School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk International Conference on Population Geographies The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 30 June to 3 July 2015
Outline 1. Ethnic diversity in the UK 2. Ethnic group population projections ETHPOP 3. Internal migration component methodology 4. Interaction patterns
2001 2011
Rather than Diversity Explosion as seen in the USA (Frey 2015), are we seeing Diversity Diffusion? 2011 Note: Index of Diversity = 1 - e r e 2 where r e = proportion of the population in ethnic group e
Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP Our overall aim is to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition of the United Kingdom s population This is important for monitoring ethnic advantage / disadvantage & segregation The team are Phil Rees (PI), Paul Norman, Pia Wohland, Nik Lomax & Stephen Clark
Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP The migration component requires input time-series data of migration of ethnic group populations Moving to a multi-regional model over a biregional model Experimenting with probabilistic estimates which require good time-series estimates
ETHPOP specification Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI (355 zones) LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 16 = 5,680 populations 404 12 2 = 9,696 populations
ETHPOP specification Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI (355 zones) LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 16 = 5,680 populations 404 12 2 = 9,696 populations
Relative change compared to 2001 1 2 3 4 5 6 Previous ETHPOP project: 2007-10 Broad ethnic groups Other Ethnic White Mixed Asian Black Others White & Black African, Other Mixed White Other White & Asian Chinese Black African White & Black Caribbean, Other Asian Pakistani Other Black Indian, Bangladeshi Black Caribbean White Irish White British 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Years
2001 Projected 2031 2011 2051
Levels of migration (Migrants aged over 1) 2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3
Levels of migration (Migrants aged over 1) 2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3 There is a negative correlation between immigration and net out-migration of the 404 Local Authority Districts for each year of the time series: r = -0.67 in 2001/02, r = -0.74 in 2006/07 and r = -0.66 in 2010/11, all p<0.01.
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity Migration per 1,000 people 500 White 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Multiple ethnic group Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian Black Other Ethnic Group Source: 2011 Census
Chinese and Pakistani migration at age 16 to 24 Chinese 16-24 Pakistani 16-24 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Pakistani Chinese
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity Adapted from Rees and Willekens 1986
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
Combining data and estimating gaps Iterative Proportional Fitting
Migration per 1,000: Relative to mid-2002 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 20to24 65to74 75plus 75 70 65 60
Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Urban Rural Patterns WBI WHO CHI Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense BLA BLC IND
Urban Rural Patterns 16 to 24 65 Plus Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense
Age 65+ in 2011 See Abel and Sander (2014)
Ethnic Concentration Chinese Black African Indian
Conclusions Ethnic diversity in the UK has increased between 2001 and 2011 and is projected to increase further Internal migration patterns by ethnic group an important component of population change Age structure and migration rates vary by group Need to get this right for our projection models Further estimation required for the full Origin- Destination-Age-Sex-Ethnicity array Full ODAS array allows us to experiment with multi-regional projection model
Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/n.lomax More information about Poster Session tomorrow: Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2011-2101: a second chance to get them right
References Abel & Sander (2014). Quantifying Global International Migration Flows. Science, 343 (6178) Frey, B (2015) Diversity explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America. Washington: The Brookings Institution Lomax, N., Norman, P., Rees, P. and Stillwell, J. (2013) Subnational migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates. Journal of Population Research 30(3): 265-288. DOI 10.1007/s12546-013- 9115-z.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12546-013- 9115-z Rees, P. and Willekens, F. (1986) Data and accounts. In Rogers, A. and Willekens, F., eds. Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study. Dordrecht: Reidel, pp.19-58.