Daniel Zacharda American Congress Dr. Lindaman 12/4/2014 Iowa Senate Race In 2002 Senator Tom Harkin was up for election facing Republican challenger Greg Ganske. When examining this race one thing stands out right away, the money. Incumbent Senator Tom Harkin was able to raise a total of $8,684,883, while Ganske was able to raise a total of $5,070,011. 1 This difference of over three million dollars had a direct effect on the outcome of the race. Senator Harkin received $425,545 from individual campaign contributions and $1,401,937 from PAC money. 2 His largest three donors were Communication Workers of America, Starlight International, United Auto Workers, giving 40, 35, and 35 thousand dollars respectively. 3 The support from these well-known organizations and well as the overall ability of Senator Harkin to raise more funds than his challenger no doubt played a major role in his reelection. The race in 2002 between Senator Harkin and Republican challenger Greg Ganske ended up being a sound victory for Senator Harkin. Senator Harkin received 54% of the vote to Ganske s 44% of the vote. 4 The fundraising advantage no doubt played a role in the reelection of Senator Harkin, but there were other factors at play as well. One of the more interesting things about studying the behavior of Iowa voters is that in 2002 the voters strongly supported Senator Harkin, while electing Republicans to represent four of the five U.S. House seats in Iowa. 5 This could be seen as Iowa was pleased with Senator Harkin and the work he had been doing, as well as, the strong reputation of Senator Harkin in the Democratic Party. Iowa voters also reelected 1
Democrat Tom Vilsack to another term as governor in 2002, so the ability to accurately predict the behavior of the Iowa voters is very difficult. 6 Senator Tom Harkin s reelection campaign in 2008 saw a substantial victory for the incumbent senator. One of the major reasons why Senator Harkin was able to win reelection so easily was based on his ability to fundraise. In 2008 Senator Harkin was able to raise a total of $9,179,122, while is Republican counterpart Christopher Reed raised only $59,087. 7 This substantial fundraising differences shed some light as to why Senator Harkin was able to win so easily. The ability to raise a massive amount of campaign funds may have scared off any serious challengers. In this election, Senator Harkin was able to raise a total of $705,695 from individual contributions and $1,805,979 from PAC money. 8 The Senators largest three donors were Herbalife International, raising a total of $106,390, TPG Capital, raising $49,900, and Cavarocchi Rusico Dennis Assoc, raising 44,989. 9 Analyzing this aspect reveals that the contribution to Senator Harkin s campaign from Herbalife International was $47,303 more than challenger Christopher Reed was able to raise in his entire campaign. Based on the fundraising advantage mentioned above, it is no surprise that in this election Senator Harkin was able to receive 61% of the vote in Iowa to Reed s 37%. One could easily point to Senator Harkin s massive fundraising advantage as the main reason for this electoral landslide, but it is also worth mentioning that Senator Harkin has a tremendous reputation in Iowa from conducting events like his annual steak fry dinner. 10 This means that Senator Harkin has the respect of the people as well as the name recognition that could have also played a large role. It is also worth mentioning that Iowa had also elected Democratic Party members Tom Vilsack as governor for every term since 1999 till 2008 when Vilsack did not run again and his 2
successor Chet Culver, also a Democrat, took over. This is worth mentioning because it shows a pattern on Iowa voters as leaning towards to the Democratic Party candidates in recent years. Democrat Bruce Braley has also had reelection campaigns for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2010 Braley received $238,516 from individual contributions and $748,163 from PAC money. 11 He was able to raise a total of 2.1 million for his campaign with American Association for Justice, International Brotherhood of American Workers, and American College of Radiology being his three largest donors. 12 In 2008, Braley received $195,638 from individual contributions and $556,568 from PAC money. 13 He was able to raise a total of 1.2 million for his campaign with American Association for Justice, Teamsters Union, and Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association being his three largest donors. 14 Braley managed to win the Iowa U.S. House race in 2008 with 63% of the vote, while in 2010 he won with only 48% of the vote. 1516 Although Braley managed to defeat his opponent in both of these elections, the lack of a big win in 2010 is concerning for a future senate candidate. With Senator Harkin retiring, the race to pick his successor is too close to call. Republican Joni Ernst, has been showing a narrow lead in the majority of the polls in the last month, her high point being Des Moines Register poll from 10/28-10/31 showing a 7 point lead to Quinnipiac University poll showing the race as a tie. 17 Democrat Bruce Braley has raised and spent a total of $10,803,793, while Ernst has raised a total of $9,949,714 but only spent $7,705,347. 18 The tightly contested race is really anyone s guess but I am predicting that Senator Harkin s senate seat will change parties and belong to Republican Joni Ernst. Ernst has a lot of cash on hand to spend in the final days of the campaign to bombard Iowans with ads and also get her message out to reach undecided, which I believe will pay dividends for her. Although Ernst s cash on hand is a big reason why I picked her to win, it isn t the only reason. 3
One of the main reason I decided to predict Ernst as the victor is because I believe that she has been consistently showing a narrow lead, but a lead none the less. I also noticed the sharp drop in percentage of the vote that Braley received in his own district from 2008-2010 where he dropped 15 points. 19 I don t believe it is a good sign when you win an election without a majority and his race in 2010 provided a red flag for me when making my decision. With all the media coverage on the potential changing hands of the senate, I believe that will favor Ernst and she will be able to ride a narrow 3 or 4 point win over Democrat Bruce Braley to become the next Senator from Iowa. All in all, this race is extremely close and neither candidate separated themselves from the other, giving one the clear lead. Braley had the early momentum and Ernst has been pretty steady and hasn t made a major mistake in the campaign yet. Given all of these factors I chose to go with the steady more consistent polling candidate Joni Ernst. This race will have a drastic impact on the United States Senate as I believe that with Ernst s election the Republicans will be able to regain control of the senate. This would essential mean that President Obama will become a lame duck president because his party doesn t control either body of congress, which will make it very difficult for him to pass any legislation in his final two years as President of the United States. As a result of this race, it is also most likely that Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky would become the next President of the Senate. Overall this race could potentially have a direct impact on the direction of the country over the next two years and could give the Republican Party momentum as the attempt to regain control of the White House in 2016. 4
Notes: 1 OpenSecrets.org, Sen. Tom Harkin: Congressional Elections, Opensecrets.org, https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/elections.php?cycle=2014&cid=n00004207&type=i (Accessed November 1, 2014). 2 Opensecrets.org, Tom Harkin: Top 100 Contributors, 1997-2002 Opensecrets.org, https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cycle=2002&type=c&cid=n00004207&newmem=n&recs=1 3 4 Office of the Iowa Secretary of State Michael A Mauro. 2014. "State of Iowa Offical Canvass Summary: November 4, 2008 General Election." Iowa Secretary of State. http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2008/officialcanvass2008general.pdf (accessed November 1, 2014). 5 6 Office of the Iowa Secretary of State. 2003. "Official Results Report." Iowa Secretary of State. January 13. http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2002/results/governorcanvass.pdf (accessed November 1, 2014). 7 OpenSecrets.org, Sen. Tom Harkin: Congressional Elections 8 Opensecrets.org, Tom Harkin: Top 100 Contributors, 2003-2008, https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cycle=2008&type=c&cid=n00004207&newmem=n&recs=1 9 10 Merica, Dan. 2014. "The final steak fry: Honoring Harkin with a large helping of politics." CNN. September 14, 2014, http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/12/politics/harkin-steak-fry-clinton/ (accessed November 1, 2014). 11 Opensecrets.org, Bruce Braley: Top 100 Contributors, 2009-2010, https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cycle=2010&type=c&cid=n00027464&newmem=n&recs=1 12 13 OpenSecrets.org, Bruce Braley: Top Contributors, 2007-2008, https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=n00027464&cycle=2008&type=c&newmem=n&recs=1 14 15 Office of the Iowa Secretary of State Michael A Mauro. 2014. "State of Iowa Offical Canvass Summary: November 4, 2008 General Election." Iowa Secretary of State, http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2008/officialcanvass2008general.pdf (accessed November 1, 2014). 16 Office of the Iowa Secretary of State Michael A Mauro. 2014. "State of Iowa Offical Results Report," Iowa Secretary of State, http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2010/usreporr.pdf (accessed November 1, 2014). 17 Realclearpolitics.com, Iowa Senate- Ernst vs. Braley, Realclearpolitics.com, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html (accessed November 1, 2014). 18 OpenSecrets.org, Iowa Senate Race: Summary Data, Opensecrets.org, https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=ias2 (accessed November 1, 2014). 19 Office of the Iowa Secretary of State Michael A Mauro. 2014. "State of Iowa Offical Results Report," Iowa Secretary of State, http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2010/usreporr.pdf (accessed November 1, 2014). 5