Studien zur Neuen Politischen Ökonomie Herausgegeben von T. Bräuninger, Mannheim, Deutschland G. Schneider, Konstanz, Deutschland
Susanne Michalik Multiparty Elections in Authoritarian Regimes Explaining their Introduction and Effects
Susanne Michalik Mannheim, Germany Dissertation University of Mannheim, 2013 Studien zur Neuen Politischen Ökonomie ISBN 978-3-658-09510-9 ISBN 978-3-658-09511-6 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-09511-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015936341 Springer VS Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, speci cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on micro lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer VS is a brand of Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Contents List of Tables...8 List of Figures...9 Acknowledegements... 11 1 Introduction... 13 1.1 The Puzzle... 13 1.2 The Argument in Brief... 15 1.3 The Study of Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 16 1.4 Why Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes?... 17 1.5 Plan of the Book... 20 2 Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes in the Literature... 23 2.1 Democratic Façade?... 23 2.2 Staying in Power... 26 2.2.1 Internal Effects of Multiparty Competition... 27 2.2.2 Winning Elections... 28 2.2.3 Democratization by Election?... 29 2.3 Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes in the International System... 30 3 Measuring Authoritarian Regimes with Multiparty Elections... 33 3.1 Defining Authoritarian Regimes... 33 3.2 Measuring Authoritarian Regimes... 36 3.3 Legislative Elections in Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 43 5
4 The Introduction of Multiparty Elections in Authoritarian Regimes... 47 6 4.1 Political Reforms in the Literature... 49 4.1.1 Revolutionary Threat... 50 4.1.2 Divisions within the Ruling Elite... 51 4.2 Modeling the Introduction of Multiparty Elections... 53 4.2.1 The Theoretical Argument in Words... 53 4.2.2 The Game Theoretic Model... 55 4.2.3 Analysis of the Authoritarian Coalition Termination Game... 57 4.2.4 Empirical Implications... 60 4.3 Econometric Representation of the Model... 64 4.4 Research Design... 66 4.4.1 Independent Variables... 66 4.4.2 Dependent Variables... 68 4.5 Introducing Multiparty Elections... 69 4.6 Case Studies... 79 4.6.1 Egypt 1976... 79 4.6.2 Kenya 1992... 80 4.7 Conclusion... 82 5 Authoritarian Multiparty Elections: Boon or Bane for Public Policies?... 85 5.1 Accountability in Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 87 5.2 Electoral Competition and the Provision of Public Goods... 89 5.3 Research Design... 91 5.3.1 Data... 92 5.3.2 The Endogeneity of Electoral Competition... 93 5.3.3 Instrumenting for Electoral Competition... 95 5.4 Electoral Competition and Health Care Expenditure... 97 5.4.1 Electoral Competition and Public Policies... 100 5.4.2 Alternative Specifications... 105 5.4.3 Discussion... 106 5.5 Conclusion... 108 6 Foreign Aid for Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 111 6.1 Recipient Institutions in the Literature... 113 6.2 Buying Policy Concessions... 115
6.3 Research Design... 118 6.4 Foreign Aid to Different Regime Types... 121 6.5 Foreign Aid to Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 126 6.6 Conclusion... 130 7 Conclusion... 133 7.1 Implications for the Study of Institutions... 135 7.2 Clientelism... 137 7.3 Party Development... 138 7.4 Transitions from Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes... 139 Appendix... 141 References... 149 7
List of Tables Table 1: Political Regimes over the World, 2008... 40 Table 2: Summary of Results... 59 Table 3: Theoretical Concepts and Explanatory Variables... 66 Table 4: Descriptive Statistics... 69 Table 5: Strategic and Non-Strategic Logit Model of Competitive Elections... 70 Table 6: Change in Probability Associated with Explanatory Variables... 72 Table 7: First Stage Results of Instrumental Variable Regression... 97 Table 8: Second Stage Results of Instrumental Variable Regression, Health Care Expenditure... 101 Table 9: Second Stage Results of Instrumental Variable Regression, Other Public Policies... 102 Table 10: Second- Stage Results of Instrumental Variable Regression, Alternative Measures... 103 Table 11: Provision of Public Goods in Different Regime Types... 106 Table 12: Descriptive Statistics... 118 Table 13: Aid to all Regime Types... 122 Table 14: Aid to all Regime Types, Other Measures... 124 Table 15: Aid to Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes: Interest and Representation... 125 Table 16: Aid to Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes, Other Governance Measures... 127 Table 17: Aid to Multiparty Authoritarian Regimes, Robustness... 129 8
List of Figures Figure 1: The Distribution of Political Regimes over the World, 1975-2008... 41 Figure 2: Authoritarian Coalition Termination... 56 Figure 3: Turning the Coalition Termination Model into a Statistical Model... 63 Figure 4: Econometric Representation... 63 Figure 5: Predicted Probabilities for the Strategic Model - Leader Years... 74 Figure 6: Predicted Probabilities for the Strategic Model Openness... 75 Figure 7: Predicted Probabilities for the Strategic Model Aid... 76 Figure 8: Predicted Probabilities for the Strategic Model - Growth... 77 Figure 9: Predicted Value of per Capita Health Expenditure (log)... 99 Figure 10: Predicted Percentage of Aid for Different Regime Types... 123 9
Acknowledegements The first time I dreamed about writing a book I was 13 and an avid reader. Admittedly, I was rather into novels than non-fiction. About three years later, I developed an interest in my country s past, a divided Germany. At that time, only ten years had passed since the fall of the Wall and people were struggling to match their individual memories and perceptions of the divided Germany. Even though the German Democratic Republic was an authoritarian regime, many of its former citizens insist that they had a nice life anyway and that there have been a lot of positive sides to the regime. Others point to the dictatorial practices like spying and repression. These contradicting views on the past caught my attention and made me wonder how authoritarian regimes form, why people do not stand up against them and even seem to appreciate them for different aspects. A central reason why I wrote and eventually finished my dissertation is based on the fact that I was able to research a topic that is close to my heart. While others warned me that I would sooner or later become tired of my dissertation s topic, this did not turn out to be true. I am very grateful to my adviser, Thomas Bräuninger, who let me pursue my own ideas while his own research interests are in other fields of political science. He is a scholar who always aims to think big, challenge oneself, and take the difficult road if that improves a research project s quality and reliability. This attitude was an inspiration for me and let me explore my intellectual limits. At the same time, it was easy to work with Thomas Bräuninger, as he treats others very respectfully and understands that there is a life beyond academia. Apart from my advisers, Thomas Bräuninger and Gerald Schneider, I also want to thank my fellow colleagues and graduate students. I am particularly indebted to those people who were willing to read and comment on my work, who shared their knowledge and sometimes a beer or two. Writing a dissertation is not only an academic project, a qualification, or a job, it often feels like more than that. When I was overwhelmed by the tasks ahead of me, I always knew I could turn to my parents. They have been a compass in my life and helped me to put things into perspective. Having a talk, a favorite home-cooked meal, or sharing an extended holiday often got me back on track. I am also very happy about having friends who were willing to stick with me in periods of an excessive work load and little fun time. Also, all session of Niveau-Limbo we played over lunch or in the evenings were highly appreciated. They helped a lot to clear my head and laugh-off some stress. 11
K. is the person I am most indebted to. He was willing to lend me some of his quirky humour and seemingly endless calm attitude on a daily basis. Our shared passion for the sciences meant that the other one understood the importance of a dissertation project. I don t know if I could have made it without such a strong home base. 12