Britain s Population Exceptionalism within the European Union Introduction The United Kingdom s rate of population growth far exceeds that of most other European countries. This is particularly problematic for a country with a relatively high population density. The average age of a UK citizen is rising more slowly than for most other European countries. Whilst the populations of many European countries are projected to stabilize, and then slowly fall, the UK s population is expected to continue to rise until at least 2050. This report will outline key differences in population growth factors and markers between the UK and other European Union (EU) countries over the last century and into the future. Defining Population Factors Population growth can occur due to two main reasons: natural increase and increased net migration. Natural change encompasses factors such as birth rates, fertility rates, death rates and life expectancy. The total difference between death rate and birth rate equates to the natural increase or decrease. Increased life expectancies will alter the death rates, whilst fertility changes affect total births. Whilst it is a crude measure, natural change is a good indicator for comparing changes in population characteristics between countries and over time. Net migration is the difference between incoming migrants and outgoing emigrants. This can either add or detract from the total population figures and can also affect natural change by affecting birth and death rates. Direct comparisons between the UK and the EU are difficult to make, as much migration takes place within the Union. However, it is possible to compare the net migration figures of major nations within the EU. Population density relates to the number of people per km 2 and will be explored in the context of the continued growth of the UK in comparison to its larger neighbours. Population Change in the UK The UK has one of the largest populations in the EU, second only to Germany. The last 50 years has seen the UK s population grow by 10 million people. Of these, five million were added in the period 2001 to 2014. 1961 to 1971 saw the UK experience a peak in fertility rates, known as the post-war baby boom. This decade saw the highest UK fertility rate in recorded history, reaching 18.8 births per 1000 people in 1964. As the baby boomers aged, the fertility rate began to fall. There was, however, a notable period when the fertility rate rose again the early 2000s. A summary of population characteristics over this period, provided by the World Bank 1, is shown in Figure 1. 1 http://data.worldbank.org/country/united-kingdom 1
Figure 1: Key characteristics of UK population over the last five decades. Much of the population growth noted from 2001 has been from high net migration. This has a double impact, as most migrants are younger than average, thus contributing to an increased number of births. This may partially explain the resurgence in fertility rates since the late 1990s, particularly when you consider the expansion of the EU between 2004 and 2007. Since 2005, net migration has accounted for 69 per cent of the UK s population growth. The contribution of immigration over the last decade to population growth is five times higher than before 2000. In 2013, the UK saw a further 400,000 people added to its population, the equivalent of the population of Bristol. Direct migration accounted for 46 per cent of the growth, although previous migration may have had an impact on natural change. There were 212,000 more births than deaths, whilst net migration stood at 183,400, a slight fall on the previous period. Population growth is not uniform across the UK, with a quarter of the increase (108,000) taking place in London. The growth rate was highest in England, at 0.7 per cent, falling to 0.27 per cent in Scotland, 0.27 per cent in Wales and 0.33 per cent in Northern Ireland. A graph by the Office of National Statistics (OSN) 2 detailing the contribution of natural change and net migration to population growth is shown in Figure 2. 2 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northernireland/2013/sty-population-changes.html 2
Figure 2: The relative and total contributions from natural change and net migration to UK population growth since 1992. Population change in the European Union The EU is a political and economic union of member states across Europe. Formally established in 1993, the EU has continually grown, with Croatia becoming the 28th member in 2013, taking the EU s population to more than 505 million. 2014 saw the population continue to grow, to just below 507 million. When adjusted to take into account new member states, the EU has seen continual growth since 1960, with a total population increase of 100 million people. As a whole, the EU s population forms seven per cent of the world s total. Natural change in the EU population has gradually stabilized over the last 50 years, due to both falling numbers of live births and small increases in total deaths. (See Eurostat graph in Figure 3 3.) The total population growth from natural change has fallen from over eight to almost zero per Figure 3: The falling effect on natural change on population as exemplified by falling births and relatively stable death rates 3 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/file:births_and_deaths,_eu-28,_1961 2012_(1)_(million)_YB14.png 3
thousand people; this trend is expected to continue as baby-boomers across Europe reach late life. Net migration has fluctuated, but since the late 1980s has led to a rise in population growth. With the fall in natural change, population flux in the EU is now almost entirely due to net migration. Recent years have seen growth across the continent and in many of the major European nations. Between 2012 and 2013 the EU grew by more than one million people, of which natural increase accounted for around 5%, while around 95% came from net migration. This contrasts with the period 2003 to 2009, when natural increase accounted for up to 43% of growth, with migration at 57%. Between 2012 and 2013, Italy and France have both grown by around 291,000 people each, whilst Germany, the EU s largest nation, has grown by 195,000. In comparison, the UK population grew by 400,000. The combined population of Germany, the UK, France and Italy now accounts for 53 per cent of the total European population, with the remaining 47 per cent spread across 24 nations. The EU population growth rate is now 0.34% per annum. However, there are significant differences in growth across the 28 member states. Many countries are experiencing declines, especially those associated with the European single currency zone crisis, such as Greece (-0.8 %), Spain (-0.46 %) and Portugal (-0.57%). This can largely be explained by high outward migration, but as with immigration, the fact that those leaving are predominately young and fertile has an effect on the natural change. The majority of stable economies saw moderate growth; Germany, The Netherlands and Ireland are all growing at approximately 0.3%. In total, 17 states saw their population rise between 2012 and 2013. The UK population growth, at 0.6% per annum, is growing at a rate almost double that of the EU average. This difference between EU and UK growth has been apparent for over a decade. Although higher rates of growth can be seen in Scandinavia, Luxembourg and Italy, all have lower population densities than the UK, so are more able to provide for a growing population, and all had smaller populations to begin with. As such, a per capita figure is somewhat misleading, so to demonstrate the stark contrast in total growth it may be better to look at absolute numbers. Key differences in growth factors Several countries within the EU have higher per capita growth rates than the UK. Italy, for example, grew at a rate of 18.9 per 1000 persons in 2014, partly due to a large number of asylum seekers from North Africa. However, as the UK already has a higher total population, per capita growth results in a much larger number of additional people compared to other countries. The 400,000 added to the UK population last year equated to 24 per cent of the European total. This is despite the UK only accounting for 12 per cent of the EU s total population (64 million and 506 million respectively). When the UK is removed from the equation, the EU s average growth rate falls from 0.34% to 0.26%. Much of the UK growth is due to migration from outside of the EU. Net migration to the UK in 2014 was 243,000, down from the 2005 peak of 320,000 when the EU expanded. 265,000 of the 560,000 people who settled in the UK came from outside the EU. This means that 47% of net inward migration to the UK came from outside the EU, 33% higher than Germany which has a considerably higher landmass to accommodate migrants. Due, in part, to successive waves of migration, the UK s average age of 39.7 remains well below the European average of 42. Those aged 65 to 80 form 13.4% of the EU population, but only 12.8% of the UK. The same pattern is observed in those over 80 years of age. Importantly, these figures are 4
well below nations of comparable size like Germany and Italy. A lower average age, and higher proportion of younger people, leads to an increased number of births and a lower death rate. These combine to give a higher natural change across the UK compared to other major population centres in Europe. The UK in 2013 had the highest per capita ratio of foreign-born persons in the EU. These younger (see figure 4 4 ) citizens contributed to a UK natural increase in 2014, that was 16 times higher than the EU per-capita average. Were it not for migration, many European countries such as Germany would be seeing falling population levels. Figure 4: Comparing age structure for nationals and non-nationals within the EU. Non-nationals are general younger and there is a higher percentage in the fertile and economically active bracket of 18-45 As a high-ranking economy 5 the UK is also a favoured destination for much internal migration from other EU member states. The large increase associated with the expansion of the EU in 2005 is noted above, but different patterns have occurred since 2010. With the continued Eurozone crisis, particularly in Southern European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, many Eurozone countries have seen negative net migration. The UK, alongside other successful economies including Germany and France, has received a high number of these migrants. The combination of natural change, migration and the UK s high initial population, has resulted in a pattern of growth that is somewhat unique. Whilst growth characteristics may be similar on a per capita basis, the UK is adding much higher total numbers than other member states. Comparing population density When excluding countries below 500km 2, such as Malta, the UK ranks third in population density. The only countries with more people per km 2 are The Netherlands and Belgium. In comparison to countries with similar numbers of people, however, the UK s population density is far greater. At 256 people per km 2, the UK outranks Germany (233), Italy (192), France (111) and Spain (92). Its population density is over twice the EU average of 116. 4 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/file:age_structure_of_national_and_non-national_immigrants,_eu- 27,_2012_(%25)_YB14_II.png 5 http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015 5
Importantly, given the size of the UK, much of the population is even more concentrated than the total figure suggests. Scotland s population density, despite being at its highest ever level, is amongst the lowest in Europe at 68 people per km 2. This is mainly due to areas such as the Western Isles and The Highlands, which have just 9 people per km 2. England s population density is 411 per km 2, dwarfing Belgium for example at 35 people per km 2 and second only to Malta whose total landmass amounts to just 316km 2. These figures become even significant when combined with the rates of change noted above. As England s population grows faster than other EU member states, the difference in population density will continue to rise. The regional variations in population density, particularly the disparity between southern England and Scotland, is shown in Figure 4 6. Future growth of the EU and UK On current trajectories, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects that the UK population will pass 70 million by 2027 and reach 73.3 million in 2037. This will be a 15 per cent rise from 2012 levels. In total, the ONS forecasts an increase in population of 10 million people in 25 years. Over half of this increase will be due to natural change. This natural change will be, at least in part, the legacy of youthful migration. By 2060, it is projected that Britain will have the highest population of any country in Europe, as Germany s population of 80 million will fall through both natural decrease and lower levels of migration in comparison to the UK. The only countries with faster growing populations are Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland. Projections suggest that the UK s population will double in just over a century; whilst this may seem a lengthy period, the same transition for Poland is projected to take 1334 years. 6 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php/file:population_density,_by_nuts_3_regions,_2012_(1)_(inhabitants_per_km²)_ryb14.png 6
Figure 4: Regional variation in population density across the European Union. Note the high concentration of population in Southern England, especially in comparison to other rapidly growing populations such as Scandinavia. A key component of the population dynamics over the next 50 years is the ageing of the population. Britain is projected to continue to have a much lower average age than much of Europe, partly due to its higher birth rates when compared to the EU average. Across most Western European nations a progressive trend to lower fertility and lower mortality has resulted in an ageing population. This is often exacerbated in countries such as Bulgaria and Greece, which see large numbers of young, fertile people leaving. The contribution to the UK population from migration has contributed to a projected increase in average age (from 39.7 in 2014 to 42.8 in 2037), that is much lower than predicted ageing in other member states. The average age of the EU as a whole is projected to increase from 40 to 48. The UK s population of people aged over 80 is projected to increase from three to six million, but there will also be a growth in younger age groups. The relative growth of different age groups is shown in Figure 5. By 2035 the EU population is projected to peak at 520 million, before falling to 505 million in 2060, whilst the UK population is expected to continue growing unless a number of its population characteristics are addressed. It should be noted that all European countries are expected to continue to age until 2060, but those without significant net migration will age significantly faster. 7
Figure 5: The differing age structure of the EU between now and 2080. Conclusions The UK is expected to grow faster than most of its European neighbours on a per capita basis. However due to Britain s high total population, already the second largest in the EU and projected to become the largest by 2060, the UK population is growing by much higher total numbers. This increase in population is expected to come from a combination of natural change and high net migration. The UK is also expected to age at a slower rate to many countries in the EU, largely due to a high level of migration of young and fertile people. The ONS projects a number of scenarios for population growth 7, which are shown in Figure 6. With the UK s high population density, increasing growth may put pressure on government services and our natural landscape. Policies to address either the natural change or migration could have a significant effect on the country s future population growth. These policies must be considered now in order to prevent the UK s population from continuing to grow unsustainably in the future. Acknowledgements Data for the UK comes with thanks from the Office for National Statistics and can be accessed here, whilst information on population dynamics for the EU as a whole comes from the Eurostat Population Database. Data referred to in text can also be found in the Appendix. 7 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7115155.stm 8
Figure 6: Population growth projections from the ONS based on adjusting either natural change, migration or both. Appendix 9
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