National Security and the 2008 Election

Click to edit Master title style April 3, 2008 National Security and the 2008 Election Democracy Corps Fourth and level Greenberg Quinlan Rosner March 25-27, 2008 1000 likely voters nationwide

Click to edit Master title style Country Ready for Change Page 2 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

70 10 Click Nearly to three edit Master quarters title think style country headed in wrong direction Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 52 51 42 41 Katrina 5655 56 58 62 Click to edit 55 Master text styles Second 37 level 35 31 34 28 30 25 Fourth 34 level 34 37 37 31 2006 60 67 64 6162 Election Iraq surge Right direction Petraeus Report 71 70 66 66 69 69 66 63 62 63 58 72 66 68 68 24 28 25 27 23 25 28 23 22 25 25 23 22 23 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Wrong direction 73 21 Net -9-11 -22-18 -19-24 -31-18 -25-42 -36-31 -31-45-24-41-35 Difference -43-41-48-47-44-35-47-50-41-45-44-52 Page 3 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

67 47 27 Click Bush to job edit approval Master title disapproval style worsens to highest ever Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? 51 46 49 49 48 49 52 53 51 56 52 50 57 58 56 54 53 56 Click 46 to 46 edit 46 Master text styles 43 45 45 42 42 39 37 59 57 38 59 60 58 59 60 59 57 57 38 37 37 37 35 36 Approve 60 58 60 56 38 38 38 36 35 35 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Net +5 Difference Katrina 2006 Iraq Surge Election Petraeus Report Disapprove -1 0-7 -8-5 -14-4 -6-17 -16-21 -12-10 -17-21-17-19 -21-22-25-22-24-19-24-24-20-18-25-33 64 31 Page 4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click Bush to personal edit Master favorability title style favorable feelings lowest ever Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm 52 51 47 46 48 45 45 43 44 4142 Katrina 49 48 2006 50 51 52 51 53 51 51 48 Click to edit Master text 48 styles 46 4747 47 45 4546 43 43 43 42 43 4241 42 39 38 Iraq Surge Petraeus Report 58 55 54 55 54 53 53 51 52 54 51 52 52 54 37 39 38 37 34 37 37 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 31 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Net +12+10+5+3 +4 0-5 -6-3+1-1 -5-9 -11-14 Difference -4-9-5-12-9-16 -12-13-15-15-19-19-19-15 -19-18-18-17-20-27 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months. Page 5 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click to edit Master title style The Presidential Election Page 6 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click The presidential to edit Master vote: title generic style contest I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 70 New Congress Republican Democrat 50 30 53 50 51 51 51 53 51 51 52 51 53 49 51 53 39 37 37 39 43 42 44 41 41 42 41 37 10 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Net +13 +12 +16 +11 +12 +14 +10 +9 +13 +9 +12 +5 +9 +12 Difference Page 7 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click to edit Master title style The Congressional Race Page 8 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

60 50 Click Democrats to edit hold Master steady title lead style in named congressional vote Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? New Congress 54 52 52 53 53 53 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50 50 42 42 Third 43 level 43 42 42 39 41 43 43 Democratic candidate Republican candidate 42 41 30 Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar- 07 Apr- 07 May- 07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov- 07 Dec- 07 Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 Net +10+12 Difference +8 +14 +8 +8 +11 +12 +9 +10 +9 +7 +11 +10 +13 Page 9 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Actual names of incumbents inserted, and a generic candidate was inserted for the opposing party

Click to edit Master title style National Security Page 10 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Which Click to party edit better Master on title foreign style policy 60 20 42 36 Democrats Republicans 46 47 36 0 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

Which Click to party edit better Master on title striking style right balance on foreign/domestic policy 60 Democrats Republicans 53 46 20 39 39 32 0 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

Which Click to party edit Master associated title with stylethe phrase Now I d like to ask you which party you associate more with these terms when it comes to national security the Democrats or the Republicans. Associate with Republicans Associate with Democrats Net Work for democracy and human rights 27 57 +30 Click to edit Extreme Master text styles Stand up for Americans Second in global trade leveland commerce Reckless Patriotic Weak 34 41 38 28 30 43 35 32 +10 +9 +6-6 -12 Not decisive in a crisis 29 50-21 Respect the military 54 26-28 80 55 30 5 20 45 70

Democrats Click to edit improved Master title on style National Security measures Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Republicans Better Democrats Better Net Change from 2003 Improving global respect for America 25 58 +33 na Striking the right balance between foreign and domestic issues 32 The situation in Iraq Foreign policy The war on terrorism 38 36 43 53 50 47 39 +21 +12 +11-4 +22 na +17 na National security 45 39-6 +22 Protecting America and its people 44 38-6 +16 Ensuring a strong military 57 28-29 na 80 55 30 5 20 45 70

Which Click to party edit better Master on title national style security 60 54 Democrats Republicans 20 25 48 32 48 33 42 37 44 41 45 39 0 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

Six Click in to ten edit Americans Master title hold style unfavorable feelings toward war Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. 4243 434443 41 4142 4950 50 48 46 52 52 58 56 52 55 35 Third 39 38 37 level 36 32 3230 29 3737 Election Katrina 2006 58 55 31 30 61 56 30 25 Iraq Surge 60 25 56 30 6162 60 Cool Petraeus Report Warm 61 59 61 60 58 54 51 34 31 27 24 24 23 25 2727 24 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Net -1-3 +2-2 +3-12-13-13 -7-10 -20-16 -24-28 -17-26 -27-25 -36-26-35-26 -33-37-38-23 -38-34-37-17-31-33 Difference Page 18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

More Click worry to edit Republicans Master title style will stay too long in Iraq 60 50 51 I'm more concerned that the Republicans w ill w ait too long to w ithdraw our troops from Iraq I'm more concerned that the Democrats w ill leave Iraq too quickly 50 52 51 50 48 47 54 20 45 45 45 41 44 46 44 46 41 0 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Net Difference -5 +6 +5 +11 +7 +2 +6-1 +13 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months.

Click to edit Master title style 1. Take the Offensive Page 21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click John McCain to edit Master on national title style security John McCain says: I have been involved in every national security issue over the past 20 years, and having served this country, I know how important our security is. Hillary Clinton has flip-flopped on Iraq, and now would run up Click the white to edit flag Master of surrender text styles in Iraq, pulling out our troops, handing al Qaeda a victory, and endangering our vital interests. I was the leading supporter of the surge, which is now succeeding, and I will press for victory in Iraq. Fifth I will level also strengthen our military, restructure our intelligence agencies, and build missile defenses to protect us from rogue regimes like Iran.

Click to edit Master title style 2. Tie McCain to Bush s Policies Page 23 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click McCain to edit seen Master a continuation title style of Bush s foreign policy 56 +17 39 As President, John McCain would mostly continue the national security and foreign policies of President Bush As President, John McCain would mostly bring a different approach than President Bush to our national security and foreign policies

Click to edit Master title style 3. Stress Iraq Page 25 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click Surge to viewed edit Master a mistake title style 52 +8 44 The decision in 2006 to have a surge in American troops in Iraq was a mistake, because it cost us more money and lives, produced no real Iraqi political progress, and leaves us there indefinitely The decision in 2006 to have a surge in American troops in Iraq produced positive results, like setbacks for the terrorists, fewer US casualties, and Iraqi progress on solving their political issues

Click to edit Master title style Need to start reducing troops in Iraq 57 +15 42 We need to start reducing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq We must stay the course to achieve stability and finish the job in Iraq

Click to edit Master title style 4. Stress the Economic Dimension Page 28 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click to edit Master title style Priorities argument 56 +14 42 Hillary Clinton says: America's security depends on strength at home as well as abroad. We cannot go on spending billions on a failed policy in Iraq when our economy is floundering -- I will set our priorities straight and redirect more of our foreign spending on education and health care. John McCain says: America is at war in two countries, and waging a long-term fight against violent extremists who despise us and our values -- as president I will never short-change our security -- I will do whatever it takes to win this struggle and protect our people.

Click to edit Master title style 5. Stress Energy Page 30 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Dependence Click to edit Master on foreign title oil, style nuclear weapons in hands of terrorists seen as greatest security threats Now I am going to read you a list of threats that some people say America faces. Please tell me which TWO of these you personally consider to be the biggest threats to America's security? America's dependence on foreign oil Terrorists obtaining nuclear, chemical, or biological materials Terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists Second China's level military build-up Global warming The war in Iraq Dangerous regimes like Iran and North Korea 15 20 18 18 23 42 42 Resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan US failure to achieve victory in Iraq 7 11 Page 31 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click to edit Master title style 6. The Frame: Strengthening Security Page 32 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click Clinton and edit Obama: Master title Priorities style Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama says: We need a change of priorities in our policies abroad. George Bush failed to stand up for American workers on trade and oil, and his failed policies in Iraq cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq, and would keep our troops there for 100 years. As president, I will start bringing our troops home from Iraq during my first 60 days, direct more of that spending to our needs at home, insist on labor protections in our trade agreements, and support alternative energy to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous Click to edit regimes. Master text styles John McCain Second says: I level have been involved in every national security issue over the past Third 20 years, level and having served this country, I know how important our security is. Barack Obama seems hesitant to stand up for America, and Fourth would level run up the white flag of surrender in Iraq, pulling out our troops, handing Fifth al level Qaeda a victory, and endangering our vital interests. I was the leading supporter of the surge, which is now succeeding, and I will press for victory in Iraq. I will also strengthen our military, restructure our intelligence agencies, and build missile defenses to protect us from rogue regimes like Iran. Clinton/Obama statement beats McCain statement by average of +8

Click Clinton and edit Obama: Master title Strengthen style America s Security Barack Obama says: We cannot afford more of the reckless, extreme national security policies of the Bush years that lost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives in Iraq. But John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq and says he is willing to keep our troops there for 100 years. I would strengthen America's security by bringing home our troops from Iraq during 2009, doing what we need to win in Afghanistan, rebuilding our alliances, and pursuing a new alternative energy policy, including alternative sources, to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous regimes. Hillary Clinton says: We cannot afford more of the reckless, extreme national security Second policies level of the Bush years that lost us trillions of dollars and thousands of Third lives level in Iraq. But John McCain was Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq and says he is willing to keep our troops there for 100 years. I would strengthen America's Fourth level security by starting to bring our troops home from Iraq during my first Fifth 60 level days, doing what we need to win in Afghanistan, rebuilding our alliances, and pursuing a new alternative energy policy, including alternative sources, to reduce our dependence on oil from dangerous regimes. Clinton/Obama statement beats McCain statement by average of +9

Click to edit Master title style 7. Strengthen the Military Connection Page 36 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Click to edit Master title style Concern about Democrats reluctance to use force 44-4 48 I would be more worried about John McCain as president being too willing to use military force abroad I would be more worried about Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama as president being too reluctant to use military force abroad

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