Mexico s Update 2012 Global Spa & Wellness Summit Aspen, CO June 4, 2012
Macroeconomic Fundamentals Maastricht criteria ( 3% of GDP) Debt and deficit in 2011 Maastricht criteria ( 60% of GDP) Source: Bloomberg, El País, Eurostat, SHCP. 2
Macroeconomic Fundamentals Debt and growth in 2011 Maastricht criteria ( 60% of GDP) Source: Bloomberg, El País, Eurostat, SHCP. 3
Mexican Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real GDP growth and inflation (%) Forecast Source: Mexico s Central Bank, INEGI. 4
Labor figures Employment in Mexico has recovered since the 2008 crisis. Nevertheless, that is not the case in the US: Unemployment rate: 4.6% in Mexico vs. 8.1% in the US. New jobs in 2011: 612 thousand in Mexico vs. 1.64 million in the US. With an economic relationship of 1:10. From January to April, US has created 800 thousand jobs while Mexico has created 200 thousand. Employment (2007=100) Manufacture employment (2007=100) Source: BLS, IMSS, INEGI, STPS. Note: Using the Social Security affiliates (moving average 5 month) and non farm payroll in the US. 5
Mexico s economic cycle Mexican manufacturing follows closely this US sector. Nevertheless, since 2009 Mexican dynamism has been stronger. Production is at pre-crisis level in Mexico and below in the US. Employment in Mexico has recovered from pre-crisis levels. Mexican exports have shown significant increases. Manufacture production index (2007=100) Employment in Mexico Mexico s exports (2007=100) Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, INEGI. 6
Mexico s currency vs. Latin America and Canada Currently, Mexico is the only country in Latin America with sustained currency depreciation since the 2008 crisis (post-lehman), relative to the US dollar. Mexico has achieved a higher degree of competitiveness from the weaker peso, higher global transport costs, and lower unit labor cost differential between Mexico and other Asian countries. Exchange rate (USD) 11.5 0.95 11 Mexican Peso 10.5 Canadian Dollar 10 0.9 04/2010 10/2010 04/2011 10/2011 04/2012 Exchange rate (09/15/08=1) Inflation (%, annual growth) 15 14.5 14 13.5 13 12.5 12 1.1 1.05 1 Source: Bloomberg. 7
Manufacturing Exports of Latin America. Total exports of manufacturing products (billion dollars) In 2011, Mexico exported more than 60% of the manufacturing exports in Latin America. Source: ECLAC. 8
Mexico s Trade Agreements Mexico has 42 trade agreements. Exports plus imports as a percentage of GDP indicate the degree of openness of an economy: it was of 18.5% in Brazil, 51.7% in Canada, 58.6% in Mexico, and 21.6% for US. Mexico s agreements Source: Secretaría de Economía 9
Mexican Exports Mexican non oil exports in2011 Source: INEGI. 10
Trends of China s competitiveness and their consequences Manufacturers are moving away from outsourcing and are starting to embrace near sourcing. China is loosing competitiveness Wage and benefit rises of 15% to 20% annually in USD in the last decade. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Exports to the US (%, annual growth) México China Transportation costs and the continued appreciation of the yuan. Transportation costs (USD) 10 5 0 02/2010 05/2010 08/2010 11/2010 02/2011 05/2011 08/2011 11/2011 Unit labor costs (USD/hours) Monterrey to Chicago 4-5 days ground (53-ft truck container) Shanghai to Chicago 22 days marine and ground (40-ft shipping container) Source: Bloomberg, Boston Consulting Group, ILO, JP Morgan, SHCP. 11
Net migration from Mexico falls to zero-and perhaps less As George Shultz anticipated a couple of years ago, the net migration flow from Mexico to the US has stopped and may have reversed. According to a study from the Pew Center: Between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million Mexicans migrated north of the border, fewer than half as many as in the previous five-year period. Meanwhile, the number of Mexicans and their children who returned to Mexico between 2005 and 2010 rose to 1.4 million, about double the number who headed back home between 1995 and 2000. These trends suggests that the return flow to Mexico surpassed arrivals to the US in 2010 and 2011. 5-year migration flows US-Mexico (thousands) Note: Estimates are for February 1995 through February 2000 and June 2005 through June 2010. Migration from US to Mexico includes persons born in Mexico, the US, and elsewhere; Mexico to US includes Mexican-born persons only Source: Pew Center, WSJ. 12
Growth in the emerging markets will boost global growth Contribution to global growth (%) Size of the economy (constant 2000 USD, Tn) Growth in income per capita 2010-2050 (%) Source: IMF, World Bank. 13
Mexican Macroeconomic Fundamentals Mexico exports a billion dollars a day. Employment in Mexico is above its pre-crisis level. The international reserves in Mexico are at their highest levels. Demographic transition will help the economy for the next 20 years. 14
Security policy and violence trends Organized crime-related violence increased dramatically from 2008 to 2010. During 2011 it stabilized and it seems have started a decreasing trend. In April the number of deaths was of 1,180, a monthly decrease of 12%. Murders per 100,000 inhabitants Source: ICESI, Lantia, UN. 15