November 2017 Toplines The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults GenForward is a survey associated with the University of Chicago Interviews: 10/26-11/10/2017 Total N: 1,876 adults Age Range: 18-34 NOTE: All results indicate percentages unless otherwise labeled.
MARGIN OF ERROR ESTIMATES (% pts) Group Estimate Full Sample +/- 3.92 African Americans +/- 5.85 Asian Americans +/- 8.75 Latinxs +/- 7.05 Whites +/- 5.85 NOTE: All estimates are calculated at the 95% level of confidence 2
Q0. Did you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or not vote in the 2016 presidential election? Hillary Clinton 53 46 30 31 35 Donald Trump 3 16 7 33 22 Someone else 13 5 11 13 12 Did not vote in the 2016 presidential election 31 33 51 23 31 DON T KNOW * * * * * SKIP/REFUSED * - - * * Q1. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve 3 5 3 7 6 Somewhat approve 5 12 6 23 16 Neither approve nor disapprove 9 16 14 17 15 Somewhat disapprove 14 22 18 16 17 Strongly disapprove 69 45 58 36 46 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED * * 1 * * Q2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Strongly approve 1 2 1 2 2 Somewhat approve 7 10 8 9 8 Neither approve nor disapprove 25 21 28 29 28 Somewhat disapprove 23 35 33 39 35 Strongly disapprove 44 31 29 20 26 DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 3
Q3. For both parties, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that party. If you don t know enough about the party to have an opinion, you can say that too. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Q3A. The Republican Party Very favorable 2 4 3 6 5 Somewhat favorable 8 18 17 26 21 Somewhat unfavorable 27 22 22 23 23 Very unfavorable 44 45 35 33 36 Don t know enough to say 18 9 21 12 14 SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 2 * 1 Q3B. The Democratic Party Very favorable 22 11 12 6 10 Somewhat favorable 39 47 40 30 34 Somewhat unfavorable 17 18 19 26 23 Very unfavorable 6 14 10 26 19 Don t know enough to say 16 8 19 13 14 SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 * * * Q4. Do you think the Democratic Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes 67 69 56 46 53 No 31 29 40 54 46 DON T KNOW * - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 3 1 1 Q5. Do you think the Republican Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes 17 25 18 35 28 No 82 74 79 64 71 DON T KNOW - - 1 * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 3 1 1 4
Q6. Would you say things in this country are Off on the wrong track 78 61 64 62 65 Generally headed in the right direction 8 19 12 18 15 Not sure 13 18 23 20 19 SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 2 * 1 Q7. How would you describe the nation s economy these days? Would you say Very good 3 12 2 6 5 Somewhat good 14 23 28 33 28 Neither good nor poor 27 29 30 24 26 Somewhat poor 26 18 20 22 22 Very poor 18 9 10 11 12 Not sure 11 4 9 5 7 SKIP/REFUSED * 5 1 * 1 Q8. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you about your personal future think about things like finding and keeping a good job, paying off your student loan debt, and being able to afford the lifestyle you want? Very optimistic 27 17 19 20 20 Somewhat optimistic 29 34 38 42 38 Neither optimistic nor pessimistic 20 18 21 17 18 Somewhat pessimistic 16 20 13 15 15 Very pessimistic 6 7 6 7 7 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED 1 3 3 * 1 5
Q9. Next we would like for you to think about the upcoming congressional elections that will be held in 2018. In the congressional elections in 2018, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate? Democratic Candidate 53 46 45 29 37 Republican Candidate 7 11 11 26 19 Neither/Not Sure 38 42 42 45 43 SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 3 * 1 If Neither/Not Sure Q9A. Do you lean more towards planning to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? African Americans Asian Americans Democratic Candidate 31 49 36 28 32 Republican Candidate 2 7 5 24 16 Neither 62 40 52 48 50 SKIP/REFUSED 4 4 7 * 2 N= 194 96 216 214 742 6
Q10A. What do you think are the three most important problems facing this country today? Please select which three of these are the most important. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Abortion 2 1 3 7 5 National debt 9 11 10 17 14 Environment and climate change 9 19 18 20 18 Gay rights 4 * 3 3 3 Gun control 25 27 20 12 17 Health care 32 35 32 41 37 Immigration 7 18 42 12 18 Poverty 20 6 7 11 11 Income inequality 13 21 13 13 14 Unemployment 14 8 10 12 11 Economic growth 9 17 7 16 13 Military strength 1 2 5 4 4 Morality and religion in society 4 5 2 9 6 Racism 47 29 27 15 23 Social Security 3 6 5 7 6 Taxes 8 12 11 17 14 Women s rights 5 4 6 7 6 Crime 15 8 7 13 11 Foreign policy 2 14 8 6 6 Education 23 24 22 24 23 Terrorism and homeland security 10 12 20 22 19 Police brutality 26 8 12 8 12 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED 1 3 1 * 1 7
Q10B. Please rank these three problems facing this country today in order of their importance to you. [SHOW ITEMS SELECTED IN Q13A] African American adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion * 1 1 National debt 1 2 6 Environment and climate change 3 3 3 Gay rights 1 1 3 Gun control 9 10 6 Health care 12 10 9 Immigration 2 2 4 Poverty 7 7 5 Income inequality 3 4 6 Unemployment 2 6 6 Economic growth 2 2 4 Military strength * * * Morality and religion in society 3 * * Racism 23 15 9 Social Security 1 2 1 Taxes 1 2 5 Women s rights 2 2 1 Crime 5 5 5 Foreign policy * 1 1 Education 9 9 5 Terrorism and homeland security 3 3 4 Police brutality 7 9 10 N= 541 541 541 8
Asian American adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion - - 1 National debt 2 3 6 Environment and climate change 9 4 6 Gay rights - * - Gun control 14 4 10 Health care 16 10 9 Immigration 3 8 7 Poverty 2 2 1 Income inequality 2 11 7 Unemployment 2 2 4 Economic growth 9 6 2 Military strength * * 1 Morality and religion in society 3 1 1 Racism 10 12 6 Social Security * 2 3 Taxes 3 7 2 Women s rights 1 1 2 Crime 1 5 2 Foreign policy 5 3 5 Education 5 9 11 Terrorism and homeland security 5 2 4 Police brutality 4 1 3 N= 250 250 250 9
Latinx adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 1 * 1 National debt 1 4 5 Environment and climate change 6 7 5 Gay rights 1 1 2 Gun control 4 10 6 Health care 9 11 12 Immigration 20 14 8 Poverty 2 2 2 Income inequality 1 4 8 Unemployment 3 4 3 Economic growth 2 2 3 Military strength 1 1 2 Morality and religion in society 1 1 * Racism 12 7 8 Social Security 1 2 2 Taxes 4 3 4 Women s rights 1 2 3 Crime 2 1 4 Foreign policy 2 2 4 Education 9 8 5 Terrorism and homeland security 15 2 4 Police brutality 1 8 3 N= 508 508 508 10
White adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 2 3 National debt 6 4 7 Environment and climate change 9 5 6 Gay rights 1 * 2 Gun control 4 3 6 Health care 17 16 8 Immigration 2 2 7 Poverty 4 4 3 Income inequality 4 4 6 Unemployment 2 6 4 Economic growth 6 5 5 Military strength 1 1 2 Morality and religion in society 5 3 1 Racism 4 7 4 Social security 1 3 3 Taxes 3 5 9 Women s rights 1 1 4 Crime 2 4 6 Foreign policy 1 3 2 Education 8 11 6 Terrorism and homeland security 13 6 3 Police brutality 3 2 3 N= 527 527 527 11
All adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 1 2 National debt 4 4 6 Environment and climate change 8 5 5 Gay rights 1 1 2 Gun control 5 5 6 Health care 15 14 9 Immigration 6 5 7 Poverty 4 4 3 Income inequality 3 5 6 Unemployment 2 5 4 Economic growth 5 4 4 Military strength 1 1 2 Morality and religion in society 4 2 1 Racism 9 8 6 Social Security 1 2 3 Taxes 3 4 7 Women s rights 1 2 3 Crime 3 4 5 Foreign policy 2 2 3 Education 8 10 6 Terrorism and homeland security 12 5 3 Police brutality 3 4 4 N= 1876 1876 1876 12
Q45. Does who is president make a big difference, some difference or no difference on your own personal life? Big difference 38 41 36 23 29 Some difference 35 44 35 55 47 No difference 25 12 26 22 22 DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 3 3 * 1 Q46. Since Donald Trump was elected, would you say you ve become more interested in politics, less interested in politics, or has your level of interest in politics not really changed? More interested in politics 28 31 36 35 33 Less interested in politics 31 30 27 22 25 Interest hasn t really changed 39 35 33 43 40 DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 4 4 * 1 Q47. Which of the following best explains your feelings about the job that President Trump is doing so far as president? Better than you expected 3 12 4 11 8 About what you expected 37 32 31 52 44 Worse than you expected 57 52 61 36 45 DON T KNOW * - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 4 4 1 2 13
Q48. Do you think that Donald Trump has a new approach to politics in Washington or Donald Trump s approach to politics in Washington is business as usual? African Americans Asian Americans Donald Trump has a new approach to politics in Washington 32 46 33 58 48 Donald Trump s approach to politics in Washington is business as usual 64 49 60 41 50 DON T KNOW 1 - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 3 5 6 1 3 Q49. Do you think that President Donald Trump will be president for the entire four years of his term, or not? Yes 27 42 29 59 47 No, he will be impeached 51 32 37 24 31 No, he will resign 7 8 18 11 11 No, he will leave office for some other reason 13 13 12 6 9 DON T KNOW * - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 4 4 * 2 Q50. In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? Parties do adequate job 28 26 29 24 26 Third party is needed 69 69 64 75 71 DON T KNOW - - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 3 5 6 1 3 14
Q51. What best describes your feelings about what Donald Trump is doing as President? Excited 2 7 3 5 4 Optimistic 10 12 9 29 20 Concerned 45 44 53 35 41 Scared 41 33 31 30 32 DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 3 5 1 2 Q52. How do you think Donald Trump will go down in history as president? A great president 2 7 3 8 6 A good president 2 8 3 12 8 An average president 9 10 12 23 17 A not very good president 12 23 24 15 17 A poor president 73 47 55 42 50 DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 6 4 * 2 15
DEMOGRAPHICS PID1. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Democrat 54 43 40 26 34 Republican 5 14 13 27 19 Independent 22 25 25 32 29 Something Else 17 17 19 16 17 DON'T KNOW - - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 3 * 1 If independent, something else, or DK/REF in PID1 PIDI. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Closer to the Republican Party 5 13 8 29 20 Closer to the Democratic Party 34 59 37 34 37 Neither 58 24 47 37 41 DON T KNOW - - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 3 5 6 * 2 N= 203 105 230 229 794 If Democrat in PID1 PIDA. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? Strong Democrat 43 41 31 51 44 Not very strong Democrat 56 59 68 49 56 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED * - * - * N= 310 118 216 151 813 16
If Republican in PID1 PIDB. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? Strong Republican 57 29 27 47 44 Not very strong Republican 43 71 73 50 54 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED - - - 3 2 N= 28 27 62 147 269 PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) 69 70 59 42 52 Strong Democrat 24 18 13 13 15 Not very strong Democrat 31 26 28 13 20 Closer to the Democratic Party 14 26 18 16 17 Independent/None Don t lean 24 10 23 18 19 Republican (NET) 7 20 18 40 29 Closer to the Republican Party 2 6 4 14 9 Not very strong Republican 2 10 10 13 11 Strong Republican 3 4 4 13 9 N= 536 244 496 525 1849 AGE 18-22 41 34 38 34 36 23-26 23 23 23 25 24 27-30 21 26 22 25 24 31-34 16 16 17 16 16 GENDER Male 49 49 51 51 50 Female 51 51 49 49 50 17
RACE/ETHNICITY 1 All adults African American 14 Asian American 7 Latinx 21 White 56 Other 1 N= 1876 MARITAL STATUS Married 13 24 29 28 26 Widowed * - * * * Divorced 3 9 2 3 3 Separated 2 * 1 1 1 Never married 67 58 50 56 56 Living with partner 14 9 19 12 14 EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed 57 62 59 69 65 Not employed 43 38 41 31 35 EDUCATION African Americans Asian Americans Less than a high school diploma 11 1 20 8 11 High school graduate or equivalent 34 21 33 26 28 Some college 41 18 37 41 39 College graduate or above 14 60 10 25 23 1 All of the African American, Asian American, White, and Other respondents do not identify as Latinx. 18
INCOME Under $10,000 22 4 13 5 9 $10,000 to under $20,000 11 7 11 9 9 $20,000 to under $30,000 16 18 17 12 14 $30,000 to under $40,000 13 4 16 12 13 $40,000 to under $50,000 8 7 12 10 10 $50,000 to under $75,000 16 25 17 15 16 $75,000 to under $100,000 5 13 7 11 9 $100,000 to under $150,000 6 14 5 17 13 $150,000 or more 4 8 1 9 6 19
UNWEIGHTED DEMOGRAPHICS UNWEIGHTED PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) 75 72 61 46 62 Strong Democrat 28 20 14 15 19 Not very strong Democrat 30 29 30 14 25 Closer to the Democratic Party 17 23 17 17 18 Independent/None Don t lean 17 11 21 14 17 Republican (NET) 8 18 18 40 21 Closer to the Republican Party 3 7 6 12 7 Not very strong Republican 2 8 7 15 8 Strong Republican 3 3 5 13 6 UNWEIGHTED AGE 18-22 39 51 38 28 37 23-26 24 27 22 20 22 27-30 22 16 22 28 23 31-34 15 6 18 25 18 UNWEIGHTED GENDER African Americans Asian Americans Male 42 47 50 49 47 Female 58 53 50 51 53 UNWEIGHTED RACE/ETHNICITY All adults African American 29 Asian American 13 Latinx 27 White 28 Other 3 N= 1876 20
UNWEIGHTED MARITAL STATUS Married 12 13 23 32 21 Widowed * - * * * Divorced 3 2 3 2 2 Separated 2 * 1 1 1 Never married 72 80 57 53 62 Living with partner 11 5 17 13 12 UNWEIGHTED EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed 59 62 63 75 65 Not employed 41 38 37 25 35 UNWEIGHTED EDUCATION African Americans Asian Americans 21 Less than a high school diploma 6 2 13 3 7 High school graduate or equivalent 26 18 24 17 22 Some college 49 33 49 39 44 College graduate or above 19 46 14 41 28 UNWEIGHTED INCOME Under $10,000 17 6 12 6 11 $10,000 to under $20,000 13 7 14 10 12 $20,000 to under $30,000 19 13 18 9 15 $30,000 to under $40,000 13 8 13 11 12 $40,000 to under $50,000 8 9 12 10 10 $50,000 to under $75,000 16 20 16 19 17 $75,000 to under $100,000 7 13 8 13 10 $100,000 to under $150,000 5 17 6 13 9 $150,000 or more 1 8 2 8 4
STUDY METHODOLOGY The GenForward November survey is a project lead by Professor Cathy J. Cohen at the University of Chicago, with The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Interviews were conducted with a representative sample from GenForward SM, a nationally representative survey panel of adults ages 18-34 recruited and administered by NORC at the University of Chicago and funded by grants to the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Ford Foundation. A total of 1,876 interviews were conducted between October 26 and Novemeber 10, 2017 with adults ages 18-34 representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including completed interviews with 541 African American young adults, 250 Asian American young adults, 508 Latinx young adults, 527 white young adults, and 50 young adults with other racial and ethnic backgrounds. The survey was offered in English and Spanish and via telephone and web modes. The GenForward survey was built from two sample sources: Sixty-seven percent of the completed interviews are sourced from NORC s AmeriSpeak Panel. AmeriSpeak is a probability based panel that also uses address-based sample but sourced from the NORC National Frame with enhanced sample coverage. During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection and then contacted by U.S. mail, email, telephone, and field interviewers (face-to-face). Thirty-three percent of the completed interviews are sourced from the Black Youth Project (BYP) panel of young adults recruited by NORC. The BYP sample is from a probability-based household panel that uses an address-based sample from a registered voter database of the entire U.S. Households were selected using stratified random sampling to support over-sampling of households with African Americans, Latinxs, and Asian Americans ages 18-34. NORC contacted sampled households by U.S. mail and by telephone, inviting them to register and participate in public opinion surveys twice a month. Panelists on both the BYP and AmeriSpeak panels are invited to register for the panel via the web or by telephone to participate in public opinion surveys. Of the 1,876 completed interviews in the GenForward November survey, 94 percent were completed by web and 6 percent by telephone. The survey completion rate is 26.6 percent. The weighted AAPOR RR3 panel recruitment rate is 21.3 percent and the weighted household panel retention rate is 88.9 percent, for a cumulative AAPOR Response Rate 3 of 5 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.92 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. Among subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 5.85 percentage points for African Americans, +/- 8.75 percentage points for Asian Americans, +/- 7.05 percentage points for Latinxs, and +/- 5.85 percentage points for whites. To encourage cooperation, respondents were offered incentives for completing the survey that ranged from the cash-equivalent of $3 to the cash-equivalent of $10. The interviews from the two probability-based sample sources were combined for statistical weighting and analysis. The combined panel samples provide sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. 22
household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. The statistical weights incorporate the appropriate probability of selection for the BYP and AmeriSpeak samples, nonresponse adjustments, and also, raking ratio adjustments to population benchmarks for 18-34-year-old adults. A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any non-coverage or under- and over-sampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-34, and the 18-34-year-old populations for African Americans, Latinxs, Asian Americans, and non-latinx whites, were used for all analyses. 23