CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF

CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF

Also by Abbas Abdelkarim PRIMITIVE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION SUDAN - THE GEZIRA SCHEME AND AGRICULTURAL TRANSITION (with Tony Barnett) SUDAN - CAPITAL, STATE AND TRANSFORMATION (editor with Tony Barnett)

Change and Development in the Gulf Edited by Abbas Abdelkarim Senior Lecturer Institute of Social Studies The Hague f

First published in Great Britain 1999 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-40924-2 DOI 10.1057/9780230376007 ISBN 978-0-230-37600-7 (ebook) First published in the United States of America 1999 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0--312-21658-0 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Change and development in the Gulf I edited by Abbas Abdelkarim. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0--312-21658-0 (cloth) 1. Persian Gulf Region-Economic conditions. 2. Persian Gulf Region-Economic policy. 3. Persian Gulf Region-Social conditions. 4. Persian Gulf Region-Politics and government. I. Abdelkarim, Abbas, 1950--. HC415.3.C48 1998 338.9536---<lc21 98-34976 CIP Selection, editorial matter and Chapters 1 and 2 Abbas Abdelkarim 1999 Chapters 3-11 Macmillan Press Ltd 1999 Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1999 978-0-333-73891-7 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WlP 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Transferred to digital printing 2005

Contents Notes on Contributors List of Tables Introduction and Background 1 1 Change and Development in the Gulf: an Overview of Major Issues 3 Abbas Abdelkarim 2 Oil, Population Change and Social Development in the Gulf: Some Major Trends and Indicators 25 Abbas Abdelkarim PART I: Oil and the Economy: Dependence and Diversification 49 3 The State in Oil Rentier Economies: the Case of Bahrain 51 Khalid M. Abdulla 4 Industrial Strategies and Change in the UAE during the 1980s 79 Fatima S. Al-Shamsi 5 Diversification through Industrialization: the Saudi Experience 104 Osama Saad Ahmed PART II: Human Resources and Gender Relations 131 6 Population Policies in the Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council 133 Baquer Salman Al-Najjar 7 Overview of Major Issues in the Development of National Human Reources in the Gulf 151 Adil Osman Gebriel 8 Women, Income Generation and Gender Relations in Rural Oman 164 Charlotte Heath v vii viii

VI Contents 9 The Saudis and the Gulf War: Gender, Power and the Revival of the Religious Right 184 Eleanor A. Doumato PART III: Political Change and Militarization: the Impact of the Gulf War 211 10 Post-War Kuwait and the Process of Democratization: the Persistence of Political Tribalism 213 Paul Aarts 11 Arms, Oil and Security in the Gulf: a Tenuous Balance 238 Serge Herzog Index 260

Notes on Contributors Paul Aarts, Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam Abbas Abdelkarim, Institute of Social studies, The Hague, The Netherlands Khalid M. Abdulla, Department of Economics, University of Bahrain, Manama, Bahrain Osama Saad Ahmed, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Manama, State of Bahrain Baquer Salman Al-Najjar, Department of Sociology, Manama University of Bahrain, Manama, Bahrain Fatima S. Al-Shamsi, Department of Economics,University of United Arab Emirates, Al Ain, UAE. Eleanor Doumato, Department of History, University of Rhode Island, USA Adil Osman Gebriel, Consultant, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Charlotte Heath, Department for International Development, London, UK Serge Herzog, Ministry of Defence, Geneva, Switzerland vn

List of Tables 2.1 Crude oil production in selected years, by country 2.2 Proven published oil reserves as of 1 January 1990 and as of 1 January 1994, by country 2.3 Average annual government oil revenue of OPEC member Gulf Countries 2.4 GNP per capita in the Gulf, 1994 2.5 Some indicators of dependence on oil 2.6 Population by nationality in the Gulf countries 2.7 Number and percentage of non-nationals in the labour force in the Gulf 2.8 Some indicators of educational development in the Gulf 2.9 Gulf female/male gap in education 2.10 Percentage of women in selected occupations in three Gulf countries in 1990 2.11 Some indicators of health development 3.1 Oil production, reserves and crude production per capita for selected countries 3.2 The significance of oil exports to the Bahraini economy 3.3 Employees of the Bahrain oil sector as a percentage of total population 3.4 The significance of government employment in Bahrain 3.5 Bahrain: breakdown of the government budget 3.6 Bahrain: public expenditure on the infrastructure 3.7 Bahrain: the growth of government's wage bill 3.8 Bahrain government budget's public revenue by source 3.9 The significance of oil revenue and government expenditure to the economy of Bahrain 3.10 Government participation in domestic enterprises 4.1 GDP distribution between oil and non-oil sectors in the UAE 4.2 UAE GDP growth 4.3 Some important indicators of the UAE's manufacturing sector 4.4 Manufacturing value added and employment by emirate 4.5 Distribution of invested funds in the manufacturing sector, by emirate Vlll

List of Tables IX 4.6 Value added, gross fixed capital formation and employment in the UAE by manufacturing sector 5.1 Production of factories under the foreign capital investment system by industrial activity, Saudi Arabia 5.2 Industrial licences issued in Saudi Arabia in 1414 AH 5.3 Foreign participation in joint ventures in Saudi Arabia by nationality and industrial sector 5.4 Saudi exports by industrial origin 5.5 Saudi imports by economic category 6.1 National and non-national population in the Gulf, by gender 11.1 Geographic/demographic data of GCC states 11.2 Economic/military data of the Gulf states