Democratization Introduction and University College Dublin 18 January 2011
Outline
Democracies over time
Period Democracy Collapse 1828-1926 33 0 1922-1942 0 22 1943-1962 40 0 1958-1975 0 22 1974-1990 33 0 1983-1990 0 3 (Huntington 1991, as cited in Kurzman 1998)
Transitions over time (Doorenspleet 2000: 398)
Democracies over time
Outline
Slow wave until 1920s.
Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc.
Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later.
Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later. Example: The Netherlands (1848)
The Netherlands Economic development = burghers
The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency
The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency No protection of new Protestant church
The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility
The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns Ne veut-on plus de moi? On n a qu à le dire; je n ai pas besoin d eux.
The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns 1845 Group of MPs propose constitutional reforms, but are rejected
The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north
The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north Liberal prime minister resigns considering new constitutional changes too limited
The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe
The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution
The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution
The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution 1860s Conflicts between king and parliament settle informal rules
The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population)
The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability
The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability 1894 Electoral campaign around suffrage rights Liberals in favour of extension Conservatives, Catholics, Anti-Revolutionaries against
The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910)
The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote (In exchange for Christian schools)
The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote 1919 Female suffrage
The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy
The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments
The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later
The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later Very slow transition (1840-1919)
Outline
After World War II.
After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization
After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America.
After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America. Example: Venezuela (1958)
Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies
Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms
Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied
Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied Economic, but not political reforms
Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war
Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war 1944 Elections won by democratic party 1945 Medina puts forward liberal Escalante as presidential candidate
Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead
Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism
Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism 1946 Junta implements new electoral law
Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers
Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution
Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution 1950 Junta leader assassinated for refusal to implement full dictatorship
Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president
Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment
Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president
Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president 1958 Massive demonstrations; Pérez flees
Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections
Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections More inclusive approach to government, including concessions to Conservatives Catholic Church Military
Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military
Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure
Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment
Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment Inclusive ( pacted?) solution
Outline
Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?).
Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?)
Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?) Examples: Spain (1975) & Indonesia (1998)
Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain 1936-1975.
Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain 1936-1975. Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons
Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain 1936-1975. Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons 1969 Designates Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon as successor. Dies November 20, 1975.
Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech.
Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech. Elites divided in: Francoists Radical leftist opposition Reform-minded moderates (incl. king)
Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government.
Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition
Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition July 1977, forced to resign by king.
Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government
Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government 1977 First democratic elections 1978 New Spanish Constitution
Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions.
Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions. 1981 Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies
Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions. 1981 Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies The next day he surrenders to police
Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition
Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating
Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating Role of popular pressure
Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of.
Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of. 1957 Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism
Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of. 1957 Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism 1966 Military coup after supposed communist coup
Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development.
Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development. Pancasila: one God; civilized humanity; guided ; social justice.
Indonesia
Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri
Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri Students occupy parliament Ministers refuse to join new cabinet Army withdraws support (?)
Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections
Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections Rampant corruption Partial military reform
Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy
Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions
Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions Corruption and military reform as limits on consolidation
Outline
What do you think comparative politics is about?
Cases studies vs comparative
Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N
Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N Techniques and methodologies History Interviews Statistics Theory and models Formal theory
Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented?
Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented? If empirical, what theories or hypotheses are tested? If theoretical, what theories or hypotheses are posited?
Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many?
Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many? What methodologies have been used? On what evidence are the conclusions based?
Reading questions What are the main conclusions?
Reading questions What are the main conclusions? How does this relate to / compare with the other readings?
Outline
topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not
topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not and why some new democracies survive and others do not.
Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of
Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project
Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper
Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper Syllabus
Readings Background / textbook style Classics Applied, contemporary Example country
Readings: math Statistics Formal theory
Readings: math Statistics Formal theory Don t panic!
Assignments Reaction papers
Assignments Reaction papers = create groups
Assignments Reaction papers = create groups paper Deadline proposal: 22/3 Deadline: 26/4
Contact Newman Building, room F304 No regular office hours jos.elkink@ucd.ie
Outline
Plagiarism
Plagiarism Details can be found in the syllabus.
References in text Transitions to have to be seen as a dynamic process (Rustow 1970). The divisions in political science are detrimental to scientific progress (Pye 1990: 3-4).
Quotations in text Thus, today, neither content nor method provides an essential core for the discipline as a whole (Pye 1990: 4).
References: article Pye, Lucian. 1990. Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism. American Political Science Review 84: 3-19.
References: book Shively, W. Phillips. 2004. The craft of political research. 6th ed. London: Prentice-Hall.
References: internet Schafersman, Steven. 1994. An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. http://www.freeinquiry.com/intro-tosci.html, downloaded 18 January 2008.
References: internet Schafersman, Steven. 1994. An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. http://www.freeinquiry.com/intro-tosci.html, downloaded 18 January 2008.... and make sure you have a print-out or copy saved.