The Influence of Research on Policy: MIMAP Philippines January, 2004 By María Pía Riggirozzi & Tracy Tuplin This report is based on an original document prepared by Kirit Parikh as part of a larger study on the Influence of Research on Public Policy, conducted by IDRC s Evaluation Unit. We are grateful to Diana Tussie for her comments.
TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 2 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES 3 MIMAP PHILIPPINES 3 Project Background 3 The Philippine Context 4 MIMAP Philippines 6 a) Poverty Monitoring 8 b) Economic Modeling 9 c) Policy Advocacy 10 TYPE OF KNOWLEDGE 10 TYPES OF POLICY INFLUENCE 11 Expanding Policy Capacities 12 Broadening Policy Horizons 13 Affecting Policy Regimes 14 FACTORS AFFECTING POLICY INFLUENCE 16 Funding 16 Supply and Demand 16 Dissemination 16 Technology 17 Collaborative Environment 17 Ownership 18 Policy Windows 19 Key people and staff 19 Institutional issues 20 CONCLUSIONS 20 RESOURCES 23 APPENDIX A PRINCIPAL CONSULTANTS/RESEARCHERS AND WHERE ARE THEY NOW 24 APPENDIX B MIMAP/PHILIPPINES ADVISORY COUNCIL MEMBERS 26 APPENDIX C MIMAP/PHILIPPINES RESEARCH PARTNERS 29 APPENDIX D POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES IN PHILIPPINES 30 APPENDIX E THE INTERVIEWS FOR THE PREVIOUS REPORT 31 1
INTRODUCTION This paper is one of a series of evaluations commissioned by the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Hoping to identify the processes and factors bearing on research and how it may be used in influencing public policy, the Centre s Evaluation Unit has compiled case studies documenting the experiences of several key projects over the Centre s last decade of programming. Of the various IDRC projects selected, this study is one of three that reviews the Micro Impacts of Macroeconomic and Adjustment Policies (MIMAP) program. The other two are cases of Bangladesh and Senegal. It is interesting even to review these three cases together as though they were part of the same MIMAP project, the contexts in which they developed led to three quite different experiences. In 1989, IDRC created the MIMAP program to help developing countries to undertake alternatives to traditional macroeconomic policies by bridging policy analysis with poverty monitoring. Since its creation, MIMAP activities have helped developing countries minimize the negative impact of structural adjustment programs on the poor, such as currency devaluation, public expenditure reductions, trade liberalization and other policies. The main objectives of MIMAP program have been to increase the understanding of poverty and to promote dialogue among researchers, politicians, government officials and NGOs in the search of equitable and effective policies of poverty alleviation. In general, the MIMAP program has assisted in the analysis and creation of alternative policies to achieve the goals of economic stabilization and adjustment while reducing poverty and softening impacts on vulnerable groups. The specific objectives of MIMAP aimed to: 1. Enhance the research capacity of developing countries to analyze the impact of macroeconomic policies on their citizens; 2. Provide new instruments for policy and program design and analysis, by developing rigorous analytical tools and poverty monitoring systems; 3. Assist the development of community-based monitoring and local development mechanisms; 4. Strengthen the ability of policy-makers to negotiate with international players, such as the banks and other multilateral and bilateral organizations; 5. Bring together researchers, politicians, government officials, and NGOs in policy dialogue at the national and regional levels; and 6. Promote the exchange of research knowledge, tools, results and policy dialogue among countries, institutions and donors. 1 This paper describes IDRC s support to the MIMAP program in the Philippines which began in 1990. It is divided into five parts. The first part describes the methodological underpinnings of the study and the main implications for the analysis. The second part describes the context in which MIMAP Philippines was implemented. In so doing, it first outlines a general description of MIMAP program followed by the economic situation that of Philippines to understand the relevance of the MIMAP project in this country. The third part focuses specifically on MIMAP in the Philippines. It describes the project components and the most relevant characteristics related to the project phases and components. The 1 MIMAP Prospectus 2000-2005. IDRC October 2000. Available at IDRC website http://web.idrc.ca/ev_en.php?id=6724_201&id2=do_topic#objectives 2
fourth section analyses the type of knowledge produced as outcomes of MIMAP Philippines. This section is followed by an analysis of three types of policy influences: expanding policy capacities, broadening policy horizons, and changing policies regimes. The sixth and last part before concluding is dedicated to factors that have either contributed to policy influence in this project, or have otherwise distracted from policy influence. METHODOLOGICAL NOTES To explore the influence of MIMAP on policy in the case of the Philippines is a complex task. This paper is based on a previous document authored by Kirit Parikh (2002), project publications and in-depth interviews with selected actors in order to identify specific impact of particular research. From this perspective, project publications and transcribed interviews were used to developed plausible hypothesis about the policy impact of MIMAP, without claiming incontrovertible proof of it. 2 Taped interviews hold significant weight for this report on MIMAP Philippines. Yet, it must be noted that transcripts of the interviews, were sometimes confusing as the transcriber found the sound quality of the tapes to be poor and the incomplete information regarding the interviewees was confusing. In some cases, an interview tape would end and its continuation was not clear. As such, it was not always clear who exactly was being interviewed and some transcripts involved more than one interviewee though names were not provided. For this reason, opinions of those approached are reflected herein, although their identity is not always explicitly acknowledged, as they were not available. Even though, this report thoroughly reflects results and conclusions based on a deep analysis of mentioned sources of information. MIMAP PHILIPPINES Project Background The MIMAP program assists developing countries to build a knowledge base to measure and analyze poverty, as well as to design policies and programs that meet economic stabilization targets while alleviating poverty and reducing vulnerability. As a regional program, MIMAP was aimed at developing analytical tools to feed into policy formulation and implementation regarding poverty alleviation targets. Among the main components, MIMAP helped to: assess macroeconomic policies in responding to forces of structural change; analyze policy impacts on well-being at the micro level; disseminate information helping a wide range of institutions involved in policy making; provide venues for policy dialogue and participation in the redesign of macroeconomic policies, environmental and social objectives; and support a process of capacity and consensus building within the country and the region. To better reach these goals, MIMAP has also articulated a broader network of research institutions within beneficiary countries. In effect, as a major outcome of MIMAP, developing country researchers, policy officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international experts, have been exchanging their work strengthening research, training, and dialogue opportunities. 2 Parikh 2002. 3
The program developed three components: monitoring, modeling, and focus studies. In this context, MIMAP Philippines addressed the gap between particular needs and country policy making. Although, national policy makers already counted on regular national surveys, there was a recognized gap linked to the quality and timeliness of the information. Lamberte et al indicated the lack of a monitoring information feedback system that reviews the impacts of macroeconomic adjustment policies at the micro level. 4 In fact, while there was reliable data on macro variables, there was no systematic incorporation of information on the social aspects or human dimension. In addition, it was noticed that official information collection (census) was too infrequent, and further complicated by the years needed for processing them, to provide adequate information on the welfare of subgroups. The lack of statistical information at the village level coupled with a lack of training meant that evidence based information was not being used at the village level. In this context, the MIMAP project enhanced local government policy diagnosis and formulation by using data in an effective way. As some interviewees noted MIMAP instruments became an important instrument complementing national survey and targeting schemes with new specific information for policy makers. 5 MIMAP provided Philippines policy-makers with new instruments for formulation and program design as well as analysis through the development of analytical tools and poverty monitoring systems. Since 1990, the MIMAP-Philippines Project Team has focused on the development of analytical tools to capture the consequences of various economic reforms. Quantitative models have been designed and used in policy impact assessment, while an alternative poverty monitoring system (a community-based monitoring system) has been developed and pilot-tested. In support of its efforts to track the conditions of the poor, alternative statistical techniques that provide small area estimates of welfare variables have also been developed. Some interviewees highlighted as an important output of MIMAP Philippines the establishment of CBMS for the welfare of subgroups as it is a mechanism that provides effective and more comprehensive information at the village levels so profile of subgroups at specific times can be used for focused programs. Policy and program instruments have been disseminated to its prospective users through an on-going policy advocacy program by MIMAP. The Philippine Context Consistent with the path followed by most developing countries since the mid 1980s, the Philippines government implemented a series of structural adjustment measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances and to achieve sustainable economic growth. As shown in tables 1 and 2 below, the economy registered a robust economic growth in terms of gross domestic product during the 1990s. During the same period, poverty incidence consistently dropped. Despite these indicators, in rural areas poverty incidence is still above 40 percent, showing a remaining deterioration in the gap between the urban and the rural areas. This widening gap is a major concern at present. The Philippines is divided into 79 provinces, 1739 municipalities and 114 cities. The total number of barangays or villages are 41200. Each barangay has a number of puroks, which are settlements. Each province has its own elected Governor and legislative board. 3 Based on transcript of tape 9 4 Lamberte et al. 1991. 5 Based on transcript of tape 9. 4
The municipality mayors are members of the council and barangay captains and council members are elected. Within this decentralized map, poverty alleviation programs needed to be planned based on contextual analysis to provide focused assistance according to local needs. Structural adjustment measures in fact have had differential impacts on various groups. To address the needs of vulnerable group among the decentralized socio, political and economic context, MIMAP project was launched in the Philippines with a mandate to build local capacity to assess the impact of adjustment policies on the welfare of vulnerable households. The 1997 East Asian financial crisis and the 1997-1998 el Niño phenomena affected the Philippine economy and deepened socio-economic problems. Although some adverse effects were already evident during the last quarter of 1997, the impacts of these shocks were not fully felt until 1998. The shocks caused the Philippines gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.5 percent in 1998, triggering another boom-bust cycle (Table 1). Because of this, foreign investment moved out. This loss of investor confidence was further aggravated by other factors such as the deteriorating peace and order situation from which the country has not fully recovered. This recent experience of the Philippines has shown that it is possible to wipe out years of gains in poverty reduction with just one major crisis. This highlights the vulnerability not just of the poor but also of the non-poor to macroeconomic crises and natural calamities. 6 Table 1: Economic and Social Indicators GDP (in Million Pesos) Per capita GDP at constant prices (100=1985) at current prices 1981 630,642 281,596 5,697 1982 653,467 317,177 6,263 1983 665,717 369,077 7,108 1984 616,962 524,481 9,855 1985 571,883 571,883 10,491 1986 591,423 608,887 10,901 1987 616,923 682,764 11,934 1988 658,581 799,182 13,562 1989 699,448 925,444 15,346 1990 720,690 1,077,237 17,326 1991 716,522 1,248,011 19,522 1992 718,941 1,351,559 20,613 1993 734,156 1,474,457 21,934 1994 766,368 1,692,932 24,586 1995 802,224 1,905,951 27,038 1996 849,121 2,171,922 30,112 1997 893,151 2,426,743 32,899 1998 887,905 2,678,187 35,525 1999 918,160 2,976,905 38,653 2000 958,411 3,308,318 42,062 6 Reyes 2001. 5
2001 989,258 3,639,980 45,315 Table 2: Poverty in the Philippines 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Poverty Incidence (Percent) Families 44.2 40.2 39.9 35.5 31.8 33.7 Rural 50.7 46.3 48.6 47 44.4 46.9 Urban 33.6 30.1 31.1 24 17.9 19.9 Population 49.3 49.5 45.3 40.6 36.8 39.5 Rural 56.4 52.3 55.1 53.1 50.7 54 Urban 37.9 34.3 35.6 28 21.5 24.4 Poverty Line (Pesos/person) 3744 4777 7302 8885 11,319 13,823 Rural 3353 4094 6276 7946 10,178 12,187 Urban 4365 5893 8327 9831 12,577 15,524 Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), Philippines. MIMAP took particular relevance helping poverty alleviation programs specially developed by Philippines governments since 1986, as the reduction of poverty incidence was a key target in the Medium term Philippine Development Plan during the Ramos administration (92-98). The Estrada Administration also prioritized the thrust to poverty alleviation and MIMAP indicators were key to the design of anti-poverty plans. Moreover, some interviewees noted that although it is important that the poverty scenario be monitored regularly, national surveys were not available regularly enough, for which new poverty assessments and methodological tools were urgently needed. For example the family income and expenditure survey of the Statistics Office was available only every three years. This time lag in poverty related information has become even more challenging when economic indicators were negatively affected as a consequence of two major crisis, the Asian financial crisis at the end of the 1990s and the socio-economic consequences of the environmental phenomena linked to El Niño. Facing the magnitude of the economic situation at the end of the 1990s, it became clear that well targeted poverty alleviation programs were needed to respond to the negative socio economic indicators, especially in the rural areas. But it also became important to finally solve the problem of the lack of timely effective information that emanate from national surveys on poverty. In addition new indicators targeting socio-economic contexts at the level of provinces became a need identified by most of the interviewees. MIMAP Philippines The interest to go beyond the income-based measure of poverty required new instruments to assess macro and micro economic impact of policies. In the Philippines, the impact of economic reforms and economic crisis on the poor called for new instruments to determine who and where the poor were located and to contribute to valuable inputs for designing appropriate programs to alleviate poverty. 6
In this context, two major contributions of MIMAP Philippines have been pointed out by participants: On one hand, analytical tools to capture the consequences of various economic reforms and to provide policymakers with a good information base on their possible impacts. These analytical tools allowed analysis of poverty composition and changes in nature as well as focused studies on policy reforms in such areas as tariff reform, tax reform, fiscal and trade liberalization, among others. On the other hand, MIMAP developed and tested quantitative models for policy analysis and simulation, including CGE (Computable General Equilibrium), macroeconometric, income distribution, and household models. The MIMAP project has also developed an alternative poverty monitoring system: this Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) was to collect data at the village level for use in local planning. Since mid-1990s, the MIMAP CBMS was pilot tested in two villages, and generated valuable data on the nature and intensity of poverty in the study sites. This monitoring system has been implemented with a participatory approach involving people in the community to collect, process and use the data. In particular, the design of the system was intended to monitor the conditions of the vulnerable groups in the society. It aimed to monitor not only changes in welfare status but the causes of these changes as well. These contributions were implemented in earlier phases of the project and were refined in subsequent phases. Currently, the project is in its seventh phase and seeks to further refine the analytical tools and research capacities developed in earlier phases. Some of the principal components of the current phase are: to support and refine the community-based monitoring system in the province of Palawan; to pilot a gender component of the CBMS; to provide technical support and advocacy for the nation-wide extension of CBMS in the Philippines; and to provide coordination of MIMAP's CBMS network, comprised of MIMAP researchers working in CBMS in selected countries in Asia and Africa. 7 The following table describes the technical aspects of the project according to its phases: Table 3: Program Phases Phase Amount (CAD) Duration Period (Months) Phase I 209,699 12 1992 93 Phase II 231,301 12 1993 94 Phase III 324,566 12 Dec. 1994 Nov. 1995 Phase IV 288,248 12 June 1996 May 1997 Phase V 319,154 12 Aug. 1998 July 1999 Phase VI 123,423 12 Nov. 1, 2000 Oct. 31, 2001 Palawan Phase VII 155,871 12 Nov. 16, 2001 Nov. 15, 2002 The project was initiated by Dr. Mario Lamberte of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) who was also the Project Director from 1990-1992. Dr. Celia Reyes became Project Director in 1992 and continues until today. The list of staff members who have worked on MIMAP and their current positions are given in Appendix A. The broad organizational structure is shown in the figure below. 7 http://web.idrc.ca/es/ev-6677-201-1-do_topic.html 7
Figure 1: Organizational Design Organizational Set-up MIMAP Project Policy Advisory Council Research Advisory Council Project Director Assistant Project Director Research Teams Core Staff Support Staff As indicated earlier, the MIMAP program in the Philippines has three main components: (a) poverty monitoring, (b) economic modeling, and (c) policy advocacy. Each of these are briefly addressed below. a) Poverty Monitoring Poverty monitoring is being carried out by MIMAP Philippines through the following mechanisms: Development and institutionalization of a community based monitoring system (CBMS). Validation of indicators for poverty tracking. Installation and maintenance of a poverty database. Preparation and updating of the country s poverty profile. Generation of small area statistics. This component provides well-organized, coordinated, and regular poverty monitoring system at the barangay (village) level. The provision of technical assistance in the design of the survey instruments, training of community-level enumerators, and training in processing information to be used for policymaking has been proved successful in 23 municipalities in the province of Palawan. The project has participated in the development of poverty monitoring indicators and mechanism in many ways. It has developed the 8
Community Based Monitoring System (CBMS) with 16 indicators that go beyond incomebased ones to incorporate new nuances. 8 From this perspective monitoring poverty has broadened to include new indicators correcting bias to traditional instruments. 9 The system has been implemented in all the barangays of the Province of Palawan. The CBMS experience has showed how local budget resource allocation can be improved, especially with respect to poverty reduction, and how participative and responsive local government can be strengthened. MIMAP activities have set new bases for the development of a monitoring system and statistical support to policy administration. It was particularly relevant in that it is a compliment to official poverty monitoring. 10 The critical aspect of this methodological instrument is that it helps to differentiate allocation of government expenditures in tune with the overall economy as it allows for a better understanding of changing dimensions of the impact of macroeconomic policies on the poor. b) Economic Modeling The MIMAP Philippines modeling component consists of a series of economic models using Philippine data. There are four principal aspects. First, the development of macroeconomic models that are used to analyze macroeconomic adjustments based on income distribution and sectoral and commodity prices. These are the Philippine Macroeconomic Model with an Income Distribution Bloc and the Philippine Economy-wide Model or the Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE). Second, at the sub-level, the Household Models are used to estimate parameters, which go into a linking matrix consisting of three elements: the Food Demand (Nutrition) Model, the School Attendance Model and the Health Model. As a third element, this linking matrix is used to analyze the macroeconomic effects on household structures. Finally, Focused Studies have been developed for the analysis of specific poverty-related problems and the effective application of modeling mechanisms. These models have been used to analyze the impacts of the following reforms in the country: Tax Reform Trade Liberalization Financial and Foreign Exchange Liberalization Foreign Exchange Liberalization Privatization Deregulation The modeling system is developed in a two-track manner. On one hand, the macroeconomic model captures short-term impact of economic policies on the poor. On the other, the CGE model analyses longer-term impact. The household model completes the framework within which modeling is applied for the generation of poverty-related policies. 11 8 See Appendix B. 9 Interview with Intal, tape 6 10 Ibid 11 Interview with Lamberte, tape 7 9
c) Policy Advocacy A key element in the MIMAP Philippines strategy to implement the project is information dissemination. This forms a very crucial component since it is only by effectively communicating the findings of the project to the appropriate audiences that one can hope to influence policymaking. The advocacy program of MIMAP Philippines is comprised of: Publications Workshop and Skills Training, Networking Outreach activities: a quarterly newsletter (500 copies) and press briefings, website and email feedback. The advocacy component of the CBMS work in the Philippines required close interaction with national government agencies with an end goal of encouraging the officials to institutionalize the proposed system. Over the years, MIMAP had established close coordination work with the Presidential Commission to Fight Poverty (currently the National Anti-Poverty Commission), Department of Interior and Local Government (through the Bureau of Local Government and Development), the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). For diagnosing poverty at the local level, the National Anti-Poverty Commission invited MIMAP-Philippines Project Director Dr. Celia Reyes to collaborate in the proposal of mechanisms to diagnose poverty before an inter-agency committee working on the institutionalization of a local poverty monitoring system. This close collaboration with government agencies resulted in further networking exercises among governmental and non-governmental actors at different levels of authority. 12 TYPES OF KNOWLEDGE MIMAP Philippines represents a case in which analytical and methodological instruments were designed to support the formulation and implementation of poverty-related policies. In this context, research was sought to impact directly on policy makers through the generation of problem solving type of knowledge. But MIMAP activities also affected the growing maturity of the researchers themselves, deepening their understanding of the issue and providing better and more credible policy advice on the implications of policy choices. The objective of influence has been assured by the articulation of policy-oriented research and through capacity building mechanisms such as training, workshops and dissemination of research outputs and networking. In this context, Lamberte has recognized the importance of policy learning of those working on MIMAP activities, in particular enhancing understanding and improving their capacity of policy advise. The implications on national policy discussions on poverty have also been benefited by MIMAP outputs. Improving policy-oriented knowledge was pointed by some actors as a key element correcting existing bias or nationalizing statistical analysis and surveys that traditionally were based, among other sources, on external sources of information such as human development reports of UNDP and other countries experiences. The Minimum 12 NewsUpdate Volume IX Number 2 June 2002 10
Basic Needs survey constructed with collaboration of MIMAP inputs illustrates this case. A national approach to poverty measuring and monitoring is one key contribution of MIMAP Philippines. 13 Broadening the approach has been a direct consequence of MIMAP knowledge generation. The diffusion of such knowledge has also impacted on the movement of the political system itself as discussions around the MIMAP ideas helped to bridge research and policy and to institutionalize statistical and monitoring instruments along different regions of the country. 14 Lamberte commented on this regard that a number of people at the municipal, provincial and barangi levels indicated that they could now truly base their project and interventions on data and information. Finally, knowledge generation has also been based on focus studies that target specific needs. Dr. Intal noted that the CGE, for instance, helped to approach the issue of income distribution impact of trade policy. In this context, focus studies helped to broaden the understanding of the impact of the adjustment into the household beyond income. Another example has been related to liberalization policies; one of the studies showed that liberalization reduce the link and increase the number of working students and reduce the number of idle students that in turn affects the difference households. 15 Transfer of knowledge was an important ingredient of knowledge diffusion into policymaking bodies. MIMAP research results were made known to policy makers in a number of ways. Some staff that was involved in the construction of the models or that had experience in such modeling were involved in governmental positions as first line in the policy making process. Some of them were involved in the MIMAP advisory committees. Others participated in seminars. MIMAP researchers, staff and consultants were involved in working groups, committees, etc. Some of them moved into policy-making positions. Similarly, senior policy makers have been involved as policy advisers in the project. In the process, the capacities of researches have also been strengthened. In this context, researchers have become more mature advisors and teachers. TYPES OF POLICY INFLUENCE Any assessment of policy impact of research has to account for the many pathways through which research affects policies. In the case of MIMAP Philippines, project documents and interviewees have pointed at direct and indirect ways of exercising influence. In terms of direct impact five main paths were noted by Parikh (2002): (a) Immediate acceptance: Research result is directly applicable to current policy issues and is accepted and leads to policy change. (b) Raising new questions: Research may question hitherto accepted policy and raise new questions and approaches that in turn lead to a change of mindset. (c) Policy debate: Research results bring out nuances that sharpen policy debates. 13 Interview with Dr. Intel, tape 6 14 Tape 9 15 Interview with Lamberte, tape 8 11
(d) (e) Consensus building: Research may contribute to building consensus on policy reforms or initiatives. Social development staff: this was particularly the case of the National Economic and Development Authority, as social issues became an increasingly important dimension of macro-economic political relations. 16 Together, a related consequence has been the influence on the planning system, budgeting and program design at local and national levels. Particularly relevant in this context has been the use of new statistical systems and modeling instruments. 17 As for the indirect impact, it has been highlighted that MIMAP activities contributed to capacity building in that research builds up the capacity of researchers whose understanding improves. This happens in the following ways: (i) The researches give better policy advice (ii) The researchers themselves become policy makers. (iii) The researchers teach students and transmit them better understanding, knowledge and tools. The students later support policy change or themselves become policy makers. In sum, MIMAP has helped develop household modeling, macro-modeling and CGE modeling and teaching and promoted the use of models for a better feed into the policy process. Together, direct and indirect influence can be categorized into three dimensions of policy influence: expanding policy capacities, broadening policy horizons, and changing policies and regimes. From this perspective, the following section maps MIMAP effects according to these categories of policy influence. Expanding Policy Capacities One of the major impacts of MIMAP activities in policy processes has been linked to the capacity of improved data. MIMAP Philippines illustrates a case of improving knowledge and supporting recipients to develop policies and capabilities of policy makers. In effect the methodological tools implemented by the project has enabled local decision makers to assess the welfare of the population. Some interviewees pointed the case of new instruments that not only expanded the capacity to assess and formulate policies but also the institutionalization of new instruments within the government structure. As a clear example, some have pointed the case of the creation of the Commission to Fight Poverty in 1993/94 with the mandate of developing a local monitoring tool for poverty. To that end, the Commission has collaborated with MIMAP in developing the Minimum Basic Needs (MBN) to complement local monitoring system with economic indicators that focus on social dimensions. This framework helped to regularly monitor and assess poverty in a more encompassing manner as well as in more social economic contexts. 18 In this regards, some interviewees pointed out the impact of the monitoring system in the institutionalization of the MBN System. 19 However, although the MBN systems has been used by various agencies to undertake the initiative throughout four municipalities since 16 Interview with Lamberte, tape 8 17 tape 9 18 Information based on Tape 5 19 ibid 12
the mid-1990s, it has also been noted that it was not continued (in some areas) since the main problem was the lack of resources for undertaking it. 20 There are numerous local monitoring systems based on these indicators that are implemented in different provinces. Another impact of this component on government s poverty reduction strategy is that MIMAP has helped governmental agencies to implement this monitoring system in a collaborative arrangement. In effect, another major impact has been identified with the participation of local people in the collection, processing and use of the data. The data is collected on a regular basis by trained community members and used for local development planning. 21 The example cited by most interviewees relates to the experience in Palawan province. There a CBMS has been implemented for more than 20 regions within the area of Palawan at the request of the Provincial Planning and Development Office. This experience provided a successful exercise bridging up-to-date information on welfare status and the needs at the community level. 22 In addition, it was highlighted that information generated through the CBMS is also increasing the transparency of decision-making. Expanding policy capacities has also been associated with researches themselves. In effect, knowledge producers within the framework of MIMAP activities have become more mature advisors and have been involved as policy advisers in the project. Moreover, the complexity of modeling schemes allowed modelers to increase their professional standards as some have advanced in their careers improving teaching and leading future analysts. MIMAP researchers became involved in teaching activities in Universities. In this context, techniques for small area statistics are now taught in academic institutions and MIMAP papers are in reading lists of academic programs. Limitations of MIMAP impact on policy has been pointed out by some interviewees who acknowledged that although the policy makers capacity to better use the analysis increased, the goal of transferring models to policy making bodies such as NEDA has not been fulfilled. Despite a number of efforts to train people to use them, model runs still depend on the help of modelers, decreasing the autonomous institutionalization of such policy instruments. Broadening Policy Horizons The MIMAP project has played a crucial role in the analysis and forecasting of impacts of macroeconomic and adjustment policies in the Philippines. In addition to the incorporation of new ideas on poverty alleviation and methodological tools to monitor the consequences of macroeconomic policies on the poor, MIMAP analytical instruments, such as focus studies, increased the quality and reliability of diagnostic work. Analysis of the Asian economic crisis (February 1999) using the macroeconometric and household models are often cited as illustrative of this case. These analytical works helped to cope and sometimes predict the adverse effects of the financial crisis and the El Niño on poverty incidence, malnutrition, and school drop-out rates, which were later confirmed by official statistics. MIMAP has also helped in the assessment of the impact of the peso devaluation, along with alternative policy responses during the Asian financial crisis. 23 20 ibid 21 http://web.idrc.ca/es/ev-6677-201-1-do_topic.html 22 Tape 9 23 http://web.idrc.ca/es/ev-6677-201-1-do_topic.html 13
The interchanges between knowledge producers and knowledge users have been an important contribution of MIMAP to further networking among policy makers and researchers. Some activities were key for this outcome. For example, training on newsletter preparation in Palawan province has been cited as strengthening the MIMAP- CBMS Network Coordinating Team. Upon the invitation of the provincial government of Palawan, the Team conducted training activities on newsletter preparation at the provincial capitol for the staff of the Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO). Some key actors were involved as trainers, such as the director for research information and a research officer of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Both of these people have also worked with the MIMAP project s quarterly newsletter. 24 The training was requested by the provincial government of Palawan in line with its objective of creating a newsletter that could be used as a mechanism to disseminate the welfare conditions in the various areas of Palawan as indicated by the results of the CBMS survey to a wider audience. The three-day training focused on the (a) basics of newsletter and the various steps involved in its preparation, (b) mechanics and guidelines for writing and organizing feature and news articles, (c) layout and design principles, and (d) writing and layout exercises. Among the outputs of the training were two sample newsletters that were created by the participants. All the write-ups, organization, design and layout of the two newsletters were prepared by group. This example illustrates a case in which participants were able to apply what they learned during the training. In addition to the staff of the PPDO, selected personnel from the geographic information system (GIS) unit of the provincial government also attended the training. Networking and other collaborative experiences helped to broaden policy debates not only among the policy makers but also throughout the population. In effect, Lamberte identified awareness of macro-economic reform as a major impact in this sense. Particularly relevant in this context are information that stem from community-based surveys. Yet, there has been also recognized by Lamberte that there is a need for further spread of information and monitoring to other provinces, especially to provincial planning officers, since accounts of success are basically identified with the experience in the province of Palawan. 25 Lamberte associated this issue to the need to further champion MIMAP activities to other provinces and in turn institutionalize monitoring and modeling more generally. It was highlighted however that for that end some conflicting perceptions among different governmental agencies must be sorted, and even more include different representatives of agencies from the economic sector. 26 Affecting Policy Regimes This type of policy influence has been linked to fundamental redesign or modification of programs or policies. 27 Although not necessarily associated to changing policies, it is a fact that the success story of CBMS in Palawan has been considered emblematic for further institutionalization of MIMAP instruments at the national scale. Drawing on the 24 Ms. Jennifer Liguton and Ms. Jane Alcantara, respectively. 25 Tape 7 26 Ibid 27 Lindquist 2001. 14
experience in Palawan, the prospects of further development of the system raises opportunities for replication in other provinces. 28 MIMAP s policy impact in this case can be examined for its three major components, the CBMS in Palawan, the insights obtained through research and focus studies, and the impact of modeling. The project has participated in the development of poverty monitoring indicators and mechanism in many ways. It has developed a CBMS with 16 indicators. The system has been implemented in all the barangays of the Province of Palawan. The various focus studies and models have been used to obtain insights into a number of policy issues. They have contributed to the debate on these issues in Philippines. Palawan is a shining success story and the most visible one. Several factors played a role for knowledge utilization. The involvement of policy makers at provincial, municipal and barangay levels as well as the Vice Governor and Governor has contributed to the effective use and impact of research outputs into the policy process. MIMAP research and statistical activities feed a new way of approaching poverty related problems in Palawan. Moreover, research has not only been transferred but also the local people displayed a sense of ownership for the CBMS. Research-policy nexus in this case rests on sustained efforts at developing a set of indicators that in turn helped to develop diagnostic and policy responses. For instance, the selected 16 indicators for CBMS allowed data collection and interpretation in an easy and focused way. The simplicity of the indicators was critical as the community could see the gains from CBMS. They now demand relevant projects with much greater self-confidence. Moreover, client interest was reflected on the exchange of Palawan s beneficiaries and the MIMAP team who provided required technical support over a long period and allowed ownership in the instrumentation of the process. The provincial officers have remained involved for some time without any transfers interrupting the work. This experience illustrates that a system that became embedded as data was enforced by new instruments for the analysis, monitoring and feedback at the local level. Together, this is the context identified by most of the interviewees as preconditions to establish institutionalized monitoring mechanisms, such as the CBMS, to regularly assess micro impact of macro-policies. The successful implementation of the CBMS in all the barangays of the Province of Palawan not only represents a case of change in policy-making but its relevance also relies on the prospects of replication of this experience in other Philippine provinces. Although geographically a large island with only 600,000 people, it is sufficiently varied and thus can be a role model for the other provinces of Philippines, which in average have similar sized populations. From this perspective, the outcomes of MIMAP project has change the way of making policy in that research gave new understanding to define a manageable, relevant set of indicators, as well as it gave credibility to policy formulation. In this sense, it made possible to test ideas, to adjust policies and to improve them along the process of implementation. In addition, researchers acquired new incentives to disseminate their ideas and to put them in practice. 28 Tape 5, p.3 and interview with Lamberte; Tape 9 15
FACTORS AFFECTING POLICY INFLUENCE Various factors have been seen to either enhance possibilities for policy influence, or otherwise distract from it. These factors are listed below. Funding As is often the case, the role of funding (or lack of it) was fingered as an inhibitor to policy influence. Mentioned above is the case of the government wanting to implement the monitoring system for four municipalities in 1997, but it was not continued with the principal problem being the lack of resources for its undertaking. Even so, the CBMS experience has shown how local budget resource allocation can be improved, especially with respect to poverty reduction, and how participative and responsive local government can be strengthened. This is why the targeting was so important to be able to focus resources where they were needed most. Also in regards to limited financing, there was a desire in the MIMAP secretariat to have a more pro-active policy in linking concerns with drug research that had already been developed, but it was found too difficult at such a point because of their limited resources, which would have them more dependent on the NGO agenda. 29 However, lack of funds was not always the issue. One instance notes that in 2000, poverty elevation funds were continually shifted around and eventually redirected into other funds. The interviewee noted that because the national agencies were slow in implementing, legislators put that fund into other funds. 30 This is not in respect to project funds, but rather official poverty funds, yet illustrates the importance of proper allocation and control. Supply and Demand MIMAP assistance is requested by government agencies especially in regards to the local monitoring systems. It is also requested by actors in particular sectors who have expressed their need for agencies or institutions that can look more closely into the impact of, for example, trade liberalization an area which MIMAP already has experience with. However, while demand for this expertise is high, supply of MIMAP assistance is limited. Lamberte commented that he was surprised at the magnitude of the work being done in MIMAP, and indicated a problem to be the lack of paid staff. While there is significant interest, there is a lack of staff that can look at the impact of macro on policy micro units. Dissemination Compared to other case studies, relatively few references surfaced in regards to this project s dissemination and it seems to be less of an issue here, especially for the models and monitoring. Short mention was made to the web page which could be used for better dissemination as it is useful for networking and visibility. People that access the site have 29 Interview tape 5A. 30 Ibid. 16
written to the program with comments or to say they are doing something similar. The Philippines project has developed a comprehensive web-page that provides access to the research paper, project updates, newsletter and events, indicators, and database. 31 There are currently 58 research papers online and the site is being used as counters show that since February 1999, 4107 hits were made and a number of email feedback had been received. Results for 18 of the 21 Palawan municipalities with CBMS can be accessed online, results for 10 municipalities that also have village level results are also available. Various outreach activities are carried out in hopes of greater policy influence. A quarterly newsletter is developed by the team and some 500 copies are distributed. A press briefing is done so that the newspapers reproduce some of the stories. In addition, many workshops, seminars and field visits have been organized. Even so, in this study, dissemination has not surfaced as being such a significant factor affecting policy influence. This is likely because of the structure and the involvement of government actors from the beginning. Technology The very low level of computerization at the provincial level has hindered policy influence. Lamberte noted that the information systems constrained MIMAPs advances and noted it to be of significant concern. It seems that with a better information system, the work would have progressed faster and have been much more developed. 32 This thought was brought up by another interviewee who commented that computerization is a must, and that the value of the information is indeed greater when computerized. 33 Collaborative Environment A key factor that has contributed to the project s policy influence is the collaborative environment and participation established among the various actors. This was preplanned and almost a base value in the program. One interviewee commented what we want is that all of these folks participate in the work that we are undertaking for the local government. 34 Further reference is made to a government committee where MIMAP was asked to adopt a report. One of the subcommittees was headed by a secretary (now President). She recognized the importance of the ideas and MIMAP was asked to prepare the report for the senate and advise as to whether or not approve the policy at hand. The numbers were critical in this instance as they were looking for hard figures. When asked how much adjustment measure should be, MIMAP was able to provide a precise response. While the transcripts were confusing, this involvement appears to translate into direct influence in regards to exactly how much the adjustment measures should be. (A specific number of 2 billion pesos was brought up.) 35 The committee was also interested in sectoral impact they wanted to know which sectors would be adversely affected and which would not. 31 See www.panasia.org.sg/mimapph. 32 Lamberte 2002. 33 Interview tape 9. 34 Interview tape 5. 35 Lamberte 2002. Tape 8. 17
The idea for community involvement and community-based monitoring systems was a MIMAP idea, but the locals themselves took advantage of the opportunity presented. First the monitoring system was set up and then the number of indicators were monitored. The idea was for the local government units (LGU) to be more active in monitoring and several meetings with the LGUs were held as were others with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) also working together. 36 Other initiatives were put forward by NGOs and other programs, but they did not tend to be successful. In any case, the involvement of local and national actors was noted and their concerns were voiced for the surveys. 37 Lamberte comments on the concern of rigidity and being closed minded to other ideas from other institutions. Rather, his approach was that it was better to involve different institutions in reviewing the model, and each of them would bring insight. The value of this is in differentiating the different models. Over the years, MIMAP had established close coordination work with the Presidential Commission to Fight Poverty (currently the National Anti-Poverty Commission), Department of Interior and Local Government (through the Bureau of Local Government and Development), the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). For diagnosing poverty at the local level, the National Anti-Poverty Commission invited MIMAP-Philippines Project Director Dr. Celia Reyes to collaborate in the proposal of mechanisms to diagnose poverty before an inter-agency committee working on the institutionalization of a local poverty monitoring system. This close collaboration with government agencies resulted in further networking exercises among governmental and non-governmental actors at different levels of authority. 38 Certainly, participation and particularly the involvement of local communities at various levels was stressed and actors were invited to many forums among local government. This led to a sense of accomplishment and that the communities had some control over the programs. Ownership Dr. Intal felt the key difference between the Palawan experience and the others was that in the case of Palawan, the whole local government unit (LGU) bought into it and really took it upon themselves to make a difference. 39 Previous efforts were linked to some small projects and the impact of these projects were only on selected families. Palawan was really unique as the LGUs really owned it and knew its value. After the monitoring system was developed and adjusted as required, project leaders decided the best route was to empower those sectors that would be affected. This was envisioned as a mechanism to strengthen the system and that local land government or community organizations would be best positioned to keep monitoring up to date. There had been work on a system to be implemented at all local government units, however while the need for a core set of indicators that could be monitored was recognized, there was a dilemma in that the LGUs are autonomous and other levels of 36 Interview tape 7, page 9. 37 Intal 2002. tape 6. 38 NewsUpdate Volume IX Number 2 June 2002 39 Ibid. 18