Death of Osama can improve Indo-Pak peace talks Hrishiraj Bhattacharjee, If states are known by the enemies they have, then Pakistan has largely been known by the very country it seeks to avoid: India. - Ahmed M. Quraishi. The India-Pakistan conflict is one of the most enduring rivalries of the post-world War era. Thus far, it has witnessed three wars, one limited war and a number of serious interstate crises. Yet it still shows no signs of receding. Numerous confidence building measures (CBM) had been initiated by leaders of both nations over the years, but every such CBM had to be prematurely terminated or yielded very little result due to one mishap or another. After the terrorist attacks on Mumbai in November 2008, India decided to stop all forms of official dialogue with Pakistan until it took credible actions against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack; whom, according to India, were hiding inside Pakistan. This resulted in a complete shutdown of all sorts of diplomatic talks between the two countries for the next two and half years. Then in March 2011, the Indian and Pakistani cricket teams faced each other at the Cricket World cup semi-finals in India. This facilitated a high level dialogue between the Prime Minister of India Dr Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yusuf Raza Gilani, when the latter accepted the former s invitation to watch the match in India. The dialogues were considered to be quite successful as Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani described the meeting as a win-win for both India and Pakistan 1. However, just when s is correct here instead of when the officials from both the countries were trying to move this dialogue forward, Osama bin Laden was found and killed in Pakistan. This development changed the political discourse between India and Pakistan overnight - from one of camaraderie to blames, counter-blames, threats and counter-threats. However, the death of 1 Rediff.com Mohali a win-win for India, Pak: Gilani, 31 st March, 2011. http://www.rediff.com/news/report/gilani-sayskashmir-issue-should-be-discussed-earnestly/20110331.htm
Osama has also initiated a bigger war inside Pakistan a turf war of authority between its civilian leaders and the powerful military. Various developments, as discussed later in this article, indicate that Pakistani civilian leadership is now trying desperately to exert its control over the military and this has given rise to the decline of military dominance in Pakistan. Death of Osama: A civilian moment in Pakistan? The Pakistani army is well regarded by the Pakistani people when not in power, but that it fails when in power. - Jean-David Levitte, diplomatic adviser to French President Nikolas Sarkozy. 2 The Pakistan army looks upon itself as the guardian of the nation s physical and ideological frontiers. 3 Military Generals have directly ruled Pakistan for 34 of its 64 years of existence, through military coups in 1958, 1977 and 1999. But, as history suggests, once in power, the Pakistani military always ended up in tarnishing its reputation as a patriotic, disciplined and honest organisation. However, once out of direct political power, it has always been quick in gaining back its lost national support and popularity. In 2007, when General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani replaced Musharraf as the Chief of Pakistani army, the Pakistani streets were filled with anti-military and anti-musharraf slogans. 4 Kayani wasted no time in rebuilding and restoring the image of the army and it did not take him too long to do so. He pulled military officers from civilian positions in government and distanced the army from politics, especially the February 2008 election in Pakistan. 2 Dawn What friends say about Pakistan in private, 28 th May, 2011. http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/28/what-friendssay-about-pakistan-in-private.html 3 Alam, Shah; The Military s role in Pakistan s polity, Manekshaw Paper No 28, 2011, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi. 4 Hindu Recognizing a rare civilian movement in Pakistan, 9 th May, 2011. http://www.thehindu.com/2011/05/09/stories/2011050955061000.htm
The unpopularity of Asif Ali Zardari, especially after he became President, helped improve the Army's stock. 5 The November 2008 Mumbai attacks tilted the delicate civilian-military balance completely to the side of the military. By cranking up fears of a strike by India and scrambling its fighter jets to meet the purported Indian threat, the Pakistan Army deflected the entire debate about the Mumbai attacks to the imminence of an India-Pakistan war. The nation rallied behind its Army, and India was no longer victim, but the aggressor. President Zardari's vision of building not just peace but synergies with India, which he articulated several times in 2008, was given an unceremonious burial. 6 And after that, the Pakistan army was in a roll, both in terms of control over political institutions as well as unprecedented national popularity. However, with the killing of Osama bin Laden, the general public in Pakistan were angry with the military and were openly voicing their criticism against the military and all these were happening during a civilian government. Some of the sharpest languages are being directed at the army and intelligence chiefs, a rare challenge to arguably the two most powerful men in Pakistan, who are more accustomed to being feared than publicly criticised. While the rest of the world is asking How did Osama live in Pakistan without being caught? people on the Pakistani street were only obsessed with the humiliating question How did US forces sneak in and out for the operation without being intercepted? 7 Ordinary citizens, who before 2 nd May would not have opened their mouth against the army, are now openly asking brazen questions to the army. The gist of their collective anger is that the army has starved the nation for all these years in the name of national security, so where were all those technologies and intelligence when the Americans were flying inside Pakistan and violating 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Business Standard In the line of fire the Pak army, post-osama, 22 nd May, 2011. http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/suhasini-haidar-inlinefirepak-army-post-osama/436351/
the sovereignty of Pakistan. 8 Demands were also being made for the resignations of Army, Air Force and ISI chiefs. But the most notable development was that for the first time in the history of Pakistan, the Army Chief and the head of ISI were summoned by the national assembly to offer an explanation on the Osama killing episode. On 13 th May, Chief of Army Staff General Kayani, Head of ISI Lieutenant General Pasha and other heads of armed forces briefed lawmakers at a joint session of Pakistan parliament. During the session, top military officials admitted intelligence failure in not being able to locate the world s most wanted fugitive taking up residence in Abbotabad for about five years and the inability of Pakistani radars to track four US helicopters that carried out the May 2 operation. It was the first time in Pakistan s history that the military, which has ruled the country for more than half of 64 years of its life, came out with an open admission of failures and offered itself for accountability by parliament or any other forum. 9 The joint session, which lasted for more than ten hours, witnessed the men in uniforms facing a lot of extremely tough questions from the senators and members of the national assembly. Eventually, the words that won applause from across the political ranks came from MNA Javed Hashmi, who asked Pasha and Kayani, We know you are burdened with responsibilities how about you give some of them back to us? 10 Lt General Pasha apologised and offered to resign owing responsibility for the intelligence failures leading to the Abbotabad incident and the failure to detect the presence of Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad for all these years. Pasha said I have already submitted my resignation to my chief (chief of army staff) and if the prime minister and the Parliament want 8 Ibid. 9 Dawn Military offers itself for accountability, 14 th May, 2011. http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/14/military-offers-itselffor-accountability-2.html 10 Business Standard In the line of fire the Pak army, post-osama, 22 nd May, 2011.
so, I will walk out from here as a retired officer. 11 Pakistani lawmakers unequivocally condemned US unilateral action in Abbotabad and called for a review of the country s terms of engagement with the United States in a resolution passed after an almost 10-hour marathon joint session of Parliament. The lawmakers warned the US against conducting unilateral operations in Pakistani territory, including drone strikes, failing which the government may consider withdrawal of transit facility to NATO/ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Parliamentarians also agreed to appoint an independent commission on the Abbotabad operation to fix responsibility and recommend necessary measures to ensure that such an incident does not recur. 12 The composition of the commission was decided to be settled after consultations between the leader of the House and the leader of the Opposition. Meanwhile, the leader of opposition Nawaz Sharif, in a press conference, had demanded that the independent investigation commission should be headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan and should have the authority to summon any person in service of Pakistan, including the army chief General Kayani. 13 How the current civilian moment in Pakistan can boost Indo-Pak relations: The civilian-military relation in Pakistan has always been tilted towards the military and it is a known fact that military has enormous influence in Pakistani politics. With the country s political leaders being distrusted and often hated by the people; the army often fills up the need of an institution to which Pakistani citizens can look up as a last resort to protect the country, especially with regards to the arch rival India. For decades, Pakistani citizens 11 PKKH Unanimous resolution: Parliament condemns Abbotabad raid, 14 th May, 2011. http://www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com/2011/05/14/unanimous-resolution-parliament-condemns-abbottabad-raid/ 12 Ibid. 13 Pak Tribune Nawaz demands judicial probe on Abbotabad operation, 12 th May, 2011. http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?239215
supported a security state 14 in the belief that its neighbour, India, posed a grave threat to its existence. Gradually, the security state took over the daily lives of the people. 15 But as explained in the previous section, the death of Osama changed that equation. In fact, some analysts are comparing the current anti-army sentiments in Pakistan as something akin to 1971, when the Pakistan army failed to hold back East-Pakistan, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. Although the current beating in Pakistani army s image does not mean that the civilian leaders are enjoying increased popularity ratings; at least, the events that followed since 2 nd May do suggest that the democratically elected political leaders in Pakistan have the necessary will to confront the army and try to bring it under civilian control. Especially, the role played by the main opposition party in Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), has been of direct confrontation with the army. The leader of opposition and PML (N) chief Nawaz Sharif has signalled that despite his differences with the ruling PPP, when it comes to holding the army accountable, the politicians are closing ranks. 16 Any informed observer of Pakistan will agree that this is a rare moment in Pakistani politics, which is otherwise riddled with extreme enmity between different political parties and its leaders which has been thoroughly exploited by the army from time to time. Although, the Indo-Pakistan rivalry is based on many complex political issues with the Kashmir dispute being at the top of that list; historically speaking, India and Pakistan have shared a better relation when Pakistan was under civilian administration. Also, democratically elected civilian authorities in India have always felt more comfortable to deal with the Pakistani civilian administration as compared to its military officers. And as history 14 A security state or a national security state is a post World War II concept in which nearly all aspects of political, economic, intellectual, and social life of a state are dominated by considerations of national defence and the drive to maintain a defence establishment capable of protecting the state against all comers. Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/national-security-state#ixzz1pshjmchb 15 The Globalist The Shakespearean tragedy of Pakistan, 19 th May, 2011. http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=9138 16 Business Standard In the line of fire the Pak army, post-osama, 22 nd May, 2011.
suggests, the two biggest breakthroughs in India-Pakistan relation was achieved when Pakistan was not under a military dictator. The first one in 1989, when under the leaderships of Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi, Pakistan and India made an agreement not to attack each other s nuclear facilities and also agreed to initiate cultural exchange, civil aviations etc. The second breakthrough was the signing of Lahore Declaration between Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in February 1999. And after each of these breakthroughs, the Pakistani military mobilised to undo the gains made by them. So, Benazir Bhutto was illegally sacked by the President under pressure from the army. 17 Similarly, in 1999, the peace dialogues between Pakistan and India were sabotaged by General Pervez Musharraf s Kargil misadventure, which eventually lead to the overthrow of Nawaz Sharif through a military coup in 1999. Thus, with Pakistan under a democratic government and with the Pakistani army facing huge criticism and unpopularity inside Pakistan owing to the incidents that followed the death of Osama bin Laden, it has, perhaps, created one of the best opportunities for the civilian leaders of both Pakistan and India to start working on the peace process. With the Pakistani army facing increasing criticism at home, it is safe to assume that it is not in a position to pose as much obstacles to that peace process, as it would have done otherwise. Unfortunately, the Indian response post-osama has not been pragmatic and it has submitted a list of 50 most wanted fugitives, allegedly to be in Pakistan. Also, officials from the Indian armed forces made on the records claims that Indian military is capable of conducting Abbotabad style operations to capture or kill Indian fugitives in Pakistan. The Pakistan government responded by saying that any such misadventures would result in terrible catastrophe. 18 However, despite these initial tit for tat responses and counter-responses, the Government of India has stated that the killing of Osama will not have any impact on the 17 In 1989, the ISI launched an operation called Midnight Jackal to topple the government of Benazir Bhutto. 18 The Hindu Pakistan warns India against misadventure, 6 th May, 2011. http://www.hindu.com/2011/05/06/stories/2011050658370100.htm
recently resumed peace talks with Pakistan and that Indo-Pak dialogues will continue. In the meantime, signals are also coming from the Pakistani civilian leadership that they are willing to redefine Pakistan s relation with India. After the death of Osama, the leader of the opposition in Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif called for reappraisal of ties with India, to move forward and he also said that Islamabad must stop treating New Delhi as its biggest enemy. 19 For India, the peace with Pakistan is dependant to a large extent on the strengthening of Pakistan s civilian moments. The death of Osama has created such a rare moment in Pakistan and as a larger, economically stronger and militarily powerful neighbour, the onus now lies on the Indian leadership to grab this opportunity to make solid foundations for lasting peace in the subcontinent. The civilian leadership in Pakistan has demonstrated that they are willing to confront the powerful military and at least try to bring it under civilian control. So, at this delicate moment, Indian leadership should refrain from doing anything which can be even remotely construed as an Indian attempt to corner Pakistan or cause losses to Pakistan as this will give the Pakistani military the vital oxygen to rejuvenate its moribund national image. Of course, the deep sense of enmity that has been created between these two countries over the past 64 years cannot possibly be erased in a day; however, Indo-Pak relationship requires a fresh start and there can be no better way of doing so from the death of Osama bin Laden. 19 Rediff India is not Pakistan s number 1 enemy: Sharif, 17 th May, 2011. http://www.rediff.com/news/report/india-isnot-pakistan-number-one-enemy-sharif/20110517.htm