Population Growth & Its impacts PAD 6838/ 7865 Lecture 3
Organization World Population Growth Growth pattern: Urban and rural Population growth and poverty Solutions to population growth
World Population Growth First Billion: 1804 Second Billion: 1927 (123 yrs) Third Billion: 1960 (33 yrs) Fourth Billion: 1974 (14 yrs) Fifth Billion: 1987 (13 yrs) Sixth Billion: 1999 (11 yrs)
Spiraling world population Source: Time, Nov 22nd 2010
Population distribution, 1750-2150
Population growth by Region 1800 1900 2000 2050 90% of population growth is in the developing world
Global Population Density Source: World Resources Institute
Sources of Population growth: Natural Demographic transition Transitions in population growth, essentially based on mortality (i.e. death). Three broad stages: High death rate and high birth rate. Low death rate and high birth rate. Low death rate and low birth rate. Epidemiological transition Change in the morbidity profile from acute, infectious, and parasitic diseases (eg plague, smallpox, and cholera) to non-communicable, degenerative, and chronic diseases (eg cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and neoplasms). Population momentum Refers to the tendency for a rapidly growing population to keep on growing, even after the implementation of policies designed to halt population growth. Past high rates of reproduction give momentum to population growth because they resulted in a large number of women who are now of reproductive age (15 44).
Sources of Pop. Growth Migration: geographical distribution International Migration from low to middle & high income countries (reverse colonization?) Employment based migration Intra-national Rural to Urban Urban to Urban Circulators Why migrate? Lure of big city Job opportunities (pull factor) Lack of rural opportunities (push factor)
International migration Country regions Total (000s) % age Annual net rate (/ 1000) Remittan ce (%GDP) 2010 2010 2007 World 213,944 3.1 0.7 Developed 127,711 10.3 2.2 0.4 Less developed 86,232 1.5-0.5 1.9 Least developed 11 531 1.3-0.4 5.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 18 007 2.1-0.4 2.5 Africa 19 263 1.9-0.5 3.1
International Migration, 2010 (Top 10) Highest percentage of international migrants Qatar UAE Kuwait Jordan Palestine Singapore Israel Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Oman 87% 70% 69% 46% 44% 41% 40% 39% 28% 28% Largest number of international migrants, (millions) USA Russia Germany Saudi Arabia Canada France UK Spain India Ukraine 42.8 12.3 10.8 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.4 5.3
International migrants, 2010 (000s)
Migrants as %age of total popln, 2010
Urbanization Population, in billions
Urbanization level Urbanization Level: Latin America > Asia > Africa [Exception: China and India] Urbanization Rate: Africa, Asia > Latin America
Mega Cities MOST MEGACITIES ARE LOCATED IN THIRD WORLD
Largest Cities in the World, 1950-2000 1950 1980 2000 New York 12.3 Tokyo 16.9 Mexico City 25.6 London 10.4 New York 15.6 Sao Paolo 22.1 Rhine-Ruhr 6.9 Mexico City 14.5 Tokyo 19 Tokyo 6.7 Sao Paolo 12.1 Shanghai 17 Shanghai 5.8 Shanghai 11.7 New York 16.8 Paris 5.5 Buenos Aires 9.9 Calcutta 15.7 Buenos Aires 5.3 Los Angeles 9.5 Bombay 15.4 Chicago 4.9 Calcutta 9 Beijing 14 Moscow 4.8 Beijing 9 Los Angeles 13.9 Calcutta 4.6 Rio de Janeiro 8.8 Jakarta 13.7 Los Angeles 4 Paris 8.5 Delhi 13.2 Osaka 3.8 Osaka 8.3 Buenos Aires 12.9 Milan 3.6 Seoul 8.3 Lagos 12.9 Bombay 3 Moscow 8.2 Tianjin 12.7 Mexico City 3 Bombay 8.1 Seoul 12.7
Negative effects of Pop. Growth Poverty trap (Food Problem?) Famines are fewer, though Collier s traps: Conflict trap; natural resource trap; landlock; bad governance Environmental Consequences: Carrying capacity? Inadequate infrastructure: Sanitation; Water; Public Health; Social services (Urban Slums) Health problem: Malnutrition; Effects of overcrowding Lower standard of living
Population Growth and Poverty Malthus vs Condorcet Malthus: Population will outgrow food supplies (geometric growth vs arithmetic growth) Condorcet: Reasoned human action will reduce population, reduce waste, and maintain food supply Paul Ehrlich vs Julian Simon Ehrlich: Population is outgrowing earth s sustainable capacity (carrying capacity) Simon: Population growth contributes to economic development; Need for Individual Economic Freedom
Poverty Measures Absolute vs relative poverty Extreme (absolute) poverty: Households cannot meet basic needs Moderate poverty: Households basic needs are met, but just barely Relative poverty: Households lack access to cultural goods, recreation, quality health care, education, and other prerequisites for upward mobility World Bank s measures Extreme poverty (US $1.25 @ 2005 PPP /day/person) Moderate poverty (US $1.25 - $2 @PPP /day/person) Country level poverty thresholds differ
Why nations remain poor? Jeffrey Sachs (The end of poverty) Poverty trap Physical geography Fiscal trap Governance failures Cultural Barriers Geopolitics Lack of Innovation Demographic trap
Population growth and Environment Increased consumption due to population growth and increasing richness Increased Energy consumption Environmental Pollution (Air, Water, Soil) World climate change [CO2 emission] Largest emitters Emission by category
Population Growth: Solutions Coercive Government programs to reduce population 1 or 2 children per family (Dis)incentives for large families Cooperation Voluntary programs Female literacy Economic Development Grow the pie, not re-distribute it Distribute fortune or misery? Innovation and new economy
Population Growth: Solutions Social Development Better education, health facilities, gender equity) Family Planning Programs Sterilization, Promotion of contraceptive use Population growth: Demographic trap or demographic dividend? Should population growth be controlled? http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/module_byid.html?s=news01n30cfqb91
Religion
Religion