The current situation in the Ukrainian society

The current situation in the Ukrainian society May 2015 Natalya Kharchenko, Executive Director of KIIS nkh@kiis.com.ua Volodymyr Paniotto, General Director of KIIS paniotto@kmis.kiev.ua

KIIS info Plan Level of well-being Tolerance Trust Linguistic-ethnic groups The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine Independence of Ukraine Attitude to the EU, NATO, the Customs Union Euromaidan Propaganda Situation in the Donbas Migration Volunteering 2

KIIS info Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) - is one of the leading private research organizations in Ukraine (more than 20 years of experience). KIIS is working closely with the National University of "Kyiv Mohyla Academy. KIIS has extensive experience in projects of qualitative and quantitative research. We implement about 100 projects of varying difficulty every year. THE COMPANY ORGANIZATION: KIIS has a small permanent scientific and administrative staff, and temporary research groups that are created when needed. The staff includes 37 permanent and 600 part -time workers (CATI interviewers, moderators of focus groups, regional supervisors, interviewers). MOTTO: REPUTATION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PROFIT 3

Regional composition The presentation mainly used the following regional division. Exclusion is marked specially. West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts; Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasi oblasts and the city Kyiv; South - Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts; East - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv oblasts, Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (only the territory controlled by the authorities of Ukraine). 4

Level of well-being

SELF-ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATUS Approach that KIIS has used for many years is self-assessment of the financial status of respondents. The question is phrased as follows: The respondents are to define their financial status themselves according to the following scale: We do not even have enough money to eat We have enough money to eat, but it is hard to buy clothing and shoes We have enough money for food and clothing and we can set something aside, but it is not enough to buy expensive items (such as a refrigerator or television) We can permit ourselves to buy some expensive items (such as a television or refrigerator), but not everything we want We can permit ourselves everything we want 6

Subjective well-being 1994-2015 We do not even have enough money for food, % 60 50 51.7 47.2 40 30 20 17.8 16.8 18.7 10 0 11.4 8.7 KIIS national monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years. 7

We measure the percentage of people who consider that they don t have enough money for food, since 1994. For 10 years, from 1998 to 2008, the poverty rate fell from 52% to 12%, and this is one of the few, but important achievements of Ukraine. After the global crisis, in 2008, the poverty rate increased and then fell to 9%. Now the poverty rate is increasing again. 8

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES Ukraine Center What do you think, over next year how will the economy of Ukraine change? will be much or somewhat worse will be much or somewhat better West South East 52 64 63 74 72 will be the same Hard to say 24 17 17 10 13 13 10 12 6 7 10 11 8 8 10 ЧАСТИНА І. «ЕКОНОМІЧНІ» ОЧІКУВАННЯ НАСЕЛЕННЯ І РІВЕНЬ ЗАДОВОЛЕНОСТІ ЖИТТЯМ Donbass 75 11 1 13 KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES Ukraine West Center South East Donbass What do you think, over next 5 years how will the economy of Ukraine change? will be much or somewhat worse will be much or somewhat better 18 19 23 27 29 39 10 9 11 16 11 14 15 will be the same Hard to say 52 51 42 30 29 46 27 23 20 21 18 ЧАСТИНА І. «ЕКОНОМІЧНІ» ОЧІКУВАННЯ НАСЕЛЕННЯ І РІВЕНЬ ЗАДОВОЛЕНОСТІ ЖИТТЯМ KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

REFORMS IN UKRAINE According to the research of KIIS in the spring of 2015, almost none of the Ukrainians has experienced the positive results of reforms, but the majority felt their negative consequences. Every fourth Ukrainian agrees to suffer from reforms if it will lead to prosperity of the country. However, almost half of the citizens do not want to suffer from reforms for Ukraine's success. They believe that reforms will not change anything. In addition, their lives are already difficult enough and they are not ready to bear additional losses. The highest priority task for Ukraine, according to the views of the citizens, - fight against corruption and withdrawal from economic crisis. 11

Tolerance

The Bogardus Scale I AGREE TO ACCEPT REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NATIONAL GROUPS AS... family members... 1 close friends... 2 neighbors... 3 colleagues... 4 residents of Ukraine... 5 Ukraine guests... 6 would not allow in Ukraine. 7 Americans 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Belarusians 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jews 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 And so on, total - 13 groups 13

The xenophobia index 1994-2014 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years 14

The level of xenophobia is measured by Bogardus social distance scale, index xenophobia is the average of social distances from Ukraine population to 13 ethnic groups. For a long time it grew up and now it is stabilized. From 1994 to 2001 the level of xenophobia was growing due to spread of poverty, it was consistent with the scapegoat«theory. Then the level of xenophobia decreased but the media effect of 11 September 2001 tragedy increased distrust of foreigners, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq contributed to the development of xenophobia. Another factor is the elections which emphasized ethnic differences. 15

The xenophobia index All Ukraine 7 September 2013 October 2014 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 2013-2014 years 16

The xenophobia index Despite of the Maidan, war, high levels of migration and the deterioration of living conditions, the average index of xenophobia is not increased but even decreased a little (from 4.15 to 4.01). As for certain ethnic groups, it can be noticed that the attitude to Russian worsened and the attitude to Crimean Tatars somehow improved. 17

Interethnic relations in the conflict zone Comparison of East under control of Ukraine and Occupied Donbas (10.2014) East under control of Ukraine (Kharkiv oblast + partially Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) Occupied Donbas 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 KIIS opinion poll, 18+, F2F, October 2014, East- N= 320, and Occupied Donbas - N = 142 18

Trust

Trust in politician (0:10) Political trust and income 5 Denmark Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Norway 4 3 Finland Belgium Estonia Cyprus United Kingdom Germany France Russia Hungary Ireland Israel Slovakia Poland Spain Czech Republic 2 Ukraine Bulgaria Croatia Portugal Slovenia Greece 1 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Per capita GDP (PPP) 20

Trust is one of the key concepts of democracy and market theories. Trust contributes consolidation of the public and the creation of communities in public sector, and it accelerates cooperation and interpersonal exchange in the economic sphere. The higher level of trust in society, the higher indicators of economic growth and investment in its economy and vice versa. Low trust reduces the ability of people to enter into a relationship, the ability to negotiate and to conclude agreements, prevents the spread of innovation and technology. According to European comparative studies, GDP per capita and the level of political trust correlated: the higher the GDP, the higher the trust, and Vice versa, the high level of trust gives the opportunity to achieve high GDP (deviations - such as Greece - there are not very often). Unfortunately, Ukraine is among countries which take one of the last places on the trust and the last place on the GDP. 21

Dynamic of trust to the President of Ukraine 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0-80.0-100.0 May, 2000 Sept, 2004 March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct, 2009 March 2010 Feb, 2012 Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015 KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years 22

Personalized dynamics of trust to the President 60.0 Kuchma the balance of trust-distrust 50.0 Yanukovych the balance of trust-distrust 10.0-40.0 May, 2000 Sept, 2004 0.0 March 2010 Feb, 2012 Nov, 2013 March 2014-90.0-50.0-100.0 50.0 0.0-50.0 Yushchenko the balance of trust-distrust March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct 2009 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0 Poroshenko the balance of trust-distrust Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015 KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years 23

Trust to the social institutions Trust, % Distrust, % Balance trust-distrust Army 76 16 60 President 68 24 44 Church 55 18 37 Ukrainian massmedia 37 35 2 Government 39 51-12 Militia 29 63-34 Parliament 20 74-54 Russian massmedia 7 77-70 2012 KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2000, 2012-2014 years 2014 Trust, % Distrust, % Balance Trustdistrust Church 62 17 45 Mass-media 41 28 12 Non-government 27 29-2 organizations Army 34 37-2 Opposition 24 53-29 President 22 66-44 Militia 16 63-47 Government 16 69-53 Parlament 12 73-61 24 24

Linguistic-ethnic groups

Census 2001: Ukrainians 78%, Russians 17%, other 5% KIIS uses more detailed scale I consider myself... 1) only Ukrainian 2) Ukrainian and Russian but more Ukrainian 3) equally Ukrainian and Russian 4) Russian and Ukrainian but more Russian 5) only Russian 26

Bi-ethnic group, October 2014 Language preferences Ukrainian language Russian language Total 1)Only Ukrainian 66,0 34,0 100,0 2) Ukrainian and Russian 10,2 89,8 100,0 3) Only Russian 2,0 98,0 100,0 KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2025, October 2014 27

The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to Ukraine

Do you agree with the statement that there is a war between Russia and Ukraine? No - 57% No - 59% Yes-% 70 Yes -34% DS - 9% Yes - 26% DS -15% No - 19% DS - 10% April 2014 August 2014 September 2014 Опитування ГД КМІС в Україні і Левада-Центру у Росії, 2014р.

100 90 Dynamics of the positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and of Russians towards Ukraine % of persons of Ukraine with positive attitude to Russia and % of persons of Russia with positive attitude to Ukraine 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 In Ukraine to Russia KIIS poll in Ukraine and Levada-Center in Russia, 2008-2015 years In Russia to Ukraine 30

Dynamics of positive attitudes to V. Putin and Ukraine 95 Approve of Vladimir Putin Good attitude towards Ukraine Euromaidan Annexation of Crimea Donbas conflict 85 75 65 55 45 35 Shot down Tu-154 over the Black Sea Orange revolution Active phase of 25 2nd Chechen war 15 Tuzla conflict Worsening of Russian- Georgian relations Russian- Georgian war Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 Levada-Center polls in Russia, 2000-2015 years

Regional differentiation in the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia, the Russians and the Russian government % of adults in Ukraine with positive or very positive attitude to To Russia To Russians to the Russian leadership 100 91 90 80 70 66 63 59 81 83 69 74 60 50 48 40 30 20 25 32 16 21 10 2 3 0 West Central South East Whole Ukraine Regional composition: West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts; Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chercasi, Chernihiv oblasts and the city Kyiv; South - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts; East - Donetsk, Kharkiv oblasts. We have no possibility to conduct survey in Lugansk region at this time. KIIS Omnibus,18+, F2F, n=2035, September 2014.

Values Most Closely Associated with Ukrainian Way of Life When you think of the Ukrainian way of life, do you associate it more closely with Western values or with Russian values? (n=2,039) Differences by Region East 51 R 9 W 11 B North 25 R 25 W 6 B Center 37 R 26 W 6 B South 44 R 12 W 14 B West 7 R 53 W 18 B IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014,, F2F, National poll, n=2039

Values Ukraine shares with Russia/West What values does Ukraine share with the West? (n=499) Rights and freedoms Democracy 28% 27% Rule of law Respectful of people Economic devp. Social protection, services Stability Respect for traditions Independent, patriotic Peaceful Other DK/NR 14% 14% 12% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 13% 16% IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014,, F2F, National poll, n=2039

Independence of Ukraine

Indicator What would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia? 1. Relations of Ukraine with Russia should be like with other states - with closed borders, visas and customs 2. Ukraine and Russia should be independent, however, friendly countries - with open borders, without visas and customs 3. Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state 1+2 support of independence

How would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?(%) They should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs 46 2 7 45 Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should be united in one country Difficult to answer KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2022, May 2015

How would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?(%) May 2013 May 2015 69 45 46 11 14 2 They should be like with other states - with closed borders, visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent, however, friendly countries - with open borders, without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030 KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022 38

Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state?(%) by Regions May 2013 May 2015 28 24 20 3 8 1 1 2 6 West Center South East Crimea KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030 KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022

100% 90% 80% Dynamic of Ukraine s independence support (independence supporters per cent among the all adults Chechen wars of Russia Russia s advance toward Touzla Russia s intrusion into Georgia Annexion of the Crimea 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 01.91 01.92 01.93 01.94 01.95 01.96 01.97 01.98 01.99 01.00 01.01 01.02 01.03 01.04 01.05 01.06 01.07 01.08 01.09 01.10 01.11 01.12 01.13 01.14 01.15 KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1991-2015 years

The level of support of independence of Ukraine has considerably increased, but it partly related to 1) The lack of voters in Crimea 2) With the problems in research in areas that are not controlled by Ukraine

Attitude to the EU, NATO, the Customs Union

FOREIGN POLICY COURSE OF UKRAINE What integration direction Ukraine should go? Accession to the Customs Union Whole Ukraine West Center South East 3 5 Accession to the European Union 11 22 19 56 51 32 74 32 Nonalignment neither to the European Union not to the Custom Union 31 33 25 25 15 13 14 15 16 9 Hard to say/ No answers ЧАСТИНА II. ЗОВНІШНЬОПОЛІТИЧНІ ОРІЄНТАЦІЇ Donbass 28 28 24 20 KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

Accession to NATO membership Please imagine that referendum on whether Ukraine must join NATO is taking place now. You can vote for joining the union, oppose or abstain - not to participate in voting. What is your choice? Against accession Whole Ukraine West Center South East For accession 15 28 33 50 55 I will not vote 63 47 43 26 25 10 5 9 13 14 Hard to say/no answers 14 17 15 12 6 ЧАСТИНА II. ЗОВНІШНЬОПОЛІТИЧНІ ОРІЄНТАЦІЇ Donbass 51 26 12 11 KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

Euromaidan

The Euromaidan is a starting point for the modern history of Ukraine. Research on the Maidan, which was held by KIIS and Fund "DIF, shows invalidity of somemyths that are still used in the information war. In particular, it shows that the vast majority of participants (80-90%) took part in protest independently and wasn t organized by parties or public organizations. 46

December 8, 2013

Three polls on the Maidan Polls: 1) December, 7-8, weekend, Maidan-meeting 2) December, 20, Maidan-camp 3) February, 3, weekdays, Maidan-Sich (analog of Zaporizhzhya Sich)

Three pools on the Maidan Where are you from? Maidan-meeting December, 7-8, 2014 Мaidan-camp December, 20, 2014 Мaidan-Sich February, 3, 2014 From Kiev 49,8 19,3 12.4 From the province 50,2 80,7 87.6 If you arrived, was it is organized or you arrived yourself? Maidanmeeting Maidancamp Maidan- Sich It is organized by one of the parties 1,8 11,9 3.0 It is organized by one of the public 6,3 11,9 13.3 organizations (movements) I arrived himself 91,9 76,1 83.5

Propaganda

Trust to TV news The way the propaganda works Why did Malaysian plane crash on July 2014 in eastern Ukraine? Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/26/russian-and-ukrainian-tvviewers-live-on-different-planets/

Information war against Ukraine Information component of a hybrid war against Ukraine is no less powerful mean of influence than traditional weapon. It gave the opportunity to annex the Crimea, provoked the armed conflict in the Donbas and provided support the actions of Russia and pro-russian forces in some regions of the country. The logical chain of Russian propaganda: The protests on the Maidan in the winter of 2013-2014 were organized by the Americans and the radical nationalists; As a result, the nationalists seized the power and now threaten the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine which lives mainly in the South and the East; Crimea was in danger but voluntarily joined to Russia and was saved from the repression of the nationalists; Donbas rebelled and is now fighting for independence; The conflict in Ukraine is a civil war of criminal power of the nationalists against average citizens.

The most supported propaganda statements in Russia Data of surveys of Russian Levada-Center, September 2014- May 2015 years: Do you agree or disagree that as a result of Kiev Maidan in February the state upheaval happened? Data for Russia Agree 83 Disagree 10 What is your attitude toward United States of America? Favorable 12 Unfavorable 81 Do you support joining of Crimea to Russia? Yes 84 No 7

Support of pro-russian point of view Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2013 Trust to Russian mass-media Attitude to Maidan Trust 80 Do not trust People's protest Nationalist, anti-russian forces' struggle 9 26 60 61 23 41 33 All Ukraine Donbas Attitude to USA Favorable Unfavorable Joining of Crimea to Russia Support All Ukraine Do not support Donbas ATO is a punitive action against civilians Agree Disagree 81 59 22 29 42 11 27 57 19 62 38 35 All Ukraine Donbas All Ukraine Donbas All Ukraine Donbas

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in different regions of Ukraine Index of effectiveness of Russian propaganda (IERP) is based on 5 variables: negative perception of Maidan-2014, negative attitude to USA, support of Crimea annexation, disapproval of anti-terrorist operation of Ukrainian army, trust to Russian mass-media. If IERP equals 100, it means that every person support all 5 statements; 0 means that nobody support any. Eastern and Southern Ukraine are the most receptive regions. These regions are predominantly Russian-speaking and traditionally vote for pro- Russian politicians and parties. Presently the population of these regions is a main target of both propaganda and intimidation by acts of terrorism.

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in different regions of Ukraine For calculation of Index of effectiveness of Russian propaganda (IERP) the data of recent KIIS Omnibus survey (all population 18+ except Crimea) were used. Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 13-24, 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2013

Situation in the Donbas

Humanitarian Aid Needs Monitoring The project estimated the humanitarian aid needs of community residents in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The research was initiated and conducted on demand of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center and Dopomozhemo TV. Surveys were conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) applying the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method (CATI). Respondents at the age 18 years and over were interviewed. Sample size: about 2100 respondents from 26-29 most needing communities in Donbas (Sometimes it was not possible to hold the survey in some settlements due to telephone communications failure). According to the September 2014 survey results communities were classified, joining under one class if having similar aid needs structure (hierarchical cluster analysis method applied). Such an analysis made it possible to distinguish a group of communities, the residents of which are in the most aid need, and focus the further needs research on those particularly. In the inquiries, held from October, 2014 to March, 2015, the current resident needs in foodstuff, medical supplies and non-grocery goods were investigated, as well as the work of medical and educational facilities, communications status. 59

Geography of survey 60

Situation Changes in the Community In comparison with November-December 2014, the perception of the situation has significantly improved. How has the situation in you community changed over the past week? September 3% 8% 35% 3% October 4% 9% 32% 3% November 16% 21% 15% 3% December 7% 18% 16% 1% Slightly better Significantly better March 3% 11% 32% 6% Slightly worse Significantly worse 14% 38% KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years. 61

Basic Needs The deficit of medical supplies and household goods decreased, but the situation with food products remains difficult. % of population lacking 58 March December 45 45 50 38 34 food products medical supplies household goods KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Real-life Situation Estimation In March 2015 the number of people, estimating the situation as bearable ( life is hard, but bearable ) has increased by 15% comparably with December,2014. Which of the statements is most relevant to current situation? December March 63 % settlement s adults 48 43 30 5 7 4 1 Not so bad, you can live on Life is hard, but bearable Not possible to bear our misery Hard to say KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Stressful Situations across the Year Stressful situations % of references Experience bombing 80 Feeling helpless 57 Turn out to be without means of living 47 Experiencing severe illness of relatives 24 Experiencing severe illness, surgery 22 Loss of one's work, becoming forcedly unemployed 21 Loss of one's self-belief 20 Loss of belief in mankind, encounter with meanness 16 Experiencing death of relatives 12 Serious conflicts with others 5 Exposure to threats, intimidation 3 Being a victim of abuse or robbery 2 Being a victim of theft or fraud practices 2 Living in close to suicide state 1 Experiencing other stressful situations 47 There was no stressful situations 56 KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014.

Migration

Assessment of the Level of Migration: Methodology Usual surveys do not allow us to estimate the number of those who left - because if the whole family left, it does not fall into the sample. In addition, the size of our sample is small, and the evaluation of migration would be possible only for the region as a whole. The idea is to look for those who left through social networks: we carry out a normal random sample and ask a respondent to select five the closest families and tell who left, and who remained. This allows us to: To obtain information about the families all the members of which left; To increase the effective sample size (in particular, in 3 rd wave we interviewed 700 respondents and received information about 5,200 residents of the towns included in the sample).

Fragment of the Questionnaire And now several unusual questions. Please, make a list of five your closest friends, who constantly live in [NAME THE TOWN] or have lived there in January this year. These should be people from different families. We will not ask who they are or their relation to you. WAIT UNTIL THE LISTS ARE READY. We have only 3 questions on each of them: Does this person continue to live in the town now or has left? If he(she) left, did he(she) went by him(her)self or with someone from his(her) family? left? How many people were in the family and how many of them have Family Number of the family members Number of those who left 1 2 3 4 5

Migration Rates 32% 30% 27% 23% October November December March KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Migration According to the Ministry of Social Policy (May 21, 2015) in Ukraine there were almost there were almost 1,3 million internally displaced persons. Most of them were registered in the areas around the conflict zone, in Kiev and Kiev region. According to the operative data of the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine (May 31, 2015) nearly 874 thousand people moved. Data of different institutions can differ due to those people that live on the occupied territories but registered as internally displaced persons in the Ukrainian localities in order to receive social payments. 69

Оригінал: http://unhcr.org.ua/attachments/article/1244/map47.jpg 70

Characteristics of the internally displaced persons Disproportionate number of women, children and people of retirement age compared to the average data in Ukraine; Only about 9% of registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) indicated that they need work (~58% of the estimated economically active able-bodied IDPs); One of the main reasons why immigrants rejected from finding work - the belief that their situation is temporary and they will go to home in the near future. Other reasons caring for sick person, unwillingness to break the previous employment relationship, postponement looking for a job; Among internally displaced persons who applied to the State employment service, higher proportion of well-educated persons and professionals than among registered unemployed in Ukraine in general. 71

Migration plans December March No No 82 15 0 1 1 Yes, I would like to, but I can't Yes, I'm going to leave until summer Yes, I'm going to leave, but don't know when Hard to say 89 6 1 3 Yes, I would like to, but I can't Yes, I'm going to leave until summer Yes, I'm going to leave, but don't know when Hard to say Please tell me where you or your family members are going to move? In another region of Ukraine 42% In Russia 30% In other place within Donbas 5% In Crimea 1% Europe, USA, Canada 5% Hard to say 17% KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014- March, 2015. 72

When will the conflict in Donbas be over? What do You think, when the conflict in Donbas will be over? It will happen in... Нескольких Couple of месяцев months Следующего Next года year 18% 22% 40% of respondents think, that the conflict will be over within a year Через 2-3 года 2-3 years 9% Через 4-5 лет 4-5 years Затянется боле чем на 5 лет Will last more, then 5 years Никогда Never Не знаю 3% 2% 3% 44% I don t know KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center, n=2100, December, 2014. 73

60 Should we try to find the compromise with Russia and the leaders DNR and LNR for peace in Donbas? 55 79% 50 40 51% Ukraine Donbas 30 28 23 24 24 20 14 16 10 5 9 1 0 Peace at any cost, it is necessary to accept any compromises For peace it is necessary to accept serious compromises - but not all Some compromise is acceptable, but not any serious concessions No concessions at all, even if you have a war Difficalt to say National poll KIIS -DI, n=2035, September 2014 74

Public opinion on Minsk agreement Large majorities in all regions approve Minsk agreement. In Donbas, both rebelheld areas and Ukrainian-controlled territories support Minsk solution of the conflict. Approve Disapprove Nation 74 12 Rebel-held Donbas 83 8 Data are taken from all-nation (except Crimea) KIIS recent survey conducted in February-March 2015. 75

THE STATUS OF DONBAS (Ukraine) In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions should have? Regions as parts of Ukraine with the same rights Regions as parts of Ukraine but with enhanced rights Autonomous Republics as parts of Ukraine Independent states Autonomous Republics as parts of Russia Regions as parts of Russia 0.6 0.6 3.1 10.7 37.7 37.9 ЧАСТИНА VI. ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙ УСТРІЙ УКРАЇНИ І СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІ НАСТРОЇ Hard to say / No answer 9.3 All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

Regions as parts of Ukraine with the same rights which they have now Regions as parts of Ukraine but with enhanced rights in economic, social and humanitarian spheres Autonomous Republics as parts of Ukraine West Center South East Donbas (the territories controlled by Ukraine) 56.1 38.4 27.6 25.0 14.6 25.6 45.4 47.3 40.9 22.0 6.0 6.0 15.9 16.8 27.6 Independent states 2.0 1.7 1.3 7.5 4.9 Autonomous Republics as parts of Russia 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 1.6 Regions as parts of Russia 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.6 Hard to say / No answer THE STATUS OF THE DONBAS (regions of Ukraine) In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions should have? 9.8 7.3 5.9 8.7 27.6 ЧАСТИНА VI. ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙ УСТРІЙ УКРАЇНИ І СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІ НАСТРОЇ All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

THE STATUS OF DONBAS ( DNR and LNR ) In DNR and LNR half of the respondents consider optimal for Donbas one of three scenarios in which Donbas remains in the country. 26% would choose the independence of their region and16% would joined to Russia. What do you think what the solution from the situation in Donbas would be optimal? Donbas is a part of Ukraine with the same rights as before Decentralization for Donbas Autonomy of Donbas The independence of Donbas Donbas is a part of the Russian Federation "DNR" and "LNR" 12% 16% 18% 20% 26% ЧАСТИНА VI. ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙ УСТРІЙ УКРАЇНИ І СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІ НАСТРОЇ Hard to say 8% KIIS and Telekritika syrvey, totally 220 respondents were interviewed on the territory of DNR and LNR, February, 2015.

TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF UKRAINE State system of Ukraine should be...? Unitary, regions have the same powers Unitary, decentralization Federalization Division into several states Hard to say/ No answers Whole Ukraine 38 45 6 1 11 West 48 38 2 0 11 Center 44 46 3 0 6 South 32 54 8 0 6 East 22 52 11 1 13 Donbas 13 28 20 6 34 KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

SEPARATIVE MOODS It will be better for my locality, if it will be separated from Ukraine Whole Ukraine West Center South East Donbas 40 80 80 86 88 97 22 4 38 11 5 4 16 9 8 9 1 Rather or totally disagree Rather or totally agree Hard to say / No answer ЧАСТИНА VI. ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙ УСТРІЙ УКРАЇНИ І СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІ НАСТРОЇ KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

THE SUPPORT OF SEPARATISM: Direct question vs. «Secret ballot» procedure For my locality it would be better if it separates from Ukraine, % of those who agrees 5 5.6 4 F2F interview 3.1 1.4 1.7 "Secret ballot" 10.9 All Ukraine West Center South East Donbas 7.5 4 8.6 22 26 ЧАСТИНА VI. ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙ УСТРІЙ УКРАЇНИ І СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІ НАСТРОЇ KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

Volunteering

Attitudes to civic participation and volunteering Ukrainians interest in different types of civic participation is growing with time. The most widespread practice during 2014-2015 material aid to the Army, internally displaced persons, participants of Euromaidan. Only a small percentage of Ukrainians took part in volunteering for civic movements and NGOs. Interest in volunteering and readiness to it is much lower than to providing of material help to the victims of armed conflict in Donbas (soldiers, civilians). A quarter to a third of Ukrainians express their interest to such types of civic society activities as participation in public hearings and meetings, reports about corruption and infrastructural problems to authorized agencies, discussions of draft laws. Each third person thinks that the problems must be solved by state, not by ordinary people. Each fifth belongs to vulnerable categories; the same number has no time and motivation to participate in civic initiatives; the same number does not know about possibilities to participate.

Participation in volunteering and charity activities to help the army and IDPs In October, 2014 44% of Ukrainians said they helped the army and displaced persons during the year. The same number did not do it and do not plan to do. Other 7% were going to help until the end of 2014. I support Ukrainian army by transfering of the money (including SMS sending to number 565, transfer to cards, etc) 27% I transferred the money to support wounded military 11% I bought foods and medicine for wounded military I transferred the money to persons displaced from area of ATO I bought foods and medicine for displaced persons 5% 8% 7% I bought military and protective equipment, etc. for the Ukrainian army I personally traveled in the area of ATO to provide volunteer assistance I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities, but I plan to do it by the end of the year I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities and I don't plan to do it in a short time KIIS Omnibus, n=2025, October, 2014 I made repost of requests for help in social networks I helped to provide housing for displaced persons Other Hard to say 2% 2% 2% 0% 4% 7% 5% 44%

Thanks for your attention! 85