THE RATIO OF POWER AND THE STATE OF MIND OF THE FRENCH PEOPLE 10 DAYS BEFORE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION S 1st ROUND 14 April 2017 1 1 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
TECHNICAL NOTE SAMPLE 1 509 persons registered on the electoral rolls, constituting a representative national sample of the French population aged 18 years and over. DATES OF FIELDWORK From 12 to 13 April 2017. Online interview. METHODOLOGY Quota method: gender, age, individual's occupation, region, urban/rural. As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO 20252 "Market research, social studies and opinion". 2 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Participation index Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote in the first round of this presidential election? SYMPATHIZERS PARTICIPATION 66% Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 April (=) Note: 66% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the Presidential Election, 72% of PS sympathizers, 74% of LR sympathizers, 68% of FN sympathizers, etc. 3 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Participation index- gender, age, interviewee s occupation PARTICIPATION 66% 66% GENDER 66% 58% Less than 35 INTERVIEWEE S OCCUPATION AGE 67% From 35 to 59 71% 60 + 71% 67% 64% 62% 71% Senior Executive Intermediate Employee Worker Retired Profession 4 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting Intention 1 ST ROUND 5 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting intention 1st Round Base : Certain to vote, stated intention Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If the choice is between the following candidates? Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 April -0,5 +0,5 +1,5-0,5-2 +1 +1 (=) -2 +0,5 +0,5 Nathalie Arthaud Philippe Poutou Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Emmanuel Macron Jean Lassalle François Fillon Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Marine Le Pen Jacques Cheminade People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 10% 6 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Likelihood to change mind Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind? Base : Certain to go to vote DEFINITE 66% Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 April +6 DEFINITE Could vote for J-L Mélenchon Could vote for B. Hamon ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTION CAN STILL CHANGE 66 34 57 43 Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 april DEFINITE +6 +14 34% Could vote for E. Macron 68 32 +13 NOT DECIDED Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 April -6 Could vote for F. Fillon Voterait pour M. Le Pen 80 85 20 15 +1 +6 7 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Question: Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind? 33 74 61 53 39 7-12 Feb. Cevipof- Le Monde 76 62 56 41 42 1er- 5 March FJJ-Cevipof- Le Monde EVOLUTION «DEFINITE CHOICE» % 78 68 60 52 47 14-15 March Cevipof- Le Monde 84 82 60 53 48 25-27 March France Télévisions-Radio France 82 75 61 60 52 31 mars-2 April FJJ-Cevipof-Le Monde 79 79 60 55 43 7-9 avril France Télévisions-Radio France 85 80 68 66 57 12-13 April Le Monde Base : Certain to go to vote 8 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
VOTING INTENTION 2 nd ROUND 9 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting intention 2 nd Round Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If the choice is between the following candidates? REPORTED VOICE Evolution 12-13 April vs 7-9 April +1-1 Voting intention 1st round Not decided Total J-L. Mélenchon 51% 5% 44% 100% Benoît Hamon 63% 3% 34% 100% Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen François Fillon 48% 22% 30% 100% People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 24% 10 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting intention 2 nd Round Hypothesis E. Macron versus F. Fillon Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If the choice is between the following candidates? REPORTED VOICE Voting intention 1st round Not decided Total J-L. Mélenchon 52% 1% 47% 100% Benoît Hamon 60% - 40% 100% Emmanuel Macron François Fillon François Fillon 14% 16% 70% 100% People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 37% 11 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting intention 2 nd Round Hypothesis F. Fillon versus M. Le Pen Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If the choice is between the following candidates? REPORTED VOICE Voting intention 1st round Not decided Total J-L. Mélenchon 18% 9% 73% 100% Benoît Hamon 16% 4% 80% 100% François Fillon Marine Le Pen François Fillon 43% 6% 51% 100% People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 39% 12 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
Voting intention 2 nd Round Hypothesis J-L. Mélenchon versus F. Fillon Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If the choice is between the following candidates? REPORTED VOICE Voting intention 1st round Not decided Total J-L. Mélenchon 71% 1% 28% 100% Benoît Hamon 47% 24% 29% 100% Jean-Luc Mélenchon François Fillon François Fillon 25% 24% 59% 100% People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 30% 13 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL
14 14 Ipsos. 2017 PRESIDENTIAL