CoP 101: An Informal Newcomers Guide to the UNFCCC Climate Change Meeting Process UN FCCC: COP 18/CMP 8 Norine Kennedy Doha CoP 18, CMP 8 Brian Flannery December 4, 2012 Nick Campbell 1
Background and History: UNFCCC & COP Process 2
Role of Business Business is a recognized constituency or major group Individuals register as members of an accredited business organization Who is Business and Industry? Wide range of groups: members, organizations, objectives We are known as the Business and Industry NGOs or BINGOS We are observing NOT negotiating Organizations speak only for their members Occasionally business will develop consensus statements Demeanor, protocols for interactions: Realize that delegations positions formed in capitols; Expect to interact with Delegates, NGOs, IGOs, Press of all kinds + Statements, Interventions, submissions + Corridor conversation and sidebars Undertake Informal processes to prepare business interventions and consensus statements All Constituencies have a focal point to interface with the Secretariat and the process: For Business, ICC is the focal point, through Andrea Bacher 3
Background: UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: One of several agreements signed at Rio 1992 Establishes international framework to address climate change Formal and informal links/relations to many other treaties, processes Importance to government, business, labor, farmers, NGOs : Process affects not just environment... but also economy, trade, investment, employment, energy, agriculture, land use, technology,... Decisions influence and set precedents in other settings, treaties Agreements require national/regional implementation: legislation, regulation, communications (e.g. National reports, EU-ETS,...) Agreements establish Kyoto Mechanisms: Emissions Trading, CDM, JI Implementation requires significant finance, wealth transfer 4
Major Climate Change Institutions United Nations UNEP WMO IPCC UNFCCC GEF Assessment Convention Finance IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1988) Scientific, technical & socio-economic assessments Methodologies, e.g. National emissions inventories, Land use change Special Reports: CCS, Aviation, Renewable Energy, GEF: Global Environment Facility (1991) - Financial mechanism for several environmental conventions UNFCCC: Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) Political negotiations, treaty implementation Conference of Parties: supreme body of UNFCCC 5
UNFCCC & KP Permanent Structure Conference of Parties (COP) Secretariat Kyoto Protocol (CMP) Secretariat 2012-13 Budget: ~ 30 M$/yr Staff: ~150 staff Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) JI SC CDM EB Compliance All (ratifying) Parties participate in COP, CMP, SBSTA, SBI. Each elects a Bureau with representatives from the 5 UN regional groups + AOSIS to facilitate work Appointees from developed and developing Parties oversee committees and boards 6
Ongoing Evolving Work Plan & Structure The UNFCCC structure and program are not static ongoing activity Permanent, standing committees SBSTA: Technology & Technology Transfer, Education and Outreach, Observation, CCS, New Gases, LULUCF, REDD, Nairobi Work Program on Adaptation, Interfaces to: IPCC SBI: Reporting & Review, Adequacy of Commitments, Capacity Building, Financial Mechanisms, Budgets, Meetings, Relations with observer constituencies Ad hoc negotiating committees AWG-KP AWG-LCA ADP (Kyoto Protocol) (Long-term Co-operative Action) (Durban Platform 2020 Agreement) New Institutions Technology Mechanism (TEC, CTC&N), Green Climate Fund, Adaptation... Durban called for many actions and decisions to be taken at (or before) COP 18, CMP 8 7
Bali Negotiations (2007 ) Major Drivers Expiration of 1 st Kyoto commitment period in 2012 Desire to enunciate long-term global goal to avoid dangerous impacts Recognition of need to engage all major economies Continuation of CDM and carbon markets Desire to mainstream adaptation Collective wish to mobilize efforts to protect forests Agreement posed far greater challenges than Kyoto (expectations/aspirations in lead up discussions): Developed nations to cut emissions 25-40% below 1990 by 2020 Significant commitments for developing countries Scale of funding: ~100s B$/yr each for adaptation and mitigation Expectations raised for significant emissions reductions and aid 8
Two Track Negotiations & Bali Action Plan (2007) UNFCCC (COP) Kyoto Protocol (CMP) Bali Negotiations: Post 2012 Framework AWG-KP New Targets Annex 1 (2013-20xx) AWG-LCA Long-term Cooperative Action (under UNFCCC by all Parties) Original deadline (COP 15, 2009) missed Process ongoing to complete or transform negotiations 9
Recent History: Bali to Doha 10
Bali to Cancun to Durban & 2012 Copenhagen (2009) Failure to complete Bali mandate Copenhagen Accord agreed in a political process outside COP Rancor and concern for integrity and future of international process Cancun (2010) Mexican Presidency made strong effort to re-establish formal process Agreements materially advanced implementation of Copenhagen Accord Little progress on other aspects of Bali Mandate (many of major interest to developing nations) Durban (2011) Further implementation and operationalization of Copenhagen Accord Process and mandate to sunset AWG-KP, AWG-LCA at COP 18, CMP 8 Creates Durban Platform to negotiate a comprehensive 2020 agreement Launch and startup of new institutions Green Climate Fund Technology Mechanism: TEC, CTC&N 11
Durban Outcomes & Next steps AWG-KP: Authorizes 2 nd KP period 2013 xxxx (TBD: 2017 or 2020) Aim to agree Amendment(s), including targets, to be adopted at CMP 8 If so, AWG-KP concludes AWG-LCA: Agree to incorporate (in different ways) emissions commitments by developed and developed nations and procedures for reports and reviews Progress operationalizing REDD+, Adaption, Finance and Technology If essential work complete, AWG-LCA concludes Disagreement on remaining work (Bali, Copenhagen) and handoff to ADP Establishes a new Ad Hoc Working Group (ADP) To develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all parties Process starts 2012, finishes by 2015, effective from 2020 Ambitious work program; outcomes hostage to balanced progress in all three, and agreement on what must be complete 12
Durban: Unresolved Political Issues Fate of Kyoto Protocol (Absent: Canada, Japan, Russia, USA) Long term: in parallel with, or a transition to ADP outcome Co-functioning of KP and new new LCA/ADP processes (NAMAs, Offsets ) Ambition of national emissions pledges Inadequacy of pledges to achieve 2 C goal Date for global emissions to peak; target level in 2050 Sources and uses of funds (mobilize 100 B$/yr by 2020) Matching funds to supported NAMAs Funding after completion of Fast Start Finance (2012) IPR (off the agenda in Cancun now back on) Legal form and timing of ultimate long-term agreement Growing gap between statements of political aspirations and actual policies and trends 13
Challenges to Negotiators Major differences on key political issues Multiple, linked, well established deadlocks Involving different subsets of nations (not just developed vs developing, and EU vs non-eu) Complex Process Standing Bodies and AWGs operate under agreed legal mandates Multiple overlapping agenda items and cross-cutting issues Agreed limits on simultaneous meetings Too little time for the complexity of the agenda Opportunities to use process to delay unfavorable outcomes Need for balanced progress to conclude all important items as a package Requirement for decisions by consensus Ongoing financial crisis Major role of Presidency (past and present) shaping agenda, pursuing informal negotiations that address overlaps, developing consensus 14
Other Contentious or Polarizing Issues Intellectual Property Rights Equitable Access to Sustainable Development Global emissions: date to peak; level in 2050 Impact of Response Measures (Forum, or agenda) International Review process for developing nations reports New Market mechanisms, sectoral approaches Mitigation: target or pledge, especially in LCA/ADP Matching funds to supported NAMAs Loss and Damage and Historical Responsibility Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) 15
Challenge to Agreement and Implementation A business perspective diverse, interlocked impacts with multiple winners and losers: within sectors, between sectors, between nations Responding appropriately to the risks and impacts of climate change Differentiated national obligations and policies Policies to preserve competitiveness Trade, border adjustments Offsets: eligibility and scale Competitiveness implications of wealth transfers Treatment of state-run vs private companies Integrity and efficiency of MRV and compliance procedures Calls to relax Intellectual Property Rights Stakeholder roles in advisory processes to new institutions Others may agree with this list or highlight different matters Because these are important to business, they are relevant 16
Process at a Conference of the Parties (COP 18, CMP 8) 17
Doha COP 18, CMP 8: 7 Meetings not 1 Ongoing mandated business of: Conference of Parties: COP Conference Meeting as Parties to the Kyoto Protocol: CMP Subsidiary Bodies: SBSTA, SBI Negotiating Groups: AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, ADP Each has their own legal mandate and procedures Significant overlap and linkage in agenda Parties insist on balanced progress: all cross finish line together External focus will be on progress of three-track negotiation Conclude and handoff AWG-KP, AWG-LCA issues Progress of ADP Other important matters Finance Progress startup of new institutions Definition of work programs Major role of Presidency (past and present) shaping agenda, pursuing informal negotiations that address overlaps, developing consensus 18
Typical 2 week timeline Week 1 Week 2 Opening Plenaries Approve agenda, Opening Statements Informals Agree text or Not SBs and AWGs Agenda and statements Contact Groups Develop Proposed Text AWGs/SBs If agreed High Level Session Friends of Chair If not Informal Groups Negotiations Final Plenary Approve decisions 19
Typical Progress of an Agenda Item In appropriate opening plenary (COP, CMP, SBs, AWGs) Seek approval of agenda (often contentious) Views expressed by Groups of Parties Items assigned to existing or new Contact Groups ( ~70 in all) Contact groups usually open to observers (unless objection) Controversial items move to Informals Often closed to observers Enormous logistical challenge to schedule meeting space & time Proposed agreed text submitted to plenary for discussion and approval at next level, e.g. recommended COP/CMP decisions Including at times options for consideration Otherwise, deferred or left to ministers Challenge of linked negotiations in separate bodies, agenda items taken hostage, need for balanced package of outcomes 20
Participants Parties and Groups of Parties (Pink Badges) Countries (some delegations include ENGOs and Business), EU Groups: G77 (actually 132) & China, EU, JUSCANZ, Umbrella Group, African Group, AOSIS (SIDS), LDCs, Environmental Integrity Group Secretariat (Blue Badges) Including Consultants Intergovernmental Organizations (also Blue Badges) IEA, OECD, OPEC, IPCC, ICAO, IMO, WMO,... Observer Organizations (Yellow Badges) ENGOs, BINGOS, RINGOS, Local Authorities, Indigenous Peoples, TUNGOs, YOUNGOs, Farmers, Gender Press (Orange Badges) Security (Uniforms) UN Zone inside complex Essential to consider logistics of managing tens of thousands of participants, many without prior experience 21
Negotiating groups G-77 & China AOSIS LDCs EU Umbrella Group Environmental Integrity Group UN regional groups Many, many more since Cancun Provided an opportunity to voice group views in plenaries, and a role in contact groups on issues of concern 22
Documents Types of Documents UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Bali Action Plan, most recent negotiating text: Keep copies with you Daily Programme and CC TV: Keep checking the monitors Official Labels: FCCC/KP/CMP/2006/1 COP, CMP, KP, SBSTA, SBI, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA Misc, Inf. Updates and revisions :.Rev,.Cor,.Add 1 At the session: (Final vs draft decisions) non papers, CRP, L Documents... [text in brackets] Online & Real-time: UNFCCC App and Site, CC TV Unofficial: ENB (also online), ECO, TWN, Flyers, sidebars, Group stands (Hall 4) 23
Keeping Current During the COP/CMP Dynamic and external scrutiny shifts completely in 2 nd week with arrival of High Level Ministers Formal and informal briefing sessions for Parties and briefings for observers and press by Officers of negotiating and standing bodies, Presidency, Secretariat Example: AWG-LCA Stock Taking for Parties, open to observers Presidency-run process for cross-cutting and political dialogue outside the formal agenda (South Africa: Indaba process) Difficult to understand progress during the week, ministers and press may have very different expectations than negotiators 24
Making decisions COP rules of procedure never formally adopted > applied on a provisional basis Voting rule for substantive issues (Rule 42) is bracketed in the rules of procedure > COP decisions require consensus Consensus means absence of formal objection Cancun: Mexican president ruled that, within the UNFCCC process, practice has been established that a single country can t block consensus 25
After Doha Process for 2 nd KP period to take effect (and what is next) Or ongoing negotiation of KP LCA (?) to continue, or sunset with handoff of some issues Anticipate lengthy follow-on ADP negotiations (2015?) Continued effort for an ultimate (legally binding?) agreement Continuing discussion of procedures and outcomes: + Ambition and Numbers for Finance and Mitigation + Offsets, especially forest and land use + New institutions for finance, technology, adaptation + Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) + Actions in developing nations, new mechanisms Ongoing roles for multiple bilateral, multilateral dialogs: Major Economies Forum, engagement of IEA, World Bank, 26
Thank You & Discussion 27