Paul Klee: Hauptweg und Nebenwege 99 The Art of Long-Term Thinking A Bridge between Sustainability Science and Politics Bernd Klauer, Reiner Manstetten, Thomas Petersen, Johannes Schiller Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, University of Heidelberg Workshop Linking Institutions, Innovations and Sustainability, Kassel, th Feb. 0 Science-Policy Interface US-President Barack Obama Science Memorandum (White House, March 9, 009) Science and the scientific process must inform and guide decisions of my Administration on a wide range of issues, including improvement of public health, protection of the environment, increased efficiency in the use of energy and other resources, mitigation of the threat of climate change, and protection of national security. but... Scientists complain: Politicians mostly ignore our findings. Politicians deplore lack of suitable scientific advice. Page
Overview Power of judgement Immanuel Kant Three notions of time: chronos, kairos, and inherent dynamics Making inherent time accessible: the concept of stocks.. Material stocks. Durable institutions Heuristics for framing and analysing sustainability problems Page 5 Power of Judgement Scientific knowledge: But: reliable, verifiable, accessible by everyone, democratic contradicting statements & recommendations concerning complex policy issues Political Decisions appear to be arbitrary or controlled by interests. We assume that better/worse recommendations and decisions exist (external norm e.g. sustainability) Good decisions require practical knowledge, or power of judgement Page 6
Power of Judgement A medical doctor therefore, a judge or a statesman, may have in his head many admirable pathological, juridical, or political rules, in a degree that may enable him to be a profound teacher in his particular science, and yet in the application of these rules he may very possibly blunder [...] because his power of judgement has not been sufficiently exercised by examples and real practice. (Kant, Critique of Pure Reason, nd ed. (B) 787, p. 7f.) Immanuel Kant theoreticians will be found who can never in all their lives become practical, since they lack judgement. There are, for example, doctors or lawyers who did well during their schooling but who do not know how to act when asked to give advice. (Kant, On the Common Saying: That May be Correct in Theory, but it is of No Use in Practice 99, p. 6.) Page 7 Power of Judgement Power of judgement is the human capability to grasp sth. particular under some general rule or principle relates particular cases to general concepts Relates to unclear situations in which different opinions are possible. Power of Judgement incorporates two basic ingredients:. Heuristics. Intuition Heuristics : Power of Judgement proceeds reflecting: Find general rule/law/principle! Search rules ( Nature does not leap! ) bridging principles Heuristics = system of bridging principles Intuition : Reflected feeling for the subject Ability to acquire knowledge without the use of reason. Page 8
Scientific Knowledge and Power of Judgement Scientific knowledge Well defined, abstract question Solution Demonstrable Logical Method Coherence Theory Factual knowledge ( Know what ) Certain, precise Can be taught and learnt by books Non-personal Practical knowledge or Power of judgement Concrete, diffuse situations Decision No demonstration possible Heuristic method, rule of thumb Gaps in argumentation Narrative, Examples Know how Uncertain, imprecise Not teachable in abstracto, has to be exercised Personal (intuition!) Page 9 Power of Judgement & Policy-making Why can scientific knowledge (precise, deducible etc. ) not be directly applied in policy-making? Because policy problems feature ambiguous facts conflicting norms Uncertainty Contingency What is needed is anticipate interests and perspectives of opponents Incorporate diverging (scientific and other) peaces of knowledge Know how to find well-balanced decisions (what aspects to incorporate? What scientific statements relevant? Compromise between conflicting norms etc.) Power of Judgement is necessary for making good political decisions Page 0 5
Overview Power of judgement Immanuel Kant Three notions of time: chronos, kairos, and inherent dynamics Making inherent time accessible: the concept of stocks.. Material stocks. Durable institutions Heuristics for framing and analysing sustainability problems Page Sustainability and Time Sustainability notion of justice in an intertemporal space Time is central in analysis Long time horizon for decisions Science: dynamic theorizing, prognosis, scenario techniques etc. Practical decision-making / politics: Power of judgment Bridging principle for capturing time is needed Page 6
Sustainability and Time Three notions of time. Chronos Homogeneous concept of time Time bar yardstick for measurement Basis of (natural) scientific analysis. Kairos Common in practical action (decision-making etc.) Right time to act (modern: window of opportunity ) How is it possible to recognise the Kairos?. Inherent time, inherent dynamics (Eigendynamik) Natural course of things e.g. life span of an animal, typical duration of a process Temporal boundary conditions for action Page Sustainability and Time Sustainability notion of justice in an intertemporal space Time is central in analysis Long time horizon for decisions Science: dynamic theorising, prognosis, scenario techniques etc. Practical decision-making / politics: Power of judgement Bridging principle for capturing inherent time is needed Need for heuristic Page 7
Overview Power of judgement Immanuel Kant Three notions of time: chronos, kairos, and inherent dynamics Making inherent time accessible: the concept of stocks.. Material stocks. Durable institutions Heuristics for framing and analysing sustainability problems Page 5 Making Inherent Time Visible: Material Stocks Examples:- Inventory of coal or oil in region - Population of wolfs in British Columbia - Inhabitants in Berlin - Machinery: Power stations in Germany - Electric cars and charging stations Notion of material stocks, based on Faber et al. (005) Object: set of elements attribute: red that feature a common characteristic. ( attribute of membership ) t 0 t 0 + t 0 + t Durability measured against a time scale of observation τ ( chronos) Criterion: emptiness / non-emptiness of the set Definition: Stock Set that is permanent. stock no stock Page 6 8
Immaterial Stocks - Durable Institutions Not only material entities are durable and resist against changes. Institutions can be durable Williamson (000) four levels of institutions: type / level example inherent time. institutions of embeddedness culture and norms centuries to millennia. high-level formal rules constitutions, laws, decades to centuries property rights. institutions of governance governance structures, years contractual relations (min! transaction costs). prices and quantities individual contracts continuously Page 7 Durability of Institutions: Gehlen s Theory Why should institutions be durable? German philosopher Arnold Gehlen (90-976) Institutions match an anthropological want for stability (Human individual is erratic interest in steady environment Institutions: periodic recurrence of the same) Basic conception of human acting underlying institutions: Habitual acting (tools handling routines means become their own end) Regularity due to the underlying rules Recurring action itself becomes its motive: Institutions may shape motives and goals of human beings Central characteristic: durability Page 8 9
Durability of Institutions: Gehlen s Theory Human want for institutions: release from continuous need to choose and reflect on choice No permanent need for individual decision-making Reduced uncertainty concerning the action of others Background fulfillment of certain wants (partner social contacts) Gehlen: Institutions may be persistent (even when ineffective ); shape motives for acting Page 9 Overview Power of judgement Immanuel Kant Three notions of time: chronos, kairos, and inherent dynamics Making inherent time accessible: the concept of stocks.. Material stocks. Durable institutions Heuristics for framing and analysing sustainability problems Page 0 0
The Art of Long-Term Thinking: Outline for a Sustainability Heuristics Political action needs power of judgement Sustainability needs time Power of judgement needs bridging principles Time Chronos Inherent times of stocks Kairos t Material stocks Stocks relates to time (bridging principles of time) Immaterial stocks Durable institutions Heuristics consists of bridging principles to. identify relevant stocks. sketch their inherent time. integrate to overall picture and identify kairos Page The Art of Long-Term Thinking: Outline for a Sustainability Heuristics Thank you for your attention. Page