpretation of the Holy Bible), Evangelical Christians (promote Christian faith), and Protestants are located primarily in the South and midwest and they vote conservative (republican). Catholics vote liberal (democrat). Jews (smallest portion of electorate) vote liberal (democrat). African Americans have voted for democrats since New Deal and even more since the Civil Rights Movement. Hispanics (55 65 percent) vote for democrats. Asians usually vote for republicans. Whites are more likely to vote for republicans. Northeast: liberal West coast: liberal West: conservative South: conservative Women: liberal (especially single women) Men: conservative (especially white men) 40% to 50% of Americans consider themselves moderate, 30% conservative, and about 20% liberal. Only 37% consider themselves strongly partisan. How do people determine their ideology? The answer is political socialization. Political Socialization: The process by which one develops political opinions. Other books also include: media, region, age, occupation, & wealth. Other books mention psychological factors: party identification, perception of candidates, & perception of issues
MEASURING AP AMERICAN GOVERNMENT STUDY GUIDE POLLS AKA: POLLING STRAW POLLS TRACKING POLLS EXIT POLLS FOCUS GROUPS APPROVAL RATINGS Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population. Newspapers use to conduct simple, non scientific tallies of selected voters to make predictions. (Since they were not scientific they were often wrong. People were like: uhhh is there something more reliable?) Researchers ask people the same or similar questions over time to track the path of public opinion. They are conducted outside of polling places on election day to predict the outcome of an election. Small groups of citizens (10 to 40 people) gather to hold conversations about issues or candidates. These are used for candidates to determine how to change their image for elections. (Example: People told Mitt Romney to wear more jeans) Researchers simply ask whether or not the respondent approves, yes or no of the president s job performance. Presidents usually hover at 50%. They can go up when the country finds itself in crisis. Truman s went up after he dropped the atomic bomb and George W. Bush s went up after 9/11 (Bush also had 29% when he was leaving office, which is really low) The most accurate way to measure public opinion is through scientific polling. The next page discusses this in detail.
MEASURING WITH SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY Construct a questionnaire with properly worded and ordered questions Select a representative sample Correctly interview the respondents Analyze the data appropriately Draw the correct conclusions Questions should be neutral and should not lead people to a certain answer. (Example of a bad question: Don t you think we should get rid of welfare so those lazy people can take care of themselves?) Define Universe : Who is in the group you wish to measure. (Example: All citizens or girls that age 13 19) Random Sampling : This method gives everyone in your defined universe the same chance of being selected. Stratified Sampling : Most national surveys and commercial polls use samples of 600 to 1,000 individuals and use stratified sampling which is a variation on random sampling. This included using information from the Census that rules out those unlikely to vote, breaking the country into 4 regions and counties and metropolitan areas that are in proportion to the total national population. They break into units and each unit gets 20 people selected. The interviewer contacts and interacts with the respondent can impact a pool. People are more honest on paper than when they are on the phone or in person. People could skew that data to meet their own selfish goals. (Some people.they are the worst) Perhaps the end result does not show convey people s true feelings. (Which was the entire point) SHORTCOMINGS OF POLLING Margin of error : All polls contain errors. Typically in a sample of 1,000 the margin of error is 4 percent. So if the result is 52 to 48 you can add or minus 4 to each number. So once you add the margin of error you see the race is too close to call. Sampling error : If parts of the universe are not questioned the whole poll could be skewed. Homeless are hard to find, but they can vote. Limited respondent options : If you answer agree or disagree you complex views may not be recorded. Lack of information : People answering may have no knowledge/ and or opinion of the subject being surveyed. So what good is that? Difficulty measuring intensity : Respondents opinions may not have been expressed. Scientific polling (often referred to as polling) is the most accurate way to determine public opinion despite all its shortcomings. The media uses polls often during an election and they start sounding like a horse race announcer. They often focus on who is winning instead of showing what the candidates are actually saying about these issues.