Nationalisms in East Asia Causes, Consequences & Prospects Tuong Vu, University of Oregon
Overview: New nationalism A revival or product of the old nationalism Failures/problems caused by the old End of Cold War Democratization trend Rise of China Effects of new nationalism Relations between China and SE Asia (Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia)
Beijing 05/1999
Anti-Japanese protest about Senkaku/Diaoyu in Beijing, 2012
Textbook controversies
Seoul, 4/2015
Prime Minister Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine in 2013
Hanoi, 12/2007
Ho Chi Minh City, 03/2008
Manila 08/2009 Protest against USS George Washington s visit
Manila 02/2014
Phnom Penh, 01/2003 and Preah Vihear Temple, 07/2008
Jakarta, 09/2009
Nation Nation: a political community of people sharing a history, culture, language A modern concept relying on both facts & imagination Ex: Vietnam s 4,000 years of struggle against China
Source: Hui (2000)
Dynasty or Period (Southern Frontier) Jiao revolts against Chinese rule or Wars among frontier polities Time span 219 BCE: Giao Chỉ est. 207-111 BCE: Triệu/Zhao dynasty 192 CE: Linyi est. 207-196 BCE, 185-180 BCE, 115?-111 BCE 40-43 CE: Trưng sisters 100: Nhật nam 137: Khu Liên 144 Cửu Chân 157: Chu Đạt 178-182: Lương Long 245-248 Lady Triệu 248: Linyi s raid 263-271: Lữ Hưng Funan emerged 344-359, 399-405, 407, 413-420, 424, 435-446: war with Linyi 22 4 1 2 1? 1? 4 4 1 7 35?
Dynasty or Period (So. Frontier) Viet revolts against Chinese rule or Wars among frontier polities Time span 938-944: Ngô Quyền 945-967: warlords rule 468: Lý Trường Nhân 542-547: Lý Bí 543: Lý Bí fought Linyi 571?-603: Lý Phật Tử Chenla annexed Funan 650?: Linyi (Hoàn vương) annexed by Chenla 685-687: Lý Tử Tiên 722: Mai Thúc Loan 767: Sailendra s raid 791-798?: Phùng Hưng 819-820?: Dương Thanh 862-865: Nanzhao s invasion 938: Ngô Quyền s victory over Southern Han 1 6 1 32? 2? 1 8? 3 3 1
East Asia s Old Nationalism Imported & imagined under colonial rule Powerful ideology motivated millions Ho Chi Minh, Emilio Aguinaldo, Sukarno
Promises & Achievements Promises: independence, liberty, happiness Achievements: Defeat of colonial and imperial forces Formation of independent nation-states
Not a panacea for all problems Only formal national independence Independent nations but weak states Independence for large ethnic groups but not for many ethnic minorities Unresolved border issues Poverty, inequality, economic stagnation
Legacies of nationalist mobilization Popular myths Intense personal & communal experiences By-products: military or personal rule, communist dictatorship, one-party authoritarian system
Country Regime type Singapore One-party authoritarian rule Malaysia One-party authoritarian rule South Korea Personal rule (1948-60), military rule (1961-88) Taiwan Military/one-party rule (1946-91) Thailand Military rule (1947-73, 76-88) Indonesia Personal & military rule (1959-98) Philippines Personal dictatorship (1966-86) Burma/Myanmar Military rule (1962-2012) China Communist dictatorship (1949- ) Vietnam Communist dictatorship (1954/1975- ) Cambodia Communist dictatorship (1975-91) Laos Communist dictatorship (1975- )
Nationalism, War, and Affluence Rank by national income (2000) Nationalist wars? 1 Singapore No 2 Taiwan No 3 South Korea Yes 4 Malaysia No 5 Thailand No 6 China Yes 7 Philippines No 8 Indonesia Yes 9 Vietnam Yes 10 Cambodia Yes 11 Laos Yes 12 Burma/Myanmar Yes
End of Cold War in communist countries Opened up room for new identities Religious revivalism Money creed National pride/humiliation Allowed economic development, liberalization & democratization Rise of civil society Cambodia
In anti-communist countries Democratization: Taiwan: native Taiwanese political power S. Korea: rise of the left Thailand: rise of farmers power Indonesia: rise of Islam Philippines: fall of Marcos dictatorship Impact of mass politics:
Rise of China Top down nationalism (since 1990s) Century of humiliation The Chinese dream (since 2012) Assertive policy on territorial issues Popular nationalism (since 2000s)
Favorable view of US, China, Japan (2014) Viewed in Favorable view of the US Favorable view of China Favorable view of Japan Japan 69% 5% -- South Korea 78 46 22% Indonesia 61 70 77 Malaysia 55 81 75 Philippines 85 48 80 Vietnam 78 19 77 China 40 -- 8
Which country is the greatest ally/threat (2014)? Viewed in Ally Threat Japan US (62%) China (68%) South Korea US (68) North Korea (36) Indonesia US (28) US (25) Malaysia China (27) US (26) Philippines US (83) China (58) Vietnam US (30) China (74) China Russia (25) US (36)
Effects of new nationalisms Uniting compatriots divided by Cold War ideologies Arms race, tensions, possible border wars Future democratization Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) & Xi Jinping (CCP) (11/2015)
Ways to improve stability Change the ways patriotism is taught Acknowledge popular nationalist sentiments as legitimate Involve civil society in national, bilateral, and multilateral discussions to the extent possible
China, SE Asia & the South China Sea
China & SE Asia: Born for each other? China Population: 1.2 b. Size of economy: $11.4 T ASEAN s largest trade partner (US is 4 th place) Interests in SE Asia: mineral resources & markets for Chinese goods & services Communist dictatorship Lots of cash & willing to offer deals Willing to befriend dictators Southeast Asia Population: 600 m. Size of economy: $2.4 T China s 3rd largest trade partner Interests in China: loans, aid, investment in infrastructure & mining Most ranked high in corruption but low in political freedom and human rights Majority one-party regimes; a few weak democracies
Historical legacies Premodern China was regional hegemon Premodern rivalries among middle powers: Konbaung, Chakri, Nguyen, etc. Substantial Chinese migration US colonization of Philippines (1899-1947) US involvement in war against communism in Indochina Sino-Vietnamese-Cambodian war (1979-1989)
ASEAN s dilemma Not all members view China as a threat Some suspicious of the US Intense China s diplomatic pressure Concerned but unable to unite against China
Vietnam s complex modern history Communists seized power & led a national and social revolution since 1945 Allied with Soviet Union & China against US & anti-communist South Vietnam (1950s-70s) Allied with Soviet Union against US-China- ASEAN (1980s)
Post-Cold War evolution Since mid-1980s: economic but not political reform Foreign & defense policy: Normalization with China, US, ASEAN Expansion of foreign economic relations Leaders worldview until ~2010: China is ideological comrade & strategic ally US is strategic enemy
Politburo, 1993 In international relations, [our policy] to be friends of all nations in the world community is designed to take advantage of shared interests in concrete issues and concrete policy areas with other nations For the sake of our mission to develop socialism and defend our fatherland, we place friends in different categories, with some closer and others far. By their nature, our long-term allies are the socialist forces (or countries), the communist and worker parties, and movements for national independence and revolutionary and progressive causes. A friend of all nations, but
2014 shock & adjustment
Hanoi s dilemma China Socialist brother Historical debts Largest trade partner United States Largest export market A partner to counter China s threat Threat to territory & security Nationalist protests & pressure Imperialist power Historical enmity Threat to the communist regime
Philippines Historically love-hate relations with the US Presidents make foreign policy Gloria Macapagal- Arroyo Benigno Aquino III Rodrigo Duterte
Manila swings President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001-09) Visited China 12 times Signed Joint Maritime Seismic Undertaking with China to explore oil in contested areas Encouraged Chinese investment President Benigno Aquino III (2010-16) Confronted China in the South China Sea Signed Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with US
President Rodrigo Duterte (2016-22) Local strongman, populist-leftist politician Engage China, challenge US
I will not go to America any more. We will just be insulted there. So, time to say goodbye, my friend. "I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines, and Russia. It's the only way." Duterte (Beijing, Oct 2016)
Dilemma China Important source of capital & aid for development Important trade partner Threat to territorial sovereignty US & Japan Traditional sources of aid & capital Primary trading partners Elites keep strong economic & cultural ties Past resentment
Cambodia Ruling Cambodia People s Party (CPP) has long-term ties with Vietnam CPP dominates politics since 1997 coup PM Hun Sen (since 1985)
Deeply dependent on foreign aid & investment China has replaced US as primary benefactor since coup Strong & pro-western opposition party exploits nationalist claims against Vietnam CNRP Leader Sam Rainsy
Dilemma China Primary trading partner Largest source of aid, FDI, loans, military assistance Support the ruling party & disregard for repression against the opposition Help balance against Vietnam & Thailand--not a target of popular nationalism The US & Japan Important sources of aid & investment Largest markets for Cambodian garments Critical of the ruling party for repression & human rights violations Unable or unwilling to provide military assistance