The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis Terri E. Givens Associate Professor University of Texas at Austin The initial success of radical right parties such as the French Front National (FN) in the mid-1980s coincided with concerns about immigration flows into countries across Europe. Although the post-wwii guest worker era had ended in the mid-1970s, immigration continued, mainly through family reunification. Based on research conducted in the mid-1990s through 2001, my book Voting Radical Right in Western Europe examined the role of coalition politics, immigration, unemployment, and other factors in the success of far right parties. Radical right parties in the 1980s and 1990s appealed to voters who felt threatened by modernization and globalization. They used immigrants as scapegoats for rising unemployment and underemployment and to address fears that new immigrants were a threat to cultural homogeneity. The research showed that radical right voters tended to be blue-collar males who were concerned about unemployment and the disappearance of manufacturing jobs. When conducting the research, I was regularly told that these parties were a flash in the pan and that they would disappear after the next election. The last decade has shown not only that these parties have staying power but also that in several instances they have participated in governments, either as part of a governing coalition such as in Austria after the 1999 parliamentary election or in support of a minority government such as in Denmark from 2001 through the parliamentary elections of 2011 and more recently in the Netherlands. In the last 10 years, there has been a surge of interest in the radical right because these parties continue to have electoral success. Issues such as Islamic 139 Terri E. Givens is associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. She received her PhD from the University of California, Los Angeles, and her BA from Stanford University. Her academic interests include radical right parties, immigration politics, and immigrant integration in Europe. She has conducted extensive research in Europe, particularly in France, Germany, Austria, Denmark and Britain. Copyright 2013 by the Brown Journal of World Affairs Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

140 Terri E. Givens fundamentalism and terrorism, ongoing immigration flows from within and outside of the EU, and more recently fiscal austerity measures have led to an increase in support for parties such as the FN and Golden Dawn in Greece. In the 2012 French presidential election, the FN s Marine Le Pen s third-place showing, with nearly 18 percent of the popular vote, was more than just a protest vote against former French president Nicolas Sarkozy; it was a vote for a candidate who consistently opposed immigration and, in particular, the growth of Muslim communities in France. Immigration continues to be one of the main issues used by the radical right to gain support in Europe. However, the fear of Islamic links to terrorism, the ongoing fiscal crisis, and concerns about the future of the European Union have also begun to feed into the support for the far right, energizing politicians such as Marine Le Pen as they pursue political power in a shifting landscape. The influence of far right parties has been studied from a variety of perspectives, including examination of their influence on immigration policy and immigrant integration. As researcher Gilles Ivaldi notes, At the political level, there are well-founded concerns with the policy impacts by those parties, either because of their joining national coalition governments such as in Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Poland, or the Netherlands, or simply due to their ability to exert influence on mainstream policy while remaining in opposition. 1 Radical right politicians have often been successful in pushing for more restrictive immigration policies, particularly when they have been in government or have supported a minority government. Immigrants, people of color, and Jews have long been targets of violence and discrimination in Europe. Despite advances in antidiscrimination policy, anti-immigrant sentiment continues to impact party politics in Europe. Another A trend across Europe has been the focus on Islam and a rejection of multiculturalism. trend across Europe has been the focus on Islam and a rejection of multiculturalism, which has become a buzzword for allowing minority groups to maintain separate communities with independent cultural and religious practices that may seem alien to natives. In the last decade, politicians on the left and on the right have taken hardline positions on both immigration control and the need for immigrants, particularly Muslims, to conform to their host cultures. Mainstream politicians in Europe have been pulling far right discourses into mainstream rhetoric since the 1990s. A consensus has developed among much of the political elite in Europe that attacking multiculturalism is a useful means of thwarting support for the far right. This is despite the fact that many governments had moved away the brown journal of world affairs

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis from these types of policies in the late 1990s. This shift in discourses has not kept support for the radical right from increasing, particularly in countries like France and the Netherlands. Several politicians in Europe, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, and French former president Nicolas Sarkozy, have stated in one form or another that multiculturalism has failed. These proclamations are generally referring to Muslim communities and their perceived lack of integration. Such claims are often made in the context of security issues (such as David Cameron s speech on Islamic radicalization at the Munich Security Conference), often fueling the perception of Muslims as a threat. It is important to keep in mind that Islam has only recently (in the last 15 years or so) become a major target for radical right parties and other groups such as the English Defense League (EDL) that take an anti-islam position, as well as for referenda such as the Swiss vote against minarets. In policy terms, this has led to a greater focus on curbing family reunification and requiring potential immigrations to take language and culture courses in order to qualify for a visa. These types of policy approaches impact all immigrant communities, making it difficult to keep families together and generally making them feel unwelcome. This is accentuated when they face discrimination in areas such as housing and employment. The main argument in my 2005 book was that, radical right parties will have difficulty attracting voters and winning seats in electoral systems that encourage strategic voting by the electorate and/or strategic coordination by the mainstream parties. Strategic voting occurs when voters choose to vote for a party other than their preferred party because they are afraid of wasting their vote, or they are afraid that their least favored party will win if they vote for their most preferred party. 2 Majoritarian electoral systems still keep the radical right out of legislatures as seen in the 2010 U.K. parliament election, where the British National Party (BNP) was unable to win any seats. However, the 2009 European Parliament elections show that these parties can use second-order elections to maintain support. In this context the BNP won three seats. 3 In another example, the 2012 French legislative election saw the Front National win a seat in the French Assembly, despite the actions of the mainstream parties to maintain a cordon-sanitaire by refusing to cooperate with the party. Thus, in general, the radical right has had more success in winning seats at the local level and in the European parliament than at the national level. This article will examine recent elections in Europe, with a focus on the 141 Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

Terri E. Givens European Parliament (EP) elections of 2009 and the most recent legislative elections in France and Britain. The next section will begin by examining some of the more recent literature on the radical right. The article will then look at recent elections for the European Parliament and legislative elections in the United Kingdom and France. In conclusion, it will argue the radical right has clearly gained strength in their electoral support in the last decade and the prospects for their electoral success increase in a time of economic crisis and fiscal austerity. As voters become disenchanted with governing parties and austerity measures, the alternatives will be parties such as those in the radical right that can tap into the public s fears for its economic well-being, the realities of high unemployment, and the influx of migrants from both inside and outside of the EU. This has been seen in the case of rising support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the long-term success of the French National Front, both parties have capitalized on economic discontent and fear of immigration. Recent Literature 142 The study of the radical right in Europe took off in the mid-1990s with several books that focused on how and why radical right parties were finding success in Europe. Part of the challenge was defining these parties for example, in his book The Radical Right in Western Europe, Herbert Kitschelt argues that it was a party s approach either populist (appealing to more moderate voters) or extreme (targeting far right voters) that determined whether or not it would be able to win votes. 4 Other studies focused on what defined a breakthrough for a particular party. 5 By the early 2000s, one of the key themes was comparing parties across countries and trying to determine the main factors behind their successes in some countries such as in the case of the Austrian Freedom Party or their lack of success in others as in the case of the Republikaner in Germany. Many of these studies focused on the strategies both mainstream parties and their radical right challengers pursued and the context in which they competed for votes. Now, well into the twenty-first century, these parties have been around long enough to allow for more detailed analyses of their development and electoral success, as well as for the creation of a category of parties for which an anti-immigration stance is a key component of their profile. In an article on the impact of the extreme right on immigration policy, Martin Schain examines the FN in France as an agent of electoral realignment. He argues that the FN succeeded in realigning voting and issue patterns, as well as the relationship among parties in France. 6 He finds that the electoral the brown journal of world affairs

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis success of the FN forced parties on the right and left to take on the issue of immigration, thus impacting the policy agenda. He notes: The dynamics of party competition resulted in redefinition of the issue of immigration in national politics, from a labor market problem, to a problem of integration and national identity, to problems of education, housing, law and order, and citizenship. 7 Although he focuses on the extreme right in France, Schain argues that the French case has implications for comparative study. He notes that in virtually every case where there has been an electoral breakthrough of the extreme-right, established parties have reacted by co-opting some aspects of their program in an attempt to undermine their support. 8 Other examples come from countries where radical right parties have actually become part of government, such as in Austria and Denmark. In general, political parties have rarely argued over whether there should be more immigration control. This makes it rather difficult to tie immigration control directly to the rise of the radical right; there certainly can be no clear claim of causality. However, it is clear that the time period during which the radical right has been more active has seen more restrictive immigration policies developed not only at the national level but also across the entire European Union. David Art takes on the challenge of explaining the development of radical right parties in 11 countries in Western Europe. Specifically, he focuses on countries with significant immigrant communities since he is mainly concerned with parties that have an anti-immigration platform. The other two criteria for his case selection are that the countries have populations larger than one million and have been democratic since 1945. This leaves him with 17 cases to examine a rather large number, given that his main tool is interviews with party members. Art s analysis attempts to define the key factors that lead to the success or failure of radical right parties. What is unique about Art s approach is that he focuses not just on cases where radical right parties have had at least some type of high profile presence (Austria and Denmark, where they were supporting coalition governments), but also on examples of parties that had relatively little electoral success, such as the Belgian National Front and Sweden Democrats. He defines success as electoral persistence, stating that successful parties are those that received 5% of the vote in three successive national parliamentary elections. Unsuccessful parties are those that did not. 9 He also argues that a successful radical right party has a strong party organization while an unsuccessful party has a weak party organization. Art is to be commended for eschewing a countrybased case study approach, having conducted 140 interviews with radical right party activists across Europe. Instead, he groups the parties by type, beginning 143 Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

Terri E. Givens with those that he considers failures. Art s analysis concludes that it is historical legacies and political culture that are the critical intervening variables between socio-structural transformation and political outcomes. 10 More recent studies have also been able to focus on the role and impact of radical right parties in elected office. For example, de Lange examines radical right wing parties in such a context, and argues that The rise of RRWPs has shifted the balance of power in Western European parliaments to the right and has therefore provided some mainstream parties with new coalition alternatives. 11 Although there have been many instances of radical right parties in government, they are still not considered as potential partners in France or the United Kingdom, despite their success in European parliament elections. In the next section, I examine support for the radical right in the 2009 European Parliament election and contrast that with the United Kingdom and French national elections. European Parliament, U.K., and French Elections 144 The European Parliament elections of 2009 were the first major elections since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008 and provided an effective tool for gauging popular support for the radical right. European Parliament elections do not carry the same weight as national parliament elections: turnout is much lower than in national parliament elections, and authors such as Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt have shown that these elections are viewed as second order elections where small parties are more likely to win seats. 12 In addition, the elections in the United Kingdom in 2010 and in France in 2012 were also important for gauging support for the radical right as these parties, particularly the British National Party (BNP), tried to capitalize on their gains in the 2009 European Parliament election. European Parliament 2009 Radical right parties are more likely to get votes in European Parliament elections because voters are less likely to vote strategically in these proportional representation elections versus first-past-the-post elections. 13 However, it is clear that there was more going on in the 2009 election. Radical right parties draw on the support of modernization losers working class voters who have lost jobs or become underemployed in the globalization process, and who formerly voted for left parties. These voters tend to be less educated, male, blue collar, the brown journal of world affairs

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis and young. They often vote for radical right parties because of their populist appeals that focus on stopping immigration or deporting immigrants who they argue are taking their jobs. It is difficult to determine the profile of radical right voters in these elections since they are only receiving anywhere from 6 to 15 percent of the vote. However, the fact that the left performed so poorly indicates former left voters may be moving to the right because many are often unemployed, underemployed or fear for their jobs as manufacturing declines and left parties have been unable to find quick solutions. Markets, globalization, and the influence of the European Union have made it difficult for these politicians to implement policies that might help these types of workers in the short term. European Parliament elections may act as referenda on domestic politics, but they are also indicative of trends across Europe. With the exception of the French FN and the Belgian Vlams Belang (Flemish Interest), who saw their vote percentages decline in 2009, many radical right parties saw their vote totals and seats increase. The British National Party won two seats, its first seats ever in a European Parliament election, while the Labour Party saw its lowest percentage since the beginning of the European polls. Overall, left parties saw some of their worst vote totals in European Parliament elections, for example, the German Social Democrats won only 20.8 percent of the vote. Overall, the center-left parties won 161 seats versus 263 seats for the center-right parties in the 736-member European Parliament. 14 After the election, the radical right parties formed two party groups in the European Parliament. The first group, the Alliance of European National Movements, is composed of four parties: Jobbik from Hungary, Tricolor Flame from Italy, Attack Political Party from Bulgaria, and the British National Party from the United Kingdom. It also includes individual members such as Jean-Marie Le Pen of the French FN. The second group is the European Alliance for Freedom, which includes members of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) (Franz Obermayr is the alliance s president), the Belgian Vlaams Belang (with Philip Claeys as vice president) and the French FN s Marine Le Pen (also vice president), and the Swedish Democrats. 15 The question is what these results indicate in terms of voters feelings about the global economic downturn, immigration, the European Union, and Turkey joining the EU. It would appear that these election results have been influenced by the global economic downturn. The history of immigration politics shows that electorates may be more likely to respond to xenophobic messages during a time Many mainstream right politicians have taken on the language of the far right. 145 Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

Terri E. Givens of economic difficulty, as during the economic downturn of the mid-1980s. 16 As noted above, many mainstream right politicians have taken on some of the language of the far right, calling for an end to multiculturalism and tougher laws on immigration control. The overall success of mainstream conservative parties indicates that there is a clear preference for the policies of the mainstream right during this recession. However, this has also lead to success of the radical right, and it is clear that these parties are maintaining support across many countries. The 2010 United Kingdom Election 146 The 2010 parliamentary election in the United Kingdom was seen as a referendum on the policies of the Labour government under the leadership of both former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his predecessor Tony Blair. The election of that year ended up being historic in a number of ways. It would be the first election since 1918 to result in a hung parliament with no party able to form a majority government, resulting in a coalition government between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. As expected, the result led to a shift in power from left to right, with the unpopular Prime Minister Gordon Brown unable to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives were focused on eliminating the budget deficit and cutting spending, while the Labour party was focused on stimulating the economy through increasing public spending before focusing on cutting the budget deficit. Given the ongoing economic crisis in Europe, immigration did not top the agendas for the main parties competing in the 2010 election; however, almost all parties called for reductions in the number of legal immigrants entering the country. The main radical right parties in the election were the British National Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). UKIP focused on the fact that the EU had led Britain to lose control of its borders and called for leaving the EU to end mass, uncontrolled immigration. 17 The BNP characterized immigration as an invasion and called for putting the interests of the British people first. 18 Neither party was able to win a seat due to the nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system, which favors the larger parties. Despite focusing their efforts on a few constituencies, the BNP and UKIP were unable to attract enough voters to win a seat. Overall, UKIP won 3.1 percent of the vote and the BNP won 1.9 percent. On the other hand, in the European Parliament election of 2009, UKIP won 16.5 percent of the vote and 13 seats (the same number of seats as Labour) and the BNP won 6.2 percent of the vote and two the brown journal of world affairs

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis seats the first time they ever won seats. 19 In the case of the United Kingdom, it is clear that strategic voting and the role of EP elections as second order elections played a role in these outcomes. Despite the results of the 2010 legislative election, these parties persist because of their appeal to voters concerned about immigration and EU membership, which has been accentuated by the fiscal crisis. In the fall of 2012, UKIP leader Nigel Farage was in the headlines because of the debate on the possibility of a referendum on the United Kingdom s EU membership. Though the main argument on strategic voting seems to hold in the case of the U.K. national parliament elections, these parties have gained support in European parliament elections by taking stances against immigration and membership in the EU, which allow them to maintain a presence in the electoral arena. The 2012 France Election As the candidates for the two main parties, Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement, UMP) and Francois Hollande of the Parti Socialiste (Socialist Party) were expected to advance to the second round of the French presidential election in 2012. However, polls did not predict that nearly 20 percent of the votes would go to the candidate for the French Front National, Marine Le Pen. This is much higher than what her father the historical founder and leader of the party received in his most successful election, the second round of the 2002 presidential election against ultimate victor former President Jacques Chirac. It is clear that this was a rebuke of Sarkozy, who had been trying to court far right voters with a tough stance on immigration policy during the last few weeks of the campaign. 20 Voters chose the candidate with the tougher stance, and this may eventually have an impact on policy, although immigration has not been high on the agenda for 2012 winner Hollande, who needs to first focus on other parts of the economy. This vote in the presidential election gave a boost to the National Front as it headed into the legislative campaign. Parties in France tend to use the first round of the two-round legislative election as a sort of primary whereby weaker candidates agree to drop out in order to give the top candidates from either the left or the right a better chance of winning. 21 In past elections, the mainstream right has said that they would not cooperate with candidates from the National Front, which has cost the right seats. The mainstream right held firm again in 2012, refusing to go into second-round deals with FN candidates. This caused the FN to win only one seat in the legislative election, and even Marine Le Pen 147 Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

Terri E. Givens lost in her constituency. However, there is no guarantee that the mainstream right will be able to maintain this stance in future elections, given the disarray of the UMP after the 2012 election. Le Pen s results indicate increased support for the FN and give heart to far right politicians in other countries. As mentioned above, the FN did not perform as well in the 2009 European Parliament elections as in previous elections, winning only 6.3 percent of the vote and 3 seats as compared to the 2004 European Parliament election when they won 9.8 percent of the vote and seven seats (including a seat for Marine Le Pen). 22 However, the 2012 presidential election indicates that their support has rebounded and that Marine Le Pen remains a popular figure for the radical right. Conclusion 148 As the literature on radical right parties has grown and their electoral success has persisted over the last 10 years, it has been clear that these parties are adapting to their electoral situations and are using local, regional, and European Parliament elections to maintain the interest of their current supporters and to attract potential new ones. The issue of immigration has intensified in many ways with the euro crisis, particularly in places like Greece and Spain. Greece s Golden Dawn has taken a very hardline position on immigration and may have an impact on policy after winning 18 seats in the June 2012 parliamentary elections. However, demonstrations against the party in Athens indicate that it may not be able to increase its appeal. The ongoing success of radical right parties depends on the actions of mainstream parties, the nature of electoral systems, and the public appeal of the positions they take. European parliamentary elections will likely continue to be fertile ground for these parties as the euro crisis continues to take its toll on the economies of countries that impose austerity measures. High levels of unemployment can play into the hands of parties that scapegoat immigrants. The ongoing basis of support for radical right parties is clearly an area that merits ongoing research, and it will be important to examine how mainstream parties evolve in their approaches to these parties. Left parties will need to find a way to appeal to traditional working class electorates, as well as immigrant and ethnic minority voters as they increase in numbers. Right par- European parliamentary elections will likely continue to be fertile ground for radical right parties as the euro crisis continues to take its toll. the brown journal of world affairs

The Radical Right and Immigration in an Era of Economic Crisis ties will also need to address minority voters, as demographic shifts, similar to those occurring in the United States, impact future elections. This may lead to a shift away from the issues highlighted by the radical right and a greater focus W on issues related to job growth and civil rights. A Notes 1. Gilles Ivaldi, The Populist Radical Right in European Elections 1979 2009, in The Extreme Right in Europe, ed. Uwe Backes and Patrick Moreau (Göttingen: Vandenhoek and Ruprecht, 2011): 16 17. 2. Terri Givens, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), 3. 3. In this context, second-order elections are those in which voters feel they will not have as much impact as in first-order national parliamentary elections, and therefore are more likely to vote for extreme parties, particularly if they are dissatisfied with the parties in government. See: Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt, Nine Second-Order National Elections A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results, European Journal of Political Research 8 (1980): 3 44. 4. Herbert Kitschelt, The Radical Right in Western Europe (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1995). 5. Martin Schain, Aristide Zolberg, and Patrick Hossay, Palgrave Macmillan, eds., Shadows Over Europe: The Development and Impact of the Extreme Right in Western Europe, (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2002). 6. Martin A. Schain, The Extreme Right and Immigration Policy-making: Measuring Direct and Indirect Effects, West European Politics 29, no. 2 (2006): 278. 7. Ibid., p. 283. 8. Ibid., p. 286. 9. David Art, Inside the Radical Right: The Development of Anti-Immigrant Parties in Western Europe (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011), 6. 10. Ibid., p. 231. 11. Sarah L. de Lange, Radical Right Wing Populist Parties in Office A Cross-National Comparison in The Extreme Right in Europe, ed. Uwe Backes and Patrick Moreau (Göttingen: Vandenhoek and Ruprecht, 2011), 194. 12. Reif and Schmitt, Nine Second-Order National Elections. 13. Givens, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. 14. Stefan Nicola, Conservatives boosted in European elections. UPI.com, June 8, 2009, http:// www.upi.com/top_news/special/2009/06/08/conservatives-boosted-in-european-elections/upi- 95031244494246. 15. Ophélie Spanneut, Europe s two far-right parties in hot seat, Europolitics, January 21, 2013, http://www.europolitics.info/institutions/europe-s-two-far-right-parties-in-hot-seat-art347287-39.html. 16. Givens, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. 17. Immigration and Asylum: UKIP Policy, United Kingdom Independence Party, March 18, 2010, http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/1499-immigration-ukip-policy. 18. Manifesto, British National Party, http://www.bnp.org.uk/manifesto. 19. European Election 2009: UK Results, BBC, June 8, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/ bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm. 20. Daniel Flynn and Brian Love, Sarkozy courts French far right after Hollande win, Reuters, April 23, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/23/us-france-election-idusbre83i0ez20120423. 21. Givens, Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. 22. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, France: European Parliament Elections January 23, 2010, http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/country/france/european_parliament_elections.html. 149 Spring/Summer 2013 volume xix, issue i1

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