Russia s managed democracy
Traditional democracies: the four estates parliament: talking shop judiciary: weak, but improved executive: real seat of power press: muted and in state hands
Russian democracy: control over choice executive - presidential decree - general prosecutors office - regional offices corporate apparat: ZAO Kremlin - state-owned companies - oligarch conglomerates
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Parties: Russia politically immature United Russia: party of power Just Russia: socialist version of party of power Liberal right: fragmented Communists: failed to reform
53% of Russians think their vote counts, Youth optimistic QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
Parties: Liberals out of touch with people
Lenin s project Agricultural society no proletariat party leads, creates conditions for communism Marxist-Leninism
Putin s project collapsed military-industrial society no middle class party leads, creates conditions for capitalism/democracy Putin-Smithism
Russia in Context: 1993 Verge of civil war
Control vs Chaos 1993: verge of civil war Russia s geography important factor: hard to rule vs Baltic s regional corruption out of control: Fed treasury regional fragmentation: Tatarstan embassies regional powerbases: oligarchs retreat to regions in 2000 third of fed council members on corporate payroll
Crises 1993 constitutional crisis 1994 Black Tuesday 1995 Gerashchenko cancels 1992 money 1998 August 17 - the big one
Middle class Putin s popularity is genuine, has delivered on what people want interests of the Kremlin and people aligned fast growth underpinned this support, but can t last forever
Russians want continuation of Putin s policy poll Sept 10 The number of Russians who favor the continuation of President Vladimir Putin's political and economic course has grown from 27% to 42% over the past year, a pool conducted by the VTsIOM Public Opinion Studies Center found. The number of Russians who prefer a partial correction of that policy has dropped from 47% to 39%, while the number of those who want a drastic change of policy has fallen from 18% to 10%.
Consumers the big winners Russian average gross monthly wages in June reached RUB13,810 or more than $500 for the first time according to Rosstat
Consumers the big winners
Wealth base is spreading
Interests aligned - for now people/kremlin put stability over freedoms people/kremlin want material and economic growth people/kremlin want to restore Russian national pride no political event to radicalize the people growth of SMEs will be key
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Constitution adopted in 1993 as part of Yeltsin s constitutional coup no one wants Putin to go constitution strengthened by Yeltsin in 1999 and now Putin in 2008 does guarantee voters rights so mechanism is in place for parliamentary democracy to work Putin balances fractions and source of power is popular support
Thank you! Ben Aris editor-in-chief t. +49 172 209 2668 editor@businessneweurope.eu